Article: Are The Twins Suddenly Sellers?

[KirbyDome89]

 

Yes, yes they should.

If this FO is making franchise altering decisions based on only 3 games then this team is in serious trouble. There is a lot more that should (and certainly does) go into deciding whether to buy or sell. 

[BK432]

 

If you are buying when you should be selling then you are fooled.

 

I'm fine if they can't find any good deals for selling (don't sell for the sake of selling) but you should not be buying.

 

I don't think this is true. The human element actually exists, and if a team is within sniffing distance of a playoff spot, throwing the locker room a bone of a pitcher that is halfway decent for a lottery ticket that MAYBE you can cash in in 5 years is probably a good thing to do. I know as enlightened fans we can sit back and say selling was always the right thing to do, but as GM and Chief Baseball Officer, Falvey and Levine have other concerns they need to keep in mind.

 

I'm fairly confident in saying they were not fooled; I think they are pretty savvy and understand their 2017 team well. Rather, they were taking a small step to add a piece to help the team JUSTINCASE, but also a piece they could resell for a similar piece (or better, if they take on salary).

[FlauerPauer]

I personally think the Twins should sell high on Santana if you get an offer you cant refuse.  He's regressed pretty hard since the beginning of the year.  He still goes deep in games, and I think trading him would mean selling on the season, but if you can get a team to overpay for him with a package that includes a young up and coming starter, I don't know how you say "no."

[prouster]

 

If you are buying when you should be selling then you are fooled.

 

I'm fine if they can't find any good deals for selling (don't sell for the sake of selling) but you should not be buying.

 

"Buying" and "selling" aren't mutually exclusive. Acquiring Garcia doesn't prevent them from dealing Santana/Dozier/Kintzler. They also suddenly find themselves with another Major League arm that we know other teams are interested in—there's nothing stopping them from dealing Garcia. I think it's perfectly reasonable to try and improve the immediate roster and try to acquire assets for the future.

[Vanimal46]

 

Lots of people are excited to flip vets for prospects; I too am quite curious as to who may go and who may come.

 

However I hope everyone can recognize that it pains other folks to throw in the towel on the 2017 season regardless of how one sees the Twins odds at this point. It might be helpful if we treat whatever transpires more like a glass-half-full situation and not like a gigantic celebration.

 

Just throwing it out there as the trade deadline is dividing us a bit even though the big picture is the same for us all: World Series trophies.

 

Thank you for saying this. 

[wsnydes]

 

Agree. It was a little cynical. I'm just wondering what the logical conclusion to this is, or what the discussion looks like a year from now, if the Twins are in the same position, maybe 10 games over 500 but still in third place and six games out like this season. More selling? Fire Falvey?

To me, some of this depends on what was done between now and then.  If they're 10 games over .500 that likely means that pitching has improved one way or another.  That's probably a time to buy in most cases.  The logical conclusion is that you sell assets now to acquire younger, controllable assets that help down the road.  Coupled with the talent they do have in the minors, it's a means to grow the franchise.  The key is to hit on the acquisitions and the timing needs to be right to produce a winner.  To me, the latter may end up being the bigger problem.  By the time they get enough quality pitching, the core of position players may become unaffordable.  Of course, if they never do acquire the quality pitching, it's a moot point.  That is why some of us have been pining to trade the vets for at least a full season now.  Doing it correctly could result in an extended legitimate window similar to what the Royals were able to accomplish or what the Giants and Cardinals have been able to do for the better part of a decade.

Edited July 27, 2017 by wsnydes

[howeda7]

2017: sell Santana, Dozier and Kintzler. Twins are out of it. No brainer.

 

2018: sell Rosario, Kepler, and Taylor Rogers. Twins are still not on the level of the best teams, these guys are valuable controllable assets, and you might as well get some good young pitching prospects for them.

 

2019: sell the big boys: Berrios, Buxton and Sano, before they start making the real money. Everyone knows the small market Twins won't be able to afford those big contracts, what with that bad television deal and attendance figures unexpectedly down.

 

Compete in 2020!

Right? I swear some folks must put their 70 year old mother in the home the first time she loses her car keys.

 

We were 0.5 game out one week ago and now we're talking about 2019?

 

I would not trade anyone who can help in 2018 unless what they get back offsets it or is overwhelming. If 2018 doesn't pan out we can trade Dozier and Santana a year from now. Kintzler/Garcia are the only ones I'd definitely move. But if anything of value can be had for Grossman or Castro I'd move them too.

Edited July 27, 2017 by howeda7

[KidBro]

This is a little off topic, but think it would still be relevant to the Twins Post Season aspirations.  Has the FO said, or is there any speculation that Berrios is on an innings restriction this year?  He had 170 IP last year, two thirds of those innings were in Rochester.  He's currently at 123.1 this year, w/ just over two thirds of those being w/ the Twins this season.  10-11 more starts at 6-7 innings puts him at 180-195ish.  Zero concern thru mid September, but what if the Twins are in the hunt in late Sept or even into Oct.  Would the FO let Berrios surpass 200 IP this season?

[Otto von Ballpark]

While Berrios didn't throw many innings in MLB last year, I think he threw a lot of pitches. I would guess there is no restriction on his innings this year, unless his performance seriously fades... in which case it's probably a moot point.

[Loosey]

 

LOL...I have been saying this all season long.  It did not take a rocket scientist to figure out that the early record was a mirage built upon some unsustainable performances (Sano > 1.000 OPS and Santan < 1.00 ERA).  I think that believing this has caused the FO to make a lot of errors.

 

At the same time, I will also state taht the errors are not big ones and nor do I believe that the team should be in "Sell, Sell, Sell" mode just to sell.  I think that we are getting close to putting together a team that can compete, we just need to figure out a handful of holes.  So, if the offer is not good enough, dont move Dozier or Santana who can help you next season compete for a true division crown.

 

At the same time, some of the dead wood needs to be discarded and prospects need to be brought up immediately (they should have been brought up 95 games ago) to demonstrate their fitness to play at this level.  

 

Garver needs to remplace Giminez.  The older relief pitchers need to be DFAd and younger guys brought up and given the opportunities:  DJ Baxendale from AAA and Luke Bard from AA for sure.  Two AAA starters, David Hurlbut and Aaron Siegers need to be given the chance to see if they can be 4th/5th starters for the Twins.

 

By doing these initial steps we can see if any of those guys can help this team going forward.  Otherwise, we can address the needs in the offseason.  Either way, it needs to happen now.

I don't know if the FO has made errors yet.  The team is not in bubble. The unfortunate part of buying and selling for fans like most of us on TwinsDaily is the majority of the fans are not as invested in the team and by sheer numbers spend more money on them.  By selling early these fans are alienated and may not look at the big picture and understand the plans.

 

If baseball was played free of that, this team would have been sold for younger parts weeks ago. 

[caninatl04]

 

I agree with moving Ervin Santana. I would also be marketing Jason Castro, Brandon Kintzler, and Brian Dozier also, because those are the veterans with the most value.

 

We should be one stop shopping with the Brewers, looking to pair a package of Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana to them maybe even Jason Castro, for a prospect package of 5  players.

Should we throw Jennifer Garner in? (wink)

[bighat]

In 2012 we heard fans say "Don't worry, just wait a coupla years and we'll be good in 2014".  In 2013 we said "Stockpile talent, it's 2015 or bust"!  In 2014 we started working on our "2016 World Championship" t-shirts...I don't like 2-year plans. When you plan for longer than 2 years down the road, there are just so many wildcard factors that come into play. Injuries, guys don't pan out, current players who are part of that plan leave in free agency, etc.

 

It's kinda like life. The future doesn't exist, the past is just a memory. If you use the present to dwell on either one, you're wasting the only true reality you have.

 

Enough of this "in 2 years we'll be good" crap. I just want the front office to make the best possible moves to make the Twins the best possible team as soon as possible. If that means trading Dozier for a guy who can pitch, that's fine. If we trade Santana for a guy who can make contact with 2-strikes, that's great. But don't give me some single-A prospect with a high upside who might show up in 5 years. Get someone that can help this team make actual progress - pronto. If the Twins sell, I want young players with at least a bit of MLB experience or those who are knocking on the door.

[Doomtints]

Personally, I would have waited until the conclusion of the LA series before making moves. Because, in reality, nothing has changed between this week and last week with this team. If the Twins surprised people and took some games from the Dodgers, then as management you have to take them seriously. But if they kept on as before, losing to the tough teams, then the strategy is different. The front office made moves before gauging the team, they simply looked at the standings.

 

Moving Santana makes some sense provided the return is right. Garcia, same. However, the elephant in the room, as always, is Dozier. I think you have to try to keep Kintzler if possible.

[drjim]

 

Personally, I would have waited until the conclusion of the LA series before making moves. Because, in reality, nothing has changed between this week and last week with this team. If the Twins surprised people and took some games from the Dodgers, then as management you have to take them seriously. But if they kept on as before, losing to the tough teams, then the strategy is different.

 

Moving Santana makes some sense provided the return is right. Garcia, same. However, the elephant in the room, as always, is Dozier. I think you have to try to keep Kintzler if possible.

 

I don't think anything has really changed since the all star break except Cleveland and Kansas City were hot while the Twins ran into the Dodgers. This isn't going to last two months. Twins actually have a pretty soft stretch over the next several weeks.

 

I would still add a cheap reliever in the next couple of days and roll with it. If they are hanging around in mid-August they can probably add another reliever and DH in the waiver period.

[Doomtints]

 

I don't think anything has really changed since the all star break except Cleveland and Kansas City were hot while the Twins ran into the Dodgers. This isn't going to last two months. Twins actually have a pretty soft stretch over the next several weeks.

 

I would still add a cheap reliever in the next couple of days and roll with it. If they are hanging around in mid-August they can probably add another reliever and DH in the waiver period.

 

The Twins aren't going to face any bad team in the playoffs, probably. But yes, simply reaching the playoffs would do wonders for next year's ticket sales considering recent Twins history.

[Craig Arko]

Listening to offers:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/mlb-trade-rumors-ervin-santana-twins-jaime-garcia.html

 

I won't be entirely surprised if Garcia never pitches for the Twins.

[bighat]

The first player I'd sell would be Dozier. I'd be more interested in keeping Santana. He's our best piece, but I think you keep him for that reason. I really like Ervin and can't imagine our pitching staff without him...can you imagine the carnage going into next year with Berrios, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes and Mejia? The Twins don't sign good free agent pitchers typically, so they'd likely try to convince us that this was OK and the nightmare would continue. Keep Santana. Trade Dozier and get someone to slot in behind Santana in the rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't think anything has really changed since the all star break except Cleveland and Kansas City were hot while the Twins ran into the Dodgers. This isn't going to last two months. Twins actually have a pretty soft stretch over the next several weeks.

 

I would still add a cheap reliever in the next couple of days and roll with it. If they are hanging around in mid-August they can probably add another reliever and DH in the waiver period.

 

to get to 86 wins, they need to go what?

 

37 and 25? 

 

That seems unlikely, and I don't know if 86 wins gets you into the playoffs anyway.

[drjim]

 

to get to 86 wins, they need to go what?

 

37 and 25? 

 

That seems unlikely, and I don't know if 86 wins gets you into the playoffs anyway.

 

The bigger problem is they have to jump two teams 4/4.5 games ahead of them, with another team in between. It's certainly a tall order.

[laloesch]

 

Right? I swear some folks must put their 70 year old mother in the home the first time she loses her car keys.

We were 0.5 game out one week ago and now we're talking about 2019?

I would not trade anyone who can help in 2018 unless what they get back offsets it or is overwhelming. If 2018 doesn't pan out we can trade Dozier and Santana a year from now. Kintzler/Garcia are the only ones I'd definitely move. But if anything of value can be had for Grossman or Castro I'd move them too.

 

Yes, but one year closer to FA for both and decreased value.  Plus next season both Kintzler and Garcia are gone.  So in a way the Twins are kinda in a conundrum.  Do they believe these guys are building blocks or aging veterans that are sell-able assets?  

 

What's certain?  Without more pitching this team ain't gonna win anything.  Sure they might end up near .500, but that's not gonna get this team into the playoffs unless they get lucky.  We've already seen how they perform against quality opponents such as the Dodgers and the results aren't too good.  Two.  When Sano is not in the lineup this team STRUGGLES offensively, they need to find someone else in the lineup that can carry this team offensively.    

 

So...do they choose to stand pat and hang on to aging assets such as Dozier, Santana, etc, while feigning competitiveness to the fans or get off the pot and sell.  In my opinion you can only stink up the joint so long before you should start producing something.  This multi year limbo this team is stuck in is a result of cheap ownership and a front office in denial and not committing 100% to a rebuild when they should have years ago.  Look at Houston they were TERRIBLE from 2011 to 2014, but GUESS WHAT?!? They chose to rebuild and traded off their sell-able assets that weren't part of the long term plans in order to bring back prospects.  

 

This isn't rocket science.   

Edited July 27, 2017 by laloesch

[Otto von Ballpark]

Listening to offers:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/mlb-trade-rumors-ervin-santana-twins-jaime-garcia.html

 

I won't be entirely surprised if Garcia never pitches for the Twins.

Well, Garcia is scheduled to pitch tomorrow night. Even if we are listening to offers on him, I'd be pretty surprised if got something done that quickly.

 

Tomorrow's game is in Oakland, though, so maybe you could say "never pitches for the Twins in Minneapolis."

[AlwaysinModeration]

If they do it right, they could sell off the pieces acquired this deadline by 2020. Really restock the farm system.

I think you are doing this right, at least in terms of responding with just the right amount of tongue in cheek to the tongue in cheek.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Plus next season both Kintzler and Garcia are gone.  

No doubt this will be a bittersweet moment, considering everything that Garcia has done for us

[drjim]

No doubt this will be a bittersweet moment, considering everything that Garcia has done for us

I'm personally hoping for a trade before he pitches. Would be amazing.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Yes, but one year closer to FA for both and decreased value.  Plus next season both Kintzler and Garcia are gone.  So in a way the Twins are kinda in a conundrum.  Do they believe these guys are building blocks or aging veterans that are sell-able assets?  

 

What's certain?  Without more pitching this team ain't gonna win anything.  Sure they might end up near .500, but that's not gonna get this team into the playoffs unless they get lucky.  We've already seen how they perform against quality opponents such as the Dodgers and the results aren't too good.  Two.  When Sano is not in the lineup this team STRUGGLES offensively, they need to find someone else in the lineup that can carry this team offensively.    

 

So...do they choose to stand pat and hang on to aging assets such as Dozier, Santana, etc, while feigning competitiveness to the fans or get off the pot and sell.  In my opinion you can only stink up the joint so long before you should start producing something.  This multi year limbo this team is stuck in is a result of cheap ownership and a front office in denial and not committing 100% to a rebuild when they should have years ago.  Look at Houston they were TERRIBLE from 2011 to 2014, but GUESS WHAT?!? They chose to rebuild and traded off their sell-able assets that weren't part of the long term plans in order to bring back prospects.  

 

This isn't rocket science.   

Fair take, I'm just not sure at the deadline that they can deal for that silver bullet we are all hoping for.

 

Don't be surprised if none of these guys are traded, though it seems like people think Kintzler is the most likely. That makes sense. He can be signed back in the offseason if he has some desire to pitch here going forward. 

Edited July 27, 2017 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This is a little off topic, but think it would still be relevant to the Twins Post Season aspirations.  Has the FO said, or is there any speculation that Berrios is on an innings restriction this year?  He had 170 IP last year, two thirds of those innings were in Rochester.  He's currently at 123.1 this year, w/ just over two thirds of those being w/ the Twins this season.  10-11 more starts at 6-7 innings puts him at 180-195ish.  Zero concern thru mid September, but what if the Twins are in the hunt in late Sept or even into Oct.  Would the FO let Berrios surpass 200 IP this season?

 

This should not be a problem.  It would be a normal increase.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'm personally hoping for a trade before he pitches. Would be amazing.

Actually, I think it is fairly common to trade a guy who you recently traded for. There is no allegiance there. Plus, if Falvey gets a better prospect back than Ynoa...well done!

[Monkeypaws]

Me little thoughts on the matter:

 

•Falvey took some guff on this site for not adding pitching during the offseason. Why? Cuz the pitching has been well below average. So we wanna dump the few effective guys we have and start from zero, again? Good pitching is hard  to find. Stockpile that stuff.

 

•MLB isn't the NHL, where you can draft Connor McDavid and become a competitor overnight. Tanking is a dubious strategy at best. Unless you want the KC or Pittsburgh 20 year rebuild. 

 

•People wanna trade guys like Dozier, ESan, Kintzler, at peak value, because they see flaws: age, contract issues, regression/unsustainability.... Somehow, other teams scouts seem to miss all this. Any prospect coming back will likely have some major hole in their game as well.

 

•Keep good players. Add more. I wasn't aware there was a salary cap in baseball. Trading Dozier or ESan would make sense if there was a cheaper option of similar ability to take their place. People thought Polanco would slot right in to Dozier's spot - the guy with a lower batting average than Buxton. 

 

•Garver and Gordon - ready, or nearly soi. So if EE could nab a Meija, yes. Giminez, never know. But you are selling from a position of of depth. Selling pitching, for this team? 

 

•Attendance is in free fall - even with a whiff of respectability. Most of the vaunted top prospects are on the club. Build a culture of winning dammit.

 

 

 

 

[adjacent]

•Falvey took some guff on this site for not adding pitching during the offseason. Why? Cuz the pitching has been well below average. So we wanna dump the few effective guys we have and start from zero, again? Good pitching is hard  to find. Stockpile that stuff.

•MLB isn't the NHL, where you can draft Connor McDavid and become a competitor overnight. Tanking is a dubious strategy at best. Unless you want the KC or Pittsburgh 20 year rebuild.

•People wanna trade guys like Dozier, ESan, Kintzler, at peak value, because they see flaws: age, contract issues, regression/unsustainability.... Somehow, other teams scouts seem to miss all this. Any prospect coming back will likely have some major hole in their game as well.

•Keep good players. Add more. I wasn't aware there was a salary cap in baseball. Trading Dozier or ESan would make sense if there was a cheaper option of similar ability to take their place. People thought Polanco would slot right in to Dozier's spot - the guy with a lower batting average than Buxton.

•Garver and Gordon - ready, or nearly soi. So if EE could nab a Meija, yes. Giminez, never know. But you are selling from a position of of depth. Selling pitching, for this team?

•Attendance is in free fall - even with a whiff of respectability. Most of the vaunted top prospects are on the club. Build a culture of winning dammit.



Agreed 100%. I think we are over-reacting to getting swept by the best and hottest team in baseball right now. And these were close games, it is not that they destroy the Twins like the Astros did in some games. The rest of the schedule is pretty soft from now on. Let's see what happens.
 

[Mr. Brooks]

This team needs 7th and 8th inning guys at least a group of three that can hold up. This team also needs two more competent starting pitchers. Berrios and Meija are the only two young guy's that appear to be set. I would not be opposed to keeping Ervin Santana but I am nervous about age, and health all of the things that can happen to a mid 30's guy.

Dozier has been on this team for a long time without going to the playoffs. Yes he is a good player, but I think he is the one asset that can bring back a core of guys like Chuck Knoblauch did. It's not that I am down on Dozier, heck he is hitting about as well and doing the things we all hoped for going the opposite way and beating the shift. He just seems like he is the one asset that can bring back starting pitching that can bring something back in value that may develop in to something. I think you can backfill with Escobar in Doziers spot and survive this season until one of the younger middle infielders is ready.

 

The Twins have been at there best when they can bring back nearly ready starting pitching for the rotation, from trading one aging star.

I just don't think Dozier will ever have more value in returns. It's a gamble clearly, but he is the best pocket hand we have for hole cards.

Would it be a blow to this season, and blow a hole in it, surely it would, but I guess I would like to gamble some on the unknown and the future of going for it. They clearly shopped him to the Dodgers this offseason and blinked because there was no other market. There seems to be market for him now even a few surprise one's like the Brewers and Rockies. We are not going to have a core of Kepler, Buxton, Sano, a Vargas, or Granite, or Berrios, Meija, that can go forward and bang with the big boy's unless we supplement it with more pieces.

 

The new core of guys need help they cannot get to the series on there own, they are short some pieces. We can all see that. To me you have to supplement with more near ready starters and try and pull a couple rabbits out of the hat. Will that gamble pay off, only time would tell. It's all probably moot anyway's just because I'm in a move some people camp doesn't mean that I am right.

 

Maybe they stand pat, I could live with that, and the team actually turns it on during a weaker stretch of the schedule. It's not like the Dodgers or even the Sox shellacked this team, the Twins were competitive, but the wart or pimple of late inning bullpen help let the team down. The only way you move Dozier and Santana is if you get premium quality back, otherwise moving them would be a waste of time and effort. This is the time of the year, where you really hope investing in scouts and statistical analysis in the front office pays off.

I disagree on Dozier.

I can't find a contending team for which he'd be much of an upgrade for.

Our shot to trade him was off his career year this last off-season.

I think that ship has sailed.