Article: Are The Twins Suddenly Sellers?

[Parker Hageman]

That’s what Jon Morosi’s sources have told him.

 

According to the MLB Network reporter, the Minnesota Twins are contemplating unloading several key players if the current skid continues up until Monday’s trade deadline.Morosi says the Twins could possibly shop the recently acquired Jaime Garcia, who is scheduled to start Friday in Oakland, as well as veteran starter Ervin Santana.

 

 

Garcia is a free agent at the end of the season and is owed an estimated $4.5 million on the remainder of the year. The Twins surrendered very little in Huescar Ynoa in order to get Garcia from the Braves so the team would likely have to assume some of his salary if they want to gain a superior prospect.

 

Meanwhile, the 34-year-old Santana is owed another $13.5 million for 2018 and has a $14 million option for 2019 (or a $1 million buyout). Given the fact that he has pitched extremely consistent in addition to leading baseball in complete games and shutouts, Santana’s return would be significantly higher.

 

Furthermore, if the Twins are willing to part ways with Santana and Garcia, it almost certainly means All Star closer Brandon Kintzler, who is a free agent at the season’s end, will also be on the trading block as well.

 

The Twins have a three-game series starting tomorrow in Oakland and the future whereabouts of those pitchers sounds like it is contingent on the performance.

 

Stay tuned.

 

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[Willihammer]

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[SarasotaBill]

Falvey got fooled by first half since the Indians and Royals under performed.

Only need to look at runs differential and Astros/RedSox and understand 2017 is not the Twins year to go for it.

Patience is tough after so many dreadful years but the GM has to understand the percentages of roster peak performance vs. the rest of the league.

The Twins are set up for 2019 (assuming Gonsalves and Romero have growing pains next year like Berrios did last year) and beyond.

2019 Starters:

Berrios

Free Agent Ace

Mejia

Gonsalves

Romero

 

Back Ups - May, Stewart, Jorge, Thorpe, Rodriguez

[KirbyDome89]

They shouldn't suddenly sell after a 3 game sweep in LA, just as they shouldn't remove themselves from the sales floor if they win 2 or 3 in Oakland.

 

I'm pro sell, but I'm also not entirely opposed to buying if they're willing to get long term pieces for the pitching staff. I think the worst thing they can do is exactly what they've done so far; add a rental pitcher and nothing else. Either sell veteran players at peak value, or sell of some of the younger guys to bring in pitching help, but enough of the half in half out stuff. I don't have much faith in them acquiring much help at this point, so hopefully they buck the trend of the past and actually move Ervin and/or Kintzler rather than watch their value depress to preseason levels. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The Twins took on Garcia's salary in the trade. Might the Twins keep that salary (and some/most/all of Santana's salary to increase value of prospect return? Would it actually accomplish that?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Ervin Santana has pitched extremely consistent?

[wsnydes]

This FO is definitely in a tough spot.  Some of it is of their own making a serious effort to improve the pitching staff, but much of it was inherited.  It's difficult to tell the team and the fans that they need to be patient after such a brutal stretch, but caution is still called for to not veer too far off of the long term plan set in motion during the last offseason.

 

I'm exceedingly tired of this non-rebuild and half trying to win stuff.  Even more tired of it than the losing.  Selling off what few assets they do have is at least a definitive step in a direction instead of continuing to tread water as has been the case over the last half decade.  I've been saying this all year, but it's time to let some of the near ready guys go through their lumps this season so they can work on specifics during the offseason and come into next season more prepared.

 

Any buying they do should be for long term gain.  If an opportunity arises to get a controllable player, pitcher in particular, I have no issue dealing some of the minor league depth to get it done.

[jimbo92107]

It certainly is touch and go. What convinces me isn't so much the team's chances to make the playoffs (diminishing), but the stark reality of the two best teams in baseball: the Astros and the Dodgers. This year's Twins have just about zero chance to compete at that level. Houston was the first shock, when we saw what buzz saws their batting order was. Good pitching, too. But then came the Dodgers. Buzz saws with a little nitro in the gasoline. And we didn't even see their best pitcher. 

 

Yeah, if the plummet continues for the next few days, sell. Sell all the guys that definitely won't be here in 2019, and that could include either or both catchers, Hughes, Santiago, Santana, Dozier, etc. Make room for the late season experiments. The time is nigh for Gonsalves, Gordon, Garver, Romero, Stewart, Jorge, Rosario, Curtiss, Reed, and some of the lesser prospects that are doing well in AAA. 

[gman]

I agree with most of whats been previously stated. I think the plan the whole year should have been sale at peak. Maybe this is peak season. Hopefully they have been setting up trade possibilities long before now and those trade partners have not gone somewhere else.

[drock2190]

Not sure why the Twins should be buying long term assests at the trade deadline. Aren't those going to a bit overpriced compared to the rest of the year?  

 

I heard the Brewers were looking for a 2nd baseman. Food for thought.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2017: sell Santana, Dozier and Kintzler. Twins are out of it. No brainer.

 

2018: sell Rosario, Kepler, and Taylor Rogers. Twins are still not on the level of the best teams, these guys are valuable controllable assets, and you might as well get some good young pitching prospects for them.

 

2019: sell the big boys: Berrios, Buxton and Sano, before they start making the real money. Everyone knows the small market Twins won't be able to afford those big contracts, what with that bad television deal and attendance figures unexpectedly down.

 

Compete in 2020!

[rujellis]

 

Falvey got fooled by first half since the Indians and Royals under performed.

Only need to look at runs differential and Astros/RedSox and understand 2017 is not the Twins year to go for it.

Patience is tough after so many dreadful years but the GM has to understand the percentages of roster peak performance vs. the rest of the league.

The Twins are set up for 2019 (assuming Gonsalves and Romero have growing pains next year like Berrios did last year) and beyond.

2019 Starters:

Berrios

Free Agent Ace

Mejia

Gonsalves

Romero

 

Back Ups - May, Stewart, Jorge, Thorpe, Rodriguez

 

I don't know if I would call giving up Huascar Ynoa as being fooled and in need of a lesson in run differential.  You could argue because he added a pitcher who 'might' be able to keep teams to less than 5 runs, that he understands how to improve run differential.  :-)

[mikelink45]

I am uncertain that we can get anything for our available players.  They just do not have the same value we see on the national level.  I would hate to have high expectations even if we do sell.  This is a hard time because we have a lot of needs.

[mlhouse]

LOL...I have been saying this all season long.  It did not take a rocket scientist to figure out that the early record was a mirage built upon some unsustainable performances (Sano > 1.000 OPS and Santan < 1.00 ERA).  I think that believing this has caused the FO to make a lot of errors.

 

At the same time, I will also state taht the errors are not big ones and nor do I believe that the team should be in "Sell, Sell, Sell" mode just to sell.  I think that we are getting close to putting together a team that can compete, we just need to figure out a handful of holes.  So, if the offer is not good enough, dont move Dozier or Santana who can help you next season compete for a true division crown.

 

At the same time, some of the dead wood needs to be discarded and prospects need to be brought up immediately (they should have been brought up 95 games ago) to demonstrate their fitness to play at this level.  

 

Garver needs to remplace Giminez.  The older relief pitchers need to be DFAd and younger guys brought up and given the opportunities:  DJ Baxendale from AAA and Luke Bard from AA for sure.  Two AAA starters, David Hurlbut and Aaron Siegers need to be given the chance to see if they can be 4th/5th starters for the Twins.

 

By doing these initial steps we can see if any of those guys can help this team going forward.  Otherwise, we can address the needs in the offseason.  Either way, it needs to happen now.

[JustinCB]

 

They shouldn't suddenly sell after a 3 game sweep in LA, 

 

 

Yes, yes they should.

[Mike Sixel]

 

2017: sell Santana, Dozier and Kintzler. Twins are out of it. No brainer.

2018: sell Rosario, Kepler, and Taylor Rogers. Twins are still not on the level of the best teams, these guys are valuable controllable assets, and you might as well get some good young pitching prospects for them.

2019: sell the big boys: Berrios, Buxton and Sano, before they start making the real money. Everyone knows the small market Twins won't be able to afford those big contracts, what with that bad television deal and attendance figures unexpectedly down.

Compete in 2020!

 

In fairness, not one person has typed that they should do this as a real thing. They've clearly stated they should trade off near term FAs and people NOT part of the long term core (other than Rosario, who some have stated should be dealt for a legit SP, since they have some OF depth, and apparently no SP depth).

[SarasotaBill]

 

I don't know if I would call giving up Huascar Ynoa as being fooled and in need of a lesson in run differential.  You could argue because he added a pitcher who 'might' be able to keep teams to less than 5 runs, that he understands how to improve run differential.  :-)

If you are buying when you should be selling then you are fooled.

 

I'm fine if they can't find any good deals for selling (don't sell for the sake of selling) but you should not be buying.

[DaveW]

It's not just bc they lost three against LAD

 

They have been skidding for a while, The league has caught up to berrios and Santana has turned back into a (very good) #3

 

Without those guys pitching lights out the rotation is doomed for 17

[Roaddog]

I think you listen at this point. As long as we don't sell just to sell. I do think you try to get something for Dozier at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think you listen at this point. As long as we don't sell just to sell. I do think you try to get something for Dozier at this point.

 

Meh, I think they should sell just for the fun of selling.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

In fairness, not one person has typed that they should do this as a real thing. They've clearly stated they should trade off near term FAs and people NOT part of the long term core (other than Rosario, who some have stated should be dealt for a legit SP, since they have some OF depth, and apparently no SP depth).

Agree. It was a little cynical. I'm just wondering what the logical conclusion to this is, or what the discussion looks like a year from now, if the Twins are in the same position, maybe 10 games over 500 but still in third place and six games out like this season. More selling? Fire Falvey?

[Mike Sixel]

an interesting tidbit, btw:

 

Collin Jones
1:26 The returns for the early trades have been quite underwhelming? Is that a sense of what the market is this year, or am I undervaluing the prospects involved?

 

Keith Law
1:26 Multiple execs have told me it's a buyer's market, so the returns are all coming back light.

[ToddlerHarmon]

I agree we should be looking to move Kinsler and Dozier, but I'm not convinced Santana is worth selling, unless we get a great offer.

 

We have control for 2 more years, and it appears likely he will be effective throughout that. The rest of the rotation has plenty of room for auditioning starters, and there's enough already there that next year and 2019 should not be steps back, so he may well be involved in a pennant race.

 

Let's put it this way: if the Twins could sign a front line, 30-something starter to a short term contract over the winter, wouldn't that sound good? So why are we getting rid of one?

[drjim]

 

2017: sell Santana, Dozier and Kintzler. Twins are out of it. No brainer.

2018: sell Rosario, Kepler, and Taylor Rogers. Twins are still not on the level of the best teams, these guys are valuable controllable assets, and you might as well get some good young pitching prospects for them.

2019: sell the big boys: Berrios, Buxton and Sano, before they start making the real money. Everyone knows the small market Twins won't be able to afford those big contracts, what with that bad television deal and attendance figures unexpectedly down.

Compete in 2020!

 

If they do it right, they could sell off the pieces acquired this deadline by 2020. Really restock the farm system.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Agree. It was a little cynical. I'm just wondering what the logical conclusion to this is, or what the discussion looks like a year from now, if the Twins are in the same position, maybe 10 games over 500 but still in third place and six games out like this season. More selling? Fire Falvey?

 

Not sure what it will be like, but if they are 10 games over at this point, they won't be in third and closer to the 2nd worst AL team than the WC/division leader.

 

For me, the illogical part of what I type (and it happens, this isn't a dissertation site) stems from the FO not committing (now, or in the recent past) to EITHER a rebuild or winning. Trading for just Jepsen, or just Garcia, is a bad strategy, imo. either try to win, or (if you are in the rebuild still) trade guys off. Everyone knew this pitching staff was bad, and the only adds they made were Belisle and Breslow. No move was made for the SP staff at all (unless you count keeping Santiago as a move), and they somehow seemed to think Hughes had a shot. So, they didn't do either, they didn't move guys to be better in 2018, and they didn't add guys to be better in 2017. Nor have they done anything real for 18/19 or 17 during the year.

 

So, to answer your question, if they are .500, and the FO took no real action again, then yes, some will be calling their tenure into question.

[nicksaviking]

Lots of people are excited to flip vets for prospects; I too am quite curious as to who may go and who may come.

 

However I hope everyone can recognize that it pains other folks to throw in the towel on the 2017 season regardless of how one sees the Twins odds at this point. It might be helpful if we treat whatever transpires more like a glass-half-full situation and not like a gigantic celebration.

 

Just throwing it out there as the trade deadline is dividing us a bit even though the big picture is the same for us all: World Series trophies.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The national hot take is the Twins need to sell. There's no denying a deadline premium could be had for a mid season trade. However, I think the more strategic trade can happen over the winter meetings, and it needs to happen, and for MLB ready pitching, which I think the Twins will have trouble finding here at the deadline. I don't want to see one of their best players suddenly ripped away at a critical moment right now. Just my thoughts on it.

 

I still want to see this team play. I think they win in Oakland, not get beat like they did in LA or Houston.

[drjim]

 

Not sure what it will be like, but if they are 10 games over at this point, they won't be in third and closer to the 2nd worst AL team than the WC/division leader.

 

For me, the illogical part of what I type (and it happens, this isn't a dissertation site) stems from the FO not committing (now, or in the recent past) to EITHER a rebuild or winning. Trading for just Jepsen, or just Garcia, is a bad strategy, imo. either try to win, or (if you are in the rebuild still) trade guys off. Everyone knew this pitching staff was bad, and the only adds they made were Belisle and Breslow. No move was made for the SP staff at all (unless you count keeping Santiago as a move), and they somehow seemed to think Hughes had a shot. So, they didn't do either, they didn't move guys to be better in 2018, and they didn't add guys to be better in 2017. Nor have they done anything real for 18/19 or 17 during the year.

 

So, to answer your question, if they are .500, and the FO took no real action again, then yes, some will be calling their tenure into question.

 

This is a place I would disagree. I think it is very logical at this stage of the franchise to add a cheap piece or two. What the previous front office did really should have no bearing on what they do now.

 

They need to start building towards something, and supporting the young core as it starts to emerge. They jumped the timeline by a season, so it is worthwhile to supplement that, while also acknowledging that it is not worth spending all assets because a championship is unlikely. Selling off 3-4 pieces and seeing a real collapse does risk squandering gains. Especially if they trade pitching. 

[Mike Sixel]

Fair, but adding Garcia is not getting this team into the playoffs. They have to play like .700 from here on out to make it. Adding Garcia and 2 RPs 2 weeks ago? that might have helped. But they didn't. 

[Roaddog]

Meh, I think they should sell just for the fun of selling.

Not what I meant.