Article: 5 Reasons You Should Love The Jaime Garcia Trade

[Nick Nelson]

Allow me to set the stage.

 

The year is 2011, and a young left-hander by the name of Jaime Garcia is establishing himself as a frontline stud in the St. Louis Cardinals rotation. Fresh off a stellar campaign in 2010 that placed him third in Rookie of the Year balloting, behind Buster Posey and Jason Heyward, the 24-year-old Garcia made 32 starts, posting a 3.56 ERA and recording 13 wins for a second straight year.Wouldn't it be grand if that 2011 version of Garcia could re-emerge? Well, it's not likely. In five years since, he has undergone two major shoulder surgeries – for labrum and rotator cuff tears, then for thoracic outlet syndrome – while aging past 30.

 

But you needn't dream so much to find plenty to like in Garcia, acquired from Atlanta on Monday along with minor-league catcher Anthony Recker, in exchange for 19-year-old Dominican right-hander Huascar Ynoa.

 

It's not a blockbuster. It's not an all-in, pedal-to-the-medal move. It's not even as aggressive as the push as the similarly positioned Royals made on the same day.

 

But there are five reasons I'm feeling really good about this trade for the Twins.

 

1) Worm burner supreme: Garcia is an absolute ground ball machine

 

He has a 56.4 percent career ground ball rate and has never wavered far from that mark. Whereas the Twins have long been enamored with guys who can "pitch down in the zone," their starters have rarely embodied a true GB pitcher prototype. Garcia annually posts grounder rates that stack up against the league's best.

 

While this isn't necessarily ideal for a team much better in the outfield than the infield defensively, and the lack of strikeouts limits his ceiling, Garcia boasts a high floor. Pitchers who keep the ball on the ground so well don't give up many extra-base hits, and don't often unravel in short starts. (Only once in 18 turns this year has he failed to complete at least five innings.)

 

The Twins were seeking that kind of stability rather than ace upside. They got it. And...

 

2) The price was right: Minnesota acquired Garcia without giving up much

 

Ynoa was interesting, to be sure. There's a reason the Twins paid a hefty $800,000 to sign him as a 16-year-old in 2014. But he hasn't advanced past rookie ball, didn't rank among Twins Daily's top 20 prospects heading into the season, and hasn't adjusted well to the Appy League, where he has a 5.26 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in six starts.

 

Maybe he fills out, adds more velocity, refines his offspeed stuff, and turns into a quality starter. But he's basically a lotto ticket right now, and in comparison with last week's iteration of the Garcia trade, the Twins are swapping out Nick Burdi – who could be a dominating late-inning reliever in 2019 – for someone who might be a good MLB starter around 2021. For a club at the front end of a winning cycle, that's a good tradeoff.

 

Ynoa was a small price to pay for a starter with Garcia's track record. Part of the reason Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were able to swing it might have been...

 

3) Ponying up: The Twins are covering all the money

 

Garcia, on a $12 million contract, is owed almost $5 million over the remainder of the season. In the days where they were more conscious of expenses, the Twins might have been inclined to throw in a better prospect in order to get the Braves to foot some of that bill. But by taking all of the salary obligation off Atlanta's ledger, they provided extra motivation to make a deal.

 

It's not any huge investment, but backs up ownership's assertion that the new front office will be given financial flexibility to execute their plans. And for a franchise with the reputation this one has, it is pretty good optically.

 

Speaking of good optics...

 

4) Message delivered: Falvey and Levine are giving a vote of confidence

 

The Twins are overperforming. No one expected them to be at this point, and objectively, they probably won't hang with the Indians (maybe not even the Royals) over the final two months.

 

But the players on the roster have worked hard to get to this point. They aren't within a couple of games of first place in late July by accident. In going out and getting arguably the best rental starter on the market (outside of Yu Darvish, who may or may not actually be available), the new leaders are sending a message to this group:

 

We believe in you. Here's some help. Now go get it.

 

They are doing so in a responsible way – "measured," to borrow a term from Levine – but Garcia undoubtedly has a chance to make a significant impact, especially in light of what he's replacing. And to that end...

 

5) Game on: The Twins just got more watchable, and more interesting

 

Assuming Garcia can stay healthy (and that's not the lofty proposition it once was) this team will now have a much better chance of winning each fifth day. He pushes Hector Santiago out of the equation, and whether he takes the place of Bartolo Colon or Kyle Gibson, it's a substantial upgrade.

 

With Garcia joining Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia, the Twins have a respectable starting four. And in the fifth spot, they at least have possibilities. Gibson seems to be coming around, and Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero are looming in Double-A.

 

From 103 losses to adding for the stretch run. And we're still at the front end of a contention window.

 

Game on.

 

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[nmcowboy]

Works for me on all five counts.  Go Twinkies!!

[DocBauer]

Nick, agree with all of your points 100%.

 

Let me add the bullpen might have just gotten a little better too, with another, better starter to eat innings.

 

Looking down the road in to next year...not that I want to loose focus on the trade or this season but...via trade of FA, (preferably FA), the Twins still need to acquire another high quality arm to join Santana and Berrios. What if Garcia enjoys the city, this exciting young team, and has success the next two months? You may have a possible re-sign option to fill out the rotation with Mejia.

 

There's a lot to like about this move.

[beckmt]

Good analysis Nick.  It could fall apart, but at least it looks like they tried.  Will need more moves to get further.

[bighat]

What's been worrying me is that everyone seems to have forgotten about Hector "The Looming Spector" Santiago.

 

He's almost off the DL. Are Hector and his dastardly deeds going to sneak into the rotation and sabotage the Twins chances? What will we do with this guy?

[DocBauer]

What's been worrying me is that everyone seems to have forgotten about Hector "The Looming Spector" Santiago.

 

He's almost off the DL. Are Hector and his dastardly deeds going to sneak into the rotation and sabotage the Twins chances? What will we do with this guy?

Trade bait? Maybe?

 

Was it Thrylos, some time ago, that advocated/predicted he'd finish the year in the pen if the Twins made a move?

[snepp]

 

What's been worrying me is that everyone seems to have forgotten about Hector "The Looming Spector" Santiago.

 

He's almost off the DL. Are Hector and his dastardly deeds going to sneak into the rotation and sabotage the Twins chances? What will we do with this guy?

 

If healthy, perfectly viable back-half starter. Let him/Gibby/Mejia fight to the death over the last two spots.

 

 

(preferably without the death of Mejia, he actually has a future on this team)

[jctwins]

Maybe it's my bias toward negativity, but I'm pretty hard pressed to be convinced that any move to improve this team now is a bite on the future, and the present isn't bright enough to make it worth investing much in the way of resources.

 

That said, they didn't give much up other than money, which there is plenty of to go around.

 

Put me in the camp of the only way I'm really excited is if they trade win-now assets for really highly valued future assets. An anomoly I know.

[strumdatjaguar]

Gibson's last start was good.  At this point, it should be Mejia and Santiago fighting for the last spot (at least until Gibson goes sour again)

[Darius]

I was actually kind of apathetic about the trade. I thought Ynoa wasn't enough to get upset about at this point, and Garcia won't be enough. Not much there.

 

I think you talked me into liking it. If it helps them at least play meaningful games for a little while longer, that'll be worth it. Some playoff atmosphere, if not the actual playoffs, would be nice.

[tobi0040]

Great points Nick. Well done

[D.C Twins]

Good trade for all these reasons ... and without it things could have gone south...and fast with the rotation

[darin617]

6. Garcia is a free agent at the end of the season...

[kab21]

This isn't a big trade but it is a huge move considering Colon is in the rotation and Santiago faces a lot of uncertainty. If anybody is concerned that the Twins have TOO MANY starters then I don't even know what to say.

[LaBombo]

I guess if you had your heart set on the Twins firmly committing to the "optics" of contention, then it's hard to see a better available move than picking up Garcia.

 

But the trade comes with a much steeper commitment than a #20-ish prospect or a few million unspent dollars from the season's payroll budget. It comes with a commitment to the improved performance of the current youngsters on the MLB roster as almost the only meaningful source of improvement in the team for the foreseeable future.

 

If you see them turning the Twins into contenders in 2018 and beyond with minimal outside help, then adding a fig leaf of contention like Garcia for 2017 and standing pat for the future makes a world of sense.

Edited July 25, 2017 by LaBombo

[Willihammer]

Honestly I'm sort of conflicted. We needed to make a deal for 2017 and this is a hell of a lot better than nothing but as others have speculated this seems like stage one of a trade and sign and in that sense Garcia would be a pretty underwhelming long term acquisition.

 

Rather have gone after Darvish, if that's the plan.

Edited July 25, 2017 by Willihammer

[mlhouse]

WHile I agree we gave up very little in this rental, the real point of the remainder of the season should be to find out if we need a Jaime Garcia signing next offseason.  

 

I get the "playoff" contention, but we are a barely .500 team with a runs differential that suggests we should be closer to the bottom of the league than a playoff contender, and the true fact of the matter is that the only reason we even look like a "contender" is that we are in the weakest division in baseball.

 

Instead, we should determine if we have a 4th/5th starter from within the organization by giving Hurlbut and Siegers an opportunity to pitch during the 2nd half of the season, and the time might be right to bring up Gonsalves to see if he is a 3rd/4th starter guy in the league.  

 

If one or more of those guys work out, then you don't need a Jaime Garcia.  But, if you give them 10 starts each and they cannot do the job, this offseason go out an sign a guy like Garcia to be that 4th starter type a decent roster needs.  

[Otwins]

7. We may have a long relief man to soak up innings in case of a short start- whoever gets bumped from the rotation 

[Kwak]

I agree with all of the points stated.  It's not about winning this year--it's the perception of the FO does care about winning and is committed to help the team win (yes, there is a budget, this isn't LA/NY).  But the FO wasn't worried about ~$5MM, they were worried about not trying to help.  Very Good!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Gibson's last start was good. At this point, it should be Mejia and Santiago fighting for the last spot (at least until Gibson goes sour again)

Nonononono. Mejia has earned his spot. He has a solid ERA and strikeout rate. Mejia stays, Gibson goes. No question about it. You're better in both the short and long term that way.

[kab21]

 

I guess if you had your heart set on the Twins firmly committing to the "optics" of contention, then it's hard to see a better available move than picking up Garcia.

 

But the trade comes with a much steeper commitment than a #20-ish prospect or a few million unspent dollars from the season's payroll budget. It comes with a commitment to the improved performance of the current youngsters on the MLB roster as almost the only meaningful source of improvement in the team for the foreseeable future.

 

If you see them turning the Twins into contenders in 2018 and beyond with minimal outside help, then adding a fig leaf of contention like Garcia for 2017 and standing pat for the future makes a world of sense.

I don't see why adding Garcia means anything different for the 2018 offseason. Why are they standing pat for the future in either scenario?

 

 

WHile I agree we gave up very little in this rental, the real point of the remainder of the season should be to find out if we need a Jaime Garcia signing next offseason.  

 

I get the "playoff" contention, but we are a barely .500 team with a runs differential that suggests we should be closer to the bottom of the league than a playoff contender, and the true fact of the matter is that the only reason we even look like a "contender" is that we are in the weakest division in baseball.

 

Instead, we should determine if we have a 4th/5th starter from within the organization by giving Hurlbut and Siegers an opportunity to pitch during the 2nd half of the season, and the time might be right to bring up Gonsalves to see if he is a 3rd/4th starter guy in the league.  

 

If one or more of those guys work out, then you don't need a Jaime Garcia.  But, if you give them 10 starts each and they cannot do the job, this offseason go out an sign a guy like Garcia to be that 4th starter type a decent roster needs.  

We have had a revolving door all season at the 5th spot (and Gibson at the 4th spot). There have been ample opportunity to audition for a spot if the FO thought any of those guys are worthy.

[Oxtung]

Honestly I'm sort of conflicted. We needed to make a deal for 2017 and this is a hell of a lot better than nothing but as others have speculated this seems like stage one of a trade and sign and in that sense Garcia would be a pretty underwhelming long term acquisition.

 

Rather have gone after Darvish, if that's the plan.

I don't think that is the case here. Back of the rotation starters are available cheap every off season. Sign and trades only make sense for above average players.

[LaBombo]

 

I don't see why adding Garcia means anything different for the 2018 offseason. Why are they standing pat for the future in either scenario?

 

 

 

Either Santana and the other marketable veterans aren't going anywhere in the offseason just like they aren't going anywhere now, or else they'll be shopped in what may be a potentially less lucrative winter meeting environment. The former now seems much more likely to me.

 

And I'm not terribly optimistic about the Twins organization making any significant improvement through free agency this offseason after its current owner and his new front office shored up the "total system failure" of the worst team in the history of the franchise with a one-point-something WAR catcher whose first search hit on Yahoo is person locator BeenVerified's boast that "We Found Jason Castro".

 

So that pretty much leaves the progression of the young players as the only meaningful avenue of improvement. Maybe that's enough. I don't know. But I doubt it.

 

Edited July 25, 2017 by LaBombo

[jimbo92107]

"...Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero are looming in Double-A."

 

Somebody tell those young men to quit looming. It's creeping me out. 

[kab21]

 

Either Santana and the other marketable veterans aren't going anywhere in the offseason just like they aren't going anywhere now, or else they'll be shopped in what may be a potentially less lucrative winter meeting environment. The former now seems much more likely to me.

 

And I'm not terribly optimistic about the Twins organization making any significant improvement through free agency this offseason after its current owner and his new front office shored up the "total system failure" of the worst team in the history of the franchise with a one-point-something WAR catcher whose first search hit on Yahoo is person locator BeenVerified's boast that "We Found Jason Castro".

 

So that pretty much leaves the progression of the young players as the only meaningful avenue of improvement. Maybe that's enough. I don't know. But I doubt it.

Teams that finish dead last in the MLB shouldn't be signing expensive FA's for the most part. Things have changed now with several players taking steps forward this season (Berrios, Sano as MVP level, Rosario/Kepler, Grossman, etc...). I certainly don't think that one offseason of a new GM can tell you a whole lot about what they will do in the future.

This move for example has shown us that they will pick up a contract which was something that many had considered impossible just one week ago. Yes, people thought taking on 4M in salary was near impossible because it hadn't been done before. I think we will see a lot of 'impossible' during the next couple of seasons. Hopefully there are some W's also.

[Rhino and Compass]

If you are close, you should always go for it. You can't assume anything from year to year, and anything can happen in the playoffs. They did a good job limiting the return, and the Twins are obviously taking advantage of the current situation (i.e. being in the postseason race). I'm all for this move. Bravo.

[h2oface]

Hoping Sano becomes MVP level, and him actually doing it....... are two drastically different things. 

[HitInAPinch]

My takes on the acquisition of Jaime Garcia:

 

2) The price was right: Minnesota acquired Garcia without giving up much

This is what real, professional front offices do.  Terry Ryan was a heck of a talent evaluator.  But otherwise...

 

3) Ponying up: The Twins are covering all the money.

In baseball terms, a small amount of money.  In Pohlad-terms, yeah, it's still money, but they approved of this move.  This and the move to hire a firm to find new people to run the Twins organization are really big moves.  The day's of calling the Pohland's cheap are over!  Maybe. SSS and all....

 

4) Message delivered: Falvey and Levine are giving a vote of confidence.

Another big deal.  We haven't seen this in a long time.  And how about a vote of confidence for Molitor?  I know there are many who criticize Molitor on a regular basis.  I call it a bunch of nitpicking.  This team is growing under Molitor.  Or are we calling Eddie Rosario's season a fluke?   

 

Gibson has been farmed out again, this time in favor of Colon.  In his last game, Gibson pitched a good game.  Then started whining again.  Shezzz.....

 

Moving forward, is it Santana, Berrios, Mejia, Garcia and Colon?  Surely we can go better than Colon, right?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Nonononono. Mejia has earned his spot. He has a solid ERA and strikeout rate. Mejia stays, Gibson goes. No question about it. You're better in both the short and long term that way.

 

This. I'd rather send Colon to the pen when Santiago returns then sending Mejia to AAA.

[wabene]

Even though it may be counter intuitive on the surface I liked this deal better if we picked up the money. Maybe Falvey is smooth enough to pry cash from a bankers white knuckled clutches