Article: Deadline Primer: The National League Central

[Nick Nelson]

Last week, Seth took a look at the trade landscape in the National League West, calling out some players from the Padres and Giants who could interest Minnesota's front office.

 

Today, we turn our attention to the NL Central.Late last week, the Twins almost completed a deal to acquire Atlanta's Jaime Garcia, but it fell through in the late stages. Though the move didn't go down (not yet anyway), the message was sent: Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are in buy mode, and open to rentals at the right price.

 

As they seek to upgrade the rotation and bullpen, could they find a match in the NL Central?

 

STANDINGS

 

Milwaukee Brewers: 53-48

Chicago Cubs: 51-46

Pittsburgh Pirates: 49-50 (3 GB)

St. Louis Cardinals: 47-51 (4.5 GB)

Cincinnati Reds: 41-57 (10.5 GB)

 

THE BUYERS

 

The Brewers have been one of baseball's best surprises, outpacing low expectations to lead one of baseball's tougher divisions as we head into late July. They are in Buy Mode. The Cubs, who have already made a big splash by acquiring Jose Quintana from across town, probably aren't done. And the Pirates, making a hard charge after starting slow, are also setting their sights on a postseason berth.

 

THE SELLERS

 

The Reds are clearly open for business, with a few intriguing assets we'll cover below. The Cardinals? Well now that's an interesting one. They have placed first or second in the division for seven straight seasons, but last year finished 16.5 games behind the Cubs, and now they find themselves chasing three clubs. Non-contention is unfamiliar territory for the Cards, and while they're certainly not out of it, frustration is running high and the front office seems inclined to shake things up.

 

The Reds

 

The most interesting name generating trade buzz in Cincy is Raisel Iglesias. He was the Reds' Opening Day starter last year, but moved to the bullpen after dealing with some arm issues and has now settled in as a fearsome closer throwing in the upper 90s. He's only 25, and under team control through 2021, so the price would be exorbitantly high.

 

Looking elsewhere, you won't find much quality on the worst pitching staff in the majors, although there are a few players worth monitoring. Tim Adleman and Scott Feldman are serviceable starters that wouldn't require a top prospect to pry loose, though Feldman is currently on the DL. Among relievers, the Twins might be inquiring on Drew Storen (an impending free agent), Blake Wood, or left-hander Tony Cingrani.

 

One wild card: Zack Cozart. The shortstop has quietly emerged as a top-tier player in the game, combining premium offensive production with stellar D, and he's set to hit the open market at season's end. The Reds are certainly listening on him, and right now the Twins could stand to get better at short. If Minnesota is open to a contract extension, there could be something here, though it's a long shot.

 

The Cardinals

 

The Cardinals probably aren't going to trade current closer Seung-hwan Oh, but they might be inclined to listen on former closer Trevor Rosenthal, who is under contract through next year. His 14.1 K/9 rate ranks fifth among big-league relievers.

 

On the rotation front, Lance Lynn's name has unsurprisingly been popping up in many rumors. The 30-year-old is about to become a free agent, and has been a consistent stud in St. Louis over the years. He missed 2016 due to Tommy John surgery but has bounced back nicely this season.

 

Lynn will have many suitors, some with more urgency than the Twins.

 

SUMMARY

 

It's fun to ponder what dealings between the Twins and Cardinals might look like, but the Reds are the most likely trade partner in the NL Central. Unless the Twins are willing to pony up for Iglesias, they would likely be choosing from a group of mid-rotation starters and middle relievers. Feldman makes a lot of sense, but a trade for him probably would not materialize until August, after the non-waiver deadline.

 

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[nater79a]

I've been on the Zack Cozart bandwagon for awhile now.  If the Twins felt they could sign him to a 3-year extension could they then flip Nick Gordon in a bigger deal for a controllable starting pitcher?  Cozart could hold down the fort at SS till someone like Jermaine Pelacios is ready in a couple years. The only issue with Cozart is his injury history, but otherwise he's a quality player.

 

I like Scott Feldman as a backend rotation guy, but yeah, his DL stint is going to slow his trade interest down until August.

[mudcat14]

Would Polanco & a lower-tier pitcher be enough to rent Cozart?  If he likes it here and does well, he might re-sign fairly reasonably.  The FA demand for SS's this winter doesn't look too ripe.  I like the idea of moving Gordon in a bigger off-season deal and using Cozart as a bridge to Palacios, Javier, Lewis or whomever.

[jun]

Escobar and Adrianza have been playing well both offensively and defensively, why would the Twins trade for another SS by giving up its top prospect? It would be nice to move Polanco for some more pitching.

[diehardtwinsfan]

So if there was a pitching match to get Santana out of Minnesota, I wonder if the Pirates have soured enough on Glasnow to flip him for help now. He's a top prospect with a high ceiling, ML ready, but simply hasn't put it together at the major league level.

 

Just a thought if Pitt was to decide to buy.

[drjim]

So if there was a pitching match to get Santana out of Minnesota, I wonder if the Pirates have soured enough on Glasnow to flip him for help now. He's a top prospect with a high ceiling, ML ready, but simply hasn't put it together at the major league level.

 

Just a thought if Pitt was to decide to buy.

Stop it.

[Tomj14]

 

Escobar and Adrianza have been playing well both offensively and defensively, why would the Twins trade for another SS by giving up its top prospect? It would be nice to move Polanco for some more pitching.

What are we hoping to get in return for Polanco?

[Tomj14]

 

I've been on the Zack Cozart bandwagon for awhile now.  If the Twins felt they could sign him to a 3-year extension could they then flip Nick Gordon in a bigger deal for a controllable starting pitcher?  Cozart could hold down the fort at SS till someone like Jermaine Pelacios is ready in a couple years. The only issue with Cozart is his injury history, but otherwise he's a quality player.

 

I like Scott Feldman as a backend rotation guy, but yeah, his DL stint is going to slow his trade interest down until August.

I think the cost for a SS hitting .319 with a OPS of .970 is going to cost us some pretty good prospects.

 

[nicksaviking]

I was and still would be interested if the Cardinals would listen on Michael Wacha. He had a poor year last year and his numbers mid-June also weren't pretty, but he's got good velocity and lots of pitches. He's also still young and controllable.

 

?(Un)fortunately? He's pitched much better the last month so he might be harder to buy low-ish on.

[Tomj14]

No one else commented on him, but I love the idea of getting Raisel Iglesias, he can step in this year as 8th inning type guy, and next year compete to be the closer if we resign Kintztler or if his arm problems are a thing of the past we could offer him the change to move back to starting.

This is the type of guy we should be looking at. (he would probably cost a lot, not sure we have enough, would Blakenhorn, Jorge and relief pitcher get it done?

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No one else commented on him, but I love the idea of getting Raisel Iglesias, he can step in this year as 8th inning type guy, and next year compete to be the closer if we resign Kintztler or if his arm problems are a thing of the past we could offer him the change to move back to starting.

This is the type of guy we should be looking at. (he would probably cost a lot, not sure we have enough, would Blakenhorn, Jorge and relief pitcher get it done?

Not a chance.  They are probably looking for Giles/Chapman/Miller level returns.  There's no rush on Cincinnati's side, Iglesias is controlled for 4 more seasons beyond this one.