Article: No Garcia Trade: Braves Balk At Twins’ Prospect’s Health

[nicksaviking]

For all the talk about the playoffs being a crapshoot, the reality is that this team has 20 MLBers on it's 25 man roster and the missing 5 are all pitchers. Garcia may be average, but an average starter is of considerable value. Burdi wasn't a name I suspected given the surgery, but I'd probably be willing to part with him for a rental. We have plenty of RP talent in the high minors, and while it's been frustrating to see it, Burdi has been one of the most frustrating given how often he seems to get hurt.

Is a soft tosser with an increasing walk issue going to be average in the AL though? He looks like the kind of guy who will be a liability in short order.

 

I don't have an issue losing Burdi, I just think the odds of this guy actually patching a hole are quite slim. Isn't this basically replacing Hector Santiago with a softer tossing Hector Santiago who's only pitched in the NL.

[Brock Beauchamp]

For all the talk about the playoffs being a crapshoot, the reality is that this team has 20 MLBers on it's 25 man roster and the missing 5 are all pitchers. Garcia may be average, but an average starter is of considerable value. Burdi wasn't a name I suspected given the surgery, but I'd probably be willing to part with him for a rental. We have plenty of RP talent in the high minors, and while it's been frustrating to see it, Burdi has been one of the most frustrating given how often he seems to get hurt.

It takes talent to get talent. Garcia is mediocre but Burdi is a wildcard due to injury. I wouldn't jump at the idea of giving up Burdi but it's a reasonable trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Is a soft tosser with an increasing walk issue going to be average in the AL though? He looks like the kind of guy who will be a liability in short order.

 

I don't have an issue losing Burdi, I just think the odds of this guy actually patching a hole are quite slim. Isn't this basically replacing Hector Santiago with a softer tossing Hector Santiago who's only pitched in the NL.

And if Santiago was healthy, we might not be having this conversation.

[nicksaviking]

And if Santiago was healthy, we might not be having this conversation.

Maybe, but it seemed to me this site has been deriding Santiago since his first start in a Twins uniform.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Maybe, but it seemed to me this site has been deriding Santiago since nice his first start in a Twins uniform.

Some have, but I always thought he was a decent retention. Yeah, there's risk with any mediocre pitcher who outperforms his peripherals but considering this pitching staff, his modest upside could have been useful given the other options.

[Mike Sixel]

So, 0 fer 2 on trades, at least. Let me know when they actually do something that makes the team better.

[sploorp]

What I can't get over is why any team would consider trading a healthy experienced MLB starter for a minor league reliever on the DL for at least a year with Tommy John surgery.  It just doesn't make any sense.

 

I can't help but think the Braves were only throwing chum into the water in the hope of creating a feeding frenzy.

 

Step 1) negotiate an awful deal.

Step 2) leak said starter giveaway to the press.

Step 3) listen to offers from all the teams who think the Atlanta front office has just lost their minds.

Step 4) pick the deal you like best (which will probably wind up being nothing like Burdi for Garcia).

[sploorp]

 

So does this mean the trade "is off the table" and our discussion is pointless?  Or are these teams still in discussion?

I can't imagine why Atlanta wouldn't still be considering other players from the Twins for Garcia.

[Deduno Abides]

Inferences:

 

1. Braves consider Burdi to have high upside.

2. Burdi has serious health risks.

3. Burdi may not be selected if he's exposed in the Rule V draft.

[sploorp]

 

If cash is complicating this. I can't help wonder why. 

 

He's a rental. Just pay it. 

Exactly right.  A run at a division title and appearances in the post season would more than cover Garcia's payroll.

[Seth Stohs]

 

The first question is certainly interesting and probably unknowable by non front office people. The second part is certainly interesting, but probably moot if the Braves aren't willing to take on Burdi.

Perhaps Seth underrated Burdi?

 

The only ratings that matter here are the Twins' and the Braves'... I had him top ten before last year, I think. Ceiling is still very high.

[Seth Stohs]

 

So, 0 fer 2 on trades, at least. Let me know when they actually do something that makes the team better.

 

What am I missing here? 

 

0-2 in trades? Was the first one not trading Dozier straight-up for a pitcher in the offseason?

 

Was the second one not making a trade for Garcia because the other team had a change of heart.

 

I'm guessing there have been a whole bunch of other conversations that they've had with other teams that haven't resulted in trades.

[sploorp]

 

Garcia may be average, but an average starter is of considerable value.

Average is also more than we've been getting in a couple of the slots.  I really don't care how long some people think it will take for this team to win in the post season and I don't care how great people think Burdi and any other mid tier prospect is.  I'm sick of losing and I'm sick of having the front office not pulling the trigger on trades because of some future greatness that never seems to materialize.

 

I want to see how far this team can go.  Not next season or the season after.  I want to see it this season.  I want to see it now.  A mid-rotation and a couple of relievers would do wonders for this team's chances and it wouldn't take a lot to get them.  It also doesn't have to block any of the youth.  Bring 'em all up in September and give them some innings.  Take some of the load off the starters.  A chase for the post season would be invaluable for everybody concerned.

[old nurse]

 

I won't quibble about these guys, but I do want to say this isn't how valuation works. Garcia was guaranteed more money last winter, was not as removed from his injuries, was coming off a suspect performance trend in 2016 -- and the Braves (and other teams that may have pursued him last winter) had less probability of contention in 2017 than the Twins and other teams have today. It is quite likely that Garcia should return more value in trade now than he did last winter.

2015 deadline trades of Scatt Kasmir, JA Happ, and Mike Leake trades would say you are wrong. 

[drjim]

The only ratings that matter here are the Twins' and the Braves'... I had him top ten before last year, I think. Ceiling is still very high.

I agree. I wasn't saying that to be critical, you rated Burdi appropriately (imo). I was surprised that Burdi would have been enough. If reports are true, he must have more value than any of us realized.

[drjim]

So, 0 fer 2 on trades, at least. Let me know when they actually do something that makes the team better.

That's only trades that got leaked prematurely. Twins are 0 for <undefined> under the new front office.

 

But fear not, when they make a trade, I'm sure you'll hear about it.

[HitInAPinch]

 

some teams are so damn picky

Is the arm still attached? Yes.  Rub some dirt on it and get back out there!

 

Gods, I miss the good-old days.....   

[Otto von Ballpark]

3. Burdi may not be selected if he's exposed in the Rule V draft.

I wonder if some of this could be jockeying by the Twins to scare teams from picking Burdi in Rule 5. Or the Braves scaring teams picking ahead of them so they can pick Burdi.

 

Or it could simply suggest his value is still high enough that he's an obvious 40-man addition. That's what I thought before, because he would make an ideal Rule 5 selection.

[HitInAPinch]

Late last night, LEN 3 posted an article that said the Twins and Braves are still talking.  

Burdi is no longer in the discussion.

[USAFChief]

I wonder if some of this could be jockeying by the Twins to scare teams from picking Burdi in Rule 5. Or the Braves scaring teams picking ahead of them so they can pick Burdi.

Or it could simply suggest his value is still high enough that he's an obvious 40-man addition. That's what I thought before, because he would make an ideal Rule 5 selection.

yeah, stash on the 60 day, but I forget the rule...doesn't such a case still need X number of days on the 25 man to become the claiming team's property?

[old nurse]

 

I agree. I wasn't saying that to be critical, you rated Burdi appropriately (imo). I was surprised that Burdi would have been enough. If reports are true, he must have more value than any of us realized.

Maybe Garcia as a rental has less valur than you think.  In 14 games how big of swing is he going to make in the win column?  Is he going to get you 3 more wins than a healthy Santiago?

[Otto von Ballpark]

2015 deadline trades of Scatt Kasmir, JA Happ, and Mike Leake trades would say you are wrong.

Only Happ among that group was traded in the previous offseason to have a similar basis of comparison as Garcia now. So you'd also have to consider how market factors may have been different in 2015 than in 2017. And Happ was performing worse than Garcia and the others too (82 ERA+), so the fact that his return was lower was not surprising.

 

And I think it was shown around here recently that the Leake trade wasn't a bad return. Duvall is a corner slugger type, but he has accumulated 5 bWAR and counting for 2016-2017. The other guy was the Giants #3 prospect per Sickels that year, B/B+ grade.

 

The prospects in the Kazmir trade were also reasonably well-considered at the time too. Nottingham was a catcher having a breakout season, and was even BP's #66 overall prospect that next offseason, and was eventually used by the A's to acquire Khris Davis.

[Otto von Ballpark]

yeah, stash on the 60 day, but I forget the rule...doesn't such a case still need X number of days on the 25 man to become the claiming team's property?

Yes, 90 days. So half a season on the DL would be ideal.

[kab21]

We at least have an idea of what the Braves price was. I certainly wouldn't lose any sleep over trading a prospect that may not contribute in 2018 for a solid SP.

 

Maybe Garcia as a rental has less valur than you think.  In 14 games how big of swing is he going to make in the win column?  Is he going to get you 3 more wins than a healthy Santiago?

The Twins don't have a healthy Santiago to compare against. They have Colon, Turley or ???? in the 5th spot. I think Garcia could get you 3 more wins than that crew.

[SarasotaBill]

Garcia will have a ERA over 5 in the AL.

 

Losing any high potential prospect for a half year rental of a blah pitcher is a bad idea.

 

For what, to get into a wild card game?

 

A percentage of prospects will make it. A percentage of high end prospects will make a big impact.

 

2019 to 2021 are the prime years for the Twins prospect pipeline.

[old nurse]

 

We at least have an idea of what the Braves price was. I certainly wouldn't lose any sleep over trading a prospect that may not contribute in 2018 for a solid SP.

 

The Twins don't have a healthy Santiago to compare against. They have Colon, Turley or ???? in the 5th spot. I think Garcia could get you 3 more wins than that crew.

Santiago will have a rhab start on Wednesday   It is not like Santiago had a maor operation. Out of sight out of mind for some. He still exists, he still is under contract and there is no reason to think he will not be back.

[kab21]

 

Santiago will have a rhab start on Wednesday   It is not like Santiago had a maor operation. Out of sight out of mind for some. He still exists, he still is under contract and there is no reason to think he will not be back.

Let's call yours the optimistic take.

His velocity dropped after he pitched in relief and it plummeted in his last start. I have a feeling that something major is wrong. He still exists but I am not counting on him for anything this season. If he comes back then it is a bonus. I certainly wouldn't stop exploring pitching trades because he 'might' come back.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Let's call yours the optimistic take.

His velocity dropped after he pitched in relief and it plummeted in his last start. I have a feeling that something major is wrong. He still exists but I am not counting on him for anything this season. If he comes back then it is a bonus. I certainly wouldn't stop exploring pitching trades because he 'might' come back.

And it's not as if the Twins have no room in their rotation for both a healthy Santiago and another pitcher.

 

God forbid, that might actually make their rotation passable.

[mikelink45]

I was not excited about Garcia, but I do think that we have a number of good pitchers who are not going to make a splash with the Twins - we write about them every year - so why not give them a choice to pick from and get it done?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I was not excited about Garcia, but I do think that we have a number of good pitchers who are not going to make a splash with the Twins - we write about them every year - so why not give them a choice to pick from and get it done?

If they can't get a deal done for a starter at the deadline, they need to call up either Romero or Gonsalves.

 

Hell, that might be the right decision either way. It's not likely but it's possible that one of those guys could outperform someone like Jaime Garcia over ten-ish starts.