Article: No Garcia Trade: Braves Balk At Twins’ Prospect’s Health

[drjim]

Lavelle said "Indications are Twins will take on most of the salary." Wolfson said "Told as talks stand now, #MNTwins will very likely assume the remaining $4.7M on Garcia's contract." So there was a little wiggle room.

 

Seems like there might be more to this than just the medicals of a Burdi level prospect...

Possible, but Rosenthal's explanation seems pretty straightforward.

[nicksaviking]

With due respect to Ken Rosenthal's source, it makes no sense to get that close to a trade and have it hung up on medical issues in the case of Nick Burdi. I find it hard to believe they didn't already know he had TJS and what the potential ramifications of that were.

After nearly every sports surgery in all of mankind's history, the team and player call the procedure "a success!!!".

 

I'd guess sometimes they are exaggerating.

[Thrylos]

 

Thorpe makes the most sense based on the Braves strong interest in Australia. It wouldn't surprise me if it was Jay as well. Perhaps Brusdar Graterol as well.

 

Why don't you throw in Gonsalves and Romero as well....

 

Graterol should be as close to untouchable as anything in the Twins' organization, because he has the highest ceiling of any of their pitching prospects (albeit comes with more risk than someone like Romero)

 

Jay (and Burdi) should be anchoring the tail end of the Twins' pen for a long time, not traded for a rental.   Glad that it did not happen with Burdi.

 

The Braves gave to the Cardinals the following for Garcia:  Luke Dykstra, Chris Ellis, and John Gant.

 

Dykstra has a career .687 OPS in 4 seasons and just reached high A
Ellis has a career 4.94 ERA in 4 minor league seasons and he is in AAA
Gant was a mop up man, and spot starter with 4.86 ERA in 20 games (7 starts)

 

For half the season, half of the value of the above, that would be either Ellis or Gant and Dykstra.

 

In other words in Twins' comparables, either someone like Slegers or someone like Haley and Sean Miller.

 

Not anyone with real potential. 

Edited July 22, 2017 by Thrylos

[SarasotaBill]

Headline: Garcia pitched a great game last night.

Reality: 3 runs in 7 innings is an ERA close to 4 without pitching to a DH.

Blah.

 

Falvey - I'm ordering you not to trade any high potential player.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Possible, but Rosenthal's explanation seems pretty straightforward.

Straightforward, but also seems incomplete. Seth had Burdi as our #19 prospect, and that was before the draft. He was known to have missed most of 2016 with a bone bruise, and then had TJ surgery in May. I could see him being discussed for this trade, but unlikely that his medicals alone would torpedo it.

 

Was he the only top ~30 prospect the Twins were willing to consider dealing? Did the Twins hope to get some salary covered, or get an interesting minor leaguer back in return?

[Otto von Ballpark]

For half the season, half of the value of the above, that would be either Ellis or Gant and Dykstra.

I won't quibble about these guys, but I do want to say this isn't how valuation works. Garcia was guaranteed more money last winter, was not as removed from his injuries, was coming off a suspect performance trend in 2016 -- and the Braves (and other teams that may have pursued him last winter) had less probability of contention in 2017 than the Twins and other teams have today. It is quite likely that Garcia should return more value in trade now than he did last winter.

[drjim]

Straightforward, but also seems incomplete. Seth had Burdi as our #19 prospect, and that was before the draft. He was known to have missed most of 2016 with a bone bruise, and then had TJ surgery in May. I could see him being discussed for this trade, but unlikely that his medicals alone would torpedo it.

 

Was he the only top ~30 prospect the Twins were willing to consider dealing? Did the Twins hope to get some salary covered, or get an interesting minor leaguer back in return?

The first question is certainly interesting and probably unknowable by non front office people. The second part is certainly interesting, but probably moot if the Braves aren't willing to take on Burdi.

 

Perhaps Seth underrated Burdi?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Headline: Garcia pitched a great game last night.

Reality: 3 runs in 7 innings is an ERA close to 4 without pitching to a DH.

Blah.

 

Falvey - I'm ordering you not to trade any high potential player.

NL league ERA is 4.34 this year. Starter ERA is 4.46. A 3.86 ERA, in 7 innings, against the best offense in the NL (by wRC+), is pretty good. And it wasn't necessarily luck, as he also had a 2.44 FIP. Only took 91 pitches to get through 7 too, he could have possibly gone 8+ innings under different circumstances.

[biggentleben]

 

Maybe, but that's being stupid-picky. I'm not one to usually overvalue prospects but I'd be immensely disappointed if the Twins let Thorpe go for a middling starter rental.

 

Like I said, I understand. I just know they started the year with their two A-ball teams having paired starters because there were so many starters needing work, especially left handed starters.

 

I would love to see Thorpe in the Braves system. I'm happy I get to cover him in the Twins system. Win-win for me! LOL

[biggentleben]

 

Headline: Garcia pitched a great game last night.

Reality: 3 runs in 7 innings is an ERA close to 4 without pitching to a DH.

Blah.

 

Falvey - I'm ordering you not to trade any high potential player.

 

He did throw a tremendous game. If you watched the game, you would have seen the way he attacked the Dodgers hitters was something that hasn't happened to them in ages, so much so that their announcer (who is tremendous, btw) mentioned it multiple times. He was through 5 innings on less than 65 pitches. I think he could have been pulled earlier, but he had been through five without stress and worked through issues quickly all game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The first question is certainly interesting and probably unknowable by non front office people. The second part is certainly interesting, but probably moot if the Braves aren't willing to take on Burdi.

 

Perhaps Seth underrated Burdi?

Perhaps -- Sickels had him 11th, at C+/B-, but that was before TJ.

 

I'd be pretty surprised if the Braves valued him higher than that, but backed away based on medicals.

 

My gut feeling says the Braves were indeed concerned enough about the medicals to back away from the deal... but the Twins had already set up the contraints/parameters of said deal.

[biggentleben]

From what I mentioned on Cory's podcast, the Braves have a habit of targeting certain players, so it would make sense that they came to the Twins looking to get Burdi. The Twins then balked at something in Garcia's medicals and asked the Braves to pay more, based on people I know within the Braves. That suddenly made Burdi's medicals much more vital to the deal, and when they didn't come back clean, the Braves backed away.

[biggentleben]

 

Were there any reports they were ever eating money?

 

Multiple beat guys on both sides had tweets about negotiations about how much money would be split. I'd have to search for it, which is not something I'm going to worry to much about at this point with the deal dead, but it was discussed.

[Kwak]

So does this mean the trade "is off the table" and our discussion is pointless?  Or are these teams still in discussion?

[biggentleben]

 

So does this mean the trade "is off the table" and our discussion is pointless?  Or are these teams still in discussion?

 

Rosenthal's tweets indicated that the teams are still talking.

[Bill Brown69]

My bet is that it hinged on an extension being signed and this is the easy way for both sides to save face and come up with a plausible excuse for the fan base.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I wonder what the medicals could be, he just had the surgery 2 months ago...

some teams are so damn picky

[biggentleben]

 

some teams are so damn picky

 

I'd wager it was a flyer and the Braves wouldn't have even cared all that much on medicals when the Twins were paying every dollar, but when the Braves were taking on cash, they were more picky about those medicals.

[biggentleben]

 

My bet is that it hinged on an extension being signed and this is the easy way for both sides to save face and come up with a plausible excuse for the fan base.

 

I'd give that possibility a plausibility score of about 0.00000000001%

[Rosterman]

Well, when you look at Burdi, the earliest he MIGHT be ready is 2019, and you do have to start about thought on addng him to the 40-mam. Make that someone else's issue for a couple of years and revisit him yourself down the line. Whatever team see Burdi will have to be thinking the same.

[Riverbrian]

 

I'd wager it was a flyer and the Braves wouldn't have even cared all that much on medicals when the Twins were paying every dollar, but when the Braves were taking on cash, they were more picky about those medicals.

 

If cash is complicating this. I can't help wonder why. 

 

He's a rental. Just pay it. 

 

4 point whatever million. This is MLB Baseball and it's the price you pay for being in contention.  

 

If Money determines quality of prospect. Get the checkbook out and keep the higher ranked prospects at the same time. 

 

 

 

[biggentleben]

 

If cash is complicating this. I can't help wonder why. 

 

He's a rental. Just pay it. 

 

4 point whatever million. This is MLB Baseball and it's the price you pay for being in contention.  

 

If Money determines quality of prospect. Get the checkbook out and keep the higher ranked prospects at the same time. 

 

Absolutely always my perspective.

 

There is no such thing as a bad one year deal. If all else fails, you cut the guy before the year is done and eat the entire year early. You know you're getting rid of the guy at year-end anyway. When you know he's a rental, pay the cash, go for less of a prospect (or in this case the likelihood of the Braves not opening the book on Burdi's medicals and cancelling the deal).

[drock2190]

Anyone remember the prospect the Twins dealt in 2015 to get Jensen? He's in the majors now and could be a decent starter or reliever.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Anyone remember the prospect the Twins dealt in 2015 to get Jensen? He's in the majors now and could be a decent starter or reliever.

Hu?

[Riverbrian]

 

Absolutely always my perspective.

 

There is no such thing as a bad one year deal. If all else fails, you cut the guy before the year is done and eat the entire year early. You know you're getting rid of the guy at year-end anyway. When you know he's a rental, pay the cash, go for less of a prospect (or in this case the likelihood of the Braves not opening the book on Burdi's medicals and cancelling the deal).

 

I think I get it now... It's a profit deal

 

 

 

[jimbo92107]

 

They probably looked at Stewart's numbers! 30bb to only 33k in 52 innings. I'd pass too. Nothing against him personally but I just do not get why this guy is rated so highly.

If you're looking for an even trade, why send the Braves an above average, young pitching prospect for a below average, veteran mlb pitcher?

 

The Braves are at the early stages of their rebuild. The Twins are still a year from serious contention. Trading Burdi (or other guys a couple years out) makes more sense for the Twins than trading Stewart, who could be a solid mid-rotation starter next season and under contract for a few years beyond. 

 

It's still a bad move to start selling the farm for half a year of service. The Twins ain't going to the Series in 2017, oh my dog brothers. But that Jiffy Pop of minor league talent might start poppin' next spring. I expect to see more than a couple more guys get their feet wet with coffee come September.

 

We all expect to see Gonsalves, right? Today's rotation is Santana, Berrios, Mejia, Gibson, Colon. Gonsalves is better than the last three of those guys right now. Sleegers is probably better than Colon. Jorge will gradually get better, so he should go to AAA. We should see Garver for sure. 

 

Anyway, the Twins are still in the experimenting stage of building a possible Series contender. One year rentals like Garcia will not be part of that team, but some of the guys in AAA and AA right now may become pieces of the puzzle. Atlanta wants some of those pieces. I say screw them. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

For all the talk about the playoffs being a crapshoot, the reality is that this team has 20 MLBers on it's 25 man roster and the missing 5 are all pitchers. Garcia may be average, but an average starter is of considerable value. Burdi wasn't a name I suspected given the surgery, but I'd probably be willing to part with him for a rental. We have plenty of RP talent in the high minors, and while it's been frustrating to see it, Burdi has been one of the most frustrating given how often he seems to get hurt.

[biggentleben]

 

If you're looking for an even trade, why send the Braves an above average, young pitching prospect for a below average, veteran mlb pitcher?

 

The Braves are at the early stages of their rebuild. The Twins are still a year from serious contention. Trading Burdi (or other guys a couple years out) makes more sense for the Twins than trading Stewart, who could be a solid mid-rotation starter next season and under contract for a few years beyond. 

 

It's still a bad move to start selling the farm for half a year of service. The Twins ain't going to the Series in 2017, oh my dog brothers. But that Jiffy Pop of minor league talent might start poppin' next spring. I expect to see more than a couple more guys get their feet wet with coffee come September.

 

We all expect to see Gonsalves, right? Today's rotation is Santana, Berrios, Mejia, Gibson, Colon. Gonsalves is better than the last three of those guys right now. Sleegers is probably better than Colon. Jorge will gradually get better, so he should go to AAA. We should see Garver for sure. 

 

Anyway, the Twins are still in the experimenting stage of building a possible Series contender. One year rentals like Garcia will not be part of that team, but some of the guys in AAA and AA right now may become pieces of the puzzle. Atlanta wants some of those pieces. I say screw them. 

 

You do realize that the Braves and Twins have basically the same record, right?

 

The AL has been so mediocre this year that there's everyone hanging around the middle, leaving the Twins very near playoff contention while the Braves are roughly 10 games out of contention with nearly the same record.

 

Also, the Braves aren't at any "early stages", either. The team is expecting to compete for playoffs in 2018 and have financials set up to be able to possibly make a splash going into 2019 to push for a big piece for contention if needed. The top prospects in the system are primarily in AA/AAA or already getting major league time.

[amjgt]

Anyone remember the prospect the Twins dealt in 2015 to get Jensen? He's in the majors now and could be a decent starter or reliever.

8 innings in 4 relief appearances

[biggentleben]

 

For all the talk about the playoffs being a crapshoot, the reality is that this team has 20 MLBers on it's 25 man roster and the missing 5 are all pitchers. Garcia may be average, but an average starter is of considerable value. Burdi wasn't a name I suspected given the surgery, but I'd probably be willing to part with him for a rental. We have plenty of RP talent in the high minors, and while it's been frustrating to see it, Burdi has been one of the most frustrating given how often he seems to get hurt.

 

Burdi was surprising to me on the Braves end for pretty much all the reasons you mention...