Article: Deadline Primer: Strategies For Upgrading The Bullpen

[yarnivek1972]

My strategy: start by releasing Breslow and Belisle and option Pressly.  Call up Busenitz, Turley and Rucinski - he's earned another shot IMO.  In his last 10 appearances for Rochester, he's pitched 16 1/3 IP, given up 9 hits and 0 runs.  That's not 0 earned runs.  0 actual runs.  Last time he gave up a run in AAA was May 24.

 

Hildenberger should be tried in some higher leverage situations.  Today was a good start to that.  It was a 5 run lead, but it's still the Yankees and the 9th inning is always a different challenge for pitchers.  Or, it can be.

 

I think Duffey will probably be okay, but he needs his workload reduced.  It's apparent that he isn't as sharp as he was early on.

 

Busenitz and Rucinski can be the low leverage relievers until they show otherwise.  

 

Not sure what Turley will bring to the team as a reliever, but I definitely want to find out.

 

At some point Tonkin might make his way back.  Perhaps September. Earlier if the need arises. He also hasn't been scored on in a whlie - June 14 to be exact.

 

Maybe it's just my philosphy.  I'm a "see what's in the fridge first before I call for pizza delivery" guy.  Sometimes, something better can be there just waiting to be savored.

[old nurse]

 

My strategy: start by releasing Breslow and Belisle and option Pressly.  Call up Busenitz, Turley and Rucinski - he's earned another shot IMO.  In his last 10 appearances for Rochester, he's pitched 16 1/3 IP, given up 9 hits and 0 runs.  That's not 0 earned runs.  0 actual runs.  Last time he gave up a run in AAA was May 24.

 

Hildenberger should be tried in some higher leverage situations.  Today was a good start to that.  It was a 5 run lead, but it's still the Yankees and the 9th inning is always a different challenge for pitchers.  Or, it can be.

 

I think Duffey will probably be okay, but he needs his workload reduced.  It's apparent that he isn't as sharp as he was early on.

 

Busenitz and Rucinski can be the low leverage relievers until they show otherwise.  

 

Not sure what Turley will bring to the team as a reliever, but I definitely want to find out.

 

At some point Tonkin might make his way back.  Perhaps September. Earlier if the need arises. He also hasn't been scored on in a whlie - June 14 to be exact.

 

Maybe it's just my philosphy.  I'm a "see what's in the fridge first before I call for pizza delivery" guy.  Sometimes, something better can be there just waiting to be savored.

A lead of 4 runs or more is a very low leverage situation.

[yarnivek1972]

A lead of 4 runs or more is a very low leverage situation.

Baby steps.

[Monkeypaws]

Until the Twins exhaust their internal options, some of which look pretty promising, I wouldn't trade a thing for another relief pitcher. Heck, they drafted a bunch that are near ready: Curtiss, Bard, and Reed come to mind.

 

Rogers and Hildenberger worked out. Continue the trend.

[DocBauer]

My strategy: start by releasing Breslow and Belisle and option Pressly. Call up Busenitz, Turley and Rucinski - he's earned another shot IMO. In his last 10 appearances for Rochester, he's pitched 16 1/3 IP, given up 9 hits and 0 runs. That's not 0 earned runs. 0 actual runs. Last time he gave up a run in AAA was May 24.

 

Hildenberger should be tried in some higher leverage situations. Today was a good start to that. It was a 5 run lead, but it's still the Yankees and the 9th inning is always a different challenge for pitchers. Or, it can be.

 

I think Duffey will probably be okay, but he needs his workload reduced. It's apparent that he isn't as sharp as he was early on.

 

Busenitz and Rucinski can be the low leverage relievers until they show otherwise.

 

Not sure what Turley will bring to the team as a reliever, but I definitely want to find out.

 

At some point Tonkin might make his way back. Perhaps September. Earlier if the need arises. He also hasn't been scored on in a whlie - June 14 to be exact.

 

Maybe it's just my philosphy. I'm a "see what's in the fridge first before I call for pizza delivery" guy. Sometimes, something better can be there just waiting to be savored.

Really like this post a lot! Though I have doubts about Tonkin and Rucinski.

 

I'm not insisting the Twins stay pat for this season, and I'm not insisting they don't sign FA or two in the offseason. In fact, building a strong bullpen is a great way to offset some rotation issues. But if the Twins decide they've had enough of Belisle and Breslow at some point, staying pat for now and going in to next season:

 

RHRP:

Kintzler

Duffey

Pressly

Hildenberger

Chargois (unless a shoe drops)

Curtiss

Reed

Busentiz

 

LHRP:

Rogers

Boshers (sorry, quietly OK)

Turley (real potential there)

Melotakis

 

Again, love a FA or two, but actually like the RH side and potential quite a bit. Concerned about a second LH though.

 

But isn't it time over the next 2 1/2 months to continue the promotions/auditions?

[gman]

Kintzler is a free agent after the season. Will the Twins resign him? I doubt it. It would be nice if 3 or 4 of their ace relief prospects were taking regular turns in the bullpen before the season ends. I don't see Kintzler's replacement in the pen now but then before Kintzler got the job I didn't see that happening.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Help could come from within. Belisle and Pressly have shown signs of pulling it together. Trevor Hildenberger and Alan Busenitz look promising.

 

This was likely written before last night's game, because I am not sure what Pressly is pulling together...

 

The more and more I am looking at the pen, the more and more I think that the Twins should blow it up.   

 

Kintzel (2.18 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 3.98 xFIP, 82.9% LOB% & .254 BABIP)  will regress soon and when he does, he better wear another uniform.  His value is on its peak and if the Twins can get one good  prospect, instead of nothing when he leaves as a free agent, this will be a gain.

 

The killer Bees (Breslow, Belisle, Boshers) gotta go.  Pressly is the Gibson of the bullpen.  Lots of potential, but something in their heads tells them to throw fat pitches down the middle.

 

This leaves:  Duffey, Rogers, Hildy.  I'd do what the Wsux did with Sale and bring up Romero and have him pitch late in the games.  Then open up a revolving door and have the 3 hottest arms among (alphabetically) Bard, Bucenitz, Curtiss, Melotakis, Reed, Rosario, Turley, (and I would add Hildy to the rotation if he cools of.)  

 

As far as a closer goes, E. Santana and Dozier can be traded for a couple young controllable MLB-ready starters and a young controllable MLB-ready fireballer.

 

That's what I would do.

[hugelycat]

 

My strategy: start by releasing Breslow and Belisle and option Pressly.  Call up Busenitz, Turley and Rucinski - he's earned another shot IMO.  In his last 10 appearances for Rochester, he's pitched 16 1/3 IP, given up 9 hits and 0 runs.  That's not 0 earned runs.  0 actual runs.  Last time he gave up a run in AAA was May 24.

 

Hildenberger should be tried in some higher leverage situations.  Today was a good start to that.  It was a 5 run lead, but it's still the Yankees and the 9th inning is always a different challenge for pitchers.  Or, it can be.

 

I think Duffey will probably be okay, but he needs his workload reduced.  It's apparent that he isn't as sharp as he was early on.

 

Busenitz and Rucinski can be the low leverage relievers until they show otherwise.  

 

Not sure what Turley will bring to the team as a reliever, but I definitely want to find out.

 

At some point Tonkin might make his way back.  Perhaps September. Earlier if the need arises. He also hasn't been scored on in a whlie - June 14 to be exact.

 

Maybe it's just my philosphy.  I'm a "see what's in the fridge first before I call for pizza delivery" guy.  Sometimes, something better can be there just waiting to be savored.

 

Lots of good ideas here. Hildenberger has been great, better than we could have expected, time to see what he can do in higher leverage situations. And Duffey has been struggling for a while, time to ease up and hopefully get him closer to how he was early this season.

 

I would release Breslow, and I'd send down Pressly. I think Pressly is a much better pitcher than this, but it's time to try out some other guys. However, I'd keep Belisle, albeit on a short leash. He's been surprisingly good this month: 6.2 IP, 6k, 1bb, 4 hits, 0 runs. I'd give him a chance to keep that up.

I still want to see what we have in some of our minor league relievers. Calling up the minor leaguers should benefit us both this year, and in the future. It's better to get these guys some experience now, when we're on the bubble, so the best of the bunch will be part of the core when we're in our prime for contention over the next few years. I'd call up John Curtiss first, he's been outright dominant the past two years. Busenitz or Rucinski next. Not quite ready to move Turley to relief yet, because we could still use a starter if he can figure things out.

 

That said, if we can get a mid-range MLB reliever for a non-prospect, great, go ahead (ex: Mulvey for Rauch). Goes without saying, but we should do anything that helps make the playoffs without costing anything significant.  Just don't trade future value for short-term relief help.

[Linus]

My strategy: start by releasing Breslow and Belisle and option Pressly. Call up Busenitz, Turley and Rucinski - he's earned another shot IMO. In his last 10 appearances for Rochester, he's pitched 16 1/3 IP, given up 9 hits and 0 runs. That's not 0 earned runs. 0 actual runs. Last time he gave up a run in AAA was May 24.

 

Hildenberger should be tried in some higher leverage situations. Today was a good start to that. It was a 5 run lead, but it's still the Yankees and the 9th inning is always a different challenge for pitchers. Or, it can be.

 

I think Duffey will probably be okay, but he needs his workload reduced. It's apparent that he isn't as sharp as he was early on.

 

Busenitz and Rucinski can be the low leverage relievers until they show otherwise.

 

Not sure what Turley will bring to the team as a reliever, but I definitely want to find out.

 

At some point Tonkin might make his way back. Perhaps September. Earlier if the need arises. He also hasn't been scored on in a whlie - June 14 to be exact.

 

Maybe it's just my philosphy. I'm a "see what's in the fridge first before I call for pizza delivery" guy. Sometimes, something better can be there just waiting to be savored.

[USAFChief]

I wish the Twins would for once decide to play big boy baseball and do some things to actually compete at a high level.

 

Do the Yankees sit around and wait for AA prospects? No, they find a way to sell shiny prospects for a guy with a 15 K/9 and 60/7 K/BB ratio.

 

They actually DO something.

 

The minor leagues are not going to solve the Twins pen issues in 2017, despite the repeated proclamations of the last three years. And there's no reason to think today's proclamations of help on the horizon will fix things next year, either. For all the bluster about the tremendous arms the Twins amassed, they've got Tyler Rogers to show for it.

 

Let someone else wait on dreams. Go get some legit help.

[AKTwins]

I'm in favor of a Pat Light-Abad type trade, where we get an Abad. We have plenty of fireball types who could only be 4A types players. I'm thinking Tonkin and Mason

[WLFINN]

 

I'm in favor of a Pat Light-Abad type trade, where we get an Abad. We have plenty of fireball types who could only be 4A types players. I'm thinking Tonkin and Mason

Except anyone could have gotten Tonkin and Mason for free.....and they didn't....

[Otto von Ballpark]

Except anyone could have gotten Tonkin and Mason for free.....and they didn't....

They actually have a little more value now that they are off the 40-man roster. Except I think Tonkin will be eligible for minor league free agency in a couple months unless he is added back.

 

Pat Light was darn near that point of low value when we acquired him.

 

Of course, an Abad type pitcher might be pretty worthless too. I'd rather go big or promote a minor leaguer.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I wish the Twins would for once decide to play big boy baseball and do some things to actually compete at a high level.

Do the Yankees sit around and wait for AA prospects? No, they find a way to sell shiny prospects for a guy with a 15 K/9 and 60/7 K/BB ratio.

They actually DO something.

The minor leagues are not going to solve the Twins pen issues in 2017, despite the repeated proclamations of the last three years. And there's no reason to think today's proclamations of help on the horizon will fix things next year, either. For all the bluster about the tremendous arms the Twins amassed, they've got Tyler Rogers to show for it.

Let someone else wait on dreams. Go get some legit help.

 

You realize the Yankees traded off players, while playing .500 ball, to get all those excess minor league players, and have a system considered better than the Twins (before this year started), right?

 

I asked in another thread, what price, for what upgrade? Like, 2 of their best prospects for Gray (who isn't nearly as good as Quintana)? Or, a mediocre player for a mediocre RP or two?

[Willihammer]

 

You realize the Yankees traded off players, while playing .500 ball, to get all those excess minor league players, and have a system considered better than the Twins (before this year started), right?

Do the Twins have a Chapman / Miller type to trade?

 

Even if they did, would a similar return be out there this year?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do the Twins have a Chapman / Miller type to trade?

 

Even if they did, would a similar return be out there this year?

 

they don't. Well, I think Santana might be worth that. But the point was, they traded players when they were around .500, and that gave them good depth to trade from in future years. Kind of like what some of us wanted done before the year started. Kind of like what some people want (I'm not currently on one side or the other) now.

 

edit to add:

I wonder if this year's Yankees players are playing so badly because the FO gave up on the team last year /s.....

Edited July 20, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Willihammer]

@Mike, I agree the 2017 Twins are analogous to the 2016 Yankees.... on the surface. There are some key differences that blow that apart however.

 

1. The 2016 Yankees were 6.5 games back and behind 5 other teams for the 2nd wild card spot. The 2017 Twins are in a much better spot vis a vis the playoff picture.

 

2. The 2016 Yankees had more premium trade assets.

 

3. The 2016 trade market seemed to favor sellers much more than the 2017 market. We haven't seen anything like the multiple top-100 prospects for a rental like the Chapman trade was, for example.

 

As others have noted, there is no guarantee the Twins will be in such a good spot next deadline. And if they aren't, it would be good to have a legit trade chip like Gray (if healthy). Seems possible, maybe even likely, the market will be more favorable to sellers next year and the Twins could profit from the arbitrage if nothing else (minus a little time decay).

[Mike Sixel]

 

@Mike, I agree the 2017 Twins are analogous to the 2016 Yankees.... on the surface. There are some key differences that blow that apart however.

 

1. The 2016 Yankees were 6.5 games back and behind 5 other teams for the 2nd wild card spot. The 2017 Twins are in a much better spot vis a vis the playoff picture.

 

2. The 2016 Yankees had more premium trade assets.

 

3. The 2016 trade market seemed to favor sellers much more than the 2017 market. We haven't seen anything like the multiple top-100 prospects for a rental like the Chapman trade was, for example.

 

As others have noted, there is no guarantee the Twins will be in such a good spot next deadline. And if they aren't, it would be good to have a legit trade chip like Gray (if healthy). Seems possible, maybe even likely, the market will be more favorable to sellers next year and the Twins could profit from the arbitrage if nothing else (minus a little time decay).

 

Agree with nearly all of that. It's about the cost, and about if you believe in Gray.

 

I don't know if we have seen all the "big" trades yet. I guess the Quintana trade does not agree with you that no big trades have happened this year, and we are still 10ish days from the deadline. We'll see what happens.

 

edit: Oops, I missed you said rentals.

 

Other than Santana, I don't think the Twins have an asset teams would value super highly (that is available). Kintzler is an interesting case. he's a FA, and he's been good. I would keep him, unless they lose a lot the next 10 days. I'm on the "trade marginal prospect(s) for MLB player(s)" side right now. That's especially true because I don't think they are willing to promote guys I would promote right now.

Edited July 20, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[USAFChief]

Here's an idea...If you took on all the money, I bet you could get Justin Verlander and Justin Wilson from Detroit for virtually nothing.

 

Verlander is owed a lot of money, but he's only 34 and one season removed from 220 innings of 3 ERA, his K rate and BB rates are still good, and he'd be a clear upgrade in the rotation for now and the foreseeable future.  And the Twins have the money.  What else are they going to do with it?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Here's an idea...If you took on all the money, I bet you could get Justin Verlander and Justin Wilson from Detroit for virtually nothing.

 

Verlander is owed a lot of money, but he's only 34 and one season removed from 220 innings of 3 ERA, his K rate and BB rates are still good, and he'd be a clear upgrade in the rotation for now and the foreseeable future.  And the Twins have the money.  What else are they going to do with it?

 

It's an interesting thought. I have no idea if it is a good idea, or a realistic idea.

 

Why would teh Tigers give them away? What do they get out of the deal? Do we think they'll spend that money next year, or is it just saving money? Does anyone have any idea what the ownership a: is; and b: what they want? I don't.

[drjim]

 

Here's an idea...If you took on all the money, I bet you could get Justin Verlander and Justin Wilson from Detroit for virtually nothing.

 

Verlander is owed a lot of money, but he's only 34 and one season removed from 220 innings of 3 ERA, his K rate and BB rates are still good, and he'd be a clear upgrade in the rotation for now and the foreseeable future.  And the Twins have the money.  What else are they going to do with it?

 

I've even give something up, like a Gonsalves, maybe another piece.

[USAFChief]

 

It's an interesting thought. I have no idea if it is a good idea, or a realistic idea.

 

Why would teh Tigers give them away? What do they get out of the deal? Do we think they'll spend that money next year, or is it just saving money? Does anyone have any idea what the ownership a: is; and b: what they want? I don't.

Verlander is almost certainly on the market as Detroit looks to get younger and cheaper.  They're going to have a hard time getting rid of the contract, he's owed $56M over 2018 and 19 (with a vesting option at $22M for 2020 if he finishes top 5 in CY voting in 2019.)

 

That's a lot of money, but there's no real reason the Twins couldn't absorb that, IMO.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Verlander is almost certainly on the market as Detroit looks to get younger and cheaper.  They're going to have a hard time getting rid of the contract, he's owed $56M over 2018 and 19 (with a vesting option at $22M for 2020 if he finishes top 5 in CY voting in 2019.)

 

That's a lot of money, but there's no real reason the Twins couldn't absorb that, IMO.

 

I actually think this is a great idea. He's a rotation upgrade and wont' cost much other than cash. It's not my money, but you can keep the farm system in tact and get a big piece that would be of immense help right now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Verlander is almost certainly on the market as Detroit looks to get younger and cheaper.  They're going to have a hard time getting rid of the contract, he's owed $56M over 2018 and 19 (with a vesting option at $22M for 2020 if he finishes top 5 in CY voting in 2019.)

 

That's a lot of money, but there's no real reason the Twins couldn't absorb that, IMO.

 

well, ya, but you said you'd give them nothing in return, so not sure how they are getting younger, unless you just mean they'll promote someone, and not add anything to the minors.

 

I wouldn't give up Gonsalves and more, like jim, but I'd certainly give up a few pieces the FO doesn't have a ton of faith in.

[ahart10]

Here's an idea...If you took on all the money, I bet you could get Justin Verlander and Justin Wilson from Detroit for virtually nothing.

 

Verlander is owed a lot of money, but he's only 34 and one season removed from 220 innings of 3 ERA, his K rate and BB rates are still good, and he'd be a clear upgrade in the rotation for now and the foreseeable future. And the Twins have the money. What else are they going to do with it?

I like the idea, you could even throw in a 3rd Justin. Verlander might not be willing to come here though.

[USAFChief]

 

I like the idea, you could even throw in a 3rd Justin. Verlander might not be willing to come here though.

true, he has a no trade.

[USAFChief]

 

well, ya, but you said you'd give them nothing in return, so not sure how they are getting younger, unless you just mean they'll promote someone, and not add anything to the minors.

 

I wouldn't give up Gonsalves and more, like jim, but I'd certainly give up a few pieces the FO doesn't have a ton of faith in.

well, I said "virtually nothing."  You'd have to give Detroit some minor league assets, but nothing that anyone would be upset about.

[Mike Sixel]

 

well, I said "virtually nothing."  You'd have to give Detroit some minor league assets, but nothing that anyone would be upset about.

 

then I'm all in. well, maybe. Depends on what their budget is and if this keep them from adding 2 RPs and a good FA Starter next year....then I am not sure.

[USAFChief]

 

then I'm all in. well, maybe. Depends on what their budget is and if this keep them from adding 2 RPs and a good FA Starter next year....then I am not sure.

just deleting Hector Santiago and Kyle Gibson from 2018 saves $11, not even counting what Gibson would get as a raise in arb.  Mauer's deal is up after 2018.

 

I refuse to let the Twins use money as an issue.  There is no financial reason the Twins can't be spending another $30-$40M on salary, IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

 

just deleting Hector Santiago and Kyle Gibson from 2018 saves $11, not even counting what Gibson would get as a raise in arb.

 

I refuse to let the Twins use money as an issue.  There is no financial reason the Twins can't be spending another $30-$40M on salary, IMO.

 

you and I agree on that, I don't have any idea what their plan is!