Article: Deadline Primer: Strategies For Upgrading The Bullpen

[Nick Nelson]

Is the Twins' bullpen hopeless?

 

It can be easy to feel that way, with the stable of hopeful minor-league reinforcements sabotaged by injuries, and several planned key contributors – such as Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow – scuffling through ugly seasons.

 

But this also ignores the fact that Minnesota features two of the game's better relievers at the back end in Brandon Kintzler and Taylor Rogers, as well as a number of other usable parts. Improving the unit to the point of respectability doesn't need to be an overwhelmingly difficult or costly proposition.It's accurate to say the bullpen has been a considerable weakness for the Twins overall, and yet, per Win Probability Added, they have two of the league's four most valuable firemen. Kintzler ranks third in the AL in WPA, trailing only Andrew Miller and Craig Kimbrel. Rogers is right him behind in fourth place.

 

After those two, it hasn't been very pretty for the Twins. Tyler Duffey and Buddy Boshers look capable, but should probably both be bumped down a notch on the leverage totem pole. One or two more legit late-inning options would make a world of difference for this unit.

 

Help could come from within. Belisle and Pressly have shown signs of pulling it together. Trevor Hildenberger and Alan Busenitz look promising. But if we're being honest, this team needs to add from outside if it wants to be any kind of serious player in the final months.

 

Walking a Fine Line

General manager Thad Levine indicated recently that the club will not "be inclined to spend lavishly on short-term assets," preferring to add only controllable players when giving up a significant return.

 

That's the right mindset, at least with regard to supplementing the rotation. The front office should be looking for starters it can keep beyond this year rather than going all-in on an extreme longshot.

 

On the relief side, though, the story is a little different. Such players are volatile commodities, and in the past, Minnesota has been bitten by paying extra for added control with these upgrades. Matt Capps and Kevin Jepsen inescapably come to mind.

 

So the smart bet is for the Twins to find a rental or two for which they won't have to "spend lavishly." It might mean waiting until August; they've had some success there in the past, acquiring players like Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes in August while giving up little.

 

Or they could get a bit more aggressive and take a cue from the Nationals.

 

Eyes on Washington

The Nats laid out the blueprint last week for what a midseason bullpen boost should look like. In a deal with the last-place Athletics, they acquired veterans Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. Both are hugely valuable additions, but neither carries the price-inflating closer title. In fact, Washington received the duo on pretty reasonable terms.

 

For their part, the Nationals sent Oakland Blake Treinen, an inconsistent fireballer much more interesting for a team that can patiently work with him than he is for a contender. (Pressly, anyone?)

 

The Nats also packaged a pair of good, yet unspectacular, prospects in 19-year-old left-hander Jesus Luzardo and third baseman Sheldon Neuse. For comps in the Twins system, think Lewis Thorpe and Travis Blankenhorn.

 

Madson and Doolittle both have contracts extending into 2018, which is a little unnerving, but they are a clear cut above the Cappses and Jepsens of the world. Such a deal would fit with Levine's stated desire to bring in help for this year and beyond, while also adding veteran leadership to the pen, and not in the form of Breslisle mediocrity.

 

Every situation is unique, so who knows if the Twins could pull off something similar, but the bottom line here is that "buying" at the deadline doesn't necessarily mean mortgaging the future. With a savvy approach, you can have it both ways, rewarding this upstart group for exceeding expectations and supporting their efforts to overtake a complacent Cleveland club, while still adhering to a responsible big-picture view.

 

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[USAFChief]

They wouldn't have to "pull off something similar" had they pulled off that exact thing.

 

Every day they wait thins the available pitchers and exposes the current pen to another game.

[jun]

I do NOT want to see Pressly pitch for the Twins anymore this season. Call up Busenitz and send him down please.

[JustinCB]

How bout trade kintzler and let Rogers close. Be nice to be on the other side of that whole Capps thing this time. I will eat my shoe if he keeps this up next year.

[HitInAPinch]

Ugh.  Just when I thought I'd flushed the names of Capps, Jepsen, Rauch and Fuentes out of my mind......

 

So, who do the Twins have to trade that will get them some Madson and Doolittle types?  Seems those are exactly the types of guys they need to bridge the gap to Rogers and Duffey to Kintzler. Could a pair similar to Madson and Doolittle be what we can expect in a Dozier trade?  

[Riverbrian]

The Yankees just added Robertson and Kahnle

 

The Yankees we're already very strong in the bullpen with Chapman, Betances and Warren. 

 

If a strong bullpen feels the need to get better?

 

The Indians reached the World Series with their bullpen

 

The Royals reached the World Series in 2015 and 2014 with their bullpen. 

 

I'd like the Twins to get real bullpen serious. 

 

 

[Tomj14]

 

Ugh.  Just when I thought I'd flushed the names of Capps, Jepsen, Rauch and Fuentes out of my mind......

 

So, who do the Twins have to trade that will get them some Madson and Doolittle types?  Seems those are exactly the types of guys they need to bridge the gap to Rogers and Duffey to Kintzler. Could a pair similar to Madson and Doolittle be what we can expect in a Dozier trade?  

You are not really suggesting we trade Dozier for relief pitchers are you? Currently we have a hitting holes in CF, SS and C and you want to trade our starting 2B for relief pitching? Creating another hole in the lineup with nobody to replace him?

I agree with need relief pitching but I strongly disagree with this approach.

[mikelink45]

Right now we have two options - trade ( and I have no idea when that would be) and keep trying out the minor leaguers and let those who have already failed move out of the way.  I want to see the minor league arms filling out the pen for now.

[Vanimal46]

 

Right now we have two options - trade ( and I have no idea when that would be) and keep trying out the minor leaguers and let those who have already failed move out of the way.  I want to see the minor league arms filling out the pen for now.

 

They should do both options... Trade a non-essential prospect, or an older prospect the FO doesn't have faith in for a RP. And get rid of the failed RPs on roster (Breslow, Pressly, Belisle) for minor leaguers. Reed and Curtiss should be on an advanced development schedule to get them to the majors ASAP. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I can say this... I'd rather not dumster dive for RPs this offseason. I think Hildenberger is the real thing, and I like Busenitz too, but instead of a Breslow type, go out and spend the money on a good FA. I'd be comfortable with a pen to start 2018 that consisted of Hildenberger, Busenitz, Chargois, FA, and Rogers. The manager will have options so that one guy isn't overworked. Still not sure what to do with Duffey though.

[Mike Sixel]

someone expected Breslow to be a key contributor? That person should be fired right now.

[nater79a]

Those are pretty much the same comps I came up with regards to the Nats trade. I was thinking Duffey, Blankenhorn, Thorpe. I would hate to give up Blanky though, think he could be really good.

[Mike Sixel]

Last year, several of us called for Rogers to be made a bullpen arm at the beginning of the year. Everyone on the planet knew that was his future, but it took time to do. No idea why.

 

I suggest moving Turley to the bullpen, and calling him up. I suggest calling Buesnitz back up. I suggest using the assets they have in the most productive way, not leaving them in the minors and hoping they become something they are not ever going to be. Start there, and see what happens. But using Breslow does nothing for the present, and nothing for the future. It's, frankly, not explainable.

[jorgenswest]

The comps are close but they would need to do better than Thorpe to comp Luzardo. Thorpe's injury history is compounded by the need to make a 40 man roster decision. The Nats have a lot of time to work with Luzardo.

[Steve Lein]

I would like to see the Twins add an arm to at least get Belisle out of the bullpen, but I'm not really willing to give up any top prospects for somebody. I'd hate to give up Thorpe and Blankenhorn for what the Nats got, as an example. I know that's the price, but I don't think that's the move to make this year —unless the new guys don't believe in those guys from the old regime. But I wouldn't change my judgement on that until a few years down the line if that's what ends up happening. 

 

 

[drjim]

Last year, several of us called for Rogers to be made a bullpen arm at the beginning of the year. Everyone on the planet knew that was his future, but it took time to do. No idea why.

 

I suggest moving Turley to the bullpen, and calling him up. I suggest calling Buesnitz back up. I suggest using the assets they have in the most productive way, not leaving them in the minors and hoping they become something they are not ever going to be. Start there, and see what happens. But using Breslow does nothing for the present, and nothing for the future. It's, frankly, not explainable.

Rogers had a cameo in April and was up for good by mid-May. That's a reasonable timeline.

 

I do endorse the rest of the plan. Breslow does nothing for the franchise now or in the future.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Rogers had a cameo in April and was up for good by mid-May. That's a reasonable timeline.

I do endorse the rest of the plan. Breslow does nothing for the franchise now or in the future.

 

I realized after I hit "post" that I typed that timeline up wrong....and that it was really the previous year I wanted him converted while the Twins were good, and they needed bullpen help.

 

Kind of like this year, and Turley and possibly others being in a similar position as Rogers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The comps are close but they would need to do better than Thorpe to comp Luzardo. Thorpe's injury history is compounded by the need to make a 40 man roster decision. The Nats have a lot of time to work with Luzardo.

That is fair. I assume you are referring to the fact that Luzardo already had TJ surgery too? Thorpe is a little more proven/advanced now, though -- should throw a few more innings this year, already looks ready for AA.

 

I was thinking Ynoa or Graterol as Luzardo comps.

 

Would probably come down to Oakland's scouting (same would apply to other pieces in the deal), but I feel like these offers would have been competitive, could have gotten counter offers.

[ThejacKmp]

 

You are not really suggesting we trade Dozier for relief pitchers are you? Currently we have a hitting holes in CF, SS and C and you want to trade our starting 2B for relief pitching? Creating another hole in the lineup with nobody to replace him?

I agree with need relief pitching but I strongly disagree with this approach.

 

I'm not sure we have a hole at SS. Between Adrianza, Escobar and Polanco the Twins have three perfectly adequate options at SS. Not to mention Vielma and Gordon in the mix for 2018. In fact, you can make an argument that the Twins need to open a spot at 2B in the next 9 months.

 

CF seems like a stretch too. Buxton's defense and pedigree make any CF pickup a strange call. Especially since Kepler and Rosario can each play an adequate back up CF and Granite's issue is not defense.

 

Catcher has also been fine and if you're looking for a solution, Garver in AAA seems like the best one.

 

Dozier needs to be traded for starting pitching. Nothing else.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Those are pretty much the same comps I came up with regards to the Nats trade. I was thinking Duffey, Blankenhorn, Thorpe. I would hate to give up Blanky though, think he could be really good.

 
I can never give up on the Thorpedo.

 

I'd like to see the Twins make a minor move for a Neshek type, send Pressley to the minors til September, cut Belisle and bring up some of the AA and AAA arms and see who sticks.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Still not sure what to do with Duffey though.

 

I wonder if the Twins leaned on Duffey too much early in the year. He was one of the few dependable relievers and he was out there multiple innings day in and day out for a team that was exceeding expectations. That's tough for a guy with a limited professional relief profile.

 

I'd like to see Duffey in the pen next year and hope that a better pen uses him less frequently. He has the stuff to be a really nice late inning reliever.

[Tomj14]

 

I'm not sure we have a hole at SS. Between Adrianza, Escobar and Polanco the Twins have three perfectly adequate options at SS. Not to mention Vielma and Gordon in the mix for 2018. In fact, you can make an argument that the Twins need to open a spot at 2B in the next 9 months.

 

CF seems like a stretch too. Buxton's defense and pedigree make any CF pickup a strange call. Especially since Kepler and Rosario can each play an adequate back up CF and Granite's issue is not defense.

 

Catcher has also been fine and if you're looking for a solution, Garver in AAA seems like the best one.

 

Dozier needs to be traded for starting pitching. Nothing else.

As I said "Currently we have a hitting holes in CF, SS and C" And for most of the year we have had a hole at C, SS and CF and adding another at 2B, is half of the lineup. Of the names you listed I don't see any that have proven they deserve to be a full-time starter, I see a bunch of utility guys and a fingers crossed (Gordon) that he ever becomes a fulltime player.

With that being said if Dozier and parts could bring back a top end starter I would do it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the people on the board begging for trade for a middle infielder next year.

[SirLoin]

I would look really hard at what Baltimore is offering for bullpen help....

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2722444-orioles-trade-rumors-seth-smith-top-relievers-reportedly-available

 

Britton is probably price prohibitive, but Brach and even O'Day would be significant upgrades.

[beckmt]

Actually Britton might be less expensive than Brach, money plus control

[Brandon]

I would be real happy if we aquired Brach. Neshek is the other reliever i would like to target.

[ThejacKmp]

 

As I said "Currently we have a hitting holes in CF, SS and C" And for most of the year we have had a hole at C, SS and CF and adding another at 2B, is half of the lineup. Of the names you listed I don't see any that have proven they deserve to be a full-time starter, I see a bunch of utility guys and a fingers crossed (Gordon) that he ever becomes a fulltime player.

With that being said if Dozier and parts could bring back a top end starter I would do it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the people on the board begging for trade for a middle infielder next year.

 

When a guy goes on the 10 day DL I don't think that you stop making plans because of it. CF is not a hole, Buxton will get at least til 2019 to develop out there. C is a league-average situation.

 

SS is pretty set too - none of those guys is a star but between the three I think you're okay in the present and can likely cover 2B as well. And Gordon is not really a fingers-crossed kind of prospect - he's a high floor, medium ceiling kind of guy and a top 100 prospect. I get things can go wrong but I'm not at all concerned about him. Vielma's glove is MLB ready but he's more of a utility guy. That's a lot of depth in the middle infield.

 

I also would never make moves based on the TD boards. Man, that would be chaos. If they trade Dozier for a legit starting pitcher, that would be smart. Gotta find the right guy though.

[DocBauer]

Agree on Turley as a RP. Could be a find for a shorter stint...if he could just better control of that curve! Bring up Besentiz. I'm OK with Pressly going down until September. He's got the arm, but no consistency at all this season. We also have Curtiss and Rees to look at, at some point.

 

Kintzler, FA, Rogers, Hildenberger, Chargois, Busentiz are all nice pieces to potentially build around next season. Maybe a flier on a LH coming off a bad year, or a failed SP prospect converted to a relief role.

[gman]

Part of our current bullpen situation appears to be usage related. It would be nice to have May, the Duffey from early in the year and Pressly from last year available. Tonkin even looked accceptable early last year, until Moliter continued to use him as a multi inning pitcher. Unfortunately, Rogers is beginning to look like an overuse candidate.

 

Speaking of bullpen usage, in todays game Montgomery gave up 6 runs to the Twins in the second inning but was not removed. Then pitched 3 shutout innings(so far). A Twins starter would not have been allowed to do that. Maybe our starters can't, except for Santana.

[Tomj14]

 

When a guy goes on the 10 day DL I don't think that you stop making plans because of it. CF is not a hole, Buxton will get at least til 2019 to develop out there. C is a league-average situation.

 

SS is pretty set too - none of those guys is a star but between the three I think you're okay in the present and can likely cover 2B as well. And Gordon is not really a fingers-crossed kind of prospect - he's a high floor, medium ceiling kind of guy and a top 100 prospect. I get things can go wrong but I'm not at all concerned about him. Vielma's glove is MLB ready but he's more of a utility guy. That's a lot of depth in the middle infield.

 

I also would never make moves based on the TD boards. Man, that would be chaos. If they trade Dozier for a legit starting pitcher, that would be smart. Gotta find the right guy though.

For most of the year Buxton has been a fairly easy out. Below .200 BA, below .300 OBP, and 88K in 257 at. I personally would pencil him in CF for the next 2 years and not once think about trading him.

Polanco and Castro are both hitting ~.220.

So I think it is more than fair to say those 3 have been offensive liabilities and trading Dozier means there is a very good chance of our new 2B (or SS) will be about the same.

I really hope Nick Gordon turns into a solid major leaguer, but being realistic it is barely better than 50/50.

 

[jun]

As I said "Currently we have a hitting holes in CF, SS and C" And for most of the year we have had a hole at C, SS and CF and adding another at 2B, is half of the lineup. Of the names you listed I don't see any that have proven they deserve to be a full-time starter, I see a bunch of utility guys and a fingers crossed (Gordon) that he ever becomes a fulltime player.

With that being said if Dozier and parts could bring back a top end starter I would do it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the people on the board begging for trade for a middle infielder next year.

If Polanco does not start at SS most of the time, we should not have a hitting hole at SS.