Article: Rooker Promoted: Aggressive, or No?

[Seth Stohs]

 

There's plenty of older guys doing well in said league. You don't promote on age, you promote based on it being an appropriate location for where you are. The old guys still struggling are the ones who get released.

 

To me, age relative to league average is a good metric.

 

It is because it's consistent and gives context. A guy who is 3 years younger than average and holding his own is likely a better prospect than a guy who is 1 year older than average. We get that... but there are variables, like college/JC/HS draft, where they're from, etc.,

[mlhouse]

WHile this was an aggressive move by the Twins organization standard, it was not an aggressive move.  A player like Rooker should start in the short-season A league, but the Twins don't even have an affiliation.

 

If you look at past history the Twins have routinely put their college draft picks in Rk+ Elizabethton and then promoted a few to A- Cedar Rapids.  I am sure they think that is aggressive enough, and as far as that goes it is fine.  THe problem is that they hold almost everyone of those prospects to Cedar Rapids the following year and then move them up stepwise.  

 

I get it with young high school players, but college players are 3-4 years older.  Look at Mitch Garver and a lot of the collge pitching draft choices.  They aren't reaching the majors until they are 25-26 years of age.  That is too slow.

[70charger]

 

WHile this was an aggressive move by the Twins organization standard, it was not an aggressive move.  A player like Rooker should start in the short-season A league, but the Twins don't even have an affiliation.

 

If you look at past history the Twins have routinely put their college draft picks in Rk+ Elizabethton and then promoted a few to A- Cedar Rapids.  I am sure they think that is aggressive enough, and as far as that goes it is fine.  THe problem is that they hold almost everyone of those prospects to Cedar Rapids the following year and then move them up stepwise.  

 

I get it with young high school players, but college players are 3-4 years older.  Look at Mitch Garver and a lot of the collge pitching draft choices.  They aren't reaching the majors until they are 25-26 years of age.  That is too slow.

 

I assume you're referring to something like the New York-Penn League when you say that the Twins don't have an affiliation? I think that that's considered "Rookie Advanced." That is, it's below the level of Elizabethton, which is Class A Short Season.

 

If you're going to argue about the Twins not being aggressive enough because they put their college picks at Elizabethton by saying that instead they "should start in the short-season A league," then I think you're off base, both about where they put their prospects and what level that league is at.

 

I also think it's an overgeneralization to claim that each player moves in lockstep. That's just demonstrably false.

[nicksaviking]

To me it makes little sense to have guys drafted out of the SEC, ACC or other power conferences to ever go to rookie leagues except for a wood bat tune up, and even then I don't see the issue with adjusting to wood bats in A ball.

 

I'd also bet lots of GMs feel the same. But most organizational players don't get demotions, they get released and I'd also guess that the rookie leagues are much more likely to be filled with players who appear certain to washout. Meaning there's rosters to fill in the rookie leagues and the higher up you go, the better players you have to cut loose.

 

There probably are teams (maybe this one) that are conservative or hesitant or coddle guys or whatever way we like to describe it. But most teams still do it and we don't view all teams in these terms. So I'd guess it's systematic. Though I'm usually for trying something new.

[Monkeypaws]

Nice read Seth - one area I think the Twins are woefully unagressive is in the area of relief pitchers.

 

Just watching a lot of ball this year, and there are a lot of hard throwing relievers in the game that seem pretty young, raw, but effective.

 

We seem to sit on out relievers until they are 25-26, which is longer than other teams in my unscientific study.

[mlhouse]

 

I assume you're referring to something like the New York-Penn League when you say that the Twins don't have an affiliation? I think that that's considered "Rookie Advanced." That is, it's below the level of Elizabethton, which is Class A Short Season.

 

If you're going to argue about the Twins not being aggressive enough because they put their college picks at Elizabethton by saying that instead they "should start in the short-season A league," then I think you're off base, both about where they put their prospects and what level that league is at.

 

I also think it's an overgeneralization to claim that each player moves in lockstep. That's just demonstrably false.

 

 

You realize you are wrong. 

 

Elizabethton IS NOT SHORT SEASON A.  It is rookie league, advanced Rookie, but still considered rookie league.  For the Twins, it is above their Gulf Coast League team that playes in Ft Myers.  

 

But, Short Season A ball is above the rookie league and teams that have affiliations at this level usually send their college draft picks to this level.  The Twins, without a short season A team almost exclusively send their college draft picks to Elizabethton and a few advanced high school players (Alex Kiriloff started there).  They usually send their high school draft picks and some junior college players, as well as the occasional late signign college player to GCL. 

 

I believe the Twins should consider affiliating with a short season A team because for college draft picks, Rooker as a good example, the Pioneer League simply isn't competitive enough.  It is a waste of time and because of the lack of competition the Twins lose a critical period in evaluating the players.  

 

 

[jimbo92107]

 

Interesting article. Personally I don't think there's any positive correlation between age and performance. If there was we should all be excited about acquiring Colon.

 

When a player demonstrates he can handle the level of competition where he's at, he should be moved up. Notice I said "handle", not dominate. Nobody learns anything new by dominating competitors of lesser ability because there's no incentive to do so. People who aren't challenged stagnate.

Agreed. However, I believe the Twins should be a bit more conservative with Royce Lewis. They should demur from promoting him further for at least another two weeks. I think one bump per month should be sufficient.  ;-)

[108Stitches]

Umm Tyler Wells is the EXACT average for the Midwest league. Age 22. I swear some people act like they're playing against little leaguers so they shouldn't be considered good.

[70charger]

 

You realize you are wrong.

 

Elizabethton IS NOT SHORT SEASON A.  It is rookie league, advanced Rookie, but still considered rookie league.  For the Twins, it is above their Gulf Coast League team that playes in Ft Myers.  

 

But, Short Season A ball is above the rookie league and teams that have affiliations at this level usually send their college draft picks to this level.  The Twins, without a short season A team almost exclusively send their college draft picks to Elizabethton and a few advanced high school players (Alex Kiriloff started there).  They usually send their high school draft picks and some junior college players, as well as the occasional late signign college player to GCL. 

 

I believe the Twins should consider affiliating with a short season A team because for college draft picks, Rooker as a good example, the Pioneer League simply isn't competitive enough.  It is a waste of time and because of the lack of competition the Twins lose a critical period in evaluating the players.  

 

 

I looked it up, and yes I was wrong about the relative rankings of the league. Sorry for that. 

 

Then again, your overgeneralization to claim that each player moves in lockstep is still a valid criticism.

[DocBauer]

LOVE the article and perspective! Aggressive? Yes. And positively so!

 

Now, put the hammer down...damnit...and get Gonsalves, Romero and Jorge up to Rochester!

 

Gonsalves may be the best and most ready SO for a promotion and is kicking butt and he's stuck in AA. Who is blocking him exactly? Romero may be even better! Great! Why can't he pitch 5 innings at Rochester instead of Chattanooga? Jorge has started 2 games for the ML club but can't pitch at AAA? Once again, who are blocking these guys?

[mlhouse]

 

I looked it up, and yes I was wrong about the relative rankings of the league. Sorry for that. 

 

Then again, your overgeneralization to claim that each player moves in lockstep is still a valid criticism.

 

 

As far as the generalization of how the Twins handle their minor league players, I stand by my assertion.

 

Here are several points:

 

1.   A real study of minor league movements would require way more work than what I am interested in doing (you would have to factor in performance, draft positions, injuries, starting age, etc), I would estimate that the Twins bring up their prospects 12-18 months later than most other organizations.  To compare, look at two catchers in AAA:  Mitch Garver and John Ryan Murphy (there are probably better comps but this one was the most direct).  Yet, despite Garver being statistically better player, Murphy reached the major leagues as a 22 year old.  Garver, despite being 26, still has not played at the MLB level.

 

2.  What makes this approach even more amazing is that the team is losing 95+ games a year.  Somehow, the Yankees while winning 85+ games per year and really competing for the playoffs managed to bring up a 22 year old catching prospect, while we still have a BETTER 26 year old prospect whiling in the minor leagues.

 

3.  Even with this very conservative approach, Twins prospects struggle making the jump from the minors to the majors, often showing a lack of understanding of baseball fundamentals.  

 

4.  And to top it all off, instead of moving their prospects to the majors for development and evaluation, we see a steady stream of Matt Belisle, Craig Breslow, Adam WIlk, Nick Turley, Drew Rucinski, Nick Tepesch, Chris Heston, and the ancient wonder Bartolo Colon just in 2017.  We have found innings for just about every single designated for assignment waiver wire pitcher in the league.  And the end result, a not surprising cumulaitve ERA that is higher than Chris Gimenez's.

 

5.  Some of these guys are on top of the steady stream of non-entities that have played for this losing franchise over the past 7 years.  A stream of Clete Thomases and Shane Robinsons.  

 

 

 

 

[70charger]

I'm going to address your comparison quickly. 

 

You are using Mitch Garver, a four-year college player, drafted in the ninth round only he saved the team money given his lack of leverage, to JR Murphy, a high-school draftee paid more than $1 million in the second round and widely considered the better prospect until the last year or so, as your proof of how the Twins operate. That's not apples to oranges, that apples to battleships. It's not a great comparison, imo. Would you apply to same logic to Jorge Polanco, whom the Twins brought up at age 20 or 21 versus Brian Dozier, who had to wait until he was over the hill at 25 to get his first taste? Which player has done better for it? It just doesn't seem to fit your narrative.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I get it with young high school players, but college players are 3-4 years older.  Look at Mitch Garver and a lot of the collge pitching draft choices.  They aren't reaching the majors until they are 25-26 years of age.  That is too slow.

 

What if they weren't ready when they were 22-23-24? 

[Seth Stohs]

 

As far as the generalization of how the Twins handle their minor league players, I stand by my assertion.

 

Here are several points:

 

1.   A real study of minor league movements would require way more work than what I am interested in doing (you would have to factor in performance, draft positions, injuries, starting age, etc), I would estimate that the Twins bring up their prospects 12-18 months later than most other organizations.  To compare, look at two catchers in AAA:  Mitch Garver and John Ryan Murphy (there are probably better comps but this one was the most direct).  Yet, despite Garver being statistically better player, Murphy reached the major leagues as a 22 year old.  Garver, despite being 26, still has not played at the MLB level.

 

2.  What makes this approach even more amazing is that the team is losing 95+ games a year.  Somehow, the Yankees while winning 85+ games per year and really competing for the playoffs managed to bring up a 22 year old catching prospect, while we still have a BETTER 26 year old prospect whiling in the minor leagues.

 

3.  Even with this very conservative approach, Twins prospects struggle making the jump from the minors to the majors, often showing a lack of understanding of baseball fundamentals.  

 

4.  And to top it all off, instead of moving their prospects to the majors for development and evaluation, we see a steady stream of Matt Belisle, Craig Breslow, Adam WIlk, Nick Turley, Drew Rucinski, Nick Tepesch, Chris Heston, and the ancient wonder Bartolo Colon just in 2017.  We have found innings for just about every single designated for assignment waiver wire pitcher in the league.  And the end result, a not surprising cumulaitve ERA that is higher than Chris Gimenez's.

 

5.  Some of these guys are on top of the steady stream of non-entities that have played for this losing franchise over the past 7 years.  A stream of Clete Thomases and Shane Robinsons.  

 

I don't know if the Murphy/Garver comments really tell us anything...

 

1.) Have the Twins drafted a high school catcher in the 1st or 2nd round in the last 10-12 years? Did they have a high school catcher who was ready for the big leagues at 22? While Murphy got time in MLB at 22-24, as a backup to Brian McCann, he is now a part-time catcher in AAA, so was being in MLB best for him during that time? (financially, sure... development-wise, I don't know). Also, Murphy was more of a defensive catcher which is the skill more likely to get you to the big leagues. Garver had more development to do behind the plate coming out of four years of college. He wasn't drafted until he was 22. Was he supposed to come up to the majors right away.

 

I think Garver should be up right now. But so much of it is situational too. The new front office just brought in a guy for 3 years and $24+ million. There is one of a team's two catchers. They decided to bring in a second backup catcher, one they were both familar with as a glue guy to lead, and I think Chris Gimenez has done that. 

 

Now, I would have Garver up as a DH/C/1B, maybe even LF, guy now, but they've also (like several other teams) had an 8-man bullpen a bunch of the season, so it's harder to make a 3-man bench.

 

And, if reaching MLB by age 22 is a big thing... the Twins have called up Polanco, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Mejia, Mauer, and going back, guys like Arcia when they were 22 or younger, so to say that the team doesn't do that just isn't accurate at all.

 

People can argue that pitchers are brought along more slowly, and probably have a good point (though again, Berrios was up by 21, Mejia 22, etc.), but that same argument can't be made for hitters, in my opinion... 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

 

1.) Have the Twins drafted a high school catcher in the 1st or 2nd round in the last 10-12 years? Did they have a high school catcher who was ready for the big leagues at 22? While Murphy got time in MLB at 22-24, as a backup to Brian McCann, he is now a part-time catcher in AAA, so was being in MLB best for him during that time? (financially, sure... development-wise, I don't know). Also, Murphy was more of a defensive catcher which is the skill more likely to get you to the big leagues. Garver had more development to do behind the plate coming out of four years of college. He wasn't drafted until he was 22. Was he supposed to come up to the majors right away.

 

 

 

Rortvedt, might be the best comp, and he's on the JRM path as of now.

 

There was some kid named Mauer too, but that was more than 10 years ago.

 

I personally think the narrative of 'Twins promote too slow' is what needs to be dispelled here. It's clear that they do the case by case thing (and there's definitely an argument to be made that they did it wrong).  But guys like Arcia, Berrios, Hicks, Buxton, Polanco, etc. all debuted at very young ages...  There may be something more to this with pitchers than hitters, but then again, given the results we saw with our pitchers when they came up, I'm inclined to say that promotion speed wasn't the reason for the issues.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Rortvedt, might be the best comp, and he's on the JRM path as of now.

 

There was some kid named Mauer too, but that was more than 10 years ago.

 

I personally think the narrative of 'Twins promote too slow' is what needs to be dispelled here. It's clear that they do the case by case thing (and there's definitely an argument to be made that they did it wrong).  But guys like Arcia, Berrios, Hicks, Buxton, Polanco, etc. all debuted at very young ages...  There may be something more to this with pitchers than hitters, but then again, given the results we saw with our pitchers when they came up, I'm inclined to say that promotion speed wasn't the reason for the issues.

 

to me, I'd rather they hurry thru A ball, and spend more time in AA and AAA, being challenged. If they are going to hurry at all. Like Rooker this year. They are really, imo, challenging him. I like that.

[gunnarthor]

The reality is that the Twins have been pretty good with promotions since Brad Stiel took over as farm director. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

The reality is that the Twins have been pretty good with promotions since Brad Stiel took over as farm director. 

 

I agree with this. I do think he's been much more aggressive. 

 

My main thing is that it has to  be case-by-case. Prospects get pushed... Rortvedt got pushed hard in his jump to Cedar Rapids... It took 6-8 weeks, but he's done well since then. Now he can keep working the rest of the season and experience some success before again being challenged next year in Ft. Myers. 

[drjim]

 

to me, I'd rather they hurry thru A ball, and spend more time in AA and AAA, being challenged. If they are going to hurry at all. Like Rooker this year. They are really, imo, challenging him. I like that.

 

That's completely backwards for the players referenced. Players in A ball are usually just learning to get through a full professional season. There is also the need for players to face teams multiple times to learn how teams adjust against them. Shifting guys around can prevent adjustments from being made.

 

A good college guy like Rooker can blow through it (and often do), but a hs/international guy needs that time and reps. The elite, elite hs/international guys (like Buxton) might conquer low a and high a in a full season, but that is incredibly fast moving.

 

AAA is a holding tank for major league depth, especially on the position player side. If they have mastered AA, there is little to learn in AAA that can't be learned in the majors.

[drjim]

 

The reality is that the Twins have been pretty good with promotions since Brad Stiel took over as farm director. 

 

I would say really good. It takes a pretty big stretch to find anyone not promoted as they should be within a couple of weeks.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's completely backwards for the players referenced. Players in A ball are usually just learning to get through a full professional season. There is also the need for players to face teams multiple times to learn how teams adjust against them. Shifting guys around can prevent adjustments from being made.

 

A good college guy like Rooker can blow through it (and often do), but a hs/international guy needs that time and reps. The elite, elite hs/international guys (like Buxton) might conquer low a and high a in a full season, but that is incredibly fast moving.

 

AAA is a holding tank for major league depth, especially on the position player side. If they have mastered AA, there is little to learn in AAA that can't be learned in the majors.

 

well, I'm not sure what is "true" or not.

 

I think elite guys aren't challenged in A ball enough, and don't learn soon enough how to recover from failure and other things. but, that's just an uniformed opinion, and I am willing to admit I could be wrong. I just watch some Twins' players, and wonder why they spend a full year in A and A+, but less than that in AA or AAA facing tougher competition.

 

As for AAA ball, there are a lot of borderline MLBers there. I would think getting experience against consistently better players would be helpful.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would say really good. It takes a pretty big stretch to find anyone not promoted as they should be within a couple of weeks.

 

so, none of the AA pitchers should be in AAA, or AAA is just a waste? Because lots of people were pretty sure 1-2 of them would be promoted by now if they were good the first half of this year. I'm asking, because I am curious.

[drjim]

 

so, none of the AA pitchers should be in AAA, or AAA is just a waste? Because lots of people were pretty sure 1-2 of them would be promoted by now if they were good the first half of this year. I'm asking, because I am curious.

 

I think they are all fine in AA right now. The only exception I would see is if they are planning on bringing Romero into the mlb pen, might want to give him some AAA time.

 

I don't think AAA is a waste, but I don't think it matters a ton where their reps are happening at the moment. 

[drjim]

 

well, I'm not sure what is "true" or not.

 

I think elite guys aren't challenged in A ball enough, and don't learn soon enough how to recover from failure and other things. but, that's just an uniformed opinion, and I am willing to admit I could be wrong. I just watch some Twins' players, and wonder why they spend a full year in A and A+, but less than that in AA or AAA facing tougher competition.

 

As for AAA ball, there are a lot of borderline MLBers there. I would think getting experience against consistently better players would be helpful.

 

Which ones in A ball? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Which ones in A ball? 

 

none this year I've had A LOT Less time to pay attn to the minors this year. A lot. that was the past, should have been clear on that, my bad.