Article: Rooker Promoted: Aggressive, or No?

[Seth Stohs]

On Tuesday afternoon, news came out that Brent Rooker had been promoted from Elizabethton to Ft. Myers. It was a strategy the Twins had mentioned after selecting the four-year college start from Mississippi State with the 35th overall pick (supplemental 1st round). He played in 22 games for Elizabethton and posted a.952 OPS with seven homers.

 

John Bonnes tweeted the following:

 

 

I hear stuff like that a lot. Many believe that the Twins aren’t aggressive enough with prospects. But for a 2017 draft pick, even a college hitter, I think that jumping to High-A ball is pretty aggressive. But honestly, I was just really curious. I needed to know.So, I went to Baseball-Reference (I know, obviously) and researched which college hitters were drafted ahead of Brent Rooker in the 2017 draft. I was curious to see where other teams had started those players and where they are now, if different. Secondly, because Rooker is a four-year college guy (the Twins actually drafted him in 2016 in the 38th round), I thought it would make sense to look at the college hitters drafted in the first round in 2016 as well. For them, I was curious where they got to by the end of 2016 as well as where they are right now, midway through the 2017 season.

 

I’m willing to admit when I’m wrong, but I did have a couple of assumptions in my mind before doing the research.

• I assumed that none of the other college hitters drafted in 2017 have reached High-A yet. I did expect that a couple of the very high draft picks would be at Low A by now.
• I assumed that most of the college hitters drafted in 2016’s first round were at least at High-A, unless there was an injury at play or something.

The College Hitters Drafted in 2017 ahead of Brent Rooker

 

(4) Brendan McKay - Tampa Bay Rays - There were rumors that the Twins were interested in the two-way player from Louisville. To this point, McKay has played in just two games in the New York-Penn League (NYPL) which is a short-season A league. The Twins don’t have a short-season A club, but the level is between Advanced Rookie Leagues like the Appalachian League and Low-A Leagues like the Midwest League. McKay is 0-8 with 4 strikeouts, but I think that would be considered Small Sample Size.

(7) Pavin Smith - Virginia - Arizona Diamondbacks - Smith has played in 20 games for the DBacks affiliate in the Northwest League. Like the NYPL, the Northwest League is a short-season A league.

(8) Adam Haseley - Virginia - Philadelphia Phillies - Smith’s teammate began his pro career with three games in the GCL before moving up to the NYPL where he’s played in 14 games.

(9) Keston Hiura - Milwaukee Brewers - Hiura, who was drafted out of UC-Irvine, has played in 15 games for the Brewers affiliate in the Arizona League which is similar to the Gulf Coast League (the lower short-season league), though he is hitting .435 (1.339 OPS).

(11) Jake Burger - Chicago White Sox - Burger was drafted out of Missouri State. He played in four games in the Arizona League before moving up to the White Sox Low A affiliate in the South Atlantic League (Low A).

(17) Evan White - Seattle Mariners - The first baseman was drafted out of Kentucky. The Mariners have had him play 14 games so far in the Northwest League (short-season A).

(22) Logan Warmoth - Toronto Blue Jays - The middle infielder selected out of North Carolina began his career with five games in the GCL. He moved up to the Northwest League (short-season).

(23) Jaren Kendall - Los Angeles Dodgers - The Wisconsin kid was drafted out of Vanderbilt. He signed on the final signing day, so he is yet to play in a game.

(33) Kevin Merrell - Oakland A’s - Drafted out of South Florida, the A’s placed Merrell in the NYPL to start his career.

 

 

SUMMARY

 

Of nine college hitters drafted before Brent Rooker at the 35th pick, here is the quick breakdown of where they are playing right now:

 

Low Rookie - 1

Advanced Rookie - 3

Short-season A - 3

Low A - 1

 

Rooker played 22 games for Elizabethton (Advanced Rookie) before playing in his first Ft. Myers Miracle (High-A) game on Tuesday night. While he is the first to play in High-A from this group, it doesn’t mean he’ll be the last. In fact, it’s likely he won’t be. He shouldn’t be as the 35th overall pick, not when there are five college hitters who were taken in the first 11 picks. And, of course, on an even bigger level, we won’t really know the value of any of these picks for another half-dozen years, at least.

 

The College Hitters Drafted In 2016s First Round

 

(2) Nick Senzel - Cincinnati Reds - The second overall pick in the draft out of Tennessee, Senzel reached the Midwest League last season. He began this year in the Florida State League, but he was promoted to AA where he has now played 23 games.

(5) Corey Ray - Milwaukee Brewers - Drafted out of Louisville, Ray started his career with three games in Low A before being pushed to High A where he played 57 games to end the season. That is where he remains to this point in the 2017 season as well. The only difference is that the Brewers High-A affiliate is now in the Carolina League.

(10) Zack Collins - Chicago White Sox - Collins was playing in the Florida State League shortly after playing in the College World Series. That is where he remains to this point in the 2017 season.

(11) Kyle Lewis - Seattle Mariners - Lewis was believed by some to be a possibility as the #1 overall pick. He fell to #11 and played some in the short-season A ball league. He had a major knee injury and has just recently began to play in 2017, playing two games in High A.

(16) Matt Thaiss - Los Angeles Angels - The first baseman from Virginia began his career last year in rookie ball before playing 52 games in Low A. He began 2017 in High A before being promoted to AA about a couple of weeks ago

(22) Will Craig - Pittsburgh Pirates - The third baseman from Wake Forest spent his entire 2016 pro season in the NYPL. This season, he jumped straight to High-A, where he remains.

(32) Will Smith - Los Angeles Dodgers - The catcher from Louisville spent about two weeks in rookie ball, 23 games in Low A and 25 games in High A in 2016. He began 2017 in High A with 72 more games in High A. He was promoted to AA about a week ago. He played one game before landing on the DL.

(39) Anfernee Grier - Arizona Diamondbacks - After signing last year out of Auburn, Grier split his 2016 between two levels of the rookie leagues. He has spent the 2017 season in Low A ball.

 

2016 SUMMARY

 

There were eight college hitters selected in the first round of the 2016 draft. Here is where they ended their 2016 season (First pro season):

 

Short-season A - 2

Low A - 3

High A - 3

 

Here is where those eight players are right now:

 

Low A - 1

High A - 4

AA - 3 (the three players have a combined 33 games in AA)

 

 

OVERALL SUMMARY

 

Brent Rooker was the Triple Crown winner in the SEC this year at Mississippi State. He is the first to do that since Rafael Palmiero. In other words, he should be considered an advanced hitting prospect. Hence, he was selected with the 35th overall pick a year after the Twins made him the 38th round pick.

 

I understand that Rooker is 22, and he will turn 23 in November. While many want to push him to the big leagues in 2018 or early in 2019, I’m not even a little bit concerned about that. I want him to come up when he is ready to come up and contribute, whether that is in June of 2018 or July of 2020. The reality is that the Twins can get 6+ seasons out of a player before free agency hits. I don’t care whether those are their age 21 through 28 seasons or 25 through 32 seasons.

 

Brian Dozier was a four-year guy. He debuted within two years of being drafted. Mitch Garver was a four-year guy. As a catcher, he’s taken a little longer to develop behind the plate. So, he’s 26, but when he comes up (hopefully soon), he will be ready to go. Trevor Hildenberger was a five-year college guy. His first pro season was spent only in the GCL. Does that matter now? We need to get rid of the stigma placed upon these guys that they are older than their level, even if it is factual. It just isn’t all that important.

 

At the same time, I do think it is important to do a little research like this. I didn’t know what it would tell me. However, when honestly comparing where Rooker is relative to his draft class (2017) or his age class (2016 college draft picks as juniors), the Twins are certainly pushing him with this promotion to Ft. Myers.

 

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BONUS CONTENT

 

Looking at this, I was curious where some of the other college hitters that the Twins drafted and signed in recent years are now. Here’s a very quick look.

 

 

2016:

(7) Matt Albanese - Bryant College (RI) - Elizabethton (debuting this season due to wrist injuries)

(9) Mitchell Kranson - California - Ft. Myers

(10) Brandon Lopez - Miami - Ft. Myers

(14) Andre Jernigan - Xavier - Cedar Rapids

(22) Hank Morrison - Mercyhurst (PA) - Cedar Rapids

(23) Caleb Hamilton - Oregon State - Cedar Rapids

(29) Dane Hutcheon - Montevallo (AL) - Elizabethton (down from Ft. Myers for Rooker)

(31) Juan Gamez - NDSU - Elizabethton (drafted as catcher, transitioned to pitching)

(34) Joe Cronin - Boston College - Cedar Rapids

(39) Casey Scoggins - Tampa - Release (after spending time in Ft. Myers early this year)

 

 

From 2015, Chris Paul (6), Sean Miller (10), Zander Wiel (12), and Jaylin Davis (24) are with the Miracle. LaMonte Wade (9) and Alex Perez (23) are with the Lookouts. Five other college hitter picks have been released.

 

 

I show this only to show how difficult the path is to the big leagues, even for college hitters. Even for college hitters from big-time colleges in big-time conferences. Baseball is Good, but Baseball is Hard!

 

Click here to view the article

[benji21]

Wow, really entertaining article. Thanks for putting this together Seth.

My opinion would be that it is an aggressive but appropriate move for him. Your research shows that it's not uncommon for this to happen. Several of those players ended the season at high A. I mean, thats where he'll end, but he's got plenty of season to acclimate. I think his time in the appy league was good for him to get used to playing after a layoff and pro ball. Looks like he's right where he should be.

[Blake]

Interesting, thank you for the write up!

[Otwins]

Lot of research in this article. Very interesting. To me it is not how they start but how they finish.  Hope he makes it.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Rooker is slashing 000/000/000 in High A with a 25% K rate.

 

As for the premise of the article, I vote "aggressive" and I approve.

[Han Joelo]

Nice article.  Good to have perspective.  As old as it gets when people make puns out of your name, I'll bet he is looking forward to being called "Rook."

[rdehring]

Thanks, Seth, that was interesting.

 

Now lets not all jump on his you know what when he struggles a bit out of the gate!

[Tom Froemming]

 

Rooker is slashing 000/000/000 in High A with a 25% K rate.

As for the premise of the article, I vote "aggressive" and I approve.

BUST ......................

[mikelink45]

I really like it.  The information shared when he was drafted made him seem like he was ready for a fast track and it is good to see that the team is willing to let him rise as his talent dictates.  I do not like the unwritten rules that are so often applied to time and promotion for minor leaguers.  This is not aggressive, in my mind it is smart.  Thanks for the article. 

[Mike Sixel]

I thought FTM was aggressive compared to the league and the Twins, and it appears that is true. Would be nice if they were mildly so with AA pitchers that continue to dominate that level...

[Tommygun921]

Ohhh....

[Steve Lein]

It's definitely aggressive, but I agree with mikelink45 above, it's also smart.

 

He's already almost 23 and has played against the best conference in college baseball for longer than most. A conference that has a ton of good pitching that gets drafted high every year and he was the leagues best hitter.

 

I know Seth doesn't think the Twins are always slow with prospects (and in special cases they definitely were not), and maybe the new regime will change this perception and this is a good start, but if it wasn't true in why is that the national perception of every single website and writer you can read about prospects when talking about the Twins? Where there's smoke there's fire.

 

I always bring up Adam Walker for how I view this and it's maybe not the best example either, but it speaks to the idea I want to see changed. I asked Keith Law in a chat once, if he was impressed at all by the number of home runs he had put up in the rookie leagues and Cedar Rapids. His answer was (paraphrasing): "Should I be? With his experience and success in college, that's what should have been expected at those levels. Never should have been there in the first place."

 

That is the type of perception and process I want to go by the wayside with the new guys in charge.

 

Now with Rooker, unless he lights the FSL on fire for the rest of the season, I would expect he starts there next year too like the guys brought up in the article. It's still aggressive, and what I'd like to see more of with college hitters especially. Stop having them play against the kids. All the things like the professional baseball life and getting used to the minors league schedule —they can do that wherever you start them in my opinion.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Steve Lein

[David HK]

Whoa-  It's the Fort he's at, not Cedar Rapids.  Aggressive-- YES!  And I like it!

 

When I saw this post, I thought, well, it's about time they promoted him to CR, where he's still a little older than the average-  but seeing it's already High-A, I'm digging it.  So if he struggles, which I fully expect, so be it.  It'll be the first step of adjustments he'll need to make on his way up, and he'll learn how to do that-- hopefully.

 

Go get 'em, Rook!

 

And thanks, Falvine, if this was your doing.  Now can we talk about being more aggressive with young pitchers, and maybe a little less signing aging retreads?

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Very interesting article. Thank you. Free Curtiss!

[markos]

 

 

I understand that Rooker is 22, and he will turn 23 in November. While many want to push him to the big leagues in 2018 or early in 2019, I’m not even a little bit concerned about that. I want him to come up when he is ready to come up and contribute, whether that is in June of 2018 or July of 2020. The reality is that the Twins can get 6+ seasons out of a player before free agency hits. I don’t care whether those are their age 21 through 28 seasons or 25 through 32 seasons.

Brian Dozier was a four-year guy. He debuted within two years of being drafted. Mitch Garver was a four-year guy. As a catcher, he’s taken a little longer to develop behind the plate. So, he’s 26, but when he comes up (hopefully soon), he will be ready to go. Trevor Hildenberger was a five-year college guy. His first pro season was spent only in the GCL. Does that matter now? We need to get rid of the stigma placed upon these guys that they are older than their level, even if it is factual. It just isn’t all that important.

 

The stigma placed upon these guys isn't that they will be old by the time they get to the majors; instead, it is placed on these guys because it is incredibly difficult to make any judgement about their performance when they are amongst the oldest players in their league. Rooker is going to be 23 next year. Anything he does below AA at that point is essentially meaningless as their are dozens and dozens of 23+yo college players who crush it in High-A every single season. I want to see him in AA next year not so much because it fast-tracks him to the majors, but because it puts him in an environment that will actually shed light on the likelihood of him reaching the big league and potentially becoming an impact performer.

[Thrylos]

I hear stuff like that a lot. Many believe that the Twins aren’t aggressive enough with prospects. But for a 2017 draft pick, even a college hitter, I think that jumping to High-A ball is pretty aggressive. But honestly, I was just really curious. I needed to know.

 

 

 

Actually this has been the norm with the Twins.  Here is where College hitters selected on the first round (or sup first) have played in their first pro seasons:

 

2012 Levi Michael A+

1997 Matt LeCroy A/A+

1994 Todd Walker A+

1991 Dave McCarty A+

1991 Scott Stahoviak A+

 

Truth is they have not selected many college hitters very early, but when they did, they started them in Ft Myers, other than LeCroy who started in A and ended up at Fort Myers, and as a C, that is an aggressive path.

 

Norm.  Nothing unusual, other than the fact that they selected a college hitter that high

 

 

[drjim]

Actually this has been the norm with the Twins. Here is where College hitters selected on the first round (or sup first) have played in their first pro seasons:

 

2012 Levi Michael A+

1997 Matt LeCroy A/A+

1994 Todd Walker A+

1991 Dave McCarty A+

1991 Scott Stahoviak A+

 

Truth is they have not selected many college hitters very early, but when they did, they started them in Ft Myers, other than LeCroy who started in A and ended up at Fort Myers, and as a C, that is an aggressive path.

 

Norm. Nothing unusual, other than the fact that they selected a college hitter that high

There is a difference between draft year and first full season.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Interesting article. Personally I don't think there's any positive correlation between age and performance. If there was we should all be excited about acquiring Colon.

 

When a player demonstrates he can handle the level of competition where he's at, he should be moved up. Notice I said "handle", not dominate. Nobody learns anything new by dominating competitors of lesser ability because there's no incentive to do so. People who aren't challenged stagnate.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

It's definitely aggressive, but I agree with mikelink45 above, it's also smart.

 

He's already almost 23 and has played against the best conference in college baseball for longer than most. A conference that has a ton of good pitching that gets drafted high every year and he was the leagues best hitter.

 

I know Seth doesn't think the Twins are always slow with prospects (and in special cases they definitely were not), and maybe the new regime will change this perception and this is a good start, but if it wasn't true in why is that the national perception of every single website and writer you can read about prospects when talking about the Twins? Where there's smoke there's fire.

 

I always bring up Adam Walker for how I view this and it's maybe not the best example either, but it speaks to the idea I want to see changed. I asked Keith Law in a chat once, if he was impressed at all by the number of home runs he had put up in the rookie leagues and Cedar Rapids. His answer was (paraphrasing): "Should I be? With his experience and success in college, that's what should have been expected at those levels. Never should have been there in the first place."

 

That is the type of perception and process I want to go by the wayside with the new guys in charge.

 

Now with Rooker, unless he lights the FSL on fire for the rest of the season, I would expect he starts there next year too like the guys brought up in the article. It's still aggressive, and what I'd like to see more of with college hitters especially. Stop having them play against the kids. All the things like the professional baseball life and getting used to the minors league schedule —they can do that wherever you start them in my opinion.

 

My point is that it can't be a cookie cutter thing. Not every college player, even from the great conferences, are the same. 

 

Caleb Hamilton came from Oregon State. He's spent this season in Cedar Rapids. Is that a bad decision? No. He's catching now some, he's playing other positions, and he wasn't a top player from that top team. He's where he should be. 

 

Brandon Lopez and Mitchell Kranson are already in Ft. Myers now after being drafted last year, as 9th and 10th round picks. To me, that's pretty impressive. 

 

LaMonte Wade moved up to AA after just like 23 games in High A. That's aggressive.

 

But, Kyle Wright's first appearance for the Braves was in the GCL... Brendan McKay is playing in short-season A. They're all different.

 

And you're right... Walker isn't a good example... He wasn't a #1 pick. He was a 3rd round pick, and not from a top conference (though a good southern conference). He had his areas that he needed to work on. Any evaluater knew that, and that's why it was wise for the Twins to move him as he did, giving him at least an opportunity to work on those things at those levels. Could they have figured him out sooner by starting him at AA instead? Sure, he would have been a strikeout machine, and he wouldn't have been given a fair chance to develop those things he needed to. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Interesting article. Personally I don't think there's any positive correlation between age and performance. If there was we should all be excited about acquiring Colon.

 

When a player demonstrates he can handle the level of competition where he's at, he should be moved up. Notice I said "handle", not dominate. Nobody learns anything new by dominating competitors of lesser ability because there's no incentive to do so. People who aren't challenged stagnate.

 

that first paragraph is filled with so much wrongness, it is unreal. Seriously? a 44 yo and correlation? wow.

[jrod23]

This did surprise me, but he was interviewed during a home game right after he signed.  He said he was going to Fort Myers to workout.  Then the plan was to go to Elizabethton for while, then go back to Fort Myers.  That was great news for me since I went down to E-Town for the home opener(s).  Big Dave actually let me help deliver all the gear to the guys.  So when Rooker pans out, I can say I hand delivered his first pair of spikes.

 

Regardless, so actually Rooker leaked this way back in June right after the draft.  I like it.  Let Dougy Baseball get his hands on him.  E-Town was winning games and Fort Myers is dominating right now.  Breed that winning atmosphere for him to be brought up in.

[MN_ExPat]

 

It's definitely aggressive, but I agree with mikelink45 above, it's also smart.

 

He's already almost 23 and has played against the best conference in college baseball for longer than most. A conference that has a ton of good pitching that gets drafted high every year and he was the leagues best hitter.

 

I know Seth doesn't think the Twins are always slow with prospects (and in special cases they definitely were not), and maybe the new regime will change this perception and this is a good start, but if it wasn't true in why is that the national perception of every single website and writer you can read about prospects when talking about the Twins? Where there's smoke there's fire.

 

I always bring up Adam Walker for how I view this and it's maybe not the best example either, but it speaks to the idea I want to see changed. I asked Keith Law in a chat once, if he was impressed at all by the number of home runs he had put up in the rookie leagues and Cedar Rapids. His answer was (paraphrasing): "Should I be? With his experience and success in college, that's what should have been expected at those levels. Never should have been there in the first place."

 

That is the type of perception and process I want to go by the wayside with the new guys in charge.

 

Now with Rooker, unless he lights the FSL on fire for the rest of the season, I would expect he starts there next year too like the guys brought up in the article. It's still aggressive, and what I'd like to see more of with college hitters especially. Stop having them play against the kids. All the things like the professional baseball life and getting used to the minors league schedule —they can do that wherever you start them in my opinion.

Sorry to disagree... the SEC still sucks

[clutterheart]

 

We need to get rid of the stigma placed upon these guys that they are older than their level, even if it is factual. It just isn’t all that important.

 

Disagree, and I think you do too.  Otherwise why would you rank Lachlan Wells higher than Tyler Wells?  

 

Tyler Wells is almost 23 and at Low A pitching lights out against guys whose ave age is almost 2 years younger than him.  Lachlan Wells is 20 at doing OK at High A facing batters 2 year older than him.  

 

Age matters when it comes to ceiling/floor conversations and performance evaluation.   If older prospects sit at the same level, and don't get promoted their age needs to be considered when evaluating their performance.

 

[Ben Noble]

No.

[Seth Stohs]

 

that first paragraph is filled with so much wrongness, it is unreal. Seriously? a 44 yo and correlation? wow.

 

I'm guessing there may have been a little bit of sarcasm in that paragraph... 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Disagree, and I think you do too.  Otherwise why would you rank Lachlan Wells higher than Tyler Wells?  

 

Tyler Wells is almost 23 and at Low A pitching lights out against guys whose ave age is almost 2 years younger than him.  Lachlan Wells is 20 at doing OK at High A facing batters 2 year older than him.  

 

Age matters when it comes to ceiling/floor conversations and performance evaluation.   If older prospects sit at the same level, and don't get promoted their age needs to be considered when evaluating their performance.

 

Age matters in prospect rankings. I don't think anyone would deny that... But obviously a guy who goes to 3-4 years of college will always be behind the 8-ball when it comes to such things. The hope is that the cream will rise to the crop, and there are many examples of that. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm guessing there may have been a little bit of sarcasm in that paragraph... 

 

It's possible, but there was clearly an argument being made that there is no correlation. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Age matters in prospect rankings. I don't think anyone would deny that... But obviously a guy who goes to 3-4 years of college will always be behind the 8-ball when it comes to such things. The hope is that the cream will rise to the crop, and there are many examples of that. 

 

Yeah, hard to deny age. College guys have to perform where they are placed. Now for the record, Rooker is 1.6 years younger than the average age in the FSL. A good season here would place him pretty firmly on the prospect map.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, hard to deny age. College guys have to perform where they are placed. Now for the record, Rooker is 1.6 years younger than the average age in the FSL. A good season here would place him pretty firmly on the prospect map.

 

cool.

 

One thing, I struggle with "average age" since most really good prospects get promoted, and older guys that aren't good enough repeat levels. But I've never seen a good way to compare players to other players on similar tracks (college, actual prospectness, etc.)

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

cool.

 

One thing, I struggle with "average age" since most really good prospects get promoted, and older guys that aren't good enough repeat levels. But I've never seen a good way to compare players to other players on similar tracks (college, actual prospectness, etc.)

 

There's plenty of older guys doing well in said league. You don't promote on age, you promote based on it being an appropriate location for where you are. The old guys still struggling are the ones who get released.

 

To me, age relative to league average is a good metric.