DFA Hughes

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't understand this way of thinking. He doesn't even really have a role right now, not sure what you would be preventing from replacing. Keep him on the roster, see if he's back healthy, and if he is you can find a spot. If a not, DFA him.

 

are we talking past each other? maybe. I'll try more details:

 

1. I am arguing Hughes could be cut now.

2. I believe he won't show he's good this year, meaning you need to make a decision during the off season.

3. If you plan to give him a chance next year, then you aren't going to sign a pitcher to replace him, because you are giving him a chance. Teams don't say "hey, 26MM man, you are on the roster, but we are also signing ANOTHER 15MM man to maybe replace you.

4. Since I don't think you can decide this year, and if you wait until the off season is over to decide, you are essentially keeping him, I think you are giving up a roster spot, again.

[yarnivek1972]

If the Pohlads were willing to release him, odds are they would have done so by now. This is not a decision Falvine can make. It's 100% Jim Pohlad's call. Maybe they talk him into it, but I don't see it as likely. I'd put the odds at 10% before the end of 2017. 25% this offseason. Maybe by the end of 2018 up to 50%.

[drjim]

 

are we talking past each other? maybe. I'll try more details:

 

1. I am arguing Hughes could be cut now.

2. I believe he won't show he's good this year, meaning you need to make a decision during the off season.

3. If you plan to give him a chance next year, then you aren't going to sign a pitcher to replace him, because you are giving him a chance. Teams don't say "hey, 26MM man, you are on the roster, but we are also signing ANOTHER 15MM man to maybe replace you.

4. Since I don't think you can decide this year, and if you wait until the off season is over to decide, you are essentially keeping him, I think you are giving up a roster spot, again.

 

You are certainly giving up a 40 man spot in the offseason, but I don't see that being too big a problem.

 

I would argue that you bring him into camp with no Plan A assigned role. Basically you go into the offseason planning on nothing from Hughes in 2018 and make acquisitions accordingly. If he comes into camp and does well, you can find a spot for him, either in the rotation or in the pen. If he continues to show nothing in camp you cut him and move on.

 

The only cost of doing my plan is the 40 man roster spot over the offseason. If the Twins don't do this, I promise another team would do the same with him, bring him in as a flyer.

[drjim]

 

If the Pohlads were willing to release him, odds are they would have done so by now. This is not a decision Falvine can make. It's 100% Jim Pohlad's call. Maybe they talk him into it, but I don't see it as likely. I'd put the odds at 10% before the end of 2017. 25% this offseason. Maybe by the end of 2018 up to 50%.

 

I don't think the Pohlads would stand in the way if the front office wanted to do it. But his money would count against the budget next year.

[drjim]

 

Hughes to the DL, Romero to the 40 and pen in 2 weeks.

 

Romero is already on the 40. But I would endorse this plan.

[nicksaviking]

Would DFA'ing Hughes now mean Belisle gets a reprieve?

 

Because thus far Hughes is only used in blowouts and Belisle still gets higher leverage situations. If dumping Hughes means Belisle gets extra leash, I vote to keep Hughes and continue to give him the throw away innings. Belisle is a bigger liability.

[Vanimal46]

 

Would DFA'ing Hughes now mean Belisle gets a reprieve?

Because thus far Hughes is only used in blowouts and Belisle still gets higher leverage situations. If dumping Hughes means Belisle gets extra leash, I vote to keep Hughes and continue to give him the throw away innings. Belisle is a bigger liability.

 

I hope these players are not connected in any way. They should be mutually exclusive. 

[Thrylos]

Little perspective:

 

• Hughes is the long man/mop up pitcher right now, and hardly the problem Belisle, Boshers, and even Pressly are.  He is pitching when the Twins are blown out.  No leverage at all
• In the limited sample, his numbers out of the pen are: 6.2 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 2 HR, .455 BABIP; his 23.5 K% and 10.7 K/9 in that sample, are encouraging, and his BABIP and HR/FB% (that should be ridiculous) will regress.
• The Twins owe him $30 million or more.  Not compared to Blackburn with $5M or so in his contract, so,  rightfully, they will give him any opportunity to recoup their investment.
• If his issue is medical, he will go to the 60-day DL and the Twins will recover $ from their insurance.  Not the same as cutting him.

Any way you cut it, the Twins have bigger fish to fry than Hughes at this point...

[Jham]

Would DFA'ing Hughes now mean Belisle gets a reprieve?

 

Because thus far Hughes is only used in blowouts and Belisle still gets higher leverage situations. If dumping Hughes means Belisle gets extra leash, I vote to keep Hughes and continue to give him the throw away innings. Belisle is a bigger liability.

Belisle had been fairly serviceable recently. But I feel ya.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You are certainly giving up a 40 man spot in the offseason, but I don't see that being too big a problem.

 

I would argue that you bring him into camp with no Plan A assigned role. Basically you go into the offseason planning on nothing from Hughes in 2018 and make acquisitions accordingly. If he comes into camp and does well, you can find a spot for him, either in the rotation or in the pen. If he continues to show nothing in camp you cut him and move on.

 

The only cost of doing my plan is the 40 man roster spot over the offseason. If the Twins don't do this, I promise another team would do the same with him, bring him in as a flyer.

 

As long as you are correct, and having him around does not mean they don't actively replace him during the off season, fine. But I'm not sure any org would do that. I hope to be wrong on every count on this, and that he somehow becomes good again.

[Doomtints]

 

Nobody would claim him on waivers but somebody might pick him up since that team would only have to pay the MLB minimum and the Twins pay the remainder of his salary. 

 

As I said previously, I believe that only counts for this year. After that, the new team would need to pick up his salary. Thus, no one will pick him up.

 

I could be incorrect about that, but I believe there was a rule change in this regard many years ago so that the team that DFAs is only on the hook for one year for the full salary if another team picks up the player.

 

Regardless of any of that, I established earlier that my opinion is his salary doesn't matter. It's the same regardless of what happens. The only thing the Twins should consider if player value.

[drjim]

 

As long as you are correct, and having him around does not mean they don't actively replace him during the off season, fine. But I'm not sure any org would do that. I hope to be wrong on every count on this, and that he somehow becomes good again.

 

If they are slotting him in as a mop up man now, what role would you envision the front office planning for him over the offseason?

[Mike Sixel]

 

If they are slotting him in as a mop up man now, what role would you envision the front office planning for him over the offseason?

 

No idea. But, you were the one saying see how his recovery is during the off season, at least I read it that way. I hope they plan on no role, and replace him.

[yarnivek1972]

As I said previously, I believe that only counts for this year. After that, the new team would need to pick up his salary. Thus, no one will pick him up.

 

I could be incorrect about that, but I believe there was a rule change in this regard many years ago so that the team that DFAs is only on the hook for one year for the full salary if another team picks up the player.

 

Regardless of any of that, I established earlier that my opinion is his salary doesn't matter. It's the same regardless of what happens. The only thing the Twins should consider if player value.

His salary may not matter to you, but I'm pretty sure it matters to Jim Pohlad. The bottom line is that the Twins aren't in the habit of eating that much salary. Like I said, MAYBE Falvey convinces him that it is best. But I doubt it. btw, the 40 man slot isn't a non-consideration. There are a whole slew of guys that will need to be added this offseason or exposed to rule 5. Gordon and Gonsalves for starters. Curtis, Bard, Reed and Burdi I believe as well. That's not even counting May and O'Rourke who will have to be added back after the season. Think about that for a minute. At least 7 pitchers not on the 40 man now probably will be in November. That means 7 pitchers on the 40 man now will likely need to be removed. Belisle, Breslow, Gibson, Santiago. Those are the easy ones. Boshers, Pressly, Haley, Kintzler. That's not so easy. Indeed, I'll be surprised if all those guys are gone.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

The Twins can DFA him now and still invite him to spring training next year. He'll be around. I believe DFA rules would mean the Twins would have to cover (most of) the salary this year if someone picks him up, but not in additional years. This means no one will pick him up.

 

2017 can be the year that teams jettison terrible players. Boston cut Sandoval with $50M left on the deal. Hughes and Sandoval are roughly equally bad, the difference being that Sandoval was incredible in the playoffs.

 

Boston is still on the hook for all $50 mil - The Twins would be on the hook for the entirety of the remainder of Hughes' contract. The only saving grace would be insurance on injury, or if Hughes retired. 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/pablo-sandoval-designated-assignment-red-sox-150128999.html

 

[Jham]

Romero is already on the 40. But I would endorse this plan.

That's right. I forgot they added him. Sort of assumed he want since Jorge got the call before he did.

[DocBauer]

I also believe Hughes is probably done. And I am concerned about the 40 man spot going in to next season. I would guess though, that they won't DFA him until the season is over, keeping him around for depth and hope.

 

I doubt anyone would pick him up, or his salary. So I suppose you could make him an invite next ST if you want to take a flier on improved velocity over additional recovery time.

[Doomtints]

 

His salary may not matter to you, but I'm pretty sure it matters to Jim Pohlad. 

 

Jim pays the salary regardless of what happens. It's a non factor in the decision. 

[Doomtints]

 

That's right. I forgot they added him. Sort of assumed he want since Jorge got the call before he did.

 

In this case it's more about who is on the 25, since that's where Hughes is and will stay unless cut.

[Deduno Abides]

The salary isn't as big an issue if the team determines he can't be effective any longer. The real stress is being wrong about that decision if he recovers in year two post-surgery.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The salary isn't as big an issue if the team determines he can't be effective any longer. The real stress is being wrong about that decision if he recovers in year two post-surgery.

 

As opposed to the stress of being wrong in keeping him and him being bad? Which is the more likely outcome, that's how the FO should act, based on their projections of the future, not out of fear or stress.

[yarnivek1972]

Jim pays the salary regardless of what happens. It's a non factor in the decision.

You continuing to repeat it doesn't make it anymore true.

 

The family history suggests that they will try to at least make him earn that money. There were plenty of other big salaries the Twins could have released over the last 20 years. Rarely did they. And not for nearly the amount owed to Hughes.

[Doomtints]

 

You continuing to repeat it doesn't make it anymore true.

The family history suggests that they will try to at least make him earn that money. There were plenty of other big salaries the Twins could have released over the last 20 years. Rarely did they. And not for nearly the amount owed to Hughes.

It's impossible to separate "family history" from "Terry Ryan history" so we don't know if this is true.

[Mr. Brooks]

In regards to the few posters who have brought up insurance.

I'm pretty sure it only pays out if he misses an entire season.

[yarnivek1972]

In regards to the few posters who have brought up insurance.

I'm pretty sure it only pays out if he misses an entire season.

Actually, there is a certain pct or number of games. What that number is, I have no idea. Back when Eric Milton missed almost all year (2003 maybe?) he was covered even though he came back in September. Indeed, his being covered allowed the Twins to bring in Kenny Rogers.

[Deduno Abides]

As opposed to the stress of being wrong in keeping him and him being bad? Which is the more likely outcome, that's how the FO should act, based on their projections of the future, not out of fear or stress.

Keeping him if they think he can get better isn't a big problem until a roster crunch occurs, which could be before the Rule V draft or during spring training cut-downs.

[old nurse]

There really isn't a lot of elite athlete data on TOS. Matt Harrison had it in 2009 and it took him until 2011 to come back. 2 years later other injuries would derail his career, but the first tos did not.  But it is realy important to make the decision now based on no idea of anything.

[Deduno Abides]

It's impossible to separate "family history" from "Terry Ryan history" so we don't know if this is true.

Or playing in the Metrodome history or before Joe Mauer's contract history. You could even make a case that Terry Ryan started to spend on pitchers, but only on a quantity of sub-market pitchers who would take sub-market deals, plus Ervin Santana, instead of focused spending on good pitchers.

[Mr. Brooks]

Actually, there is a certain pct or number of games. What that number is, I have no idea. Back when Eric Milton missed almost all year (2003 maybe?) he was covered even though he came back in September. Indeed, his being covered allowed the Twins to bring in Kenny Rogers.

So I did some research and you are correct on this. Most policies require a 60 to 90 day "deductible", basically. The team eats those first 2-3 months of the injury, then insurance covers a percentages of the rest - typically 50 to 80%.

 

A couple interesting things I learned.

One, these policies are expensive. On average about 10% of salary for a pitcher.

Two, they often won't even cover pitchers elbow or shoulder, because those are so common. The Diamondbacks had made an offer to resign Brandon Webb, but retracted the offer when the insurance company refused to write a policy covering his right arm.

So, for all we know the Twins may not even have insurance on Hughes.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Keeping him if they think he can get better isn't a big problem until a roster crunch occurs, which could be before the Rule V draft or during spring training cut-downs.

 

If you keep him, you don't sign someone to replace him, right?