Article: Dozier's Disastrous Rookie Season

[70charger]

I think Nick is being a bit negative here. Baseball is littered with examples of people who didn't make it their first time around, and given that Dozier was hardly considered a big prospect, it's not surprising that he struggled. I do think he needs to earn his spot next year, but given his age, it isn't wise to write him off as a bust either. Let's see how he handles Rochester and how he does during his second stint before we call him a bust.

 

I agree with this. We needed to have tempered expectations from the very beginning, but what Dozier has done isn't really out of the ordinary. He's a rookie who struggled. What else is new?

 

Hopefully, the demotion will give him a message that he's got to listen to the coaches and earn it on the field, but I don't think there's any embarrassment there. Nor should there be. I still have hopes that Dozier will be more than a utility guy. Maybe he won't stick at his position for a decade plus, but he could stick around longer than we think.

[StormJH1]

We shouldn't be surprised by his struggles. One good season in the minors doesn't really mean all that much. Our media here talked him up like he was the next big thing. He's not.

He looks like a utility guy to me.

 

This.

 

I understand that Dozier hasn't been good. I'm okay with classifying him as a somewhat "bad" baseball player right now. But to say that he's season has been a "disaster" indicates that there was some expectation he was going to be this plus defender with a great bat right out of the gate. In reality, he was a post-hype prospect before he ever got here, and if even his glove had been decent, we'd have called him up last year.

 

I don't think there was any realistic expectation for Dozier to be an MLB starter. This is the problem with Twins fans - they just assume that the next guy in line in AAA is the next Mauer, Morneau, or Kubel....or at least a "prospect" of some kind. That isn't always the case, and the Twins' farm system just hasn't been producing those 22-25 year old guys recently. Plouffe may be the one exception, if he stays productive.

[Seth Stohs]

I dont know that I would classify it as a disaster but more of this is who he is. Dozier is too old to be considered a decent prospect and the org rankings everywhere reflected that. Dozier has a chance to be a fair utility guy at best which has value. Levi Michael is a similar "too old for his level" guy with utility upside but at least the Twins didnt waste a first rounder on Dozier.

 

I agree that Levi Michael is a future utility infielder in the majors, but how can you say he's too old for his level? He turned 21 in February, so he's about 21.5 years old. The average hitter on the Ft. Myers Miracle roster is 22.5, and the average age of a hitter in the Florida State League is 22.7.

[tomcat]

Running players back and forth between Mpls and Rochester appears to be Twins management way of demonstrating they are in control and are keen evaluators of players talents. I believe it shows just the opposite, they are throwing darts at board hoping someone will prove capable of positively contributing for longer than two weeks at a time. Ryan needs to be put out to pasture.

[one_eyed_jack]

We shouldn't be surprised by his struggles. One good season in the minors doesn't really mean all that much. Our media here talked him up like he was the next big thing. He's not.

He looks like a utility guy to me.

 

This.

 

I understand that Dozier hasn't been good. I'm okay with classifying him as a somewhat "bad" baseball player right now. But to say that he's season has been a "disaster" indicates that there was some expectation he was going to be this plus defender with a great bat right out of the gate. In reality, he was a post-hype prospect before he ever got here, and if even his glove had been decent, we'd have called him up last year.

 

I don't think there was any realistic expectation for Dozier to be an MLB starter. This is the problem with Twins fans - they just assume that the next guy in line in AAA is the next Mauer, Morneau, or Kubel....or at least a "prospect" of some kind. That isn't always the case, and the Twins' farm system just hasn't been producing those 22-25 year old guys recently. Plouffe may be the one exception, if he stays productive.

 

And this. No doubt he hasn't been playing well and deserved to be sent down. But his stint up here wasn't a total loss. He made some nice plays in the field, and showed he has some pop in his bat. So the term 'disastrous' strikes me as a bit of an overstatement. Nishioka was disastrous. Dozier is a rookie who struggled in his first stint in the majors, but you at least some glimpses of a competent MLB player.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

"Disaster" seems a bit harsh from my perspective. His plate discipline has been disappointing given his minor league track record, but a rookie needing to make adjustments in this regard is nothing new. In the field he's made some errorrs, but has shown decent range and turned his share of double plays. I'd like to think he can come back up later in the year or next season and show a competent ML skill set. At least he's cheap - Dozier + $6m > JJ Hardy.

[Jim H]

I don't think Dozier was a disaster either. I also think it far too early to decide he is a utility player. He is really no worse than Bartlett was in his first go round with the Twins.

 

An interesting question is why send him down now? My take on the answer is Ryan is trying to figure out what he has for next year. Florimon is probably not the answer as the starting SS but if he is even a temporary answer or a potential utility man, well that is one less thing to look for this off season. Assuming they still view Dozier as the medium term solution at short, then maybe they don't add a middle infielder or they target a 2b and let Florimon/Carroll handle short until Dozier is really ready.

 

Ryan has indicated that he thinks there is more to fix than just starting pitching. He hasn't been all that specific on what he thinks needs changing/fixing. I am beginning to think that while he won't blow up the team, he will make more significant changes than just sign a couple of free agent pitchers.

[peterb18]

yet no mention on Carroll's D last night in the postgame stuff. He's no longer a SS, but will likely command too many innings there.

 

Lowered expectations with this team. Slug hitters in the middle is ok as long as they can play D.

 

Shows what happens when the talent pool is thin.

 

Carroll just missed a great play early in the game and had a crazy hop that was hardly his fault. If you look at advanced stats he has been exceptional at SS, great at 3B and awesome at 2B. The guy can flat out field.

 

Carroll is just a good baseball player. I really enjoy watching him play. If Dozier and Michael after over 3,000 at bats have a .274 lifetime average and can play the field like Jamie, the Twins would be very happy!

[jokin]

"Disaster" seems a bit harsh from my perspective. His plate discipline has been disappointing given his minor league track record, but a rookie needing to make adjustments in this regard is nothing new. In the field he's made some errorrs, but has shown decent range and turned his share of double plays. I'd like to think he can come back up later in the year or next season and show a competent ML skill set. At least he's cheap - Dozier + $6m > JJ Hardy.

 

This simply is untrue. Hardy is most certainly not having a great year at the plate, in large part due to the luck factor involved with his numbers being pulled down by a low BABIP (.235), but his fielding has stayed at a near elite level. But the WAR numbers completely contradict what you state:

 

Hardy WAR 1.1 Value $5M FLD 5.6 (Baseball Reference WAR: 1.5/RAR 16)

Dozier WAR 0.0 Value -$0.1M FLD -0.9 (Baseball Reference WAR: 0.4/RAR 5)

 

As a true Gardy guy, Dozier will get plenty more chances at SS or 2B, I agree that he has shown enough flashes to have earned those extra second chances.

[70charger]

"Disaster" seems a bit harsh from my perspective. His plate discipline has been disappointing given his minor league track record, but a rookie needing to make adjustments in this regard is nothing new. In the field he's made some errorrs, but has shown decent range and turned his share of double plays. I'd like to think he can come back up later in the year or next season and show a competent ML skill set. At least he's cheap - Dozier + $6m > JJ Hardy.

 

This simply is untrue. Hardy is most certainly not having a great year at the plate, in large part due to the luck factor involved with his numbers being pulled down by a low BABIP (.235), but his fielding has stayed at a near elite level. But the WAR numbers completely contradict what you state:

 

Hardy WAR 1.1 Value $5M FLD 5.6 (Baseball Reference WAR: 1.5/RAR 16)

Dozier WAR 0.0 Value -$0.1M FLD -0.9 (Baseball Reference WAR: 0.4/RAR 5)

 

As a true Gardy guy, Dozier will get plenty more chances at SS or 2B, I agree that he has shown enough flashes to have earned those extra second chances.

 

Can you buy 1.1 or 1.2 WAR with that extra $6 million? I think you can. And if so, the math works.

 

Basically what I'm saying is that nobody really thinks that Dozier is better than Hardy at the moment. But is Dozier minus $6 million in salary commitment better than an over the hill shortstop with good defense, too many injuries, and no bat? Yeah, probably.

[CDog]

The question keeps coming up why they waited until now. Here's my absolutely non-factual, non-informed guess. They had talked about it--maybe were even ready to do it--and then Plouffe got hurt leaving them an infielder short. OK, we'll keep him up. Plouffe then needs to miss more time than they thought, and they still need to keep him up plus they bring up Nishioka. Nishioka plays three of the worst games anyone can remember. And now it would be ridiculous to send Dozier down while Nishioka is still with the team. But they keep Nishioka over the weekend as emergency backup with no Plouffe, send him down, and then send Dozier down after Plouffe is back. Wouldn't it make more sense if he had been sent down three weeks ago? And it fits with some comments from even before the move was made that they had been discussing it for a while.

 

To reiterate, that's complete conjecture, but I'm a little bored tonight.

[Shane Wahl]

There he is, Brian Dozier, at short for Rochester tonight. This is just straight dumb as hell. There is a clear path for him at 2B. A solid defensive 2B with a bit of power and baseball smarts would be good in 2013. Casilla only had one of those qualities and Carroll two of them. They actually moved Escobar to 3B at Rochester!!!! Florimon deserves a chance, yes, but that has to come why Dozier is playing 2B in Rochester. This is obvious.

[Shane Wahl]

Rantz needs to be fired. This is clear. There was zero reason to promote Dozier given his AAA performance. This organization should view AA and AAA differently. AAA time does good things for players (see Parmelee and Revere this year, FINALLY). Stagnating them at AA and them jumping them to MLB without adequate AAA experience has demonstrated an incompetent approach to the Minors on the part of Rantz and company. Dozier is merely more evidence for my claim that significant AAA time is valuable (hopefully Hendriks continues this).

[70charger]

Rantz needs to be fired. This is clear. There was zero reason to promote Dozier given his AAA performance. This organization should view AA and AAA differently. AAA time does good things for players (see Parmelee and Revere this year, FINALLY). Stagnating them at AA and them jumping them to MLB without adequate AAA experience has demonstrated an incompetent approach to the Minors on the part of Rantz and company. Dozier is merely more evidence for my claim that significant AAA time is valuable (hopefully Hendriks continues this).

 

Blah, blah, blah, fire the bums!

 

Exactly who do you think was better than Dozier when he was called up? Who is better than Dozier now? Exactly what the **** does Jim Rantz have to do with it?

[Top Gun]

Dozier did ok, give him a little break, he will be back up sept 1.

[Shane Wahl]

Rantz needs to be fired. This is clear. There was zero reason to promote Dozier given his AAA performance. This organization should view AA and AAA differently. AAA time does good things for players (see Parmelee and Revere this year, FINALLY). Stagnating them at AA and them jumping them to MLB without adequate AAA experience has demonstrated an incompetent approach to the Minors on the part of Rantz and company. Dozier is merely more evidence for my claim that significant AAA time is valuable (hopefully Hendriks continues this).

 

Blah, blah, blah, fire the bums!

 

Exactly who do you think was better than Dozier when he was called up? Who is better than Dozier now? Exactly what the **** does Jim Rantz have to do with it?

 

It isn't blah, blah, blah. Dozier is better than Alexi Casilla. But that does not mean that Dozier replaces Casilla before Dozier has had a chance to prove himself this year in the minors. He had an excellent 2011 as an MI. But only into AA. I would have liked to see that extend to AAA this year, but the Twins have a ridiculous view about AAA. Dozier was NOT good in his limited time, but they promoted him anyway. I would have preferred him seeing time at both MI positions at Rochester and posting a .720+ OPS before calling him up. Casilla was there all along. Florimon has less upside and could have been the other guy on the roster when Valencia was demoted. Or Burroughs.

[Nick Nelson]

Many people have claimed that calling Dozier's debut stint a disaster is hyperbole. Maybe they're right. I might be off the mark, but I'm puzzled when I see comments like "Dozier has been OK" because in my mind he's been a complete mess. Among the worst hitters in the major leagues, and his defense to me has been a liability. I guess you can be generous and say he's got decent range, but for a guy whose polish and intangibles were supposed to make up for a lack of exceptional talent, the rate of misplays has been – to me – unacceptable.

 

I'm not passing eternal judgment on him, but given that I've been forced to pin my hopes on him becoming the team's answer at 2B/SS, I can't hide my disappointment over what he showed in a non-tiny 85-game audition.

[twinsnorth49]

Rantz needs to be fired. This is clear. There was zero reason to promote Dozier given his AAA performance. This organization should view AA and AAA differently. AAA time does good things for players (see Parmelee and Revere this year, FINALLY). Stagnating them at AA and them jumping them to MLB without adequate AAA experience has demonstrated an incompetent approach to the Minors on the part of Rantz and company. Dozier is merely more evidence for my claim that significant AAA time is valuable (hopefully Hendriks continues this).

 

Blah, blah, blah, fire the bums!

 

Exactly who do you think was better than Dozier when he was called up? Who is better than Dozier now? Exactly what the **** does Jim Rantz have to do with it?

 

It isn't blah, blah, blah. Dozier is better than Alexi Casilla. But that does not mean that Dozier replaces Casilla before Dozier has had a chance to prove himself this year in the minors. He had an excellent 2011 as an MI. But only into AA. I would have liked to see that extend to AAA this year, but the Twins have a ridiculous view about AAA. Dozier was NOT good in his limited time, but they promoted him anyway. I would have preferred him seeing time at both MI positions at Rochester and posting a .720+ OPS before calling him up. Casilla was there all along. Florimon has less upside and could have been the other guy on the roster when Valencia was demoted. Or Burroughs.

 

I haven't seen the evidence of that yet, sadly.

[Guest USAFChief]

There he is, Brian Dozier, at short for Rochester tonight. This is just straight dumb as hell. There is a clear path for him at 2B. A solid defensive 2B with a bit of power and baseball smarts would be good in 2013. Casilla only had one of those qualities and Carroll two of them. They actually moved Escobar to 3B at Rochester!!!! Florimon deserves a chance, yes, but that has to come why Dozier is playing 2B in Rochester. This is obvious.

 

I think what would be dumb as hell would be overreacting to a poor rookie debut and moving a SS off SS until there is more evidence he cant play SS. Or at least until SS is filled by a better option.

 

But then again I thought it would have been dumb as hell to overreact to 100 PAs against LHers and platoon Morneau with Danny Valencia too, so what do I know?

[Dilligaf69]

Rantz needs to be fired. This is clear. There was zero reason to promote Dozier given his AAA performance. This organization should view AA and AAA differently. AAA time does good things for players (see Parmelee and Revere this year, FINALLY). Stagnating them at AA and them jumping them to MLB without adequate AAA experience has demonstrated an incompetent approach to the Minors on the part of Rantz and company. Dozier is merely more evidence for my claim that significant AAA time is valuable (hopefully Hendriks continues this).

 

Blah, blah, blah, fire the bums!

 

Exactly who do you think was better than Dozier when he was called up? Who is better than Dozier now? Exactly what the **** does Jim Rantz have to do with it?

 

 

 

I agree it had more to do with lack of options then anything else and most EVERYBODY wanted Dozier on this team in April...now I realize that Nishi was the other option but that's my point. I also do not agree that his entire season so far has been a disaster. Yes he needs to improve his consistency and K/W ratio and be better defensively but he was'nt completely useless. he showed flasehes dfensively and some occasional pop. Ithink the Twins should move him to 2B and find an everyday SS via trade. Dozier still has a bright future with this team IMO and I think many would agree??

[Dilligaf69]

There he is, Brian Dozier, at short for Rochester tonight. This is just straight dumb as hell. There is a clear path for him at 2B. A solid defensive 2B with a bit of power and baseball smarts would be good in 2013. Casilla only had one of those qualities and Carroll two of them. They actually moved Escobar to 3B at Rochester!!!! Florimon deserves a chance, yes, but that has to come why Dozier is playing 2B in Rochester. This is obvious.

 

I think what would be dumb as hell would be overreacting to a poor rookie debut and moving a SS off SS until there is more evidence he cant play SS. Or at least until SS is filled by a better option.

 

But then again I thought it would have been dumb as hell to overreact to 100 PAs against LHers and platoon Morneau with Danny Valencia too, so what do I know?

 

Yes....only move Dozier to 2B IF they find a better option at SS!...hence my idea of maybe accuiring a SS this offseason. If Hammer/Justin/Span can't /won't net us a top starter then they can probably net us a starting SS.

[TheLeviathan]

At this point - Carroll and Casilla are both better options than Dozier. Unfortunately, Dozier should have been refining his game in AAA weeks ago and getting an extended trial the last month and a half. As it is, they basically took an entire season to watch him fail miserably and make zero progress towards being a better option.

[Guest USAFChief]

At this point - Carroll and Casilla are both better options than Dozier.

 

38 yr old Jamie Carroll? How does that help the mythical 2014 Twins team you advocate?

 

The same Alexi Casilla who has a lower BA, OBP and SLG than Dozier? Who was given the SS position out of spring training last year but couldn't hold on to it for a month and a half? Who hasnt even been able to hold onto the 2nd base job despite multiple opportunities? That Alexi Casilla?

[TheLeviathan]

38 yr old Jamie Carroll? How does that help the mythical 2014 Twins team you advocate?

 

The same Alexi Casilla who has a lower BA, OBP and SLG than Dozier? Who was given the SS position out of spring training last year but couldn't hold on to it for a month and a half? Who hasnt even been able to hold onto the 2nd base job despite multiple opportunities? That Alexi Casilla?

 

Yes, that Alexi Casilla. The one we should cut after this season. The way Dozier has played the position defensively, it's not a stretch to say Casilla would be better right now.

 

Anyone who suggests that we should be worried about winning now and next season (as you have) shouldn't be advocating Dozier to be getting significant time until he's actually ready. He's spent the last three months demonstrating that he is not ready and shouldn't be playing. Personally - I think he should have been sent down at the all-star break, worked on things for a month, and come back right around now. He's potentially part of the future so we should've been treating his development with more care.

 

But the idea that he's clearly the best SS option we have isn't backed up by his play - defensively or offensively.

[BD57]

Greg Gagne hit .225 in 114 games his first year playing any significant amount. Granted, he was 23 at the time .... if that really means anything.

 

Dozier has done some good things and has screwed up some things. He has obvious weaknesses - issue isn't "how old are you?", it's "will you learn & improve?"

 

Not saying he's going to become a "average or better MLB SS" .... I am saying I think it's a mistake to write hom off.

[twinsnorth49]

At this point - Carroll and Casilla are both better options than Dozier.

 

38 yr old Jamie Carroll? How does that help the mythical 2014 Twins team you advocate?

 

The same Alexi Casilla who has a lower BA, OBP and SLG than Dozier? Who was given the SS position out of spring training last year but couldn't hold on to it for a month and a half? Who hasnt even been able to hold onto the 2nd base job despite multiple opportunities? That Alexi Casilla?

 

Christ, this is like comparing the bottom rung of the ladder to the second rung, pretty sad state of affairs when you're supporting one of these guys over the other. Dozier may have (marginally) higher BA, OBP and SLG than Casilla but if he is the future at one of the MI spots his line better look a whole lot better than Casilla's to make up for his defense. Dozier is only the future on this club if he is a significant upgrade at the plate than guys like Casilla and others who profile like him.