Quintana to the Cubs

[Mike Sixel]

 

I know that he has a reputation and I am in the minority, but I have heard lots of praise from others, but I look at him as a bundle of potential and a good pitcher, but I think he has performed as a 3 and when I say he is underperforming it is because I think that with his talent he should be a 1.5 or 2 and not a 3.  I know he was the ace for the sox, but 50 - 54 record over 6 years means he has not pitched deep enough to control the game and get either a win or a loss and his 3;13 K/W rate should be much better.  Too many walks.   His 1.25 Whip is too high for a #1 pitcher and that is the price the cubs just paid. 

 

Now that does not mean he would not go to the head of our rotation, but he is not the value that has been projected. 

 

I don't think the Cubs paid for a number 1, they paid for a number 2 that has 3.5 years of super cheap control. super cheap.

 

And, yes, we don't agree that looking at w-l record is probably a good idea, since the Sox are a terrible, terrible, team and wins and losses are a team stat.

[Mr. Brooks]

I know that he has a reputation and I am in the minority, but I have heard lots of praise from others, but I look at him as a bundle of potential and a good pitcher, but I think he has performed as a 3 and when I say he is underperforming it is because I think that with his talent he should be a 1.5 or 2 and not a 3. I know he was the ace for the sox, but 50 - 54 record over 6 years means he has not pitched deep enough to control the game and get either a win or a loss and his 3;13 K/W rate should be much better. Too many walks. His 1.25 Whip is too high for a #1 pitcher and that is the price the cubs just paid.

 

Now that does not mean he would not go to the head of our rotation, but he is not the value that has been projected.

 

I expected my comment to draw reactions so thanks for letting me dive in further.

4 straight seasons over 200 innings.

Those rank 10th, 19th, 31st, and 32nd in all of baseball in their respective seasons.

How many guys in all of baseball are pitching deeper into games than him?

Can't be more than 10 or 15, tops, right?

[Winston Smith]

How much is Archer worth now?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I don't think the Cubs paid for a number 1, they paid for a number 2 that has 3.5 years of super cheap control. super cheap.

 

Yeah we didn't have to pay the ransom of a Chris Sale deal so this actually costing 2 HUGE players that wouldn't impact the MLB roster for 2-3 yrs and still have other players blocking them is completely fine considering the money owned to Quintana:  8.5M in 2018, 10.5M in 2019, 10.5M in 2020.  Considering that some of the positional players are going to get PAID hella soon great deal, also Arrieta is gone as a FA at season's end and John Lackey is likely retiring.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

How much is Archer worth now?

Ain't going anywhere with Tampa in the race and his contract is extremely team friendly.  Still pissed he was sent away in the Matt Garza deal years ago.  Revisionist history, Rays wanted RHP Trey McNutt, Cubs didn't want to part with him, so instead dealt Archer whom was thought to be a possible closer in the future due to arm action, size, health.

[old nurse]

 

How much is Archer worth now?

At a minimum Sano, Berrios, Gordon as well as 2-3 "throw ins"

[biggentleben]

 

JP crawford is a top 5 prospect right? you wouldn't take Nick G over him?.. just saying the difference is not that big, Gordon higher level and Romero>Cease I believe

 

Crawford was not in the top 50 for BA's midseason list.

[biggentleben]

 

How much is Archer worth now?

 

He's worth more to the Rays than anyone else right now as they're currently in one of the WC spots.

[old nurse]

 

 

Ain't going anywhere with Tampa in the race and his contract is extremely team friendly.  Still pissed he was sent away in the Matt Garza deal years ago.  Revisionist history, Rays wanted RHP Trey McNutt, Cubs didn't want to part with him, so instead dealt Archer whom was thought to be a possible closer in the future due to arm action, size, health.

In regards to McNutt the Cubs learned to trade when the player's value is high.  Crease is a good prospect but has a long ways to go by some evaluations, Far better to have  3 years of Quintana

[SwainZag]

 

At a minimum Sano, Berrios, Gordon as well as 2-3 "throw ins"

 

If that is Archer's minimum price he will no doubt stay a Ray for at least another season

[Vanimal46]

It might be that this board underrates Quintana and his cheap contract.

Concur.

[Vanimal46]

This is a very good deal for the Cubs. Quintana is going to be a stud for them. Sooner than later he'll take over Lester's spot as ace in the rotation during his decline years.

 

Good luck to the White Sox developing these young players. So far they're 1 for 3 with Moncada looking legit. Giolito and Lopez have a ways to go.

[gman]

This was a good measuring stick for what the Twins could get for Santana. Hope we can pull off this kind of deal and get several more prospects. Keep the options open, the Yankees are looking for both starters and relievers and have a very strong farm system. 

[jimmer]

 

This was a good measuring stick for what the Twins could get for Santana. Hope we can pull off this kind of deal and get several more prospects. Keep the options open, the Yankees are looking for both starters and relievers and have a very strong farm system. 

Santana isn't worth close to what Quintana is worth.  Quintana is better, much younger, cheaper and under control for longer.  If anything, this should make some fans' expectations more realistic

[Vanimal46]

This was a good measuring stick for what the Twins could get for Santana. Hope we can pull off this kind of deal and get several more prospects. Keep the options open, the Yankees are looking for both starters and relievers and have a very strong farm system.

 

This isn't a measuring stick at all. 2 completely different situations. Santana is 34, Quintana is 28. Quintana has 4/34 left on his contract. Santana is $13-14 MM for the next 2 years. Quintana is far more valuable trade commodity than Erv.

[gman]

 

Santana isn't worth close to what Quintana is worth.  Quintana is better, much younger, cheaper and under control for longer.  If anything, this should make some fans' expectations more realistic

Never said equal, I said measuring stick. Plus Quintana is no longer available.

[jimmer]

 

Never said equal, I said measuring stick. Plus Quintana is no longer available.

Yeah, but you also said you hope we can pull off this kind of deal for Santana.  That seems to imply the same kind of haul.  Which would imply he's worth about the same.

 

I must have completely misunderstood.

[MN_ExPat]

You know folks, this is really starting to sound like the ol' .45 is WAAAAAAY better/cooler/manlier than 9mm arugument (it is but that's irrelevant right now).

[old nurse]

 

Never said equal, I said measuring stick. Plus Quintana is no longer available.

As a measuring stick one could infer that Santana could be worth a top prospect and a pair of lottery tickets.  The Mike Leake trade might be a better measuring stick (Adam Duval, mashing OF).  The Rich Hill trade should be an example of what not to do.

[brvama]

They had some assets to trade.

 

To go back to 2012, at random: They could have traded Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Josh Willingham at the deadline. They refused. 

 

They could have traded other players at the deadline in each year from 2011 through 2014. They did very little of that, beyond the dual Span-Revere trades. 

 

While I'm not so stupid as to pretend that the Twins had anything of the caliber of a Chris Sale or a Jose Quintana -- not even close -- they could well have traded Perkins when his value was highest for a pretty good return, and they didn't do it. There were points at which they could have traded Joe Mauer and his full contract to the Boston Red Sox (pre-concussion) and they didn't do it. 

 

They could have traded Phil Hughes at the deadline in 2014 and he would have fetched a ton given his performance that year. He had a sub-4 ERA and set a league record for control that year, and was under team control for two more years at a reasonable rate. 

 

As I said, they never had White Sox-level assets. But don't tell me the Twins didn't have assets to trade. Don't tell me that they had "reasons" not to trade guys. There are always reasons not to trade players. When yiou lose 90-plus games for five years in six, you make tough choices. The Twins didn't do that.

Maybe you should reread my comment. I did not say they didn't have assets to trade. I stated that they did not have the level of assets that CWS had and thus would not have acquired theassets that they have. Even in your response you state that very thing. I humbling caution all of us not to read something in our comments that aren't there.

[olivia11]

Just curious as to what people are thinking Santana's market might be given the Quintana trade and the likelihood that Archer really isn't on the market...

 

Using the Yankees as an example (just because someone brought them up), could any of these be about right Santana trade? (That is, a Santana trade that Falvey and Levine would actually accept with the Twins being borderline "in it"). 

 

Option 1:

LHP Justus Sheffield (#66 mlb, #73 BA - currently in AA)

RHP Chance Adams (#93 mlb, not ranked in BA top 100 - currently in AAA)

 

 

Option 2:

LHP Justus Sheffield (#66 mlb, #73 BA - currently in AA)

RHP Albert Abreu (no top 100s, #10 Yankees prospect, potential frontline starter but likely reliever - currently in A+)

OF Estevan Florial (no top 100s, #15 Yankees prospect - currently in A)

 

[mikelink45]

 

I don't think the Cubs paid for a number 1, they paid for a number 2 that has 3.5 years of super cheap control. super cheap.

 

And, yes, we don't agree that looking at w-l record is probably a good idea, since the Sox are a terrible, terrible, team and wins and losses are a team stat.

It is not the wins versus losses, but the total of both that concerns me.  A good pitcher will stay around to tally more of both. 

[mikelink45]

 

4 straight seasons over 200 innings.
Those rank 10th, 19th, 31st, and 32nd in all of baseball in their respective seasons.
How many guys in all of baseball are pitching deeper into games than him?
Can't be more than 10 or 15, tops, right?

It is more of a reflection on the fact that we no longer allow pitchers to complete games.  He had 200 - 208 innings per year for the last four.  

[bird]

 

A trade of this caliber would pretty much empty the middle and the top of the twins farm system of good talent.  Watch out for the Sox!

 

I think this is overstating it a bit. At the time of the signing of each guy, Wander Javier compares rather favorably, maybe a half notch below,  to Eloy Jiminez, and Fernando Romero isn't really completely outclassed by Dylan Cease. The other two Cubs prospects are of close to no consequence at all, both erratic and old for their levels and not considered to be real prospects frankly. So while Jiminez/Cease are a notch more valuable than Javier/Romero are today, they may have looked enticing with another decent prospect added to the mix. We certainly would not have  "empty the farm system of good talent" to put a reasonable offer on the table.

 

But I agree that Chicago has really bolstered their future chances. Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Cease, and even Fulmer. Impressive.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Just curious as to what people are thinking Santana's market might be given the Quintana trade and the likelihood that Archer really isn't on the market...

 

Using the Yankees as an example (just because someone brought them up), could any of these be about right Santana trade? (That is, a Santana trade that Falvey and Levine would actually accept with the Twins being borderline "in it"). 

 

Option 1:

LHP Justus Sheffield (#66 mlb, #73 BA - currently in AA)

RHP Chance Adams (#93 mlb, not ranked in BA top 100 - currently in AAA)

 

 

Option 2:

LHP Justus Sheffield (#66 mlb, #73 BA - currently in AA)

RHP Albert Abreu (no top 100s, #10 Yankees prospect, potential frontline starter but likely reliever - currently in A+)

OF Estevan Florial (no top 100s, #15 Yankees prospect - currently in A)

I'll go ahead and say I'd take either.

Of course, the Twins would have to feel that they can get Sheffield to throw more strikes and keep the walks down. Lots of pitchers have excellent K/9 and never make it because you cannot make it in MLB when your WHIP is too high and you are getting behind in the count on a regular basis (see Meyer, Alex).

[Mike Sixel]

Am unranked prospect is not in the same discussion as the number five prospect in the game. Not close.

[Mike Sixel]

Just curious as to what people are thinking Santana's market might be given the Quintana trade and the likelihood that Archer really isn't on the market...

 

Using the Yankees as an example (just because someone brought them up), could any of these be about right Santana trade? (That is, a Santana trade that Falvey and Levine would actually accept with the Twins being borderline "in it").

 

Option 1:

LHP Justus Sheffield (#66 mlb, #73 BA - currently in AA)

RHP Chance Adams (#93 mlb, not ranked in BA top 100 - currently in AAA currently in A)

I would take either, probably, but would need to read more to be sure. I probably want one more flier

[Mr. Brooks]

I think this is overstating it a bit. At the time of the signing of each guy, Wander Javier compares rather favorably, maybe a half notch below, to Eloy Jiminez, and Fernando Romero isn't really completely outclassed by Dylan Cease. The other two Cubs prospects are of close to no consequence at all, both erratic and old for their levels and not considered to be real prospects frankly. So while Jiminez/Cease are a notch more valuable than Javier/Romero are today, they may have looked enticing with another decent prospect added to the mix. We certainly would not have "empty the farm system of good talent" to put a reasonable offer on the table.

 

But I agree that Chicago has really bolstered their future chances. Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Cease, and even Fulmer. Impressive.

Just to clarify, you think Wander Javier is only slightly below the #5 prospect in all of baseball?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think this is overstating it a bit. At the time of the signing of each guy, Wander Javier compares rather favorably, maybe a half notch below, to Eloy Jiminez, and Fernando Romero isn't really completely outclassed by Dylan Cease. The other two Cubs prospects are of close to no consequence at all, both erratic and old for their levels and not considered to be real prospects frankly. So while Jiminez/Cease are a notch more valuable than Javier/Romero are today, they may have looked enticing with another decent prospect added to the mix. We certainly would not have "empty the farm system of good talent" to put a reasonable offer on the table.

 

But I agree that Chicago has really bolstered their future chances. Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Cease, and even Fulmer. Impressive.

A notch? Jimenez is the #5 prospect in baseball. I think there is more than a notch between him and Javier right now.

 

And while Romero is closer to Cease, I think it is pretty universally understood that Cease has more upside ace potential than Romero.

 

These are important distinctions. These blockbusters aren't generally built on quantity, they are built on quality. If you can't match the quality of the top 2 pieces, you can't really match the deal.

[FargoFanMan]

They had some assets to trade.

 

To go back to 2012, at random: They could have traded Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Josh Willingham at the deadline. They refused. 

 

They could have traded other players at the deadline in each year from 2011 through 2014. They did very little of that, beyond the dual Span-Revere trades. 

 

While I'm not so stupid as to pretend that the Twins had anything of the caliber of a Chris Sale or a Jose Quintana -- not even close -- they could well have traded Perkins when his value was highest for a pretty good return, and they didn't do it. There were points at which they could have traded Joe Mauer and his full contract to the Boston Red Sox (pre-concussion) and they didn't do it. 

 

They could have traded Phil Hughes at the deadline in 2014 and he would have fetched a ton given his performance that year. He had a sub-4 ERA and set a league record for control that year, and was under team control for two more years at a reasonable rate. 

 

As I said, they never had White Sox-level assets. But don't tell me the Twins didn't have assets to trade. Don't tell me that they had "reasons" not to trade guys. There are always reasons not to trade players. When you lose 90-plus games for five years in six, you make tough choices. The Twins didn't do that.

Not only this but they blew it multiple times in the 2000's by not trading anyone to boost a run. They coveted guys like Gibson and Arcia and such not "trading away the future" in order to stick to the plan of winning the division and getting bounced in the first round cause no help was ever added. So they got burned twice. 1) Never went past the first round. 2)The future they wouldn't deal for immediate help to win a title led to 5 years of cellar dwelling and we're now just getting back on our feet. Forget prospects! You keep a few to add depth to the big club but if the right deal is there trade them!