Quintana to the Cubs

[brvama]

Maybe it's my anti-WS bias, but I'm going to wait 2-3 yrs before I jump on the band wagon of how great their haul for future success these prospects are. "Prospects are still prospects until they aren't," as some smart poster has said before on this site.

[mazeville]

 

Interesting that the White Sox would work with the Cubs like this. 

 

The White Sox are almost looking like an Astros-like rebuild with the talent they now have in their pipeline.

 

They are going to be really, really good in a couple of years.

 

This is how you do an effective rebuild. You tear everything down and collect assets. Twins didn't do that. Drives me nuts.

[brvama]

They are going to be really, really good in a couple of years.

 

This is how you do an effective rebuild. You tear everything down and collect assets. Twins didn't do that. Drives me nuts.

The Twins really didn't have the assets to net trades like this.

[Taildragger8791]

 

They almost have to, right? Their position player pipeline is still really thin. Moancada and Jimenez are nice pieces (I guess like Buxton and Sano back in the day), but they don't really have any Gordons, Polancos, Keplers or even Rosarios also in the pipeline. Basically, if you broaden it to all 24-and-under position players (majors or minors), the Twins are way, way, way ahead of where the White Sox are.

 

Those mid-level players are easier to acquire than top-end pitching though. Free agency, the draft, and international free agency are all more reliable for finding decent position players at reasonable cost. Really good starting pitchers are more of a crapshoot to develop and are rarely available in free agency for less than a mint.

[twinsfanstreif]

wow, now the White Sox have 9 prospects on the MLB.com top 100 list, with the last being #68! that's crazy, they have the #1 prospect and 5 in the top 30. Baseball America is a little less friendly to them but on their midseason update this still puts 7 in the top 100. This reminds me of the Astros and the Cubs farm systems a few years ago, I believe they had 8 each on the top 100 list, we also had 7 at one point.

[bluechipper]

 

They are going to be really, really good in a couple of years.

 

This is how you do an effective rebuild. You tear everything down and collect assets. Twins didn't do that. Drives me nuts.

The White Sox had many more tradeable players while still being a bad team than the Twins did though. It's harder to tear it down when there's not much to tear down.

[jimmer]

They almost have to, right? Their position player pipeline is still really thin. Moancada and Jimenez are nice pieces (I guess like Buxton and Sano back in the day), but they don't really have any Gordons, Polancos, Keplers or even Rosarios also in the pipeline. Basically, if you broaden it to all 24-and-under position players (majors or minors), the Twins are way, way, way ahead of where the White Sox are.

White Sox now have, per BA midseason prospect rankings, the #1, #5, #20, #45, #59, #75 and #83 prospects.

 

We have 2 top 100 guys?

 

And that doeant even include Chicago's Alec Hansen, who was top 50 in BPs midseason list but somehow missed BAs top 100. Nor does it include Burger, their 1st round pick this year who will likely be their 3B in 2019.

[dbminn]

The White Sox are 11 games under .500 and headed south. They are doing what they need to rebuild. They will be strong about the time the Twins core group is eligible for free agency. (Maybe earlier, depending on who they get for Robertson and Frazier)

 

The Twins have five position players age 25 and under and are headed up. Two Twins starters are here to stay and are 23 and 24. There should be at least two more new relievers up later this year. Granite and Garver give the Twins some depth. They also have enough farm talent and available cash to acquire players and compete for the next four years.

 

I'd rather be the Twins than the White Sox. Of course, we could trade our MLB talent and build for 2021...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I often get asked what a comparable Twins deal might be...

 

The Twins don't have a prospect that's as highly touted as Eloy Jimenez, unless you want to say Byron Buxton.

 

So, the best I could come up with is:

 

Nick Gordon, Fernando Romero, Zander Wiel and Nelson Molina. 

Might be better to say "we couldn't make a comparable deal" so as not to mislead anyone.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

The Sox are absolutely stacked with rotation potential now. Wow.

 

Kopech and Cease alone make me drool.

And both have a higher chance of becoming pen arms than starters.

[gunnarthor]

 

wow, now the White Sox have 9 prospects on the MLB.com top 100 list, with the last being #68! that's crazy, they have the #1 prospect and 5 in the top 30. Baseball America is a little less friendly to them but on their midseason update this still puts 7 in the top 100. This reminds me of the Astros and the Cubs farm systems a few years ago, I believe they had 8 each on the top 100 list, we also had 7 at one point.

Twins systems were just as lauded. BP gave them 8 in a couple years, I believe Klaw gave them even more. Some of their prospects will work out, some won't. Right now, both Gioltio and Fullmer have era's over 5.00 in AAA. Kopech is struggling with his control. There's a lot of talent in the system but lot of risk too.  I probably like Cease a bit more than some of the arms ranked above him.  

 

 

 

[bluechipper]

 

Twins systems were just as lauded. BP gave them 8 in a couple years, I believe Klaw gave them even more. Some of their prospects will work out, some won't. Right now, both Gioltio and Fullmer have era's over 5.00 in AAA. Kopech is struggling with his control. There's a lot of talent in the system but lot of risk too.  I probably like Cease a bit more than some of the arms ranked above him.  

And Moncada has contact issues. He's got more strikeouts in AAA than Buxton has this year.

[SwainZag]

Before we go ripping the Twins for not rebuilding through trades like this, let's remember the Twins never had cost controlled above average starters like Sale and Quintana to pull this off.  

[raindog]

I'd trade Santana in a heartbeat for something close to this haul. I don't think he has the value of Quintana but maybe something close.

[nicksaviking]

 

And both have a higher chance of becoming pen arms than starters.

 

 

Twins systems were just as lauded. BP gave them 8 in a couple years, I believe Klaw gave them even more. Some of their prospects will work out, some won't. Right now, both Gioltio and Fullmer have era's over 5.00 in AAA. Kopech is struggling with his control. There's a lot of talent in the system but lot of risk too.  I probably like Cease a bit more than some of the arms ranked above him.  

 

I like the optimism, er pessimism?

 

Here's hoping for a future of Schadenfreude with the White Sox!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It's absolutely bizarre how the White Sox were never able to compete with Sale, Quintana, and the host of other good pitchers who came through the past several years. Good on them. Looks like a good deal for both teams.

[jorgenswest]

The only significant asset the Twins could have moved was Perkins.

[gunnarthor]

Let's also remember that for all the griping we have here, the White Sox are now on their 5th straight losing season so I'm not sure it's fair to suggest that they are rebuilding better than the Twins.

[Han Joelo]

Bully for both teams.  Still, seems like trying to build a team around a core of Sale, Quintana, and Eaton wasn't such a bad thing, either.  As a Twins and Johan Santana fan, I kind of feel like having an ace in the hand is better than three in the bush (leagues.)

[gunnarthor]

 

The only significant asset the Twins could have moved was Perkins.

Span was a major asset, it didn't work out. Dozier and Santana are arguably in that category as well. 

[markos]

 

White Sox now have, per BA midseason prospect rankings, the #1, #5, #20, #45, #59, #75 and #83 prospects.

We have 2 top 100 guys?

And that doeant even include Chicago's Alec Hansen, who was top 50 in BPs midseason list but somehow missed BAs top 100. Nor does it include Burger, their 1st round pick this year who will likely be their 3B in 2019.

Sure, but there is still a ton of risk buried in those rankings. They have had 4 top-11 picks and made 3 blockbuster trades, and they have focused 75% of the return on the riskiest, most high-variance asset in baseball - young pitching. Most analysis of prospect rankings has concluded that a pitcher will produce 25% to 50% less value over their team control than an equivalently ranked hitter. It seems like every other year there is talk about an amazing future pitching rotation that is working up through some teams minor league system, and over and over that has either failed to produce or fizzled out early.

 

And their two best position players have significant risks in their own right. Yes, Moncada is the #1 prospect in baseball, but he is no Kris Bryant or Corey Seager. He is striking out over 33% of the time in AAA and may or may not stay in the infield. Jimenez is also very good, but he is just in high-A and strickly a corner outfielder. If his bat fails to project for whatever reason - lack of contact, power, walks or whatever, then he is just a guy, not a GUY.

 

So maybe this all is just my pro-Twins thinking, but I really do think that the White Sox are on the road towards having an 80-85 win team four years that is good at piching but with mediocre hitting. At this point I don't see a future juggernaut. That said, they do have a couple more players to trade, as well as draft and free agency.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sure, but there is still a ton of risk buried in those rankings. They have had 4 top-11 picks and made 3 blockbuster trades, and they have focused 75% of the return on the riskiest, most high-variance asset in baseball - young pitching. Most analysis of prospect rankings has concluded that a pitcher will produce 25% to 50% less value over their team control than an equivalently ranked hitter. It seems like every other year there is talk about an amazing future pitching rotation that is working up through some teams minor league system, and over and over that has either failed to produce or fizzled out early.

 

And their two best position players have significant risks in their own right. Yes, Moncada is the #1 prospect in baseball, but he is no Kris Bryant or Corey Seager. He is striking out over 33% of the time in AAA and may or may not stay in the infield. Jimenez is also very good, but he is just in high-A and strickly a corner outfielder. If his bat fails to project for whatever reason - lack of contact, power, walks or whatever, then he is just a guy, not a GUY.

 

So maybe this all is just my pro-Twins thinking, but I really do think that the White Sox are on the road towards having an 80-85 win team four years that is good at piching but with mediocre hitting. At this point I don't see a future juggernaut. That said, they do have a couple more players to trade, as well as draft and free agency.

 

As opposed to a 80-85 TWins team that is good at hitting, but bad at pitching?

 

[Han Joelo]

 

Sure, but there is still a ton of risk buried in those rankings. They have had 4 top-11 picks and made 3 blockbuster trades, and they have focused 75% of the return on the riskiest, most high-variance asset in baseball - young pitching. Most analysis of prospect rankings has concluded that a pitcher will produce 25% to 50% less value over their team control than an equivalently ranked hitter. It seems like every other year there is talk about an amazing future pitching rotation that is working up through some teams minor league system, and over and over that has either failed to produce or fizzled out early.

 

And their two best position players have significant risks in their own right. Yes, Moncada is the #1 prospect in baseball, but he is no Kris Bryant or Corey Seager. He is striking out over 33% of the time in AAA and may or may not stay in the infield. Jimenez is also very good, but he is just in high-A and strickly a corner outfielder. If his bat fails to project for whatever reason - lack of contact, power, walks or whatever, then he is just a guy, not a GUY.

 

So maybe this all is just my pro-Twins thinking, but I really do think that the White Sox are on the road towards having an 80-85 win team four years that is good at piching but with mediocre hitting. At this point I don't see a future juggernaut. That said, they do have a couple more players to trade, as well as draft and free agency.

Kind of like what they had, only in the future.  Maybe.

[jimmer]

 

Sure, but there is still a ton of risk buried in those rankings.

Of course there is, one only needs to look at the prospect rating for a certain fleet footed CF as a cautionary tale of counting too much on how well prospect rating translate to MLB performance.

 

But it seems odd many people glorified the Twins former FO for the Twins high prospect rating when they had them and now want to give warnings and/or push aside the farm system the W Sox has assembled.

[jimmer]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-accurately-rate-underrated-jose-quintana/

 

[mazeville]

 

The White Sox had many more tradeable players while still being a bad team than the Twins did though. It's harder to tear it down when there's not much to tear down.

 

I get that. Different situations. But the Twins didn't even make a cursory effort. 

[Brandon]

The thing about the Whitesox farm is their depth is still not there. They will have to supplement their roster significantly when these guys come up over the next few years. Though they sure are making the most of thier assets in trades for prospects.

[nicksaviking]

*****Moderator Note******

 

Enough of the negativity/positivity stuff let's stay on topic.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The thing about the Whitesox farm is their depth is still not there. They will have to supplement their roster significantly when these guys come up over the next few years. Though they sure are making the most of thier assets in trades for prospects.

 

They have 2-4 years to build up depth behind those guys before they are where the Twins are now...

[jimmer]

 

The White Sox had many more tradeable players while still being a bad team than the Twins did though. It's harder to tear it down when there's not much to tear down.

While the person you responded to had a good point, which I agree with, this is a good point to (which I also agree with).  Very good thing to point out, IMO.