2018 Rotation

[Dantes929]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 3:34 PM, Deduno Abides said:

2008-2010 didn't win any playoff games. It's not a good model. The corollary to the theory of "just get to the playoffs and take your chances" is to add "if you have a couple of horses," which has a modern variation of "or at least one horse and an amazing bullpen." The 2018 team will need at least one horse, which the 2008-2010 teams did not have.

We had a 3-1 game two lead in the 9th inning with our all star closer on the mound in 2009.   We had a 1-0 lead going into the 7th in game three and ran ourselves off the bases in the 8th.    

In 2010 we had similar leads in the 6th and 7th of games one and two.   Starting pitching put us in position to win all those games.   Don't confuse didn't win with could not have won.  

 

 KC had a  worse model in 2015 and 2016.    Of course an ace is preferable but I am ok with taking our chances if we get to the playoffs.    Put the horse before the cart.    Get to the playoffs and you have a chance.   Don't get there and you have no chance.  Is trading offensive talent for pitching talent going to get us there?   If so, then do it.   If internal pitching guys step up and can get us to the playoffs without sacrificing Gordon or Kepler or Buxton.  That is ok also.   These guys don't impress me as still being afraid of the Yankees or anyone else  if they do get there.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 4:35 PM, Dantes929 said:

We had a 3-1 game two lead in the 9th inning with our all star closer on the mound in 2009.   We had a 1-0 lead going into the 7th in game three and ran ourselves off the bases in the 8th.    

In 2010 we had similar leads in the 6th and 7th of games one and two.   Starting pitching put us in position to win all those games.   Don't confuse didn't win with could not have won.  

 

 KC had a  worse model in 2015 and 2016.    Of course an ace is preferable but I am ok with taking our chances if we get to the playoffs.    Put the horse before the cart.    Get to the playoffs and you have a chance.   Don't get there and you have no chance.  Is trading offensive talent for pitching talent going to get us there?   If so, then do it.   If internal pitching guys step up and can get us to the playoffs without sacrificing Gordon or Kepler or Buxton.  That is ok also.   These guys don't impress me as still being afraid of the Yankees or anyone else  if they do get there.

 

KC built a GREAT bullpen. How's that going here, with Breslow and Belisle being the only outside adds to one of the worst bullpens in baseball?

[gunnarthor]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 4:37 PM, Mike Sixel said:

KC built a GREAT bullpen. How's that going here, with Breslow and Belisle being the only outside adds to one of the worst bullpens in baseball?

Man, I can't imagine how negative you're going to be when the Twins don't have the fifth best record in the AL.  

 

Give Levine some time, I think he'll be a pretty good GM and I'm fairly certain he knows what the team needs.

[howieramone2]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 2:41 AM, Deduno Abides said:

The 2018 rotation is one of the hottest topics underlying many discussions above 2017. "Trade Gordon or Santana"? How does it affect the 2018 rotation? "Bring up Romero to pitch in the bullpen"? How does it affect the 2018 rotation? "What position should Sano play"? "How to handle the trade deadline"? Same issue comes up.

As it is right now, perhaps only two pitchers look close to written in: Berrios at #2 and Mejia at #4. Perhaps three pitchers are the early leaders for #5, all of whom have great promise but also large question marks. Any of May, Gonsalves and Romero would probably be the best #5 the Twins have had since whenever, and even though each has large unknowns, the potential might be good enough that there will not be a need to give serious consideration to a Ryan Vogelsong or a Nick Tepesch (or a Pat Dean or a . . .) Let's just pause here and recognize how great an improvement that is.

The open spots are #1 and #3. If Ervin Santana is NOT traded, he should slot in at #3. He is still good, but he'll be 35 and he pitches like a late career Brad Radke more than a mid-career Justin Verlander. If the goal is to have a good shot to win the playoffs, as opposed to just making the playoffs, a true #1 power pitcher will be needed. Candidates will be available, depending on how much the team wants to pay or which minor league stars it's willing to trade. (Oh, wouldn't it be great if they had someone who could develop young pitchers like the Rays minor league teams do?) Even Madison Bumgarner may be available mid-season if the Giants don't turn around.

If the Twins do trade Santana, it may be easier to get a #3 this winter. Hopefully, they will also have a pitching coach like the Astros or Pirates, where they take relative scrap heap pitchers like Fiers, McHugh, Peacock, Morton, Burnett, Liriano, Nova, Happ and others and turn them into valuable starters on competitive teams. In fact, the pitching coach could be the most valuable first hire, because a great pitching coach who can expand the #3 candidate pool would reduce the need to pay full value - and take the financial risk of an injury - for a #3 pitcher that has fully maximized his skills and doesn't need assistance, enabling the team to spend on other positions, including a #1 starter and the bullpen.

Also, if the team trades Santana, and perhaps Kintzler or others, at this year's trade deadline, it is conceivable that a candidate for #3 starter is one of the pieces that comes back.

So here's how it lines up.

1. Open
2. Berrios
3. Santana or open
4. Mejia
5. May, Gonsalves or Romero

What do you think? Is that a reasonable beginning for a staff that could make some noise in the 2018 playoffs? What strategies could be used to fill the open slots, and when should those strategies be executed?

Good stuff!

 

The way I see it is: 

 

1/2 Berrios and Santana

3 Trade deadline pickup

4 Free agency signing

5. Gibson

6/7 Gonsalves/Mejia

In the wings: Romero, Jorge, Stewart

[Deduno Abides]

  On 7/13/2017 at 4:37 PM, Mike Sixel said:

KC built a GREAT bullpen. How's that going here, with Breslow and Belisle being the only outside adds to one of the worst bullpens in baseball?

This is exactly the point about having an OK rotation while relying on a bullpen. Even if you start with the top of the Twins' bullpen, in Kintzler and Rogers, neither is equivalent to the top three of K.C.'s 2015 bullpen of Herrera, Davis and Holland, plus K.C. had other great options, like Madson and Finnegan, while Morales and Hochevar had great years. It seems more likely that the Twins can compete in 2018 based on improving their rotation and adding a couple of relievers than it can by having an OK rotation while hoping for a bullpen like K.C. in 2015 or Cleveland in 2016. Also, don't forget that both of those teams had one big dog starter who is far better than anyone currently on the Twins, in Cueto and Kluber.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 4:45 PM, gunnarthor said:

Man, I can't imagine how negative you're going to be when the Twins don't have the fifth best record in the AL.  

 

Give Levine some time, I think he'll be a pretty good GM and I'm fairly certain he knows what the team needs.

 

I have said repeatedly it is too early to make any kind of final judgement, but to say (as many here have that) they needed to see the bullpen and SP in action before knowing additions needed to be made seems funny to me. Everyone in baseball and baseball fandom knew this pitching staff was bad and thin.

 

And, we can literally only judge them on what they do. so far, it's hard to love most of their moves, is that not fair?

[Twodogs]

  On 7/13/2017 at 3:17 PM, snap4birds said:

I'm a Cardinal fan, and I think Lance Lynn is somewhat underrated. Missed last season (Tommy John?), but otherwise is pretty consistent. Will give you 175-200 innings, average about 3 BB & 8 K's per 9. I think he's a solid #3 starter, so maybe not a great fit for the Twins, who seem to need a #1 or #2. Columnists who cover the Cardinals estimate he'll be asking for a Mike Leake size contract (roughly 6 years, 80 million), and they assume the Cardinals will give him a QO, so he'd cost a draft pick. He definitely adds good depth to a rotation, and I think the Cards will miss his dependability. But they feel they've got enough good, young pitchers to replace him.

I agree with you that Lynn would be a great acquisition for the Twins and usually guys have a better year two after TJ surgery than year one. But I think Lynn would be the top of what the Twins can get, I don't feel there is any way they get Yu Darvish or anyone like that. Lynn, I feel looks much better than a Rick Reed type. I think with

Lynn

Berrios

Santana

Mejia

They have a shot at being consistent at the front end of the rotation, I also see people looking at Pineda, but I think Lynn is better, but if they went and got Pineda also a la Nolasco and Hughes a few years back that wouldn't hurt the rotation at all. But for some reason Pineda looks like one of those guys with lots of stuff but just somehow gets in his own way, same as a guy like Ubaldo Jimenez, lots of stuff but seems to lose all of the time? But if they got two guys, and Lynn was one of them, they would be much better than they are now.

 

Actually looking a Pineda closer, I stand corrected, he does look pretty good, maybe just some bad luck last year?? But my next question is why would the Yankees let him go? They don't look like they have a very deep rotation either? I'd say the Yanks do what they can to resign him.

[Deduno Abides]

  On 7/13/2017 at 4:03 PM, Twodogs said:

I think the only reason he would seem to be lower cost is because he's not flashy and he is coming off an injury. If you look at his overall body of work, he looks really good to me. I don't think he's ever had a losing season in his career.

He's also lower cost because he's not as good as Kluber, Cueto, Bumgarner or Price, to name some of the big October pitchers from the last few years and one of the big deadline acquisitions, or other big buck pitchers. Lynn may be "worth the money," and he could be part of an October rotation, but he's not going to be the leader, which is what the Twins need.

 

He's also entering the decline phase of his career, so Falvine may not want to buy an extended commitment to Lynn.

[Deduno Abides]

  On 7/13/2017 at 2:53 PM, Cory Engelhardt said:

Here is my optimistic and probably not realistic stab at a 2018 rotation...

 

1) Yu Darvish

2) Berrios

3) Pitcher they've acquired in trade, I'll say Kevin Gausman or Dan Straily, but it could be anyone. They've used at least Gonsalves in the deal, along with other prospects.

4) Pitcher they have acquired for Ervin Santana. I'll guess Luis Ortiz of the Brewers.

5) Mejia

 

May and Romero and Derek Rodriguez and Kohl Stewart are all ready at AAA/bullpen to step in.

These are interesting ideas, Gausman in particular. Before diving into trades for someone like that, I hope Falvine lock into a pitching coach that they feel can maximize his value.

[Twodogs]

  On 7/13/2017 at 5:11 PM, Deduno Abides said:

He's also lower cost because he's not as good as Kluber, Cueto, Bumgarner or Price, to name some of the big October pitchers from the last few years and one of the big deadline acquisitions, or other big buck pitchers. Lynn may be "worth the money," and he could be part of an October rotation, but he's not going to be the leader, which is what the Twins need.

 

He's also entering the decline phase of his career, so Falvine may not want to buy an extended commitment to Lynn.

I hear your concern with a 4 year deal with Lynn, but that is the window everyone is saying the Twins have with the core 4 so if your looking beyond that with a FA pitcher then your looking beyond the supposed window?? Almost anyone who is good now fits the window in my opinion?

 

Plus my hope, and for the sake of the Twins, over the next year or two Berrios needs to take over as the Ace of the staff. If that happens and a guy like Lynn and Santana or Pineda become the #2, #3, 4 types they then have a real shot at accomplishing something.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 5:11 PM, Deduno Abides said:

He's also lower cost because he's not as good as Kluber, Cueto, Bumgarner or Price, to name some of the big October pitchers from the last few years and one of the big deadline acquisitions, or other big buck pitchers. Lynn may be "worth the money," and he could be part of an October rotation, but he's not going to be the leader, which is what the Twins need.

He's also entering the decline phase of his career, so Falvine may not want to buy an extended commitment to Lynn.

 

Almost every FA pitcher will be entering the decline phase during their FA contract. It's part of the price of getting really good FAs for more than 2-3 months in a trade.

[gunnarthor]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 5:05 PM, Mike Sixel said:

 

 

And, we can literally only judge them on what they do. so far, it's hard to love most of their moves, is that not fair?

Not sure. I'm ok with their non-moves on the offense + adding Castro. They seemed intent to let the young core play. They didn't trade Dozier so I suppose that's a strike but it doesn't seem like there was ever a really good offer. I loved the draft. I loved adding Pickler. I loved moving Sean Johnson to draft guru. I'm glad Bruno is gone and Rowson (sp) seems good.

 

Sure, the bullpen and rotation are bad but really there weren't necessarily better moves (at their prices) out there. Different ones, sure. But not automatically better. So, nah, I'm not overly bothered by Breslow or Belisle getting a contract. 

 

Now, if they don't make any affirmative changes and keep Molitor as manager next year at this time, I'll be upset.

[Rosterman]

2018 rotation:

 

Dillon Gee

Bartolo Colon

Nik Turley

Kyle Gibson

Jose Berrios

 

with backups

Trevor May

Phil Hughes

Tyler Duffey

 

I'm buying a season ticket package so I can have first dibs on playoff tickets.

 

 

Seriously, if a rebuild:

Jose Berrios

Trevor May

Stephen Gonsalves

Felix Jorge

Fernando Romero

and Mejias (May won't be able to pitch more than 100 innings)

 

 

with Slegers, Duffey, Stewart as the main bodies in the wings.

 

And I'll jsut continue to buy tickets from StubHub on-line for a fraction or retail.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 5:52 PM, gunnarthor said:

Not sure. I'm ok with their non-moves on the offense + adding Castro. They seemed intent to let the young core play. They didn't trade Dozier so I suppose that's a strike but it doesn't seem like there was ever a really good offer. I loved the draft. I loved adding Pickler. I loved moving Sean Johnson to draft guru. I'm glad Bruno is gone and Rowson (sp) seems good.

 

Sure, the bullpen and rotation are bad but really there weren't necessarily better moves (at their prices) out there. Different ones, sure. But not automatically better. So, nah, I'm not overly bothered by Breslow or Belisle getting a contract. 

 

Now, if they don't make any affirmative changes and keep Molitor as manager next year at this time, I'll be upset.

 

Fair. I hated the bullpen moves then, hate them even more now that all the young guys are either hurt, or not given a chance yet. I don't have enough data to figure out how to fix the SP, but it should not surprise anyone it was bad again this year.

[Deduno Abides]

  On 7/13/2017 at 5:26 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Almost every FA pitcher will be entering the decline phase during their FA contract. It's part of the price of getting really good FAs for more than 2-3 months in a trade.

True, but if you're going for it, you'd rather pay up to get the decline years of a 6 WAR pitcher than make a "value" purchase of a 3 WAR pitcher. Long-term deals with non-star pitchers leave you in the dead zone, where you have too much hope to do a rebuild and not enough budget to get the stars you need to win, unless you have a bunch of other cost-controlled stars.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:14 PM, Deduno Abides said:

True, but if you're going for it, you'd rather pay up to get the decline years of a 6 WAR pitcher than make a "value"'purchase of a 3 WAR pitcher. Long-term deals with non-star pitchers leave you in the dead zone, where you have too much hope to do a rebuild and not enough budget to get the stars you need to win, unless you have a bunch of other cost-controlled stars.

 

of course teams would rather have a 6 WAR player than a 3 WAR player......but the Twins aren't going to win the bidding for a 6 WAR FA.

[Deduno Abides]

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:15 PM, Mike Sixel said:

of course teams would rather have a 6 WAR player than a 3 WAR player......but the Twins aren't going to win the bidding for a 6 WAR FA.

See, now, that's a negative prediction based on the actions of people that are no longer in charge. Management has changed and player perceptions of the Twins may be changing. Colon isn't a big dog (well, he is, but not in the context we've been discussing), but he chose the Twins over the Mets. Let's give management some time before saying they can't or won't do something.

 

Also, next year, a three month rental may be all that's needed. Although the Twins don't currently have the prospects to match what the Red Sox traded for Sale or the Cubs traded for Quintana, next year they may have higher ranking prospects and a rental would cost less than either of those pitchers.

[Mr. Brooks]

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:25 PM, Deduno Abides said:

See, now, that's a negative prediction based on the actions of people that are no longer in charge. Management has changed and player perceptions of the Twins may be changing. Colon isn't a big dog (well, he is, but not in the context we've been discussing), but he chose the Twins over the Mets. Let's give management some time before saying they can't or won't do something.

 

Also, next year, a three month rental may be all that's needed. Although the Twins don't currently have the prospects to match what the Red Sox traded for Sale or the Cubs traded for Quintana, next year they may have higher ranking prospects and a rental would cost less than either of those pitchers.

The Pohlads still own the team.

It's fun to suggest or hope that they will suddenly change how they operate with money, but its just not realistic.

The Twins left a couple intriguing draft picks on the table because the Pohlads won't even pay a relatively small penalty for exceeding draft pool. No chance they pay what it would cost to buy a 6 WAR pitcher on the open market.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:25 PM, Deduno Abides said:

See, now, that's a negative prediction based on the actions of people that are no longer in charge. Management has changed and player perceptions of the Twins may be changing. Colon isn't a big dog (well, he is, but not in the context we've been discussing), but he chose the Twins over the Mets. Let's give management some time before saying they can't or won't do something.

Also, next year, a three month rental may be all that's needed. Although the Twins don't currently have the prospects to match what the Red Sox traded for Sale or the Cubs traded for Quintana, next year they may have higher ranking prospects and a rental would cost less than either of those pitchers.

 

Fair.

 

It's SUPER UNLIKELY the Twins will outspend the Yankees, TX, Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, TOR, STL, other Sox, Sea, and nearly every other tam in MLB for the best FA on the market. IMO, of course. It is certainly possible that they will outbid the teams that have tv deals worth 3-10x their deal for the best FA player on the market. It seems, um, unlikely though. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:30 PM, Mr. Brooks said:

The Pohlads still own the team.
It's fun to suggest or hope that they will suddenly change how they operate with money, but its just not realistic.
The Twins left a couple intriguing draft picks on the table because the Pohlads won't even pay a relatively small penalty for exceeding draft pool. No chance they pay what it would cost to buy a 6 WAR pitcher on the open market.

 

Are you certain that they didn't offer that money to said HS kids and it wasn't enough?

[Mr. Brooks]

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:42 PM, diehardtwinsfan said:

Are you certain that they didn't offer that money to said HS kids and it wasn't enough?

Of course I'm not certain.

But the Twins have never gone over, so I'm not sure they deserve the benefit of the doubt.

[Deduno Abides]

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:30 PM, Mr. Brooks said:

The Pohlads still own the team.

It's fun to suggest or hope that they will suddenly change how they operate with money, but its just not realistic.

The Twins left a couple intriguing draft picks on the table because the Pohlads won't even pay a relatively small penalty for exceeding draft pool. No chance they pay what it would cost to buy a 6 WAR pitcher on the open market.

Yes, spending will depend on what the Pohlads consider to be a successful season. Every year, they asked Ryan what he thought should be spent and he spent what he thought was needed - to make the playoffs. Time will tell whether that continues with Falvine. People may not remember, but at one time Kirby Puckett was the highest paid player in baseball - when a Pohlad owned the team.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:47 PM, Deduno Abides said:

Yes, spending will depend on what the Pohlads consider to be a successful season. Every year, they asked Ryan what he thought should be spent and he spent what he thought was needed - to make the playoffs. Time will tell whether that continues with Falvine. People may not remember, but at one time Kirby Puckett was the highest paid player in baseball - when a Pohlad owned the team.

 

but he wasn't a FA, was he?

 

The team said, clearly, they built TF so they could keep the guys they want. Not to buy big time FAs.

 

But we'll see, maybe they will outbid all the other teams for the best FA types going forward. It certainly would be a massive change.

[Deduno Abides]

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:39 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Fair.

 

It's SUPER UNLIKELY the Twins will outspend the Yankees, TX, Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, TOR, STL, other Sox, Sea, and nearly every other tam in MLB for the best FA on the market. IMO, of course. It is certainly possible that they will outbid the teams that have tv deals worth 3-10x their deal for the best FA player on the market. It seems, um, unlikely though.

 

It's not certain that the Twins need to sign a David Price contract to win. A Johnny Cueto trade may be all that is needed, if Berrios keeps getting better and the team gets a strong #3. That said, if you go back in time by two years and replace "Twins" with "Diamondbacks," you'd understand the thoughts of their fans before they got Greinke.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:51 PM, Deduno Abides said:

It's not certain that the Twins need to sign a David Price contract to win. A Johnny Cueto trade may be all that is needed, if Berrios keeps getting better and the team gets a strong #3. That said, if you go back in time by two years and replace "Twins" with "Diamondbacks," you'd understand the thoughts of their fans before they got Greinke.

 

I'm sorry, I thought we were clearly discussing if they would sign a 6 WAR player. Was that not the discussion?

[Mr. Brooks]

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:47 PM, Deduno Abides said:

Yes, spending will depend on what the Pohlads consider to be a successful season. Every year, they asked Ryan what he thought should be spent and he spent what he thought was needed - to make the playoffs. Time will tell whether that continues with Falvine. People may not remember, but at one time Kirby Puckett was the highest paid player in baseball - when a Pohlad owned the team.

That's Ryan being a good company man. The Pohlads have always had a budget, 50% of revenue I believe has been reported several times.

GM's don't refuse to spend more money. Spending more is no guarantee but it's clearly an advantage.

No GM is going to say, "thanks for the offer boss, but I like a good challenge! I'm going to see if I can build a winner for less!"

If he did refuse more payroll, then he's stupid. And, i have a lot of issues with Ryan, but I don't believe for a second he's ever been stupid in his life.

[Deduno Abides]

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:53 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I'm sorry, I thought we were clearly discussing if they would sign a 6 WAR player. Was that not the discussion?

The discussion is how to get a #1. I'm concerned that this thread is changing into yet another "Pohlads are cheap" discussion.

[yarnivek1972]

 

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:53 PM, Mr. Brooks said:

That's Ryan being a good company man. The Pohlads have always had a budget, 50% of revenue I believe has been reported several times.
GM's don't refuse to spend more money. Spending more is no guarantee but it's clearly an advantage.
No GM is going to say, "thanks for the offer boss, but I like a good challenge! I'm going to see if I can build a winner for less!"
If he did refuse more payroll, then he's stupid. And, i have a lot of issues with Ryan, but I don't believe for a second he's ever been stupid in his life.

Well, he did sign RonDL White.

 

And then signed him AGAIN the next year.  What's the saying?  Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...

[mikelink45]

Let's assume that we do not have the fire power to pull off a trade.  Then the effort should be to push Gonsalves, Romero and even Sleger's into the fray as they have with Turley and Jorge.  Get their feet wet, test them.  See what we have.  Santiago and Gibson are known and what we know is not good enough so lets prepare to move on.  Our trade chips are too weak for a big splash and we have to think strategically about who will be at SS and 2B while thinking of who will be the missing two or three pitchers in the rotation.  We need the defense to support pitchers that are #2 - #4 in talent and a bullpen to take over the end of the game. 

 

Straily does not interest me because we have a history of investing in career years only to see us paying too much for regression, Quintana is gone and has set the trade bar too high.  

 

Then there is May.  How many years have I read about him, his talent, and his ability, but he reminds me of Pressly - lots of talent, but tough to get it to deliver the results  He is now 27, will be 28 when he returns and will need to get back in shape as he starts to move through what should be his prime years, but he is 13 - 17 (Sorry Keith Law, but I do like wins) with a 5.14 ERA in 102 games over 3 years and that does not give me confidence.  He and Meyer came in together with so much promise, but neither has made me a big league believer.

[Mr. Brooks]

  On 7/13/2017 at 8:58 PM, Deduno Abides said:

The discussion is how to get a #1. I'm concerned that this thread is changing into yet another "Pohlads are cheap" discussion.

Wow you are blowing my mind Deduno.

Mike: Here is how we can try to get a 3 WAR pitcher.

You: I'd rather try to get a 6 WAR pitcher.

Mike: We all would, but Twins won't pay for a 6 WAR pitcher.

You: You are unfairly ripping the Twins for being cheap.

Mike: (explains why it's really unlikely they'd pay for a 6 WAR pitcher)

You: I never said it had to be a 6 WAR pitcher, it could be a 3 WAR pitcher (what Mike said to begin with).

 

Really, wow, that's impressive Deduno.