2018 Rotation

[Mike Sixel]

The more I think about this, the more I'd rather get 3 number 3s, and a great bullpen, than 1 number 1 and 2 number 5s. I just think it is more realistic in approach.

 

Not that that is easy either.....

[Twodogs]

2018 rotation:

 

Dillon Gee

Bartolo Colon

Nik Turley

Kyle Gibson

Jose Berrios

 

with backups

Trevor May

Phil Hughes

Tyler Duffey

 

I'm buying a season ticket package so I can have first dibs on playoff tickets.

 

 

Seriously, if a rebuild:

Jose Berrios

Trevor May

Stephen Gonsalves

Felix Jorge

Fernando Romero

and Mejias (May won't be able to pitch more than 100 innings)

 

 

with Slegers, Duffey, Stewart as the main bodies in the wings.

 

And I'll jsut continue to buy tickets from StubHub on-line for a fraction or retail.

If either of those are the Twins rotation next year they will win 58 games. They need to add something.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If May gives 90 good innings in the back half of the year, that will be satisfactory for a 5th starter. Look at 2006, which is perhaps the best of the Gardy playoff teams, where Boof Bonser and Scott Baker averaged around 90!mediocre innings each as the #5 starter. Between May, Romero and Gonsalves, hopefully the team can patch #5 together at least that well. The big issue is what they do about #1 and #3. Santana as #1 will not be a competitive playoff team, and there may be team-development reasons to trade Santana now (sell high) and replace him with a #3 starter.

i would hope that the plan is to put enough front end pitching in place to put Mejia back to #5 and May, Romero, Gonsalves, Jorge go to AAA or the bullpen and be starters 6,7,8.

[Deduno Abides]

Wow you are blowing my mind Deduno.

Mike: Here is how we can try to get a 3 WAR pitcher.

You: I'd rather try to get a 6 WAR pitcher.

Mike: We all would, but Twins won't pay for a 6 WAR pitcher.

You: You are unfairly ripping the Twins for being cheap.

Mike: (explains why it's really unlikely they'd pay for a 6 WAR pitcher)

You: I never said it had to be a 6 WAR pitcher, it could be a 3 WAR pitcher (what Mike said to begin with).

Really, wow, that's impressive Deduno.

Sorry Brooks, I'm missing where I said that a 3 is all that is needed, especially in the comment you quoted, which says "The discussion is how to get a #1."

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Of course I'm not certain.
But the Twins have never gone over, so I'm not sure they deserve the benefit of the doubt.

 

They may not deserve it, but there's a rather distinct difference between making up accusations out of thin air and not giving them the benefit of the doubt.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It's not certain that the Twins need to sign a David Price contract to win. A Johnny Cueto trade may be all that is needed, if Berrios keeps getting better and the team gets a strong #3. That said, if you go back in time by two years and replace "Twins" with "Diamondbacks," you'd understand the thoughts of their fans before they got Greinke.

 

Truthfully, this is what I don't get.

 

Pitching is a big black hole on this team, and you're right that you might get quite a bit of positive progression from Berrios and Mejia... and let's go further and pretend that May looks hot and that Santana doesn't regress.  That's still a big gaping hole at the 5 spot....  Yeah, a Cueto trade would be all that's needed, but a Price deal WOULD be better. I think if you go into FA, you don't get the mediocre ones, you get the good ones. That's a pretty big swing in WAR or whatever other metric you prefer.

 

Yes, I know the Pohlads have a reputation for being cheap, but you get into the situation that we are in right now because you go out and get less than the best and when things go wrong (which with pitching they usually do... especially with our depth), you're far better off spending the money to get good talent.

[gman]

The Twins and their pitching have been so bad for so long, realistically expecting anyone to come in and build a playoff pitching staff in half a year or even 1 year is really hoping for miracles. I think 2018 is more of a continued pitching tryout camp from this year without expectations of making the playoffs. One way to quickly improve the rotation is to have a really good bullpen to bail them out. If we can get over the injuries (maybe a big if), a top notch bullpen is not that far away. But that would also rely heavily on rookies.

 

I expect some of Berrios, Mejia, May, Romero, Gonsalves, Jorge and Slegers with some midlevel veteran starter signed in the offseason.

 

[Mr. Brooks]

They may not deserve it, but there's a rather distinct difference between making up accusations out of thin air and not giving them the benefit of the doubt.

My accusation is far from out of thin air.

The team has owners with a reputation for being thrifty and have never gone over their pool. It's a common sense assumption.

[Deduno Abides]

Truthfully, this is what I don't get.

 

Pitching is a big black hole on this team, and you're right that you might get quite a bit of positive progression from Berrios and Mejia... and let's go further and pretend that May looks hot and that Santana doesn't regress. That's still a big gaping hole at the 5 spot.... Yeah, a Cueto trade would be all that's needed, but a Price deal WOULD be better. I think if you go into FA, you don't get the mediocre ones, you get the good ones. That's a pretty big swing in WAR or whatever other metric you prefer.

 

Yes, I know the Pohlads have a reputation for being cheap, but you get into the situation that we are in right now because you go out and get less than the best and when things go wrong (which with pitching they usually do... especially with our depth), you're far better off spending the money to get good talent.

I agree with you. To clarify, the team needs a #1 and a #3. If they don't want to spend for a #1, a mid-season rental of a #1 might work to win in the playoffs. Examples include past trades for Randy Johnson (Astros), CC Sabathia (Brewers) and Johnny Cueto (Royals).

 

In all scenarios, the team will need to get a #1 and, if they trade Santana this summer, a #3. Spending big on a #3, as some comments suggested, will make it harder to spend on a #1. I would prefer to throw bigger money at a #1 and find a more creative solution for #3, as the Pirates, Astros and other teams have done, instead of paying full price for an established #3.

 

The team will also need a #4 or #5, depending on how people slot Mejia. I believe May, Gonsalves and Romero will be good candidates for this role. Other posters do not, for reasons of injury or inexperience.

 

There is no way this team will be successful, however, if it just has a collection of #3s. Among other pitching needs, it needs a true #1, and nobody in the organization today qualifies.

 

P.S. I'm tired of talking about whether the Pohlads are cheap or unwilling to spend. The arguments for and against this hypothesis, many but not all of which on both sides have merit, have been well-established and there do not seem to be any new ones. At best, or worst, depending on your perspective, time will tell if new management results in new ideas about spending.

[Major League Ready]

 

See, now, that's a negative prediction based on the actions of people that are no longer in charge. Management has changed and player perceptions of the Twins may be changing. Colon isn't a big dog (well, he is, but not in the context we've been discussing), but he chose the Twins over the Mets. Let's give management some time before saying they can't or won't do something.

Also, next year, a three month rental may be all that's needed. Although the Twins don't currently have the prospects to match what the Red Sox traded for Sale or the Cubs traded for Quintana, next year they may have higher ranking prospects and a rental would cost less than either of those pitchers.

 

It has more to do with economics than who's in charge.  Name the Ace pitchers have been acquired in free agency in the last 20 years by teams outside the top 10 in revenue?   I don't think you can come up with 3 in the past 20 years that posters here would agree were an "ace".  I am not sure if you can come up with one.  Sanchez is the only one I can think of off the top of my head but there are probably better examples I am not remembering.  This is not complicated.  There are teams with 50M, 100M, even 200M more in revenue.  To expect them to outbid those teams is simply misguided enthusiasm.  While we are all guilty of misguided enthusiasm as fans but I am still surprised that this simple fact is ignored. 

 

This team will never be a true contender until the farm system produces pitching adequate to contend.  The bullpen arms appear to be on the verge.  We really needed to get a top flight SP prospect for Dozier and unfortunately the market did not provide that opportunity.  What I really like about Falvey and Lavine is they have said they will take an approach that can build a long-term winner.  Hopefully, we can sell high on ES.  We obviously can acquire a FA of his caliber in FA.  If that FA is 28-30 that move alone would be much better long-term.  If they can get a prospect that becomes an equivalent SP, we are waaaaay better off over the next decade.  The cost to accelerate contention is generally quite high.

 

The 2018 rotation would be Berrios / FA acquisition / Mejia and 2 spots filled between May / Gonsalves / Romero / Gibson and the prospect acquired for Santana.  There are also a number of bullpen arms that should be ready in 2018.  Plus, there is still a chance we can get something for Dozier & Kintzler.  I would trade Rosario if possible.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

My accusation is far from out of thin air.
The team has owners with a reputation for being thrifty and have never gone over their pool. It's a common sense assumption.

 

and you have zero proof of what you are claiming. By your own admission, It's an assumption, and you only have history from a previous front office as your proof. It's an assumption that you are parroting about as fact.... And that IS a problem, and it is not appropriate for this environment.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I agree with you. To clarify, the team needs a #1 and a #3. If they don't want to spend for a #1, a mid-season rental of a #1 might work to win in the playoffs. Examples include past trades for Randy Johnson (Astros), CC Sabathia (Brewers) and Johnny Cueto (Royals).

In all scenarios, the team will need to get a #1 and, if they trade Santana this summer, a #3. Spending big on a #3, as some comments suggested, will make it harder to spend on a #1. I would prefer to throw bigger money at a #1 and find a more creative solution for #3, as the Pirates, Astros and other teams have done, instead of paying full price for an established #3.

The team will also need a #4 or #5, depending on how people slot Mejia. I believe May, Gonsalves and Romero will be good candidates for this role. Other posters do not, for reasons of injury or inexperience.

There is no way this team will be successful, however, if it just has a collection of #3s. Among other pitching needs, it needs a true #1, and nobody in the organization today qualifies.

P.S. I'm tired of talking about whether the Pohlads are cheap or unwilling to spend. The arguments for and against this hypothesis, many but not all of which on both sides have merit, have been well-established and there do not seem to be any new ones. At best, or worst, depending on your perspective, time will tell if new management results in new ideas about spending.

 

I don't agree with the idea that we need a 1,2,3,4, and 5   We need the 5 best pitchers we can get. I get the need to follow a budget, but I do think the Twins have enough room to go big and get one of the best options out there.

 

And yes, I'm tired of the cheap arguments too, as they are well hashed out (note it isn't my intent to discuss that).  My point is simply that I don't see any way for the Twins to acquire talent without going to FA, and if you're going to do it, I'm of the opinion they go out and get the best option (in terms of results and probability of maximizing the return on said contract).  Perhaps Falvine can prove me wrong and find some ways to get talent without FA, but as noted, with 4 years left on the hitting core, they need pitching now.

[laloesch]

Let not your heart be troubled Big Sexy (Colon) is coming to the rescue in the second half!  What a nickname huh?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It has more to do with economics than who's in charge.  Name the Ace pitchers have been acquired in free agency in the last 20 years by teams outside the top 10 in revenue?   I don't think you can come up with 3 in the past 20 years that posters here would agree were an "ace".  I am not sure if you can come up with one.  Sanchez is the only one I can think of off the top of my head but there are probably better examples I am not remembering.  This is not complicated.  There are teams with 50M, 100M, even 200M more in revenue.  To expect them to outbid those teams is simply misguided enthusiasm.  While we are all guilty of misguided enthusiasm as fans but I am still surprised that this simple fact is ignored. 

Here are some ace FA signings and the Forbes ranks for those teams in revenue

 

Greinke, Diamondbacks, 2016 (~24th, behind the Twins)

Scherzer, Nationals, 2014 (13th, within 10% or ~$23 mil  of the Twins in revenue) -- largest FA SP contract in history at the time

 

Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks, 1999 (11th 2000)

 

Clemens, Blue Jays, 1997 (17th in 1998)

 

They predate Forbes' lists, but in 1993 the Royals signed Cone and the Astros signed Drabek...

[Mike Sixel]

5 in 20 years. That seems pretty rare.

[Deduno Abides]

It has more to do with economics than who's in charge.  Name the Ace pitchers have been acquired in free agency in the last 20 years by teams outside the top 10 in revenue?   I don't think you can come up with 3 in the past 20 years that posters here would agree were an "ace".  I am not sure if you can come up with one.  Sanchez is the only one I can think of off the top of my head but there are probably better examples I am not remembering.  This is not complicated.  There are teams with 50M, 100M, even 200M more in revenue.  To expect them to outbid those teams is simply misguided enthusiasm.  While we are all guilty of misguided enthusiasm as fans but I am still surprised that this simple fact is ignored. 

Per Forbes, Twins 2016 revenue was $249M, Diamondbacks revenue was $253M. Diamondbacks signed Greinke. Blue Jays are well out of the Top 10, but signed FAs and were well in on Price. Rangers are #11, Mariners are #14, Tigers are #18 - all of them have signed expensive FAs, including pitchers. (Twins are #22.) When the Nationals signed Scherzer, they had lower revenue, but expectations of growth due to a new TV contract. Twins have a great stadium, which will be a lot more filled if they have a strong team, raising their revenue. The biggest impact on the teams would be to improve the top of the rotation. That is also "economics."

 

Now, that doesn't mean that they should sign a FA. FAs are risky and there are other ways to get great pitchers. Previous management thought it was better to sign a bunch of mid-tier pitchers, perhaps because it felt quantity was needed more than quality. Now that Berrios is establishing himself, Mejia looks promising, and May, Gonsalves and Romero are showing potential, as well as having the value of Santana either as a member of the staff or as a trade chip, it will be good to see what the new management does. They very well may decide to reallocate spending to quality instead of quantity. However, I don't understand the choruses of "won't" and "can't."

[kab21]

I don't think that playoff teams are Aces or bust. They can't have Pavano (mentioned earlier) type number 2's (lucky and hittable) but I would take a rotation of Lynn, Berrios, Gray (or different trade target) and Ervin in the playoffs. None of them are aces but each (less so Ervin) can be a legit #2.

 

And the Twins do have the pieces to pull off a big trade but Gordon has to stop being untouchable unless the pitcher is a top shelf ace w/o question marks.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

5 in 20 years. That seems pretty rare.

To be fair, it's a pretty small sample of total ace FA signings.  From this list of the top 78 most lucrative MLB contracts, only 14 have been FA contracts for SP -- and this dates as far back as Kevin Brown, 1999, and as low as the recent Samardzija and Zimmermann deals, which really weren't "aces" and weren't really at prohibitive amounts for most teams:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

 

There was a particular lull in the mid-2000's, it seems, as most of the best SP of that era were old (i.e. Clemens) or young (pre-FA).  Even the big market teams weren't signing many FA aces during those years.  I think that's what made Sabathia so special in 2009.

 

And there's nothing particularly magic about the "top 10" in revenue, the next ~8 teams seem to be within 10% of the #10 team, and they seem to rise and fall in that range partially based on on-field success.  "Bottom 3" might be more meaningful?  Florida, Tampa, and Oakland seem to be the only clubs who have no hope right now of ascending to the 10-15 range.

[Mike Sixel]

 

To be fair, it's a pretty small sample of total ace FA signings.  From this list of the top 78 most lucrative MLB contracts, only 14 have been FA contracts for SP -- and this dates as far back as Kevin Brown, 1999, and as low as the recent Samardzija and Zimmermann deals, which really weren't "aces" and weren't really at prohibitive amounts for most teams:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

 

There was a particular lull in the mid-2000's, it seems, as most of the best SP of that era were old (i.e. Clemens) or young (pre-FA).  Even the big market teams weren't signing many FA aces during those years.  I think that's what made Sabathia so special in 2009.

 

And there's nothing particularly magic about the "top 10" in revenue, the next ~8 teams seem to be within 10% of the #10 team, and they seem to rise and fall in that range partially based on on-field success.  "Bottom 3" might be more meaningful?  Florida, Tampa, and Oakland seem to be the only clubs who have no hope right now of ascending to the 10-15 range.

 

that's also part of the problem of "go sign an ACE"....there aren't usually any available. It just isn't easy to get one in FA.

[Mike Sixel]

Pineda needs TJ, so he's not a FA next year you want, but maybe the yankees want ESan now?

[laloesch]

 

(Assuming no trades)

 

1. Santana

2. Berrios

3. May

4. Mejia

5. Gonsalves

 

 

I like it.  If May comes back successfully could be the best rotation this team has had in YEARS!  

[kab21]

 

that's also part of the problem of "go sign an ACE"....there aren't usually any available. It just isn't easy to get one in FA.

Does that mean it isn't impossible to sign a Lance Lynn level pitcher (a very good 2/3) then? That seems to be what most people are talking about.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Does that mean it isn't impossible to sign a Lance Lynn level pitcher (a very good 2/3) then? That seems to be what most people are talking about.

 

I think a 2/3 is a good idea. I've stated that on here a couple of times. It should be possible, for this team. 

[DocBauer]

It us my hope, and my belief, that the absolute best way to proceed is to make that one big FA splash for a SP this off season. We can talk all we want to about signing someone that qualifies as a true ACE on the market, but they are rare and very, very expensive. But financially, this team could afford a really nice, quality #2 type for $18-20M per let's say. The team is rather under budget compared to previous seasons, as well as the ML average. Further, there is payroll coming off the books from Perkins and Santiago. After 2018, Mauer comes off the books. After 2019, Hughes and Santana are then as well. That is enough to make the splash and a couple more signings of value without compromising the ability to keep the roster intact.

 

Further, you keep your prospects, for the time being, for promotion, depth, competition and future trade value for 2019 and beyond. You may or may not have an ACE in the fold, but you put together a quality rotation, continue to work on the pen, and with this young core of position players you have a real contender.

 

2018 rotation:

 

FA

Berrios

Santana

Mejia

 

Who is the 5th? I could take a flier on someone needing a change of scenery, or stick with Gibson for one more season, probably at similar cost, assuming a decent second half. I could get May back. The pen could be strong enough to audition Duffey. And at some point, if not immediately, I've got Gonsalves, Romero and Jorge all getting ready for shots. And I still have trade options available at this point if necessary.

[Mr. Brooks]

and you have zero proof of what you are claiming. By your own admission, It's an assumption, and you only have history from a previous front office as your proof. It's an assumption that you are parroting about as fact.... And that IS a problem, and it is not appropriate for this environment.

I didn't intend to state it as fact.

Are we now required to put a disclaimer in every post stating its opinion and not fact? This is a message board for posting opinions of the team.

I'm guessing you wouldn't be attacking me if my assumption about the team had been positive instead of negative.

If I call out every positive assumption posted on the site like you did to me will that be tolerated?

Of course not. I guess assumptions are okay when they paint the team in a positive light.

 

Anyway. To amend my statement.

 

As far as I can tell, ownership continues to refuse to go over pool in the draft, despite a new FO.

I do not work with the Pohlads or the FO. The above is my opinion only and not meant to be taken as factual.

[Vanimal46]

Pictured: Kyle Gibson's leash over the last 4 years 

 

Let's end this madness. He needs to go, even if he costs $3-4 MM to re-sign. 
 

[Major League Ready]

 

Here are some ace FA signings and the Forbes ranks for those teams in revenue

 

Greinke, Diamondbacks, 2016 (~24th, behind the Twins)

Scherzer, Nationals, 2014 (13th, within 10% or ~$23 mil  of the Twins in revenue) -- largest FA SP contract in history at the time

 

Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks, 1999 (11th 2000)

 

Clemens, Blue Jays, 1997 (17th in 1998)

 

They predate Forbes' lists, but in 1993 the Royals signed Cone and the Astros signed Drabek...

Arizona had just signed a monster TV contract.  You are not trying to be realistic if you are going to use that as a comparison.  If the Twins sign a billion dollar TV contract, our expectations should change.

 

Johnson was 35 and Clemens 34.  Decent examples but they are not representative of the types of players (Ace in their prime) being discussed here.  I doubt the participants here would be thrilled with a 35 y/o free agent regardless of who it might be. 

 

Scherzer is the best example but you are comparing revenue when the Twins revenue peak.  Average revenue for the past decade significantly favors the Nationals.  This is still a reasonable example but the revenue advantage and the fact the team was in the middle of their window of opportunity decreases the rigor of Scherzer in terms of comparisons to the Twins.   

 

Basically, there is one fairly decent example (Scherzer) in the past 20 years that could be called an Ace SP in their prime signed by by a team with a similar revenue profile.  Can we agree the type of free agent signing is a rarity among teams with the Twins revenue profile?

[Old Twins Cap]

Pineda just came off the Board for the Yankees with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. Which means, Yankees really want Santana bad.

 

Wonder what they got in their stable that might allow the Twins to trade high, albeit, giving up on the season. I wasn't in favor of moving Santana before, but if you can get in the Yankees living room and grab a couple high end shiny prospects, I would do it in a heartbeat.

 

And, old Erv is at the top of what will be a pretty consistent decline at this point.

[Mr. Brooks]

Alberto Abreu is a Yankees prospect I'd want thrown into any deal.

[Suicide Skweez]

If I'm the FO and the Yankees are asking for Santana, I demand Justus Sheffield and Chance Adams in return. If they bite, done deal and its an easy decision. If not, I throw in Kohl Stewart as a bit of a sweetener and then hopefully they bite.

 

You're talking a realistic deal that would put two young SOLID starters in our rotation within the next calendar year.

Then you have a young rotation consisting of Berrios, Adams, likely 1 vet, and some combo of Sheffield, Mejia, Romero, and Gonsalves rounding out the final two.