Article: Deadline Primer: Should Nick Gordon Be On The Table?

[Vanimal46]

 

He hasn't been nearly as good this year and he's all of a sudden developed an issue with walks when his success has always been based almost exclusively on good control.

 

Also, he's all but a two-pitch pitcher now as he rarely uses his change-up.

 

I mean if you can get him based on the value of his numbers this year, sure, I'd be interested. I doubt the White Sox would trade him under that pretense though. Also there's the issue of helping the White Sox reload. Yuck.

 

From what I'm seeing on FanGraphs, he's using his change just as much as he did last year, and using his curveball more this year. Last year as the "2 pitch pitcher" he did pretty well earning 4.8 fWAR. 

 

Can't explain the uptick in walks this year... Maybe it's injury, maybe it's something else. 

If the underlying motivation is not helping the White Sox reload, okay. I still think Quintana is a damn good pitcher, and would be a great target for the Twins. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't think that we get enough with Gordon as the centerpiece of a trade to make it worthwhile. I'd prefer that we wait until the offseason and break the bank for a #1 or #2 quality starter.

 

break the bank, in FA?

 

1. there aren't many great FA available.

2. you have to outbid the other teams for those few pitchers (if any)

 

 

[Don Walcott]

break the bank, in FA?

 

1. there aren't many great FA available.

2. you have to outbid the other teams for those few pitchers (if any)

Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, David Price (if he opts out), Johnny Cueto (if he opts out), Michael Pineda, Chris Tillman, Marco Estrada, Alex Cobb. Lance Lynn. Rather than trade away assets in the organization, I'd like to see the owners splash some cash to accumulate assets.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, David Price (if he opts out), Johnny Cueto (if he opts out), Michael Pineda, Chris Tillman, Marco Estrada, Alex Cobb. Lance Lynn. Rather than trade away assets in the organization, I'd like to see the owners splash some cash to accumulate assets.

 

Kershaw can opt out too. 

 

There are plenty of decent options in FA this offseason, and I really hope the Twins go all in on at least one big SP. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd like to think the new front office has their teams looking for the undervalued guys. I'd rather look for the upside guys you can buy low on. Get our own Arrieta, or Straily or Scherzer (2009) or Kulber or Robbie Ray.

 

Except for the elite arms, trading for good-not-great pitchers rarely seems to payoff for the buyers. I don't think many of these guys available are elite.

 

I'd like to dream on that too. So far, their AAA scouting skills and RP FA signing skills seem suspect at best.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, David Price (if he opts out), Johnny Cueto (if he opts out), Michael Pineda, Chris Tillman, Marco Estrada, Alex Cobb. Lance Lynn. Rather than trade away assets in the organization, I'd like to see the owners splash some cash to accumulate assets.

 

Darvish will stay in TX, as they are trying to entice Otani, from what I read.

Arrieta has been pretty "meh" this year, he has 1-2 great years, and a bunch of "meh" years. But, he'll cost like a top end guy, imo. 

Price, hard to see how he opts out, given his health this year, but it's possible.

Cueto, hmmmm, he's a tough one. If he does opt out, it's because he's been very good and healthy. If so, he's going to cost the most of any player on this list.

 

I'm not convinced those others are number 1/2 types at all.

[Willihammer]

The other name to keep in mind is Julio Teheran. Declining velo, declining swinging strike rates + cheap contract should make him the top target for the Twins in any deadline trade I would think.

[jimmer]

Quintana is like the poster-child in any "Ace" or "Not Ace" discussion, right? He is undoubtedly very good, but in almost any playoff series he will be the underdog to the other team's #1 starter. He has been durable and effective, but don't have amazing stuff. I personally consider him an "Ace", but I have a big tent when it comes to defining who is or isn't an Ace. I respect those who disagree.

in regards to whether or not he'd be an underdog in almost any playoff series I wonder. I guess it would depend on who else made the playoffs. Not all of the top pitchers make the playoffs and he has been top 8 ALSP for the previous 3 seasons.

 

In an event, even here, I read he is a 'solid #3' on a championship team. Guy has been a top 8 AL SP for awhile and yet solid #3? How stacked IS that team?

[Vanimal46]

 

The other name to keep in mind is Julio Teheran. Declining velo, declining swinging strike rates + cheap contract should make him the top target for the Twins in any deadline trade I would think.

 

I'd like this too. It's too bad they're loaded at MI with Swanson, Albies, and Maitan

[FargoFanMan]

I would trade Prospects for established MLB players any day of the week. The prospects almost never become what you want them to be and if we get a couple years of solid pitching that's a win in my book whom ever is on the table. I would keep Gonsalves and maybe Stewart as it's nice to slip those guys in at the back end of a future rotation. As for the rest of them. Sell em all!!! The goal is to win in the next 4-5 years and waiting on prospects is a futile effort.

[Willihammer]

 

I'd like this too. It's too bad they're loaded at MI with Swanson, Albies, and Maitan

3 team trade?

[Tom Froemming]

The thing to keep in mind about Jose Quintana is these are his future salaries:

18: $8.85M

19: $10.5M

20: $11.5M

 

A pitcher of his caliber at those prices is an incredible deal. Archer is also on a team-friendly deal. He's only owed $34M over the next four seasons. Stroman and Gray will be going through arbitration, so they have less cost certainty, though they'll probably still be relatively cheap in the grand scheme of things.

 

Why would any of these teams trade these guys unless they were absolutely blown away? The White Sox should be shooting for the moon. What motivation do they have to get rid of Quintana?

[jimmer]

This team has always looked for undervalued guys. Strategy is hardly new to us. Players having off years making them cheaper to get in the hopes they bounce back. This is SOP. They arent going to spend what it takes to get an ace on the open market.

[nicksaviking]

 

From what I'm seeing on FanGraphs, he's using his change just as much as he did last year, and using his curveball more this year. Last year as the "2 pitch pitcher" he did pretty well earning 4.8 fWAR. 

 

Can't explain the uptick in walks this year... Maybe it's injury, maybe it's something else. 

If the underlying motivation is not helping the White Sox reload, okay. I still think Quintana is a damn good pitcher, and would be a great target for the Twins. 

 

I wasn't a fan of Quintana last year either when his name was mentioned as a trade target for teams. I've never been a believer. Perhaps it was always the fact that he was a scrap heap pick up who had been DFA'd by two different teams despite the fact that the teams had never even needed to use an option on him. These kind of guys always seemed to be a flash in the pan who's bubble soon burst.

 

I always thought he was a smoke-and-mirrors lefty though I'll readily admit that for the previous five years my lack of faith was in no way supported by his results. He clearly proved me wrong every year.

 

But he's still a 2 1/2 pitch pitcher with sudden control issues. I'll never trust him.

 

I don't know what's up with him this year, but I'd guess the sudden loss of curve in his curveball isn't helping:

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=500779&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=pfx_z&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=07/12/2017

[Otto von Ballpark]

Gonsalves only has 23 AA starts. I'd hardly call that repeating, just because some came last year and some came this year.

Sorry, didn't mean it in a remedial sense. Meant that he's seen upper minors action last season and this season, so his relatively low regard among evaluators isn't due to lack of exposure.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'd like to dream on that too. So far, their AAA scouting skills and RP FA signing skills seem suspect at best.....

 

As far as the AAA scouting skills, is there someone you're referring to? Or do you just mean the Breslow/Rucinsky/Tepesch/Wilk stuff?

 

Yeah, none of that was impressive. I'm not sure it was supposed to be though; I sure hope not. I always said I'll give them the first year free to evaluate. After that I'm going to expect to be wowed by their moves because I'm not settling for half measures made to desperately try for a .500 record and one-and-done playoff appearances.

[markos]

 

Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, David Price (if he opts out), Johnny Cueto (if he opts out), Michael Pineda, Chris Tillman, Marco Estrada, Alex Cobb. Lance Lynn. Rather than trade away assets in the organization, I'd like to see the owners splash some cash to accumulate assets.

Price's opt-out is after the 2018 season.

[Willihammer]

 

I wasn't a fan of Quintana last year either when his name was mentioned as a trade target for teams. I've never been a believer. Perhaps it was always the fact that he was a scrap heap pick up who had been DFA'd by two different teams despite the fact that the teams had never even needed to use an option on him. These kind of guys always seemed to be a flash in the pan who's bubble soon burst.

 

I always thought he was a smoke-and-mirrors lefty though I'll readily admit that for the previous five years my lack of faith was in no way supported by his results. He clearly proved me wrong every year.

 

But he's still a 2 1/2 pitch pitcher with sudden control issues. I'll never trust him.

 

I don't know what's up with him this year, but I'd guess the sudden loss of curve in his curveball isn't helping:

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=500779&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=pfx_z&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=07/12/2017

According to that, his curve has gotten a bit more slurvy but it hasn't changed that much. Opponents are only slugging .330 off it.

 

But they're hammering his sinker. Maybe a victim of the uppercut evolution?

 

He's also abandoned the cutter for some reason. Wonder why.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=500779&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=slg&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=07/12/2017

[nicksaviking]

 

The other name to keep in mind is Julio Teheran. Declining velo, declining swinging strike rates + cheap contract should make him the top target for the Twins in any deadline trade I would think.

 

Ha, it is really difficult to determine if this is a tongue-in-cheek pot-shot at the Twins or not.

[Deduno Abides]

Next year would be better to (1) assess whether to trade Gordon and (2) to actually trade him, if desired.

 

All of the great SS in the system are in the low minors. Vielma is unfortunately hitting poorly in AAA, as many predicted. Perhaps Adrianza will be an unearthed gem, but he seems to be frequently injured. Dozier is likely to be gone after next year, if not sooner. The need and replacement for Gordon should be a lot clearer next year.

 

Also, next year's team is likely to be more competitive. For every slogan about going for it when you can, there's another slogan about keeping your powder dry. Also, pitchers are notoriously fragile. If one of the arguments for trading for a pitcher is to get someone long-term, it would be better to get a veteran and his cost in the long term and not ahead of it. There will be free agents available this winter and trade candidates next summer.

 

Of course, if you think Gordon's success this year is a mirage, then it would be better to trade him sooner than later.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wasn't a fan of Quintana last year either when his name was mentioned as a trade target for teams. I've never been a believer. Perhaps it was always the fact that he was a scrap heap pick up who had been DFA'd by two different teams despite the fact that the teams had never even needed to use an option on him.

Seems a little harsh, given the circumstances:

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/04/27/jose-quintana-white-sox-trade-rumors

 

Signed by the Mets at age 16 in 2006 for just $50,000, Quintana appeared in all of three games for the organization in the Venezuelan Summer League before being hit with a 50-game performance enhancing drugs suspension in March 2007, which he says was the result of a medicine he’d been prescribed for back pain that contained a banned substance. The Mets, who had a zero-tolerance policy for PED use in the minors, released him. At 17 years old, Quintana was worried his dream was already finished. “It was a very hard time, the most difficult of my career,” he says.

 

Hoping to attract the attention of another team, he pitched in the Colombian winter league and tried to figure out plans for his life if baseball fell through. He thought of going back to school, but the Yankees caught sight of him, signed him and sent him to their Dominican Summer League affiliate in 2008 for a second chance at a major league career.

 

 

“I’m thankful to have gotten their support in that moment,” he says. “Who knows where I would have ended up otherwise?”

 

For the next four years, Quintana pitched well but received little attention. In 2010, he had a 3.26 ERA at two levels, and in '11, he put up a 2.92 ERA with 88 strikeouts in 102 innings at Class A, but that wasn’t enough to earn him a longer look from the parent team. He reached free agency that year because he had spent six years in the minors, and while the Yankees offered him a new contract, it came without a coveted 40-man roster spot. “They told me they didn’t have space,” Quintana says.

 

(Among the players the Yankees kept over Quintana: outfielder Zoilo Almonte, pitcher D.J. Mitchell and infielder Corban Joseph, who played a combined 53 games for New York. “We looked at [Quintana] as a fringy prospect,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told the New York Post in 2012. “It was a numbers game, but right now it does not look like a good decision.”)

 

I would think the last 4 years of 18 bWAR would have caused you to reconsider...

Edited July 12, 2017 by spycake

[Mike Sixel]

 

As far as the AAA scouting skills, is there someone you're referring to? Or do you just mean the Breslow/Rucinsky/Tepesch/Wilk stuff?

 

Yeah, none of that was impressive. I'm not sure it was supposed to be though; I sure hope not. I always said I'll give them the first year free to evaluate. After that I'm going to expect to be wowed by their moves because I'm not settling for half measures made to desperately try for a .500 record and one-and-done playoff appearances.

 

Can only judge them on their actions to find hidden gems, so far, ummmm.

[h2oface]

I wonder if Shelby Miller is available?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I wonder if Shelby Miller is available?

 

Not sure if serious, but he had TJ surgery this year. He's not likely to be super ready/effective next year.

[nicksaviking]

 

Seems a little harsh, given the circumstances:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/04/27/jose-quintana-white-sox-trade-rumors


I would think the last 4 years of 18 bWAR would have caused you to reconsider...

 

It hasn't but I understand why his track record is appealing to others. 

 

I admitted I've been wrong predicting his demise every year but I still don't care much for crafty lefties; not just him.

[nicksaviking]

 

Can only judge them on their actions to find hidden gems, so far, ummmm.

 

Have they tried to find any yet?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Have they tried to find any yet?

 

if not, they are doing it wrong. IMO, of course.

 

if they expected all the pitchers they have added to fail, that's an issue too, I'd think.

[Vanimal46]

 

Of course, if you think Gordon's success this year is a mirage, then it would be better to trade him sooner than later.

 

This is where I am. He's going to have a tough time maintaining an .800+ OPS if he continues to struggle against LH pitching. Sure, he could settle in at the .700-.750 range, but that's probably not a top 20 prospect anymore. 

[Mike Sixel]

.750 OPS SS is 10th in all of MLB.....I'd think that's quite valuable, if you can play good defense.

[magiklair]

how about the twins spend in the off season instead?