Article: Deadline Primer: Should Nick Gordon Be On The Table?

[Mike Sixel]

 

No he is not.  He is a bona fide rising prospect.  Sano is a bona fide rising star.  Cannot call a guy who is performing well in AA in his first season with OPS >,721 a star, by any means.  And his .825 OPS, is less than Buxton's .830 in AA, and we know how well Buxton is hitting in the bigs...  Anothing thing that bothers me is his career 63/94 SB (9/12 this season).  He should be doing better than that. 

 

Also there have been issues with his glove and most people do not think that SS will be his future position.  The Twins have a glut of middle infielders in front and after him and they should sell high from a position of oversupply to get top of the rotation pitching. 

 

On the other hand, the 3 names mentioned are not what I would consider top of the rotation pitching.  Quintana is a solid #3 pitcher in a championship team, Gray is getting there and Straily is a big questionmark with 4.11 and 4.23 ERA the last 2 seasons against the AL.   I would not trade Gordon for any of them.   I would not trade within the division to start with.   Straily will likely require less to acquire because his inconsistency over the years, but he is pitching over his head against NL opponents.

 

If someone like Archer, Stroman, or Carlos Martinez is available, then I would trade Gordon in a heartbeat.  Otherwise he might look good as Dozier's replacement down the road.

 

We must be reading very different sites, because I haven't seen anyone say he's moving off SS anytime soon in over a year.

[Seth Stohs]

 

If you don't trade for it then you are going to have to outbid everyone for one of the few very good starters on the market that each have their own question marks on them.

If you trade you're going to have to outbid a bunch of others as well, and you lose 3-5 quality players. 

[Tomj14]

 

If you trade you're going to have to outbid a bunch of others as well, and you lose 3-5 quality players. 

I think you mean 3-5 quality prospects, because as of now none are quality big leaguers and the odds are only 1 or 2 of them is going to turn into a quality big leaguer.

[Vanimal46]

 

If you trade you're going to have to outbid a bunch of others as well, and you lose 3-5 quality players. 

 

I'll take 1 excellent MLB player over 3-5 players who may or may not succeed at the MLB level. 

[drjim]

If you make that as your starting offer, though, I don't think they bother asking for significantly more. They already know what the answer will be.

 

Gordon is a nice prospect, and he's having a nice year -- he's a respectable piece in any package. But I think the Rays, the Twins, and everyone else understands that it's not even worth discussing Archer unless you are ready to include another prospect equivalent to Gordon in value. Which the Twins don't even have, unless you want to include Lewis.

Archer and Stroman are fun to talk about, but they aren't coming for even a Gordon, Gonsalves, Romero and Kiriloff package. Teams are going to target higher upside guys over good depth.

 

Twins don't have the pieces to get a high quality contollable pitcher with just minor leaguers. It would take Kepler, which I wouldn't do.

[Thrylos]

 

That package (Gordon, Gonsalves, Kirilloff) is a non-starter for Archer or Stroman.  So yes, you are basically saying you won't ever entertain any major trades.

 

Why?   The Padres traded Jake Peavy to the WSux for Dexter Carter, Aaron Poreda (#63 BA), Clayton Richard and Adam Russell.  Only one top 100 guy and much lower ranked than Gordon

 

If you look at the KC Tampa trade:

James Sheilds and Wade Davis for Patrick Leonard, Mike Montgomery (MLB #31), Will Myers (MLB #19), Jake Odorizzi (MLB #47)  and subtract Wade Davis and at least on of the top 100 players on the other, you will see that the talent  is pretty similar to that of Gordon, Gonsalves, Kirilloff

[laloesch]

 

No.  Can you imagine how bad the Twins pitching would be this season without Buxton in CF?  Archer wouldn't fix that.   Plus, Buxton will hit.  He's 23. Patience.

 

I don't mean to be negative but quality defense in CF doesn't make up for the fact that he hasn't hit diddly squat so far in almost 700 at-bats and 221 games at the major league level.    

 

At what point does he cross over from promising young prospect to major disappointment and finally bust? 4 or 5 years?  A decade?  He's only 23 right?   If some team came knocking offering up a promising young starter like Archer and asked for Buxton as a major key piece in a trade i'd sure as hell listen that's for sure.    

[drjim]

Why? The Padres traded Jake Peavy to the WSux for Dexter Carter, Aaron Poreda (#63 BA), Clayton Richard and Adam Russell. Only one top 100 guy and much lower ranked than Gordon

 

If you look at the KC Tampa trade:

James Sheilds and Wade Davis for Patrick Leonard, Mike Montgomery (MLB #31), Will Myers (MLB #19), Jake Odorizzi (MLB #47) and subtract Wade Davis and at least on of the top 100 players on the other, you will see that the talent is pretty similar to that of Gordon, Gonsalves, Kirilloff

Peavy wasn't that highly regarded at the time.

 

And even subtracting a top 100 guy and Davis, that is not an equitable swap.

 

And Myerd was ranked #4 by BA after the trade. Much higher regarded than Gordon. And Shields had less control.

[Han Joelo]

 

people are awfully down on De Leon pretty fast. His numbers in AAA dwarf what any AA pitcher the Twins have is doing. 

You may be referring to his overall AAA numbers, but these are what he's done this year:  http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592254#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL

 

Small sample size to be sure, but that is due to injury.  Upshot as it regards this thread:  Pitchers are uncertain!  You should NOT trade for them.  Or, you SHOULD trade prospects while you have the chance.  Cripes, thank god I'm not getting paid to figure this out.

[Tomj14]

 

I don't mean to be negative but quality defense in CF doesn't make up for the fact that he hasn't hit diddly squat so far in almost 700 at-bats and 221 games at the major league level.    

 

At what point does he cross over from promising young prospect to major disappointment and finally bust? 4 or 5 years?  A decade?  He's only 23 right?   If some team came knocking offering up a promising young starter like Archer and asked for Buxton as a major key piece in a trade i'd sure as hell listen that's for sure.    

I could maybe agree with you if we had another stud outfielder real close, but we don't and please don't say Granite. But as long as Buxton plays defense like his is I am giving him another 1 1/2 year (1500 at bats) before I think about moving him. (not 682)

Edited July 12, 2017 by Tomj14

[tobi0040]

We always overvalue other players and under value our own. That is the frustrating thing about these discussions.

 

If Dozier can only net one top 50 prospect, we don't need to give up Gordon for Strailly. His career ERA plus is 99.

 

Gray's ERA plus is 112 but only has two years left and should be costly in Arb 2 and 3.

 

The most important thing we can do is try and lock up Miguel Sano. If we can't, we should market him and net a huge haul.

[MN_ExPat]

 

I was just over reading the comments on MLBTR ... White Sox fans seem to think a "number 1" like Quintana should be able to net them Gordon, Kirilloff and Gonsalves.

 

Did I miss a punchline somewhere? When did Quintana become an ace? Would anyone consider such a package?

 

I'd probably throw kittens into traffic if the FO did something that stupid.

Wow, that's.... Well bless their (Sox fans) little hearts. 

[markos]

 

If you make that as your starting offer, though, I don't think they bother asking for significantly more.  They already know what the answer will be.

 

Gordon is a nice prospect, and he's having a nice year -- he's a respectable piece in any package.  But I think the Rays, the Twins, and everyone else understands that it's not even worth discussing Archer unless you are ready to include another prospect equivalent to Gordon in value.  Which the Twins don't even have, unless you want to include Lewis.

This touches on the the biggest problem with the current Twins farm system. There are probably a half-dozen win-now or win-soon teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers, Braves, Indians, Rockies. maybe Dodgers and Cubs) that could meet or exceed the best Twins offer right now (especially with Lewis ineligible for trades). So there is really no way that they are able to win a bidding war for a guy like Archer. Their only alternative is overpay for a lesser guy. Maybe that guy is Quintana. He has been on the market for a while now, but teams like the Astros and Yankees have balked at paying the asking price. It is conceivable that a Gordon-Kiriloff-Gonsalves might be a winnable offer, even if it is arguably an overpay.

[Vanimal46]

 

You may be referring to his overall AAA numbers, but these are what he's done this year:  http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592254#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL

 

Small sample size to be sure, but that is due to injury.  Upshot as it regards this thread:  Pitchers are uncertain!  You should NOT trade for them.  Or, you SHOULD trade prospects while you have the chance.  Cripes, thank god I'm not getting paid to figure this out.

 

I'm not sure what the right answer is either. Prospects, and specifically their rankings can rise and fall quickly. Personally I'm trading a fast rising prospect, especially if there is a surplus in the organization at the position, before a bad season crashes their ranking. 

 

I keep bringing up this example, and I'm sure there are more out there... Would Giolito and Lopez bring back a 4-5 WAR MLB player today? Probably not. The Nationals sold high at the right time.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

You may be referring to his overall AAA numbers, but these are what he's done this year:  http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592254#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL

 

Small sample size to be sure, but that is due to injury.  Upshot as it regards this thread:  Pitchers are uncertain!  You should NOT trade for them.  Or, you SHOULD trade prospects while you have the chance.  Cripes, thank god I'm not getting paid to figure this out.

 

so, never draft or trade for pitchers? got it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you trade you're going to have to outbid a bunch of others as well, and you lose 3-5 quality players. 

 

so, don't trade for a good SP? Where do you expect to get good SP for the next 3 years while Sano is here?

[Craig Arko]

 

so, don't trade for a good SP? Where do you expect to get good SP for the next 3 years while Sano is here?

 

[jimmer]

Some are asking when Quintana became an Ace. In the last 4 seasons prior to this year, his fWAR was 3.5, 5.1, 4.8, 4.8. Barring injury, this will be his 5th year in a row at 200 or more IP, and his 4th year in a row with a fWAR at 4.0 or higher. He hasnt been below top 8 in AL SP fWAR in the last three full seasons.

Edited July 12, 2017 by jimmer

[nicksaviking]

 

Then good luck to them getting such a return elsewhere, to include either would be insane for the Twins. Sano is worth more than Archer straight up. Trading away Berrios defeats the entire purpose of trying to build out a legitimate rotation.

 

I agree, that's why I wouldn't bother with any of these mid-season asking prices and would wait until the off season when the selling teams have to also compete with free agents who cost zero prospects.

[markos]

 

Some are asking when Quintana became an Ace. In the last 4 seasons prior to this year, his fWAR was 3.5, 5.1, 4.8, 4.8. Barring injury, this will be his 5th year in a row at 200 or more IP, and his 4th year in a row with a fWAR at 4.0 or higher. He hasnt been below top 8 in AL SP fWAR in the last three full seasons.

Quintana is like the poster-child in any "Ace" or "Not Ace" discussion, right? He is undoubtedly very good, but in almost any playoff series he will be the underdog to the other team's #1 starter. He has been durable and effective, but don't have amazing stuff. I personally consider him an "Ace", but I have a big tent when it comes to defining who is or isn't an Ace. I respect those who disagree.

[Seth Stohs]

 

so, don't trade for a good SP? Where do you expect to get good SP for the next 3 years while Sano is here?

 

I never said don't trade for good SP. I just said it takes something good (or to appease others, some things that may be good) to get something good. I'd give up a bunch for Archer. I'd give up quite a bit for Stroman. I'd give up something good for Quintana and Gray. I'd give up an OK prospect for a Straily. Gerritt Cole would obviously fit into the Archer category if he were made available. 

 

But if they want to acquire a good or great SP, they have to give up something potentially good or great. And, you can't just say, send them all over to get that one pitcher. That doesn't work. There has to be some sort of limit. I mean, otherwise, just send them Sano and Kepler and Gordon for Archer cuz at least then we'll have one great starter. That's my only point. There has to be some line that makes it silly for the Twins to cross. 

 

And I'm not going to pretend I know what that line is. That's up to Falvey and Levine to decide. 

 

I do tend to think that three top five prospects is a lot for anyone... and I don't know if there are many examples where that is what it takes.

[Thrylos]

 

so, don't trade for a good SP? Where do you expect to get good SP for the next 3 years while Sano is here?

 

Divine intervention à la Johan Santana  

 

Regardless what they do during the deadline, I hope they go hard after Michael Pineda during free agency... 

[Vanimal46]

 

I agree, that's why I wouldn't bother with any of these mid-season asking prices and would wait until the off season when the selling teams have to also compete with free agents who cost zero prospects.

 

The asking price for pitchers with 3+ years of control left should remain the same whether it's now, or December 2017, no? 

[nicksaviking]

 

Why does Quintana have question marks? He's been the definition of durable over the previous 4 seasons - 32 starts, 200+ innings, low 3's ERA and FIP. 

 

He hasn't been nearly as good this year and he's all of a sudden developed an issue with walks when his success has always been based almost exclusively on good control.

 

Also, he's all but a two-pitch pitcher now as he rarely uses his change-up.

 

I mean if you can get him based on the value of his numbers this year, sure, I'd be interested. I doubt the White Sox would trade him under that pretense though. Also there's the issue of helping the White Sox reload. Yuck.

[nicksaviking]

 

The asking price for pitchers with 3+ years of control left should remain the same whether it's now, or December 2017, no? 

 

Perhaps, but as we saw with the Dozier situation last winter, demand is more important. It'll probably always be relatively high for pitchers though I concede.

[markos]

 

I agree, that's why I wouldn't bother with any of these mid-season asking prices and would wait until the off season when the selling teams have to also compete with free agents who cost zero prospects.

The problem with the offseason is that there are also more buyers. In particular, every team losing a free agent pitcher is looking for a replacement. Offseason acquisitions can be overly expensive, too. For example, when the Royals acquired Shields, or the Diamondbacks acquired Miller.

[laloesch]

 

so, don't trade for a good SP? Where do you expect to get good SP for the next 3 years while Sano is here?

 

Well they had the #1:1 pick and a supplemental pick (#35) and could have drafted several college pitchers who could fast track to the majors instead of a "toolsey infielder" and Outfielder / future DH both of which they have an overabundance in compared to quality pitching.  At some point you have to start addressing the key deficiency in the system instead of wishing for something to appear out of thin air.  

[amjgt]

 

You realize you are basically saying you won't even consider anything other than a minor trade, right?

 

3 out of an org's top 5 is pretty meaningless without context. And the context here would include a SP repeating AA but still outside of most top 100 lists (Gonsalves), and a corner outfielder selected 15th overall who has yet to play outside of rookie league ball.

 

 

 

Gonsalves only has 23 AA starts. I'd hardly call that repeating, just because some came last year and some came this year.

[Don Walcott]

I don't think that we get enough with Gordon as the centerpiece of a trade to make it worthwhile. I'd prefer that we wait until the offseason and break the bank for a #1 or #2 quality starter.

[nicksaviking]

 

so, don't trade for a good SP? Where do you expect to get good SP for the next 3 years while Sano is here?

 

I'd like to think the new front office has their teams looking for the undervalued guys. I'd rather look for the upside guys you can buy low on. Get our own Arrieta, or Straily or Scherzer (2009) or Kulber or Robbie Ray.

 

Except for the elite arms, trading for good-not-great pitchers rarely seems to payoff for the buyers. I don't think many of these guys available are elite.