Article: Deadline Primer: Should Nick Gordon Be On The Table?

[Vanimal46]

 

Whom do you trade Dozier for?  I don't even think a Jose De Leon type would be on the table anymore.  (Well, the actual injured Jose De Leon probably would be, but not a SP prospect with his offseason ranking.)

 

Yep. One, he's fallen back to Earth stats-wise, which most all of us on here predicted. Two, not that I ever root for injuries to players, but there have not been any significant injuries to 2B around the league. 

The market is still the same, if not worse than last winter. 

[spsdrock]

I would like to see if we can get something with a Dozier & Rosario trade for a controlled pitcher. We can plug Granite in left with Grossman a bit. We can move Polanco to 2nd and have Escobar/Adrianza play SS.  Next year we have the same at SS until Gordon is ready to take over for good. Maybe in the offseason we can pick up a power hitting corner OF for LF or just keep rolling with Granite.

 

But i honestly think what will happen is we trade escobar/grossman for a RP or something small like that.  This has been coming up with in my head for a few weeks now. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

How would you say that Quintana is a "hidden ace" but you wouldn't consider that package?  If you believe that about Quintana, you'd pretty much have to consider it and quite possibly pull the trigger if the White Sox were willing.  (I think the White Sox might ask for a significant 4th piece, or just use the offer to drive up bids from other clubs, but that's another issue from whether the Twins should consider it.)

 

Cuz Gordon, Kirilloff and Gonsalves are three of the team's Top 5 prospects... 

 

[kab21]

 

Trading for very good pitching is very expensive.  Look at the trades for Sale, Miller and Chapman.   Those trades remade the Yankees farm system.  If you look at the Sale trade, which involved MLB top ranked prospect and a 30, the Twins currently have no one in there farm system to make such a deal.  If you look back historically, it would have been the equivalent of the Twins trading Sano (or Buxton) plus Berrios and couple of lower level prospects.    If the Twins were 1 starting pitcher away from a legitimate shot at a WS run, I could see a trade for Archer, Gray, or Quintana.  The problem is the Twins need at least 1 starting pitcher (maybe 2) and 2 relief pitchers.  Obviously the injuries to May and Perkins have an impact.  

 

I don't believe the Twins are capable of beating Houston, or Washington or the Dodgers.  So I would not trade away top prospects at the trade deadline, especially when prices for quality arms are expensive.

Yes, I am perfectly aware that it is expensive to trade for good pitching.

The elephant in the room is that this team has two better than average starters (hoping Ervin can withstand father time) and they will not go anywhere (significant) ever if they don't add pitching. And you are right, they aren't 1 pitcher away. That is why I would only target controllable starters (2.5 seasons).

The absolutely most important part of the equation if the Twins want to be competitive in 2018-2020 is to first add a 3rd good pitcher because you can't add a 4th good starter until you have a 3rd one in place. 

So how do you propose the Twins add a 3rd good starter (and potentially a 4th) for 2018? Or do you tear it down and completely rebuild because the Twins aren't one starter away? Picking the middle route and just waiting (hoping) that Twins rebuild the rotation through prospects is going to take awhile or involve a lot of luck.

[Tomj14]

 

how do you propose they get pitching next year, or the year after, if not in trades?

Well since some think every prospect we have is un-touchable they obviously think we are going hit 100% on all them. And they will hit in the next year in half so they are ready before our majors leaguers are free agents. To get a 1 or 2, I would trade Gordon, Gonzo or Romero, plus a AA relief pitcher and another A ball player and anybody in triple A that is on the 40 man so we can free up a spot.

[Vanimal46]

 

Cuz Gordon, Kirilloff and Gonsalves are three of the team's Top 5 prospects... 

 

Prospect rankings are fickle year over year though... For example, I'm sure Washington fans were freaking out that they traded Giolito (#3 prospect in the game) Lopez (#30 prospect in the game) and Cunning for Eaton. 

Now that Giolito and Lopez are struggling and look like bullpen arms, they think they fleeced the White Sox. 

[Section234HHHMet]

For context on trading pitching and trading prospects consider KC Royals. 

 

They traded an absolute ace to the Brewers in Zack Grienke. The Brewers didn't accomplish much with Grienke, but they did give up Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, and Jake Odorizzi.  

A couple years later, Cain and Escobar formed a core on two consecutive World Series with the Royals. 

Odorizzi helped net the Royals a new (maybe lesser) ace in James Shields and all star closer Wade Davis in a trade with Tampa that included Royals top prospect Will Myers. 

At the time, the Will Myers/James Shields trade was not popular with Royals fans. 

In hind sight the Royals "won" both trades and achieved ultimate victory with a WS win. 

Can the Twins replicate that type of trading success?

 

 

[markos]

 

Prospect rankings are fickle year over year though... For example, I'm sure Washington fans were freaking out that they traded Giolito (#3 prospect in the game) Lopez (#30 prospect in the game) and Cunning for Eaton. 

Now that Giolito and Lopez are struggling and look like bullpen arms, they think they fleeced the White Sox. 

Not to take anything away from your broader point about prospect rankings, but there are a lot of Nationals fans who wish they still had Giolito and Lopez to either put in their bullpen right now or trade for bullpen help.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Cuz Gordon, Kirilloff and Gonsalves are three of the team's Top 5 prospects... 

You realize you are basically saying you won't even consider anything other than a minor trade, right?

 

3 out of an org's top 5 is pretty meaningless without context. And the context here would include a SP repeating AA but still outside of most top 100 lists (Gonsalves), and a corner outfielder selected 15th overall who has yet to play outside of rookie league ball.

 

I get holding onto elite prospects like Buxton and Sano were, or guys who are ready for immediate MLB contribution, but I don't see much pointing in not even considering dealing other guys.

 

(I could be swayed by the idea that Quintana is not the same quality "hidden ace" target he would have been 6 months ago. But that's about Quintana and not about "3 of our top 5 prospects")

[Vanimal46]

 

Not to take anything away from your broader point about prospect rankings, but there are a lot of Nationals fans who wish they still had Giolito and Lopez to either put in their bullpen right now or trade for bullpen help.

 

That may be so. I would guess at the end of the day they'll be very happy to have a 4-5 WAR player at an extremely reasonable 4/$34.4 MM contract rate through 2021 instead of a couple of hopeful starters that become bullpen arms. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

You realize you are basically saying you won't even consider anything other than a minor trade, right?

 

3 out of an org's top 5 is pretty meaningless without context. And the context here would include a SP repeating AA but still outside of most top 100 lists (Gonsalves), and a corner outfielder selected 15th overall who has yet to play outside of rookie league ball.

 

I get holding onto elite prospects like Buxton and Sano were, or guys who are ready for immediate MLB contribution, but I don't see much pointing in not even considering dealing other guys.

 

(I could be swayed by the idea that Quintana is not the same quality "hidden ace" target he would have been 6 months ago. But that's about Quintana and not about "3 of our top 5 prospects")

 

I would rank the 'believed-to-be' long-term starting pitcher guys this way: Archer, Stroman, Quintana, Gray and then Straily. (of the names we've heard so far. To me, the first two are on one tier. Then Quintana and Gray are on a second tier, whether it be because of injury concern or intra-division concern)... and Strailly is far off of that. 

 

The above package would have to be strongly considered for Archer and Stroman. For Quintana and Gray, I don't think I'd trade as much, though I think three top 10 guys is still likely to be necessary. For Straily, I might be able to be talked into a guy in the 8-12 range in Twins "prospectdom."

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know we see top org prospects and we think Sano, Buxton, Berrios, or even Kepler, or from the past Mauer and Morneau.

 

But here's a list of other top 5 Twins org prospects, as graded by Sickels at B+ or better (to help weed out some of the big fish from our shallower prospect ponds) from the past 10 years: Meyer, Stewart, Hicks, Arcia, Gibson, Wimmers, Revere, Robertson, Garza, Slowey, Parmelee.  Other top 5 guys who topped out at a B grade include Jay, Rosario, Hendriks, Ramos, Hunt, Morlan, Manship, and Perkins.

 

What's the real hit rate for that group?  Don't forget to discount if they took a long time getting there (i.e. Perkins, maybe Hicks).  If you're non-elite and/or not particularly close to the majors, these guys aren't necessarily super-valuable.  Obviously it varies by player, but I'm seeing nothing here to say the "3 of our top 5" should simply be off the table, without consideration.

[Loosey]

Personally, none of those three pitchers in the article do much for me.  Especially if it takes trading away a top prospect.  If I am trading away top prospects I say shoot for the moon and go for an Archer or Stroman for a huge package.  

 

If you can get a true top end starter for a few prospects then do it.  No more of this "he's good enough middle of the road stuff".  I want the best available in a trade. Even if that means the farm.  Or if that isn't available just spend $$$ in the offseason. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The above package would have to be strongly considered for Archer and Stroman. For Quintana and Gray, I don't think I'd trade as much, though I think three top 10 guys is still likely to be necessary. For Straily, I might be able to be talked into a guy in the 8-12 range in Twins "prospectdom."

That package (Gordon, Gonsalves, Kirilloff) is a non-starter for Archer or Stroman.  So yes, you are basically saying you won't ever entertain any major trades.

[Seth Stohs]

 

That package (Gordon, Gonsalves, Kirilloff) is a non-starter for Archer or Stroman.  So yes, you are basically saying you won't ever entertain any major trades.

 

I don't know. I think that would at a minimum keep the conversation going. 

[Han Joelo]

What we need is for Dozier to go on a real binge for the next two weeks, with no sign of slowing down as we hit the deadline.  The way he hit last year in the second half.  THAT Dozier, if he ever returns, could DH and provide depth for just about any team.

 

As far as Seth's proposed non-package for Archer, I hope it is a non-starter, from the Twins perspective.  We're talking about a team that bit on Deleon, here.  They'd probably take Duensing for Archer straight up.

[jrod23]

 

 

But here's a list of other top 5 Twins org prospects, as graded by Sickels at B+ or better (to help weed out some of the big fish from our shallower prospect ponds) from the past 10 years: Meyer, Stewart, Hicks, Arcia, Gibson, Wimmers, Revere, Robertson, Garza, Slowey, Parmelee.  Other top 5 guys who topped out at a B grade include Jay, Rosario, Hendriks, Ramos, Hunt, Morlan, Manship, and Perkins.

 

 

 

This is more the norm, prospect ratings that don't pan out.  So when I have hopes of a Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, +1 rotation, it'll look more like Berrios, and one of the 3.  We do have SOME depth at MI with Vielma, Gordon, Javier, and Palacios (not counting out Lewis).  Blankenhorn, Arraez, and Miranda at 2B.  I'm sure you could find something out of those 10 boys in the minors to come up with a package for one of the 3, Quintana, Gray, or Archer.  What baffles me is calling these guys aces.  They're career wins are all hovering around .500.  I'd take any of the three, but not at a high price.  Felix Jorge, Kintzler, and one other besides Palacios and Gordon.  None of them would have a need for Kintzler though.

 

That being said, I don't want to bolster the White Sox farm system any more than it already is.  Kopech's a stud.  Find a way to weasel him away from the Sox and I would give up Gordon.

[Vanimal46]

 

What we need is for Dozier to go on a real binge for the next two weeks, with no sign of slowing down as we hit the deadline.  The way he hit last year in the second half.  THAT Dozier, if he ever returns, could DH and provide depth for just about any team.

 

As far as Seth's proposed non-package for Archer, I hope it is a non-starter, from the Twins perspective.  We're talking about a team that bit on Deleon, here.  They'd probably take Duensing for Archer straight up.

 

The Rays know what they have with Archer. A front line starter at an absurdly low 4/$30.6 MM contract through 2021. It's going to take a village of prospects to trade him away. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't know. I think that would at a minimum keep the conversation going. 

Why?  Unless you're going to add Romero-plus and/or Lewis to the mix, it's not going to get it done.  What exactly would they converse about?

Edited July 12, 2017 by spycake

[kab21]

There are 3 ways to add starting pitching for the Twins:

1) develop it - realistically only 1 (possibly 2) of Mejia, Romero, Gonsalves or Jorge become decent starters and it might take a couple of years of bouncing between AAA and MLB to accomplish it. If this is the plan then trade off everyone (and I mean everyone) and build for 2021 or later.

 

2) sign a FA - I have been told that the FA pitching market sucks (hopes and dreams) and the Twins won't add anyone good there.

 

3) trade for it - it is great to say that I would only trade a couple of our best prospects for actual elite starters but what is your plan B in case the very few options are turned down? And I am not sure if the Twins have the prospects for Archer or Stroman even if nobody is untouchable.

 

At some point you will need to pick a path and make a risky move. The other option is to not make a significant addition to the rotation and repeat the 2017 season (and the ones before it).

[Seth Stohs]

 

Why?  Unless you're going to add Romero-plus and/or Lewis to the mix, it's not going to get it done.  What exactly would they converse about?

 

They can ask for more, and the Twins can still say no... a non-trade is way better than a bad trade... and there are two separate perspectives of what that phrase means, one for each team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They can ask for more, and the Twins can still say no...

If you make that as your starting offer, though, I don't think they bother asking for significantly more.  They already know what the answer will be.

 

Gordon is a nice prospect, and he's having a nice year -- he's a respectable piece in any package.  But I think the Rays, the Twins, and everyone else understands that it's not even worth discussing Archer unless you are ready to include another prospect equivalent to Gordon in value.  Which the Twins don't even have, unless you want to include Lewis.

[kab21]

 

They can ask for more, and the Twins can still say no... a non-trade is way better than a bad trade... and there are two separate perspectives of what that phrase means, one for each team.

But if they say no and there aren't other acceptable options then the Twins don't add starting pitching. And that is as bad as a bad trade because this team won't truly go anywhere without adding starting pitching.

The Twins are basically in the Sam Bradford situation. That trade was a necessary overpay because the Vikings had no options at QB. But they certainly overpaid in that trade. 

If you don't trade for it then you are going to have to outbid everyone for one of the few very good starters on the market that each have their own question marks on them.

[nicksaviking]

Of the names bandied around, only Chris Archer really interests me. Nearly everyone else looks like injury or regression candidates.

 

If this team is trading away top prospects, I'd rather they go big and get a guy who would be #1 with a bullet, not a Gray or Straily or Quintana who have big question marks. 

 

So I'd wait until the off season because I doubt there's an package the Rays would accept for Archer that didn't either include Sano or Berrios.

[Tomj14]

What would it take to get Jeff Samardzija and his 58+ million for the next 3 plus years I wouldn't think much for San Fran to get out of the contract. He is a hair younger than Santana and locked up though 2020 (age 35).

(Maybe Jorge?)

Edited July 12, 2017 by Tomj14

[drivlikejehu]

 

Of the names bandied around, only Chris Archer really interests me. Nearly everyone else looks like injury or regression candidates.

 

If this team is trading away top prospects, I'd rather they go big and get a guy who would be #1 with a bullet, not a Gray or Straily or Quintana who have big question marks. 

 

So I'd wait until the off season because I doubt there's an package the Rays would accept for Archer that didn't either include Sano or Berrios.

 

Then good luck to them getting such a return elsewhere, to include either would be insane for the Twins. Sano is worth more than Archer straight up. Trading away Berrios defeats the entire purpose of trying to build out a legitimate rotation.

Edited July 12, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[Vanimal46]

 

Of the names bandied around, only Chris Archer really interests me. Nearly everyone else looks like injury or regression candidates.

 

If this team is trading away top prospects, I'd rather they go big and get a guy who would be #1 with a bullet, not a Gray or Straily or Quintana who have big question marks. 

 

So I'd wait until the off season because I doubt there's an package the Rays would accept for Archer that didn't either include Sano or Berrios.

 

Why does Quintana have question marks? He's been the definition of durable over the previous 4 seasons - 32 starts, 200+ innings, low 3's ERA and FIP. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

Gordon is now a bona fide rising star

 

No he is not.  He is a bona fide rising prospect.  Sano is a bona fide rising star.  Cannot call a guy who is performing well in AA in his first season with OPS >,721 a star, by any means.  And his .825 OPS, is less than Buxton's .830 in AA, and we know how well Buxton is hitting in the bigs...  Anothing thing that bothers me is his career 63/94 SB (9/12 this season).  He should be doing better than that. 

 

Also there have been issues with his glove and most people do not think that SS will be his future position.  The Twins have a glut of middle infielders in front and after him and they should sell high from a position of oversupply to get top of the rotation pitching. 

 

On the other hand, the 3 names mentioned are not what I would consider top of the rotation pitching.  Quintana is a solid #3 pitcher in a championship team, Gray is getting there and Straily is a big questionmark with 4.11 and 4.23 ERA the last 2 seasons against the AL.   I would not trade Gordon for any of them.   I would not trade within the division to start with.   Straily will likely require less to acquire because his inconsistency over the years, but he is pitching over his head against NL opponents.

 

If someone like Archer, Stroman, or Carlos Martinez is available, then I would trade Gordon in a heartbeat.  Otherwise he might look good as Dozier's replacement down the road.

Edited July 12, 2017 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

 

What we need is for Dozier to go on a real binge for the next two weeks, with no sign of slowing down as we hit the deadline.  The way he hit last year in the second half.  THAT Dozier, if he ever returns, could DH and provide depth for just about any team.

 

As far as Seth's proposed non-package for Archer, I hope it is a non-starter, from the Twins perspective.  We're talking about a team that bit on Deleon, here.  They'd probably take Duensing for Archer straight up.

 

people are awfully down on De Leon pretty fast. His numbers in AAA dwarf what any AA pitcher the Twins have is doing. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

But if they say no and there aren't other acceptable options then the Twins don't add starting pitching. And that is as bad as a bad trade because this team won't truly go anywhere without adding starting pitching.

The Twins are basically in the Sam Bradford situation. That trade was a necessary overpay because the Vikings had no options at QB. But they certainly overpaid in that trade. 

If you don't trade for it then you are going to have to outbid everyone for one of the few very good starters on the market that each have their own question marks on them.

 

Given what other teams gave up for unproven draft pick QBs, we'll just disagree that was an overpay...but your point is valid.

 

If the Twins won't trade for or sign legit SP, this team is doomed to mediocrity.