Article: Deadline Primer: Are Twins Buyers Or Sellers?

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Phillies have a guy named Altherr.  Any chance we could deal Altbrunansky for him?

[jorgenswest]

This may be a better comp to the '84 team that made a run. They were 43-41 at the break. Key players were 23-25.

 

They were not active in the trade market. They made two August deals that did no compromise the future.

 

They sent a AAA pitcher, Jay Pettibone, in an August deal to try to fill an enormous void at SS in veteran Chris Speier. He didn't.

 

They sent an A+ 2B prospect, Carson Carroll, to the Mariners for Pat Putnam to try to find someone that could give them offense from DH. He didn't.

 

It would have been easy at the time to suggest they trade the empty bats of Puckett or Gaetti for a pitcher or bat that would make a difference down the stretch. Glad they didn't.

Edited July 10, 2017 by jorgenswest

[caninatl04]

I wonder if theAstros would have interest in Santana. Think we could get them to give up Francis martes and David Paulino.

No

[caninatl04]

And while the Twins play teams like the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers, the Indians play-- are you ready for this?-- Jays, A's, Giants, Angels and White Sox.

 

So, by the trading deadline, it is not inconceivable that the Twins would fall six more games back.

 

I do enjoy the discussion, but, like other posters, I'm afraid it will prove moot by the deadline.

 

My best guess? Minor sellers-- more likely in late August with playoff bound teams looking for minor pieces. These pieces would probably have little trouble clearing waivers.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Granite doesn't have 1/16th the talent of Buxton, no way ,no how, no can.  No matter the amount of hype that Bremer and the Twins broadcast team are heaping on him. That guy Granite is an average to AAAA player at best. Any comparison to Buxton are laughable. He has proven zero, what that he can hit AAA pitching?

Granite has zero power, projects to zero power, and this BS that he Buxton is lucky to make catches is none-sensical. Teams would run not walk to trade for a player of Buxton's talent level, and he is still young too, not even scratching the surface yet. Buxton has the power to be a 4 or 5 hitter in his prime plus he is the second fastest player in the league. He takes away at least 1 run a game almost, I cannot believe someone would say we should trade Buxton to clear a spot for Granite, that is like clearing a spot for "Lew Ford". 

 

 

Twins did that.  Sort of.  They sent Cuddyer down to the minors to let Ford play.  Then they moved Cuddyer to the infield for a few seasons.  2003 or 2004 maybe.  One of those years.

[spinowner]

 

He is an infielder in an outfielder's body 

This is particularly insightful. Reminds me of the best sentence that Jim Souhan ever wrote. He described Matthew LeCroy as a baseball player trapped in the body of a softball player.

Edited July 10, 2017 by spinowner

[bird]

 

No

 

You sure?

[spinowner]

 

 I cannot believe someone would say we should trade Buxton to clear a spot for Granite, that is like clearing a spot for "Lew Ford". 

Literally LOL. There is one thing I hope is different about Granite compared to Lew Ford. I hope that Granite would never think that ironing a shirt while he's wearing it is a good idea.

[tobi0040]

I would be shocked if the Twins added anything of consequence by giving up anything of consequence (prospects)

 

Absolutely shocked.

[jun]

I would like to see Polanco sent down to AAA instead of Granite after the break.

Polanco has been worse than Buxton offensively lately. His avg is slightly better than Buxton with little power.

He has been consistently bad defensively.

Granite deserves to play more games at major league level.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would like to see Polanco sent down to AAA instead of Granite after the break.

Polanco has been worse than Buxton offensively lately. His avg is slightly better than Buxton with little power.

He has been consistently bad defensively.

Granite deserves to play more games at major league level.

Polanco is out of options, otherwise I suspect he would have been sent down long ago.

[USAFChief]

What I want (and know I won't necessarily get) is for the Twins to be an organization that supports a major league team that is in contention every season. That's a formidable but achievable goal. It means having a steady stream of improving prospects, which in turn means having quality people throughout the organization, especially scouting and player development. Trades and free agent acquisitions will also only be successful with good scouting and player development. We are not there yet and it will take a number of years to reach this goal. In the meantime trading to win now is contrary to this goal. I hope that in 5 years we'll be in a position to make such trades.

A couple things, Spin:

 

I don't understand why "every season" doesn't include this season. Or the next four, for that matter.

 

For your goal to be realistic, in addition to quality people throughout, I think you need to add an ownership that commits to it, which means they're going to have to value winning over profit.

[Thrylos]

 

 

I don't see how trading Santana would be a win for 2018.

 

Because Santana is regressing rapidly towards his 4.68 season FIP.  His ERA last month was 5.38.  Despite that, his .217 BABIP and 83.6% LOB% are not sustainable.  

 

This might be the highest value Santana has and I think that we have seen the best of him.   If you can get a couple of good young arms, one you can plug in the rotation right away and one at the end of the pen, you do it.   If Santana's ERA from now on is at the 5s and 6s, you can definitely win in  2017 and 2018...   And let's not forget that the guy is a half a UCL or another PED positive from giving the Twins nothing...

[drjim]

I have not change my mind on this. I think that the Twins should be both buyers and sellers and make adjustments that can help them both in 2017 and in the long run.

 

Things I would do:

 

-I would knock on the Pirates' door to see whether Buxton (.663 OPS last month) can fetch Starling Marte (28 and under team control until age 32 season in a reasonable contract and the last 2 seasons with team options) and Felipe Rivero (25 and under team control for 4 seasons). That will give the Twins a gold glove CF and lead of option who actually gets on base and steals some, and a real closer.

 

-I would knock on the Yankees' door to see whether Santana (5.34 ERA last month) can fetch Jordan Montgomery (24, 6 seasons of team control) and Giovanny Gallegos. (25, 6 seasons of team control). Montgomery jumps into Santana's spot in the rotation and Gallegos at the set up role.

 

- I would knock on Milwaukee's door to see whether Dozier (.645 OPS last month) can fetch someone like Corbin Burnes (22) and Freddy Peralta. (21). Both of those guys go to AA and Nick Gordon comes up to replace Dozier as the Twins' second baseman

 

- Go for a rental starter that will not cost an arm and a leg. Matt Moore (28) might be an interesting target there, since he can be a free agent after this season and has 2 team options. Change of a scenery guy that might just take another change of a scenery guy (Santiago) to get him.

 

- Sell High on Kintzler and get the best prospect package you can get.

 

That will give the Twins a rotation of Berrios, Montgomery, Mejia, Moore, Gibson, a lineup of Marte, Mauer, Sano, Vargas, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Castro, Gordon, and a pen of Rivero, Gallegos, Rogers, Hughes, Duffey and two rotating pieces with the minors. The pen and the lineup will be a definite improvement and the rotation a likely improvement esp. with short leash on Gibson and Moore who both have options.

I'm surprised you keep mentioning Marte. I thought you were more of a ped purist.

[yarnivek1972]

Because Santana is regressing rapidly towards his 4.68 season FIP. His ERA last month was 5.38. Despite that, his .217 BABIP and 83.6% LOB% are not sustainable.

 

This might be the highest value Santana has and I think that we have seen the best of him. If you can get a couple of good young arms, one you can plug in the rotation right away and one at the end of the pen, you do it. If Santana's ERA from now on is at the 5s and 6s, you can definitely win in 2017 and 2018... And let's not forget that the guy is a half a UCL or another PED positive from giving the Twins nothing...

So, knowing all that, if I am the GM for another team, why am I trading for Santana?

[DocBauer]

I have not change my mind on this.  I think that the Twins should be both buyers and sellers and make adjustments that can help them both in 2017 and in the long run.

 

Things I would do: 

 

-I would knock on the Pirates' door to see whether Buxton (.663 OPS last month) can fetch Starling Marte (28 and under team control until age 32 season in a reasonable contract and the last 2 seasons with team options) and Felipe Rivero (25 and under team control for 4 seasons).   That will give the Twins a gold glove CF and lead of option who actually gets on base and steals some, and a real closer.

 

-I would knock on the Yankees' door to see whether Santana (5.34 ERA last month) can fetch Jordan Montgomery (24, 6 seasons of team control) and Giovanny Gallegos. (25, 6 seasons of team control).  Montgomery jumps into Santana's spot in the rotation and Gallegos at the set up role.

 

- I would knock on Milwaukee's door to see whether Dozier (.645 OPS last month) can fetch someone like Corbin Burnes (22) and Freddy Peralta. (21).  Both of those guys go to AA and Nick Gordon comes up to replace Dozier as the Twins' second baseman

 

- Go for a rental starter that will not cost an arm and a leg.  Matt Moore (28) might be an interesting target there, since he can be a free agent after this season and has 2 team options.  Change of a scenery guy that might just take another change of a scenery guy (Santiago) to get him.

 

- Sell High on Kintzler and get the best prospect package you can get.

 

That will give the Twins a rotation of Berrios, Montgomery, Mejia, Moore, Gibson, a lineup of Marte, Mauer, Sano, Vargas, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Castro, Gordon, and a pen of Rivero, Gallegos, Rogers, Hughes, Duffey and two rotating pieces with the minors.   The pen and the lineup will be a definite improvement and the rotation a likely improvement esp. with short leash on Gibson and Moore who both have options.

 

A lot of work and very intelligent thinking went in to this. And while I am absolutely loathe to trade Buxton, I see what you are doing here and it makes a lot of sense. However, and this is meant with respect and not disregard, it kind of reminds me of a fantasy mock draft. It just seems like too many moving pieces to be able to pull off successfully. But I absolutely commend you on the process!

[Riverbrian]

If in contention.

 

Kintzler is the only player I would move. 

 

 

[DocBauer]

A couple things, Spin:

I don't understand why "every season" doesn't include this season. Or the next four, for that matter.

For your goal to be realistic, in addition to quality people throughout, I think you need to add an ownership that commits to it, which means they're going to have to value winning over profit.

 

And you are absolutely right Chief! There is no reason that every season can't include this season.

 

Except for 1 caveat.

 

I actually like the new FO and think there is the making a of a really intelligent plan in the works here. I think this new FO really "gets" what needs to be done to build up the entire franchise. I'm very encouraged by a lot of things I've seen done, even if some of them are little things. But not only are our beloved Twins surprising a lot of people, but I'm sure they've surprised Falvey and Levine some too. But they have literally been in the job for something like 6 months now and are still learning the organization, from FO staff to field staff to players. And while I get the sense they want to support this team, and make various internal moves/promotions/auditions, etc, I have to wonder if they truly have enough of a grasp yet on the talent in the organization, as a whole, to make any big moves that wouldn't come back to bite them later?

[drivlikejehu]

 

I would be shocked if the Twins added anything of consequence by giving up anything of consequence (prospects)

Absolutely shocked.

 

You don't need to envision this scenario because the chances are literally 0%. Not .00001%, but actually 0%.

 

The fantasy trades on here are humorous, but certainly not related to anything that could happen.

[bird]

 

So, knowing all that, if I am the GM for another team, why am I trading for Santana?

 

 

You're making a huge assumption that some GM out there would know as much as we do here on TD.

[LaBombo]

 

So, knowing all that, if I am the GM for another team, why am I trading for Santana?

 

Because even despite the FIP/ERA disparity Santana is the best starting pitcher you can afford to trade for at the deadline?

[SwainZag]

 

So, knowing all that, if I am the GM for another team, why am I trading for Santana?

 

Because at times Santana can pitch like an ace and he only has one guaranteed year left on his contract after 2017.  He would probably be cheaper to get than a guy 10 years younger than himself and will still be an upgrade for about every team out there.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Because Santana is regressing rapidly towards his 4.68 season FIP.  His ERA last month was 5.38.  Despite that, his .217 BABIP and 83.6% LOB% are not sustainable.  

 

This might be the highest value Santana has and I think that we have seen the best of him.   If you can get a couple of good young arms, one you can plug in the rotation right away and one at the end of the pen, you do it.   If Santana's ERA from now on is at the 5s and 6s, you can definitely win in  2017 and 2018...   And let's not forget that the guy is a half a UCL or another PED positive from giving the Twins nothing...

 

If I could get a couple of good young arms, one of which I could plug into the rotation right away, I'd consider making the trade.

 

But why would a team who had an ML ready good young arm want to trade that away when they could plug that arm into the rotation? 

 

If we want ML ready pitching, Dozier, Grossman, or Kintzler are likely the guys to get it. Don't get me wrong, I'd trade ESan for the right offer, I just don't see him bringing in the pitching we need.

[Oxtung]

I get why everybody is looking to get pitching back but I think the organization is going to have a real dearth of position players over the next several years too. Perhaps it's even worse than the pitching at this point in the minors for the next several seasons.

 

First and foremost there is Gordon which I think everyone is pretty happy about, though I have some concerns about what his numbers look like when his .400 BABIP normalizes a bit, but he is still a potential average to above average player.

 

After that though nobody above low A projects to be an everyday player. Granite, wade, Garver, Vielma might be a nice reserve but they aren't going to be an impact player. Even at low A you have to really squint to see Blankenhorn or Diaz as anything more than average player at their likely positions.

 

It's not until you get down to Rookie ball before you get to the next set of players whom you could say have a real shot at being an above average player. But they have a good 4ish years to go before they are impacting the Twins.

 

I intentionally left Rooker off the list because we know very little about his future at this point. There is certainly potential there but he could just as easily wind up Palka or ABW3.

 

Right now the Twins offense is average and we hope Buxton turns it around and Polanco figures somethings out. On the other hand though Mauer will be leaving, and as much as people like to rip him he is basically a league average bat. Many of you want to trade Dozier, another average bat. Also many are advocating trading one of Buxton/Rosario/Kepler. I just don't see the bats to replace these guys let alone provide reinforcements in future years or provide a jolt to the lineup with a mid season call up in the coming years.

 

I look at the minors and see Romero, Gonsalves and Thorpe(any word on his velocity since his return?) as potential average to above average pitchers with a bunch of bullpen arms too but the only hitting reinforcement appears to be Gordon. That worries me. I wouldn't narrow my returns to just pitchers. We need both IMO.

[old nurse]

 

I didn't minimize anything. I stated facts. That team would not be in the postseason today and they only had to win 8 games (with a home field advantage) to become World Champions. This year's team is highly unlikely to win its division, meaning they would have to win 12 games (without home field advantage) against better teams than they faced 30 years ago.

The games were played, the team won.  That is fact. Anything else on the 1987 is opinion.  In regards to the current team, there is not that much difference between the standings of the WC and Cleveland for wining percentage over the next 70 games to say the team is out of one or the other race. With varying degrees 3 starters and a few relievers have to get their fecal matter together for this team  to get to the playoffs.  Comparing and contrasting how the teams would do in the playoffs in different eras is also a pointless. If Juan Bernguer had 4-5 days rest between starts and needed to only pitch 5+  innings a game he could have been that third srart and had been dominating. The knowledge of steroids is better, Carlton could have recaptured enough youth.  All conjecture.  If today's pitcher had the rubber arms of a bygone era and pitched a lot  more pitches a game Hector Santiago would be a better pitcher. Maybe under Dick Such Meyer would have become a stud like Viola.   One can make a case for anything for what wants to believe in the baseball world.

[old nurse]

 

You're making a huge assumption that some GM out there would know as much as we do here on TD.

I am sure that all that AJ Preller knows comes from reading the fans at Twins Daily

[h2oface]

 

I'm curious to see what Kansas City does with their impending free agents - buy because this is their last shot in a while or sell to regroup faster.  I think the Twins should counter whatever they do with the opposite.

 

Of course the Astros Yankees and Dodgers series might make it all moot with Gibby and Duffey and crew.

 

My bet is the Royals are going to continue coming on and take the Central, and they are going to go all in and give it one last shot with their core, regardless of whether they lose them or not.

Edited July 11, 2017 by h2oface

[spinowner]

 

I don't understand why "every season" doesn't include this season. Or the next four, for that matter.
 

It does. But what about last year? By this reasoning shouldn't the team have traded all their minor league prospects to try to win it all? They probably could have done it, but they would have had to accept 100-loss seasons for the next 5-7 years. Say the Twins are playing a game that they want to win at all costs. Santana starts. He gives up two singles to start the game so Molitor pulls him and puts in Berrios. He gets out of that inning but gives up two singles to start the second so Mejía comes in. And so forth until every pitcher on the staff has worked. The Twins win the game but now their pitching staff is totally screwed up and they lose the next four games because of it. Is that a good approach? Of course not. This is what I'm saying. It takes time to build an organization. It's not just about this year's major league record. It's about the whole organization being in a position to support a winning major league team every season. *Every* season. We're not there now but with good decisions and a little bit of luck we can be there in a few years.

Edited July 11, 2017 by spinowner

[Otto von Ballpark]

Because even despite the FIP/ERA disparity Santana is the best starting pitcher you can afford to trade for at the deadline?

  

Because at times Santana can pitch like an ace and he only has one guaranteed year left on his contract after 2017.  He would probably be cheaper to get than a guy 10 years younger than himself and will still be an upgrade for about every team out there.

 

But if the reason other teams would trade for Santana now is because he's cheaper, doesn't that also mean the Twins would get a lower return?

 

The question isn't, will other yes want Santana? It is, will other teams want Santana at a price that makes it worthwhile for the Twins to move him? Given the way his season has trended, and that the Twins themselves are fringe contenders this year, that seems doubtful.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Because at times Santana can pitch like an ace and he only has one guaranteed year left on his contract after 2017.  He would probably be cheaper to get than a guy 10 years younger than himself and will still be an upgrade for about every team out there.  

 

 

One could use that exact same argument to decide to KEEP Santana.  He can pitch like an ace, he's an upgrade over literally anything the Twins have and he's relatively inexpensive.

 

People keep acting like the Twins are going to get some massive haul for Ervin.  I don't see it for many of the reasons that have been mentioned.  Look at what the Twins got for the other Santana.  He was at the top of his game and in his prime.  They got one guy who's done anything and he has been basically a replacement level player for all but two seasons of his 10 year career.

Edited July 11, 2017 by yarnivek1972