Article: Reflecting On The Draft 1 Month Later

[DocBauer]

The absolute truth is neither the Twins, nor any team, will have any real idea if their draft was successful for 3-5 years. But despite being a bit confused and flummoxed initially by the early portion if the draft, I'm pretty much on board with how it turned out.

 

1] In a non-consensus top pick draft, the Twins drafted the top HS position player in the draft. He was a consensus top 4-5 player with great talent, potential and makeup. The Twins weren't cheap or "saved money". They "saved money" on a top prospect selection to use elsewhere.

 

2] Whether or not you like the overall strategy, this new FO HAD a plan and a strategy to implement and they DID. Kudos for having and doing so.

 

3] The "experts" in the tremendous crap shoot that is the baseball draft laud the talent brought on board.

 

At this point, I am appeased and very hopeful.

[Twinsoholic]

Jeremy,

 

Did the Twins sign any one of their 3 unsigned picks between rounds 11 and 20?

 

[terrydactyls]

I have no quarrel with the idea they were executing a specific plan. I just take issue with the assertion that drafting Lewis was integral to that plan.

 

It appears that you are disagreeing with yourself. You accept that they were executing a specific plan but then say you don't think Lewis was "integral" to the plan. I would suggest that if they were executing a plan, then the first overall pick is the very cornerstone of the plan.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It appears that you are disagreeing with yourself. You accept that they were executing a specific plan but then say you don't think Lewis was "integral" to the plan. I would suggest that if they were executing a plan, then the first overall pick is the very cornerstone of the plan.

Sorry if I wasn't clear -- I am objecting to the idea that Lewis's bonus was critical to the rest of the plan. Thought that was clear from the article and context of previous posts.

 

I have deleted and reposted it, for clarity.

Edited July 8, 2017 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

I have no quarrel with the idea they were executing a specific plan. I just take issue with the assertion that Lewis's bonus was integral to the rest of the plan.

[twinsfanstreif]

The Ray's did not sign their Supplimental first round pick after giving way over slot to McKay and their 2nd rounder. They saved money from that point but doing some rough math they have to be pretty close to over the 5% max or right on it. Also there's debate as to whether or not they will receive a pick next year for not signing him or if he will just become a FA. Very interesting

[twinsfanstreif]

I have no quarrel with the idea they were executing a specific plan. I just take issue with the assertion that Lewis's bonus was integral to the rest of the plan.

 

Another thing to note is that they don't know who is gonna fall and how much money they are gonna need. Drafting Lewis first gave them the flexibility to go after guys like Bechtold, De La Torre, and Widell. Sure they could've still gotten Enlow with a McKay or Wright but they probably wouldn't have taken a shot on those guys where they did. It also may have not been known how much all of these guys would sign for. It was probably more of a guesstimate. It's really easy to pick this apart in hindsight but a draft is pretty complicated to execute at the time and stay within your bonus pool

[h2oface]

It always seems like a snub to me to be asked, after or before drafted, to not take the money assigned to the slot. What an uncomfortable position to put a kid in. "We love you, but not at what the rest of the league thinks you should be paid, but we still really really really want you, we just want to give your money to someone else, because we really want them to feel welcome". It seems that takes a lot of lying to oneself just to be a number one choice, even though you really aren't worth it to the people who drafted you. Spin it all you like about the strategy, if you are the talent, you have been snubbed. "Show me the Money". Seems a horrible way to start a relationship off with a player you want to be a future face of your organization.

 

 

[Brandon]

Didnt the Twins draft some high upside guys in the late rounds in case of emergency? If so i would like to see if the Twins offered one of them 600k or so to see if they sign.

[Mr. Brooks]

It always seems like a snub to me to be asked, after or before drafted, to not take the money assigned to the slot. What an uncomfortable position to put a kid in. "We love you, but not at what the rest of the league thinks you should be paid, but we still really really really want you, we just want to give your money to someone else, because we really want them to feel welcome". It seems that takes a lot of lying to oneself just to be a number one choice, even though you really aren't worth it to the people who drafted you. Spin it all you like about the strategy, if you are the talent, you have been snubbed. "Show me the Money". Seems a horrible way to start a relationship off with a player you want to be a future face of your organization.

You are actually paying them MORE than what the league values them at, not less, because you are drafting them higher than they would have otherwise gone.

That isn't a snub at all.

[Rhino and Compass]

I just think this FO is very tight lipped, which is why this came out of left field. Going for the top position prospect (i.e. investing a lot in a player much less likely to get significantly injured on the way up) and then distributing money in order to create pitching prospect depth makes so much more sense to me. Now it just comes down to the question of whether or not their developmental prowess is as good as advertised. 

[h2oface]

 

You are actually paying them MORE than what the league values them at, not less, because you are drafting them higher than they would have otherwise gone.
That isn't a snub at all.

 

Great spin! I commend you! Except the Twins said that he was their man all year (secretly as they told us later).... except they tried to negotiate with McKay first. Go figure. So, you tell him you are number 1, but not really? Hey, Royce is our man now. And for a bunch of dough LESS than slot value.

Edited July 10, 2017 by h2oface

[drivlikejehu]

Baseball is a business, everyone in the game understands that. Negotiations are part of the game. There's really nothing more to it than that.

[Old Twins Cap]

Think about it:

 

You got three top pitchers at the top of the draft.

 

Odds are, one will end up being an Ace or near Ace.

 

One will be a decent starting pitcher for a number of years, maybe a 3 or 4.

 

The other one will be a bust, or at least significantly underperform.

 

Do you want to put all your eggs into sorting out which is which?

 

Or, do you take the TOP position player, with speed, and use the savings to draft two top prep hurlers who may be the equal or better as anything available in this draft/

 

Twins done well in my estimate.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Or, do you take the TOP position player, with speed, and use the savings to draft two top prep hurlers who may be the equal or better as anything available in this draft/

 

Twins done well in my estimate.

Except it is quite possible they didn't ultimately need the savings to do the rest of that plan.

 

I have no issue with the Lewis pick, but I don't think we can really give them extra credit for it.

[mudcat14]

 

Sure, but since we had the top pick, we also had an ability to negotiate (in specifics) and commit early to a selection, a resource that no other team had.   It appears we chose to spend that resource on Lewis, and it may have been as much of a factor in his quick signing as anything else.

 

According to Lewis, he was shocked when he heard his name first.  Now it's possible the Twins had an agreement in place with his agent, but wouldn't he have cleared it with Lewis and his family first?  

[Han Joelo]

Think about it:

 

You got three top pitchers at the top of the draft.

 

Odds are, one will end up being an Ace or near Ace.

 

One will be a decent starting pitcher for a number of years, maybe a 3 or 4.

 

The other one will be a bust, or at least significantly underperform.

 

Do you want to put all your eggs into sorting out which is which?

 

Or, do you take the TOP position player, with speed, and use the savings to draft two top prep hurlers who may be the equal or better as anything available in this draft/

 

Twins done well in my estimate.

I agree with the sentiment, but I think you've maybe way overestimated the positive outcomes, especially with this draft.

 

I'm grateful Lewis has gotten off to a strong start.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

According to Lewis, he was shocked when he heard his name first.  Now it's possible the Twins had an agreement in place with his agent, but wouldn't he have cleared it with Lewis and his family first?  

I suspect that a lot of these guys just leave most of it to the agent.  That's what they are paid for, right?  If the agent knows the parameters under which the player would sign at various slots, they don't really need to communicate much else until it's time to sign.

 

And it is possible/probable the Twins had something in place with Lewis and his agent IF they picked him #1, but hadn't fully committed to doing that yet.  And back to my original point, it was easier for the Twins to do that at #1 than the teams behind them doing it.  Put another way, I suspect Lewis helped set the market for the following picks.

 

Regarding Lewis's "shock", I suspect it was figurative/exaggerated/coming from a "long view perspective" if that makes sense.  I mean, it was widely reported in the day leading up to the draft that Lewis was in the running for #1.  Even if he wasn't entirely sure, I doubt he was actually surprised by the outcome, other than "still can't believe it" kind of shock.  I'm sure Oscar winners often express similar sentiments -- but they were already one of only 5 nominees for the award...

Edited July 10, 2017 by spycake

[gunnarthor]

 

Except it is quite possible they didn't ultimately need the savings to do the rest of that plan.

I have no issue with the Lewis pick, but I don't think we can really give them extra credit for it.

I think you're over thinking this. Teams probably don't have a #1, #2 etc list like BA has. They have tiers. The Twins probably had 4-5 guys in the #1 pick tier based on ability. They then negotiated with those guys. Greene, Wright and McKay all said they'd need 7m or more. Lewis said he'd take 6.7m. The Twins didn't see any major difference in any of them so they went with Lewis who gave them more flexibility with the rest of their draft.

 

All the major draft sights - BA, pipeline, Klaw - have said that Lewis' tools are worthy of the #1 pick so it's not like the Twins sacrificed talent at the top. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think you're over thinking this. Teams probably don't have a #1, #2 etc list like BA has. They have tiers. The Twins probably had 4-5 guys in the #1 pick tier based on ability. They then negotiated with those guys. Greene, Wright and McKay all said they'd need 7m or more. Lewis said he'd take 6.7m. The Twins didn't see any major difference in any of them so they went with Lewis who gave them more flexibility with the rest of their draft.

 

All the major draft sights - BA, pipeline, Klaw - have said that Lewis' tools are worthy of the #1 pick so it's not like the Twins sacrificed talent at the top. 

How is that me overthinking it?  I know Lewis was included in the top group of draft prospects, and signed quickly for a comparable bonus to the others.  If anything, claiming Lewis's bonus was critical to the rest of our draft strategy seems like it is "over thinking it".  Assuming we didn't touch our ~$700k overage allotment, we didn't ultimately need/use the modest savings.  He was just a straight up #1 pick.

Edited July 10, 2017 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

If you take a look at the 2012-2016 drafts, you will see some real examples of saving money in the top spot to spend elsewhere.  The slot values changed for 2017 which made that strategy much more difficult, so I'm absolutely not criticizing the Twins for not doing it.  My point is, it wasn't expected to happen, and given what we know, it didn't really happen.  Lewis was pretty much a straight up #1 pick, took a largely straight up #1 bonus, and he looks like a perfectly fine selection.

 

On the flip side, I also obviously disagree with the notion that the Twins were cheap in this draft.  They spent approximately the same as anyone else in that position.

 

So ultimately, the Twins don't deserve any early extra credit or criticism for draft strategy here.

[TRex]

 

How is that me overthinking it?  I know Lewis was included in the top group of draft prospects, and signed quickly for a comparable bonus to the others.  If anything, claiming Lewis's bonus was critical to the rest of our draft strategy seems like it is "over thinking it".  Assuming we didn't touch our ~$700k overage allotment, we didn't ultimately need/use the modest savings.  He was just a straight up #1 pick.

I meant to post this earlier, but since the discussion continues...

 

I think it is a non sequitur to say that the Twins could have had Greene, McKay or Wright for the same bonus they ended up with at their lower rounds ($7.23 million, $7.01 million, and $7 million). I am sure that their agents had discussed signing bonuses (or ranges) with the respective teams, so I don't see why, if Greene's agent knows he can get over $7.2 million at #2, why would he not ask for more to be #1? I know I sure would!

[Steve Lein]

 

If they spent their whole pool, they still may have left money on the table. Teams can exceed their pool by up to 5% and only pay a tax on the overage with no future penalty. For the Twins, that would be about $700k, and would have more than covered the bonus difference between Lewis and anyone else in this draft.

 

This is true. However, it's not how teams actually treat it.

 

In this draft pool era, only around half of all pools for all 30 teams have ever been exceeded. Teams are avoiding the tax.

[gunnarthor]

The Twins could have gone over by 5% but they'd also pay a 75% luxury tax on that amount so to go over by 700k would actually cost the Pohlads a bit over 1.2m. Seems dubious to expect this ownership group to pay a tax they don't have to pay.

[big dog]

As the discussions about who was first kept going, I found myself more and more convinced that the right answer was "not a pitcher".  I was surprised but not unhappy that they took the HS field player, who I think may not have the highest possible upside of all picks (Greene, no doubt), but also has the highest likely floor (very low chance of career-ending injury at very early age) and really good tools.  Tyler Jay's injury, the latest in a long line of top pitching picks who have had similar results, just makes me more convinced.

 

Cost savings or not, I like the pick.  And I do think they saved some money by drafting a player higher than he expected and paying him less than slot, spreading it around to get more signings from better players than otherwise would have happened.  Maybe it could have worked out better, but my guess is that five years from now this is going to look like the best Twins draft in quite a while.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I meant to post this earlier, but since the discussion continues...

 

I think it is a non sequitur to say that the Twins could have had Greene, McKay or Wright for the same bonus they ended up with at their lower rounds ($7.23 million, $7.01 million, and $7 million). I am sure that their agents had discussed signing bonuses (or ranges) with the respective teams, so I don't see why, if Greene's agent knows he can get over $7.2 million at #2, why would he not ask for more to be #1? I know I sure would!

But on the flip side, Greene didn't necessarily know yet he could get $7.2 mil at #2.  That was in part set by the Twins signing Lewis for $6.7.  Let's not forget, when Lewis signed, it was a record bonus for the bonus pool era (2012-present).  Hypothetically, if the Twins had managed to sign Lewis for Swanson ($6.5) or Moniak ($6.1) money, that would have probably wiped off a few hundred K from the other guys too.

 

With the presence of Lewis, Greene, Gore, McKay, and Wright bunched together in that top group, I don't think any one of them could have drawn a hard line in negotiations at #1 at $7.5+ mil.  By the time they get to #3, they can't realistically do better than $7 mil, and at least 3 guys from that group were going to drop to #3 or lower. More likely, they could all argue they deserve approximately the same bonus regardless of draft position (which appears to be what happened).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is true. However, it's not how teams actually treat it.

 

In this draft pool era, only around half of all pools for all 30 teams have ever been exceeded. Teams are avoiding the tax.

Thanks for the info.  (Do you have a cite? Just curious, I don't doubt it's true.)

 

I have no doubt teams prefer to avoid the tax, but that doesn't make the modest Lewis savings more significant.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins could have gone over by 5% but they'd also pay a 75% luxury tax on that amount so to go over by 700k would actually cost the Pohlads a bit over 1.2m. Seems dubious to expect this ownership group to pay a tax they don't have to pay.

Again, not expecting them to pay it.  By all accounts, they got the guys they wanted and didn't pay the tax. Good for them.

 

But I'm not going to also give them bonus points for saving a bit on Lewis's bonus, as compared to Greene/McKay/Wright.  The modest amount saved really didn't have any impact on the rest of their draft, other than avoiding the tax or maybe giving them an opportunity (ultimately unused?) to sign an extra guy after round 10.

 

I have no quarrel with this Twins draft, but people keep trying to shoehorn it into the Correa template.  This is much closer to a standard draft than that (in part by the new slot values, but also in part due to Lewis's standing among draft prospects), and there is nothing wrong with that.

[howieramone2]

 

None of them signed for that much more than Lewis, ~$300k (pending the announcement on Greene).  Last I read, I think we spent our entire pool, but we could have easily gone that much over and just paid a tax with no other penalties.  Selecting someone other than Lewis wouldn't have necessarily affected the rest of our draft strategy at all.

 

I'll admit it's nice to see Lewis signed and starting well, but there isn't too much to analyze here yet.  It will all come down to performance and results, and it's just far too early to make any comparison there.

I would say a 99% chance it would have affected the rest of our draft strategy.

[Steve Lein]

 

Thanks for the info.  (Do you have a cite? Just curious, I don't doubt it's true.)

 

I have no doubt teams prefer to avoid the tax, but that doesn't make the modest Lewis savings more significant.

 

In the last five years (not including 2017), 74 of the 150 possible pools paid a tax. 

 

It is possible that it is trending the other way though now. 23 of 30 teams did in 2016. Nobody has exceeded by more than 5% yet.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/223686792/2017-mlb-draft-bonus-pools-pick-values/