Article: Reflecting On The Draft 1 Month Later

[Nick Nelson]

Nearly one month after the Minnesota Twins surprisingly selected Royce Lewis with the No. 1 pick in the MLB Draft, their decision has come into clearer focus... and is only looking better with hindsight.Sure, it helps that Lewis has been tearing it up since joining the pro ranks, with a .303/.395/.515 slash line through eight games in the Gulf Coast League. But in addition to looking at who the Twins did pick, it is interesting to look at who they didn't pick.

 

Whereas Lewis signed for a $6.725 million bonus, about $1 million below the slot for their top selection, the other three candidates the Twins were weighing have proven significantly more costly.

 

Around the time of the draft, reports suggested that Minnesota soured on Brendan McKay because they didn't like his asking price. As it turns out, McKay signed with Tampa for $7,007,500 -- the highest bonus ever since MLB's new slot system was implemented in 2012. He narrowly edged Kyle Wright, whose $7 million pact with Atlanta briefly held that same distinction.

 

Meanwhile, as the signing deadline bears down (4 PM Friday), the Reds still have not reached agreement with No. 2 pick Hunter Greene, and while it is expected to get done, his deal could surpass both McKay and Wright.

 

Now, the point here isn't that the Twins could not have afforded any of these three, but doing so would have meant committing unprecedented money to players they never seemed all that sold on. Instead, by opting for Lewis, they pocketed extra cash that they were able to spread to later picks, and it sure looks like they still found themselves a hell of a player.

 

The new front office was under the microscope for its first draft -- with good reason, given the immense stakes -- and so far all signs reflect positively upon their decision-making. But of course, it will be a long while before we can form any real conclusions about the effectiveness of their approach.

 

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[mazeville]

I admit I know nothing about any of these players, other than what I've read leading up to the draft. But based on all of that, I loved this draft. There was no Bryce Harper-level player available. So get someone you really like who is cheaper and use the extra money to get better players later. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Great pick at #1. Keep drafting those SS's.

[twinsfanstreif]

I loved the draft at the time (I wanted either Gore or Lewis, not a fan of McKay) and it's looking even better today. Lewis is playing well and although we haven't seen any of the high drafted pitchers yet our other picks have also been faring well so far. Even some of our senior money saving guys and late round signings have been playing well too! While this means little right now it's definitely a good sign. It kind of hurts that we could have drafted Carlson and Enlow and theoretically signed the both of them while paying the overage tax (this strategy may have also cost us Widell, Bechfield, or De La Torre) but Leach is no slouch either, he could end up being a good one and they obviously liked him more. Ultimately people were blind side by the Lewis pick and the passing of Carlson but I think in time it will look like the right decision

[magiklair]

Small sample size..

[ThejacKmp]

 

Small sample size..

 

I think the point of the article is that three of the other guys talked about at #1 all demanded big money, significantly changing the strategy those teams could use signing other players.

 

That isn't a small sample size thing, that's reality. The author acknowledges the stats include only eight games and its important to note those are thrown as in an aside - "Sure the stats are nice but the dollars and cents show the sense of the Twins draft".

 

Not sure SSS fits.

[Comrade Bork]

Keep mashing 'em Rooker!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the point of the article is that three of the other guys talked about at #1 all demanded big money, significantly changing the strategy those teams could use signing other players.

None of them signed for that much more than Lewis, ~$300k (pending the announcement on Greene).  Last I read, I think we spent our entire pool, but we could have easily gone that much over and just paid a tax with no other penalties.  Selecting someone other than Lewis wouldn't have necessarily affected the rest of our draft strategy at all.

 

I'll admit it's nice to see Lewis signed and starting well, but there isn't too much to analyze here yet.  It will all come down to performance and results, and it's just far too early to make any comparison there.

[Nick Nelson]

 

None of them signed for that much more than Lewis, ~$300k (pending the announcement on Greene).  Last I read, I think we spent our entire pool, but we could have easily gone that much over and just paid a tax with no other penalties.  Selecting someone other than Lewis wouldn't have necessarily affected the rest of our draft strategy at all.

I'm not sure it's a given they would've signed for the same amounts if drafted by a team with a higher slot. The bottom line is that all these guys were driving hard bargains (and Greene still is) while Lewis inked right away at a reasonable figure.

[Rosterman]

I love the concept of baseball payrolls. You have $103 million for the 40-man roster. Some $17 million for 40-or-so drafted players, and maybe spend $2.-3 million on 140 guys to play in the minor leagues.

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

We are all in a wait and see mode with what these players can deliver.

I'd have still liked MacKenzie Gore at #1 (signed for $6.7M), but I am an Old Goat, not a scout.

Good luck to all our new organization members!

[drjim]

It was a good draft, good strategy, good execution. But it absolutely (and rightly) be judged on how Lewis does relative to the 4 pitchers.

 

Lewis is probably the "safest" of the 5 and most likely to return value, but 1 or 2 of those pitchers will likely be very solid. Just hard to know which ones.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not sure it's a given they would've signed for the same amounts if drafted by a team with a higher slot. The bottom line is that all these guys were driving hard bargains (and Greene still is) while Lewis inked right away at a reasonable figure.

Sure, but since we had the top pick, we also had an ability to negotiate (in specifics) and commit early to a selection, a resource that no other team had.   It appears we chose to spend that resource on Lewis, and it may have been as much of a factor in his quick signing as anything else.  But had we wanted to, it's possible we could have used that advantage to lock in another player instead.  Crediting them for getting the player they wanted AND getting him to sign a little cheaper/earlier than the following picks could be doing a bit of double-counting -- one of those factors probably followed from the other.

 

In any case, it's way too early for there to be any meaningful "bottom line" to this draft.  That will only come after these guys actually play in the pros for awhile.

[Han Joelo]

Has Wright or McKau even played yet? At any rate, Jay's injury and shelving, which likely would've happened starting or relieving, is another reminder of the volatility of drafting pitchers high.

[Shaitan]

I'm curious how often the #1 pick goes to a newly hired GM. I'd guess fairly often.

[Old Twins Cap]

I don't think it's accurate to say Twins were "not sold" on the three top pitchers.

 

They just didn't want to put all their eggs in that basket and chose instead to spread the risk.

[laloesch]

Still think we should have taken one of the four pitchers with the first pick and possibly another with the supplemental, but hey it's not my team to run. Have warmed up a bit on the Lewis and Rooker picks.  

 

Maybe Lewis turns out to be a great great shortstop. Now we have an abundance of potential SS and trade bait in Lewis, Gordon, Vielma, Javier and Marte.    

 

That said, I'm concerned that a consensus has developed that its simply too risky to use high 1st round draft picks on college level starters or high school prep pitchers with ace potential even when a team is so devoid of pitching talent.  

[caninatl04]

Per the Strib, there are still 3 unsigned Top 20 rounds Twins' draft picks. Any money left for them? Will they be signed?

[Darius]

I raised an eyebrow after the second round. The later you wait to make your "overslot pick," the less likely you are to find a quality guy worth punting on certain guys early in the draft process.

 

The Enlow pick made me feel a lot better.

 

It turned out well because they signed everyone they wanted (needed) to. I like to think it's because they had solid intel in place. But, if they couldn't sign Leach or Enlow, for example, it would've hurt. Let's call it net present value of draft picks. I'd rather allocate more to the first pick than defer a pick.

 

Now, I absolutely love the draft.

[Brandon]

So what was the result of who all signed and for how much? Never saw the final tally.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Greene signed today for $7.23 mil.

[Dantes929]

What happens if you pick someone with the #1 overall and you can't sign him?    Do you just lose him and the pick?

[Minnesotatwins005]

What happens if you pick someone with the #1 overall and you can't sign him?    Do you just lose him and the pick?

 

I believe you get a compensation pick the following draft. Not sure exactly where it is but the Astros had this happen a few years ago with Aiken. They ended up getting the 2nd overall pick in the draft the following year, along with their other first round pick.

[notoriousgod71]

They saved soooooooo much money by not taking Greene! Good job, Twins!

[cjj td]

 

They saved soooooooo much money by not taking Greene! Good job, Twins!

 

I'm pretty sure this is sarcasm, but in reality the twins didn't save any money.  They spent all the money they could.  They just gave it too other draft picks instead of the #1 pick.

[MN_ExPat]

 

So what was the result of who all signed and for how much? Never saw the final tally.

 

Here's the link for the Twins Draft picks

 

http://puckettspond.com/2017/06/26/minnesota-twins-2017-mlb-draft-picks-first-taste-milb/

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm pretty sure this is sarcasm, but in reality the twins didn't save any money. They spent all the money they could. They just gave it too other draft picks instead of the #1 pick.

If they spent their whole pool, they still may have left money on the table. Teams can exceed their pool by up to 5% and only pay a tax on the overage with no future penalty. For the Twins, that would be about $700k, and would have more than covered the bonus difference between Lewis and anyone else in this draft.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So what was the result of who all signed and for how much? Never saw the final tally.

This article says we had $66k left, and 3 players unsigned between rounds 11 and 20:

 

http://m.startribune.com/twins-shift-draft-money-allotment-to-help-sign-more-players/432574743/?section=sports%2Ftwins

[cjj td]

To insinuate that the twins were simply being cheap versus trying to execute a specific plan is a little disingenuous I believe.  Not that they have never been (probably rightly) accused of being cheap in the past.  I just don't think this is an obvious example of it.  

 

So it appears they left a total of about 766,000 on the table (assuming no one was signed at the deadline).  I don't doubt for a second they were trying to spend some of that to try to sign some more lower round picks.

 

But that's just like my opinion man.

 

 

 

Edited July 7, 2017 by cjj td

[sftwinsfan]

I know a lot of people have the opposite opinion and I'm no expert but I'm still not thrilled with it.  To me, if Lewis was #1 on their board, they don't get turned down by another player at basically the same bonus before selecting him.  Just looking at the history of players selected at the top of the draft vs players selected at the bottom of the first round and below, it's not worth it to play games with that top pick.  Hopefully they hit on one or more of those guys picked afterwards like they did on Berrios, but history shows there's a real good chance we'll never hear from them again beyond the minor league reports or as fringe major leaguers.  I like Enlow at #76, but they could have just selected him at #35 or #37.  I think they reached at both #35 and #37.  

 

I think Lewis is a good prospect, and I really hope he turns out great.  With him I worry about the offensive side.  So far he's started out ok, but he's also in the GCL. I just wouldn't take a guy that high based mostly of tools.  I would never have taken Buxton back in '12 at #2 either.