Article: Two Of Us

[Thrylos]

 

While we would all agree that a top 20 overall pitching prospect that is near Major league ready is ideal, we would have to give up Dozier to get that done. Prospect for prospect deals are rarely done. By doing that, then we are conceding completely in 2017. Beating the Astros is a long-shot, no one will disagree with you, but not getting to the playoffs at all, gives you NO shot. Finding a veteran arm, even a rental, for a mid 20s prospect is a step in the right direction of actually making the parent club better. Getting a 2 1/2 year controllable player for a fair price (likely a top ten prospect or two in the teens) is a very valuable piece too. It may be a small gain, but how much different would this team look with them in our bullpen all year vs Breslow and Belisle? There'd likely be 3-4 games more in the W column.

 

a.  Giving up Dozier is not a bad thing necessary.  Not sure that Gordon as a replacement will not put better numbers overall that Dozier's league average 101 OPS+ and below league average -2.5 UZR

b.  Getting to the post season as a wild card team without any plan for long term winning it all will give you about as much possibility of wining as practically not being there.  Ask the Twins of the 00s if you don't believe me.  Been there done that, should learn something from it.

c. One bullpen arm, even though better than no arm, would not close all of the Twins holes towards getting to the postseason and going far in it.  And potentially that single arm could be Curtiss, Bard, Reed etc.

d. By doing a half-rear end buyer posturing, also will be conceding 2017 but would also have the team miss the opportunity of selling high on older players and building for 2018.  If between them Santana, Kintzler, Dozier, Gimenez etc etc could bring an MLB-ready arm that can be plugged in behind Berrios, a corner OF type of player who would be MLB-ready and a late inning bullpen prospect, the Twins will be better in 2018 (esp. if they go after a young SP free agent like Pineda) and might even be better in 2017 getting youth in those positions...

 

 

Edited July 6, 2017 by Thrylos

[nicksaviking]

 

It's weird...many of the same posters who daily lament the state of the bullpen are the same ones who argue against the Twins taking actual steps to improve it.

"Don't trade...wait for magical internal improvement" isn't a very good plan.

 

I'd rather buy them in the off season if this team just cannot develop their own. Even the most expensive of relievers is still affordable to the Twins. Can't say that about the best starting pitchers or position players.

 

Relievers are so combustible I'd not want to trade off top 5 organizational talent for a guy just as likely to bust as to contribute. I'm about as far away from trusting a pitcher coming from San Diego as I am from trusting one straight out of Junior College.

[Jham]

I'm always for adding talent. Of the internal candidates, do we expect any of them to be all star relievers? That's what we'd trading for. If Neshek is cheap, he may be willing to sign an extension for cheap to finish his career here. Preferably I'd like a longer look at Rosario, Buesenitz, and Hildenberger before trading for help. We're doing that a bit. So far the results are fairly uninspiring which makes me wonder about Melo, Curtis, Reed, etc. About their potential impact vs rearranging the prospect deck chairs. Seems like we're on that path. I assume we'll look to help the pen here after the break. I'd also maybe shop Kintzler and just see what he could get.

[Dantes929]

"b.Getting to the post season as a wild card team without any plan for long term winning it all will give you about as much possibility of wining as practically not being there.Ask the Twins of the 00s if you don't believe me.Been there done that, should learn something from it."

 

Twins of the 00's never got there as a wild card team, had MVP's, Cy Young's and Relief Pitchers of the Year that simply didn't get the job done.    The fact that they didn't get the job done doesn't mean that they couldn't have gotten the job done.   Astros are a really good team but good starts from Santana and Berrios can defeat them just like getting good starts from Blyleven and Viola did the Tigers.    Ask the 2015 Royals if getting in as a wild card team was practically the same as not being there.    I have no problem getting better by getting a good relief pitcher depending on what is given up, as always.  

 

"c. One bullpen arm, even though better than no arm, would not close all of the Twins holes towards getting to the postseason and going far in it.And potentially that single arm could be Curtiss, Bard, Reed etc."

Ok, that one really lost me.   One bullpen arm does not close all the holes but potentially Curtiss, Bard, etc could be that single arm?    Getting Hand should not block any or all of those guys from succeeding and getting Hand along with one or even two of those guys stepping up turns our bullpen depth from a weakness to a strength.   KC got to one and won another WS with weak rotations, holes in the lineup and suspect starting pitching.    Not the formula I would treat as a blueprint of success but getting a good reliever gets us closer to an ideal blueprint not farther away from it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd rather buy them in the off season if this team just cannot develop their own. Even the most expensive of relievers is still affordable to the Twins. Can't say that about the best starting pitchers or position players.

 

Yup. Still can't believe that 4 years of Andrew Miller cost less than the 3 year Phil Hughes extension...

[MN_ExPat]

I hate the SEC and ALL things ESPN Insider (completely irrational?   Yes, beyond a doubt).

 

Ok, that doesn't have ANYTHING to do with this article (nice right up btw Seth), I just wanted to get that out there.

 

IMHO (and yes I know that means absolutely nothing), trading for either of those players right now just doesn't seem to make good business sense.   I still love to watch Neshek pitch and love that another MN kid has made it good in the bigs, but...

I can't help but feel that even IF a trade for either Hand or Neshek worked out in the Twins favor in some way it would amount to the baseball equivalent of a Pyrrhic Victory.  How much would the minors and organization overall bleed to make that gain? 

 

Oh and btw... Granite? For those of us who have seen him play in person, yes he does have as much or even potentially more upside than Rosario.

 

 

[jimbo92107]

2017 is not THE YEAR. This season is still developmental, a year for testing guys from within the system. This is the year we found out that Berrios is for real, that Mejia is getting solid, that Grossman is actually a ballplayer, not just a walk machine. Let us not pretend that trading prospects for a couple good relievers will send this team to the Series. 

 

We have seen some mixed results from the minors this season, but some of them look very good. Busenitz and Hildenberger look good. Jorge looked surprisingly good. All these guys are young, under contract for several years, and appear talented. 2017 should be a season for many more of these tests. We should see Zach Granite, Mitch Garver, Gonsalves, Stewart, Jorge... maybe even a cuppa coffee for Gordon and Vielma. 

 

The Twins should tend their own garden, not grab other people's fruit. 

[DocBauer]

IMO...FWIW:

 

No to Neshak unless he may be open to re-signing and only cost a decent A level prospect. This team is still finishing a rebuild and there are young options close, or that should already be up.

 

Maybe on Hand. But the cost to get him shortens prospects close to contributing, and shortens trade options for a possible SP now or in the off season.

 

Maybe I'm just an optimist, but despite injuries and the such, there are several guys right now deserving of their shot to help this season and next while building for the future. Doesn't it make sense to promote and work with these guys? There is both FA and off season trades next off season if we just aren't happy with development. And again, if we're going to trade prospects, I'd rather go the SP route.

[drjim]

 

In a heart beat. The Padres would not do that though. 

 

Might be closer than you think. Hand is good but he's not a top tier reliever. Depends what they think of Stewart.

[Tomj14]

 

 

 

Oh and btw... Granite? For those of us who have seen him play in person, yes he does have as much or even potentially more upside than Rosario.

 I have to ask, if you believe Granite has more upside than Rosario (who is almost exactly 1 year older) why has Rosario been in the big league part of 3 years and Granite has spent only a few months in AAA? Rosario has a higher career OPS in the majors than Granite has in the minors?

This is coming from a guy that doesn't think Rosario is much more than a 4th outfielder (hoping I am wrong)

I love reading the comments on this site, but man do people have the back up QB syndrome.

 

[Tomj14]

I would gladly trade two minor league relief pitchers (or a future 4th or 5th starter, example Stewart) for a proven better than average major league relief pitcher with a few years of control.  My thought is that Hand on the Twins gives us 2+ years of a proven relief pitcher compared to a couple of mid 20s minor leagues. IMO

[sploorp]

 

I am all for improving, but you got to get a rotation arm at the Berrios level, a couple of arms better than Kintzler in the pen and at least one, maybe 2 bats in order to have a chance against the Astros in the post season.   If they are willing to do all of that, have at it.  I am just done with half rear end "improvement" jobs and living on a prayer for the rest

I think you're giving the Astros waaaaaay too much credit.  Look at what they've been padding out their record and building up their confidence with all season.  I mean, what if the Twins got to play the A's, Angels and Rangers as much as they do, I'll bet we'd look pretty studly too.  I also think back on that 11 run inning our bullpen served up last May and can't help but wonder how that series may have played out had the bullpen been better.

 

My next pet peeve, is how little respect most of us give to the other teams in the central, because, you know, the Twins are in the central and so the central must suck, right?  4 of the last 5 AL pennant winners came from the central and that includes 2015's world champs.  Cleveland has a 5-1 record against Houston and KC is 4-3.  That doesn't sound unbeatable to me.

 

I don't think this team is nearly as far away as most want to believe and I don't think they have to give up nearly as much as people want to believe to make a serious run at the post season.

 

I definitely think the team should be buyers (but not renters - except for Neshek because he was one of my favorite players when he was here).  They should be actively looking at cellar dweller rosters for players they think will help the team. They should especially be looking for salary dumps with multiple years left on their contracts.  Make a few low ball offers and see what happens.

 

Salary dump = don't wanter seller = real bargains.

 

The only thing I would be mad about Neshek and Hand would be if the team didn't at least try to make a trade.  Neshek sounds like a for sure salary dump and could probably be had for very little.

 

Just because other teams are interested doesn't mean they're offering anything worth while.  They're middle relievers for crying out loud!  Ain't nobody out there is going to be trading their best and brightest for a middle reliever.  Stop with the Gordon and Stewart talk already.  This is doable and the team shouldn't have to give up any player that fits into their immediate future to pull it off.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think you're giving the Astros waaaaaay too much credit. Look at what they've been padding out their record and building up their confidence with all season. I mean, what if the Twins got to play the A's, Angels and Rangers as much as they do, I'll bet we'd look pretty studly too. I also think back on that 11 run inning our bullpen served up last May and can't help but wonder how that series may have played out had the bullpen been better.

 

My next pet peeve, is how little respect most of us give to the other teams in the central, because, you know, the Twins are in the central and so the central must suck, right? 4 of the last 5 AL pennant winners came from the central and that includes 2015's world champs. Cleveland has a 5-1 record against Houston and KC is 4-3. That doesn't sound unbeatable to me.

 

I don't think this team is nearly as far away as most want to believe and I don't think they have to give up nearly as much as people want to believe to make a serious run at the post season.

 

I definitely think the team should be buyers (but not renters - except for Neshek because he was one of my favorite players when he was here). They should be actively looking at cellar dweller rosters for players they think will help the team. They should especially be looking for salary dumps with multiple years left on their contracts. Make a few low ball offers and see what happens.

 

Salary dump = don't wanter seller = real bargains.

 

The only thing I would be mad about Neshek and Hand would be if the team didn't at least try to make a trade. Neshek sounds like a for sure salary dump and could probably be had for very little.

 

Just because other teams are interested doesn't mean they're offering anything worth while. They're middle relievers for crying out loud! Ain't nobody out there is going to be trading their best and brightest for a middle reliever. Stop with the Gordon and Stewart talk already. This is doable and the team shouldn't have to give up any player that fits into their immediate future to pull it off.

Its not that complicated. No need to look at strength of schedule or padded record or any of that.

We played them head to head and it left zero doubt they were the much better team.

[sploorp]

 

Its not that complicated. No need to look at strength of schedule or padded record or any of that.
We played them head to head and it left zero doubt they were the much better team.

They were the better team after 6 innings.  Up to the 6th, not so much.  Before that you have a team that was leading or close to it in all three games.

 

Once again, you are giving the Astros way to much credit and not nearly enough to the Twins and the division they play in.

[Thrylos]

 

I think you're giving the Astros waaaaaay too much credit. 

 

Last time I checked, the Astros came to the Twins' home and swept them with the closest game being a 5 run deficit for the Twins.  That's about the credit I give them...

[Han Joelo]

Last time I checked, the Astros came to the Twins' home and swept them with the closest game being a 5 run deficit for the Twins. That's about the credit I give them...

So did the Indians. But the the Twins turned right back around and swept them on the road. Or something like that. The Twins aren't on the same level as the Astros, yet, but the Astros aren't some invincible super team.

[Don Walcott]

 

Its not that complicated. No need to look at strength of schedule or padded record or any of that.
We played them head to head and it left zero doubt they were the much better team.

So the Royals are better than the Astros.  We're 8-4 against the Royals . . . .

[Don Walcott]

I don't like the idea of trading anything if value for Neshek, but would be fine with it if they could get him at a steal and sign him up for next year.  Either way, I'd be fine with signing Neshek as a free agent this off-season.

[spinowner]

 

FO really hindered the season by not acquiring any high-caliber relievers. Not sure what they were thinking..

It's not so much what the FO was thinking. It's what the high-caliber relievers were thinking. And they were all thinking, "Twins? No thanks."

[spinowner]

 

The Twins aren't on the same level as the Astros, yet, but the Astros aren't some invincible super team.

They are very close to it. And they will probably pick up a couple pieces before the trading deadline to put the hammer down. At least I would if I were running that team. This is the year for them to go all in. And for that reason they would make a better offer than the Twins would for either of these pitchers. Or pretty much anyone else who is available. 

[Thrylos]

 

It's not so much what the FO was thinking. It's what the high-caliber relievers were thinking. And they were all thinking, "Twins? No thanks."

 

That may have anything to do with FA relievers but nothing to do with trades.  For example:  The Red Sox got Kimbrell \a couple seasons ago at his age 27 season for a song from the Padres.  He had no choice in the matter.

Edited July 6, 2017 by Thrylos

[spinowner]

 

That may have anything to do with FA relievers but nothing to do with trades.  For example:  The Red Sox got Kimbrell \a couple seasons ago at his age 27 season for a song from the Padres.  He had no choice in the matter.

Point well taken. So whom do you think we could have traded for and at what cost?

[Thrylos]

 

Point well taken. So whom do you think we could have traded for and at what cost?

 

Felipe Rivero, Addison Reed, Tyler Thornburg, for starters.  And that is not hindsight.  Go look at the relief leaders of 2016 for K-BB% and pick the non-closers.  Simple.  How much? I don't care, but even a couple of pen prospects would worth the cost.

[David HK]

Guy named Molitor we brought back did pretty well, too.

 

 

 

 

 

As a player.

[FargoFanMan]

If they are close at the deadline you gotta go for it. Too many times we waited in the 2000'sfor our star prospects to come up and we ended up with 2011 and we all know the story from there. I admire the Royals way of thinking. They have no farm system left but they have 2 WS appearances and one ring. And sure as hell theyre looking to buy right now when everyone thought they'd be sellers this season. Got to strike while the iron is hot. At least set yourself up for the near future. No need to sell the farm but you don't need every prospect either.

[DocBauer]

I'm not saying we don't have a chance. (I actually think we have a really nice club that is pretty close and going to keep getting better). And I'm not saying to not make a trade, especially if it's for the long term rather than the short.

 

But I find it interesting how conversation has shifted over the past few months...generally speaking...how this team wouldn't even finish .500 and we need to play the prospects. Now, this team is over .500 and playing the kids, and starting to play more of them. For example, Jorge getting a pair of starts, Hilgenberger, Busentiz and even Randy Rosario getting a first shot. ( Though we do need to see more of both Hilgenberger and Busentz). Reed and Curtiss are looking fantastic and should be in line for a look-see in the not too distant future.

 

So which is it? We were supposed to be bad so play the kids. Now we're pretty good so trade some of the kids for other veteran players? Again, not saying the Twins shouldn't make moves, or that it would be a mistake. It's just an interesting twist of expectation vs results for this season. Personally, I'd kind of like to see how the pen shakes out a little more with the kids before making a move. It bodes well, potentially, for now and the future both, while allowing us to hold on to prospects for maybe a SP trade at some point.

[GoGonzoJournal]

Had the Twins moved when I hinted both these guys should be acquired (a month ago to the day), they'd have a comfy lead in the AL Central. Can't say I'm interested in losing Nick Gordon, Zach Granite, or any arms that are nearly MLB-ready, but otherwise I'm game.

 

I don't see this team competing with its current bullpen, and we've seen what the starters look like against legitimate contenders like Boston. There are at least three moves that will need to be made to make this thing interesting.

 

I'd happily give up a top-10 and another prospect for Hand given his years of control. He's my favorite, and I think the Twins should get him whether they're buying or selling.

 

Neshek would be a cherry on top if the Twins are in it. Just think what it'd be like to have two guys you can rely on when the starters flame out, leaving runners on base in the sixth (or fifth), pushing Duffey and Rogers into lower-leverage situations. 

 

I like what I saw from Felix Jorge, but relying on him the rest of the way isn't ideal for a contender. You gotta do it sometime, though, right? I'd like to make Hector Santiago disappear (90-day DL) and give his spot to a legitimate third starter (Jake Odorizzi perhaps). Then Gibson and Jorge fill out the back end. 

 

Most interesting is the tough position in which Falvey and Levine find themselves in their first year on the job. I can't wait for the Trade Deadline to see whether they buy, sell, or try to do both.

 

Prediction: They'll make some "Terry Ryan" move for a reliever and hopefully not give up too much. Ervin stays because who the hell else is going to pitch all those innings? I think Escobar and Rosario will be shopped but won't draw a crowd. Could package them together for pitching and go with Granite and Polanco/Adrianza, but Escobar's versatility, bat, and charisma is something this team needs regardless of the standings. I wouldn't mind losing Rosario, but he won't get us much. Luckily the Twins have the prospects.

 

I'm predicting the Twins make multiple trades. That's right. Going out on a limb and making the over/under 1.5 and taking the over. I think Twins fans would scream bloody murder if the Falvey/Levine regime starts with a Terry Ryan Trade Deadline, and I'd like to think Falvey and Levine are better equipped with assets and intelligence to make the deadline work for them, regardless of the standings.

[drjim]

I'm not saying we don't have a chance. (I actually think we have a really nice club that is pretty close and going to keep getting better). And I'm not saying to not make a trade, especially if it's for the long term rather than the short.

 

But I find it interesting how conversation has shifted over the past few months...generally speaking...how this team wouldn't even finish .500 and we need to play the prospects. Now, this team is over .500 and playing the kids, and starting to play more of them. For example, Jorge getting a pair of starts, Hilgenberger, Busentiz and even Randy Rosario getting a first shot. ( Though we do need to see more of both Hilgenberger and Busentz). Reed and Curtiss are looking fantastic and should be in line for a look-see in the not too distant future.

 

So which is it? We were supposed to be bad so play the kids. Now we're pretty good so trade some of the kids for other veteran players? Again, not saying the Twins shouldn't make moves, or that it would be a mistake. It's just an interesting twist of expectation vs results for this season. Personally, I'd kind of like to see how the pen shakes out a little more with the kids before making a move. It bodes well, potentially, for now and the future both, while allowing us to hold on to prospects for maybe a SP trade at some point.

As others have pointed out playing the kids provides both development for them and better players right now. So win-win with what they are doing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Had the Twins moved when I hinted both these guys should be acquired (a month ago to the day), they'd have a comfy lead in the AL Central.

How many MLB players of value are traded at the beginning on June?  It's rare enough that unless you have a specific offer to overwhelm the trading team, I'm guessing they will hold on to any good players (like Neshek and Hand) and wait for the market to develop in July.

 

You can sometimes find scuffling buy-low types like Sam Dyson around that time, and since a shaky first appearance with San Fran (against the Twins, no less), Dyson has been pretty good, and in high-leverage situations too.  We probably should have picked him up, at least to take Breslow's spot.

 

 

I like what I saw from Felix Jorge, but relying on him the rest of the way isn't ideal for a contender. You gotta do it sometime, though, right? I'd like to make Hector Santiago disappear (90-day DL) and give his spot to a legitimate third starter (Jake Odorizzi perhaps). Then Gibson and Jorge fill out the back end. 

The Rays are pretty much even with the Twins and the other wild card contenders right now, so they probably aren't selling for less than top value, which could be pretty high given Odorizzi's record and future control.  Also, Alex Cobb is the soon-to-be-free-agent on their staff, and I think Tampa would do their best to move him before other assets.

[spinowner]

 

Preller from the Padres is expecting a boatload in return for Hand, he has already said as much. I would cross him off the list.

There will probably be several other teams who will offer more than the Twins are willing to offer.