Article: Should Twins Usher Youth Movement In Rotation?

[Nick Nelson]

Since taking over Minnesota Twins baseball operations, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shown a propensity for following the blueprint laid out by the forward-thinking Astros front office – most recently with their draft strategy last month.

 

It's not a bad idea, given the fruits we are now seeing from Houston's lengthy rebuild. Now, as the Twins find themselves on the precipice of contention, it might be time to adopt another philosophy that has aided the Astros in their rise:

 

Trusting young arms.In 2015, when the Astros emphatically returned to relevance by adding 16 wins from the previous season and making the playoffs, Lance McCullers played a key role. Just 21 years old, the top prospect was promoted to the majors with only 29 innings of experience at Double-A, and none at Triple-A. He caught on quickly and delivered a 3.22 ERA over 125 innings in 22 starts.

 

Some would see it as reckless rushing of a starter who was still only a couple years removed from high school, but the bold move worked out well and McCullers continues to be a key component in Houston's league-leading formula.

 

He's hardly the only example of a young and inexperienced hurler being given an extended chance for the club.

 

That same year, Vince Velasquez (23) made 19 appearances, despite minimal time spent above Single-A. In 2016, Joe Musgrove (23) got the call after a short stint at Triple-A, and threw 62 quality innings. This year, Francis Martes (21) is getting an extended look in the rotation, and so was David Paulino (23) before he was hit with an 80-game PED suspension on Saturday.

 

None of these pitchers followed a conventional development path, but are such paradigms entirely useful anymore? Modern organizations are shifting away from requiring extensive polish, and instead opting to get high-caliber youthful arms up more quickly, perhaps owing to the seeming inevitability of elbow or shoulder problems somewhere along the way.

 

Should the Twins follow the wave and usher a youth movement in their own rotation?

 

That would mean promoting one, or both, of the system's top two pitching prospects, both currently thriving at Double-A.

 

Felix Jorge paved the way on Saturday, when he jumped straight from Chattanooga to Minnesota and delivered a solid outing, settling in after a two-run homer in the first to complete five innings of three-run ball. The 23-year-old wasn't blowing people away, but he worked efficiently and threw strikes, something that veterans Hector Santiago and Kyle Gibson have continually struggled to do.

 

In a loaded Lookouts rotation, Jorge might have been the most polished but he certainly wasn't the best, nor capable of the greatest impact. Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves are premium prospects capable of meaningfully altering Minnesota's fortunes. Both are making very strong cases to follow in Jorge's footsteps.

 

Following a slow start to the season, Romero has been rattling off one excellent outing after another, and appeared to have one cooking in his latest turn on Saturday, with two shutout innings before rain ended the game. He has a 1.11 ERA over his past seven starts and his stuff would certainly play in the big leagues right now, though control remains a question.

 

Gonsalves has been consistently brilliant all year and, dating back to the second half in 2016, now owns a 13-4 record and 2.17 ERA in 22 starts at Double-A. He has a 30-to-3 K/BB ratio over his past four turns.

 

Neither Romero nor Gonsalves is on the level of McCullers as a prospect, but if either (or both) could come up and have even a Musgrove-level impact? It would dramatically shift the team's outlook, suddenly making them look like a legit threat to at least keep things interesting through September.

 

And even if you're not a believer that the Twins are quite where they need to be for a postseason push, they certainly benefit more from working up-close with two planned future rotation staples, rather than going through the same tired act each fifth day with Gibson and Santiago, who are in all likelihood out after this year.

 

It might feel like a fast bump for these electric youngsters, but in today's game, is it really?

 

The only serious hold-up that I can see with this plan relates to workload management, but the Astros found ways to work around this when they called McCullers up as a rookie, keeping him available into October while still limiting him to 150 total innings on the season.

 

What say you? Are you ready to see the top Twins pitching prospects on the big stage or is it still too soon?

 

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[TKGuy]

Gibson and Mejia may be starting to come around, so that still gives us Santiago's spot to fill. With his comments, not thinking he's going to last in rotation. Should Slegers get a chance first?

[jud6312]

Given the inconsistency of Mejia and Gibson, and the consistent, but dreadful, work of Santiago lately, I'm all for it.

 

I feel we're seeing signs of consistency from all three of them the last few times out - the former two in positive ways, the latter in negative.

 

Maybe roll them out one at a time. Santiago is faltering (for lack of a kinder word), and I wouldn't shed a tear if he were traded/DFA'd/moved to the pen in favor of someone younger.

 

Jorge wasn't lights out, but showed a lot of poise for a young kid making his debut and I'd like to see more. Put him and see what he can do over the span of a few weeks. If it doesn't work - i.e. ineffective or not going deep into games - then bring up one of the other two.

 

Repeat the process for the other starters as the continually falter.

[Seth Stohs]

In my opinion, I'd like to see Romero, Gonsalves and Jorge moved up to AAA Rochester after the AAA All Star game, and join Slegers in that rotation. 

 

Adalberto Mejia has been pretty solid his last three starts. Gibson's shown some signs in like 6 of his 8 starts since coming back. That buys a little time. 

[Dantes929]

 

In my opinion, I'd like to see Romero, Gonsalves and Jorge moved up to AAA Rochester after the AAA All Star game, and join Slegers in that rotation. 

 

Adalberto Mejia has been pretty solid his last three starts. Gibson's shown some signs in like 6 of his 8 starts since coming back. That buys a little time. 

I agree with you but that still leaves Santiago.    You don't have to move all three of them up at once but I still favor merit.   Gibson apparently benefited from going down to the minors and I for one think he has been pretty much what we want ever since.   Santiago has not been what we want.    Give Jorge a shot.    If he falters give Gonsalves a shot.   If Santiago does great then bring him back if someone falters.    Merit based pitching.   We have kind of been over this before.   If the minor league guys have stuff they need to work on in order to increase their chances of success then great, have them go the route you prefer.   If they have command poise and major league pitches, then get them up here when there is opportunity and Santiago presents an opportunity.

[old nurse]

Musgrove and Paulino each have an ERA over 6.  The push to the majors for these players is called lack of alternatives for Houston.

[HitInAPinch]

Honestly, what is it that people see in Aaron Slegers?  I'm reading stuff that says he's a tall, soft tossing righthander, who tops out as a back-of-the-rotation starter. Are we really talking about another Jon Rauch?  Good enough to stick around? 

 

And if Gonsalves is so good, why hasn't he been called up?

 

I just see not future for Santiago with the Twins.  With his words and poor pitching, he's just not the guy I'd want around.  Gibson had a nice start yesterday.  Maybe more haircuts for everyone?  LOL

 

Gibson just had a good start.  Let's see it again.

[theJemmer]

I would like to see the AA names mentioned given a chance asap in order to start the process of getting the big league jitters out. Remember the debuts of Berrios, May, etc? It's a win-win. Either they get some 3rd deck experience which will help in the future-or hallelujah if they can actually help.

[mikelink45]

Gibson saved his season on July 4, but Santiago should be toast and not in the  pen, he has no weapons to be lights out in the pen.  We can see what happens with mediocre stuff when Hughes trots out there.  But yes - test the young guys in mlb.  Rotate them in and out.  Use the year to find the right ones, give them experience, and get rid of Santiago.  

 

 

[mazeville]

Trade Santana, DFA or trade Santiago, insert Jorge and Gonsalves in the rotation while Romero and Slegers provide some insurance. 

 

They're too close to contention to really trade anybody, I guess. But that's what the Twins should do. I'd much rather have the kids pitching for this team. 

[wsnydes]

I would be in favor of bringing them up to get their feet wet.  If they decide to move Santiago out of the rotation, whether it be back to the DL or something else, I'd like to see them bringing the kids up to fill that spot.  It seems that Gibson is salvaging something, so I don't see them moving on from him yet.  Any time a 5th starter is needed, I'd like that to go to one of the prospects too.  

 

Even if they're just getting spot starts at the big leagues, they're still being given a learning opportunity.  There can't be anything wrong with that.  They get a taste of what they're dream is and perhaps some pointers from the big league staff and/or veterans.  

 

In the meantime, if they're not on the major league roster I'd like to see them at AAA.  I'm not sure they have much left to prove at AA.  Get them some tougher competition to help reinforce the major league experience.

[dbminn]

The Twins should bring up one of the AA prospects only if there is an injury, a trade, or they fall out of the running for a playoff spot. That means we should see at least one of them soon, since any of these three scenarios could happen in the next few weeks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tomj14]

I am all for bringing up 1 of those 3. Erv, Berrios, Meija, Gibson, and one of those 3 would be good.

I have not been on the Gibson bandwagon, but since June he has an ERA of 4.17 and has pitched into at least the 5 every gam and it all but 1 the 6th. It does seem Paul has him on a short leash after the 5th it one guy gets on he yanks him. I would love to see him attempt to get the last out in the inning 4 of 7 starts have ended in 2/3 of a inning.

[hybridbear]

 

In my opinion, I'd like to see Romero, Gonsalves and Jorge moved up to AAA Rochester after the AAA All Star game, and join Slegers in that rotation. 

 

Adalberto Mejia has been pretty solid his last three starts. Gibson's shown some signs in like 6 of his 8 starts since coming back. That buys a little time. 

I agree. I'd like to see how they do at AAA before they come to MLB. I think between Santana, Berrios, Mejia, and Gibson the Twins are doing okay right now. Gibson is showing some signs of stopping the nibbling and just pitching. I believe that Santana is good enough to figure out his recent struggles and get back on track. Now the Twins just have to get rid of Santiago. Does Santiago have options left where he could go down to AAA?

[bird]

McCullers is viewed as being on a higher talent level than anyone of our prospects being mentioned. The other Astros mentioned have given Houston about 25 starts in total during 2017 with an ERA above 5, so I don't think we want to follow this path with our guys, right? Have them come up in 2017 with spotty results only to come back up in 2018 with only slightly better results?

 

My theory is that the FO thinks about the pitching situation so differently than we do as fans. I doubt they ever think about or have discussed any statistic that defines the Twins as having "the worst pitching in baseball" or whatever the numbers say today. I think they strictly regard each pitcher and assess that player's current path. Their patience with the MLB pitchers, in my view, stems from this approach. My theory is that Falvine stays very much focused on the developmental progress of each prospect. I really wonder if, from a tactical standpoint, they ever have a discussion about ushering in a youth movement. As a hypothetical, I can envision a thought process that compares the benefits to the team of having Gonsalves come up and get eaten alive by the best hitters in baseball in 10 starts in 2017 versus straightening out Mejia, or Gibson, or Santiago and living with the best those guys can give you, until your assessment is that Gonsalves (or whomever) has a better than even chance to hold his own up here.

 

I think a lot of times we get wishful about these prospects and lose sight of how big the jump is, especially for prospects with more "marginal" talent. I also think the fans' argument of "we don't know if we don't give them a shot" ignores the level of understanding the development people generally have about the stage of development of each of these pitchers.  Jorge was thrust into the spotlight. They probably had an inkling that he could focus and hold his poise, maybe get away with some things for a start or two. But even we as fans can see that Jorge might get shelled next time out. He's not quite ready.

[Shaitan]

It worked for Berrios last year.

[drjim]

 

McCullers is viewed as being on a higher talent level than anyone of our prospects being mentioned. The other Astros mentioned have given Houston about 25 starts in total during 2017 with an ERA above 5, so I don't think we want to follow this path with our guys, right? Have them come up in 2017 with spotty results only to come back up in 2018 with only slightly better results?

 

My theory is that the FO thinks about the pitching situation so differently than we do as fans. I doubt they ever think about or have discussed any statistic that defines the Twins as having "the worst pitching in baseball" or whatever the numbers say today. I think they strictly regard each pitcher and assess that player's current path. Their patience with the MLB pitchers, in my view, stems from this approach. My theory is that Falvine stays very much focused on the developmental progress of each prospect. I really wonder if, from a tactical standpoint, they ever have a discussion about ushering in a youth movement. As a hypothetical, I can envision a thought process that compares the benefits to the team of having Gonsalves come up and get eaten alive by the best hitters in baseball in 10 starts in 2017 versus straightening out Mejia, or Gibson, or Santiago and living with the best those guys can give you, until your assessment is that Gonsalves (or whomever) has a better than even chance to hold his own up here.

 

I think a lot of times we get wishful about these prospects and lose sight of how big the jump is, especially for prospects with more "marginal" talent. I also think the fans' argument of "we don't know if we don't give them a shot" ignores the level of understanding the development people generally have about the stage of development of each of these pitchers.  Jorge was thrust into the spotlight. They probably had an inkling that he could focus and hold his poise, maybe get away with some things for a start or two. But even we as fans can see that Jorge might get shelled next time out. He's not quite ready.

 

These are kind of an important points that are notably absent from the article. The quality of the prospect does impact how soon they can come up and expect to be successful.

 

McCullers was always considered a top pitching prospect, not surprising that he has been successful.

[Han Joelo]

I feel like there is a pretty good chance the trio will be heard from again this year.  This FO seems to have a clear idea of who the prospects are and who is filler; much better than I.  Going back to Rosario's cameo, when, at the time, it was either he or Melotakis, it seems they aren't afraid to get that "first time" out of the way for the real deal guys--and then quickly get them back.  For Jorge and Rosario, they can (and have) say they KNOW their stuff will play at the top level, but there is still work to do.  

 

Doesn't hurt to test out the prototype.  I'll leave it to the scientists to decide when they're ready to pull them out of the lab.  What I don't expect is for any of these guys to nail down a big league job right away.  

 

Curtiss, on the other hand...I'm hopeful he'll be ready to stick when they call him up.

[bird]

 

It worked for Berrios last year.

 

 

What worked for him last year? Berrios came up in 2016 and was dreadful for the most part, wasn't he? He wasn't ready then, and he wasn't ready to begin 2017. He came up when he was ready in 2017. Well, maybe a month or so AFTER he was ready, but...

 

I think we'd be absolutely thrilled if any of Jorge, Gonsalves, or Romero demonstrated the level of sheer talent, will, and polish we're seeing from Berrios. Remember, guys like Keith Law were at one time describing Berrios's ceiling as a 3-4 with a higher likelihood of becoming a bullpen arm. Berrios is a much better pitcher today than he was a year ago. It paid to be patient and let him develop.

[DocBauer]

Each prospect, his stuff, his mental makeup, what he needs to refine, etc, is unique unto himself. I think it's a bit arbitrary to simply say "this guy did it", (jumping from AA), whether it be a past Twin or someone from another team. And the jump to the majors is so large that even a very talented prospect with huge future success, (Berrios as a possible example here), will almost certainly have some growing pains.

 

I'm not saying you shouldn't consider ML promotions/auditions for these guys. And there is no question the rotation for the remainder of this season and going in to next season is greatly enhanced if one of them can become established now, as Berrios and Mejia seem to be doing. But with the exception of a start such as the one Jorge had, I'd get all 3 of these guys up to AAA NOW. Challenge them. Work with them. Then let's see where they are by August. It's safe, but still aggressive. They all appear ready for the next level.

[Thrylos]

Yes they should.  Maybe.  But would they?  Cutting Santiago is going to happen sooner than later, I'd rather see one of Jorge or Romero (both of 40 man) replace him, but it looks like it will be Gee who is 2 years older than Santiago. 

 

Gibson pitched well the last time out, and below average previously.  He is your typical end of rotation type starter who seems to over think things.  Will his stuff play better out of the pen?  Will be intriguing to see because he can tough 94-95 in the rotation, so he should be a couple notches higher in the pen.  A conversion like this happens better in the offseason.

 

So you got Santiago outta here and Gibson in the pen and replace them, ideally with Jorge and Romero (but likely with Gee and Turley based on past experience.)  Are Jorge and Romero ready?  Will they give the Twins better posibility of winning games than Santiago, Gibson, Gee, or Turley?  That's what the Twins' brass has to decide.  I think that we have seen enough of Santiago to say that he should go.   As for the rest I am not sure.  This is not 2016, if the season ended today, they are in a tie for a play in game.  At this point, I'd rather see them go out and get a rental that can pencil in on top of the rotation, it will give them a better possibility to win than other options, and try to find who would be the best 5th pitcher by trial and error, among the 4 mentioned.  If Romero breaks through and pitches the way we hope he can pitch, I'd consider that a bonus, but I would not count on it.

Edited July 5, 2017 by Thrylos

[Nick Nelson]

 

It worked for Berrios last year.

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm, but in my mind it supports the point. Berrios came up in 2016 and got rocked but I think he learned some important things about what it takes to succeed at this level. He came back this year with some key adjustments, and look what a difference it's made. Do you believe he'd be having the same success if not for that learning experience? I doubt it, personally.

 

As I said in the piece, this isn't necessarily about coaxing the Twins into contention. Even if it's not going to happen in 2017, it should absolutely be the plan in 2018, and these prospects will need to play a big role in that. They will be much better prepared with a taste of MLB competition. 

 

(Note: I'd be more apt to call up Romero than Gonsalves, given that he's already used an option this year, but Stephen is making a really strong case with his improved control.)

[Vanimal46]

 

McCullers is viewed as being on a higher talent level than anyone of our prospects being mentioned. The other Astros mentioned have given Houston about 25 starts in total during 2017 with an ERA above 5, so I don't think we want to follow this path with our guys, right? Have them come up in 2017 with spotty results only to come back up in 2018 with only slightly better results?

 

My theory is that the FO thinks about the pitching situation so differently than we do as fans. I doubt they ever think about or have discussed any statistic that defines the Twins as having "the worst pitching in baseball" or whatever the numbers say today. I think they strictly regard each pitcher and assess that player's current path. Their patience with the MLB pitchers, in my view, stems from this approach. My theory is that Falvine stays very much focused on the developmental progress of each prospect. I really wonder if, from a tactical standpoint, they ever have a discussion about ushering in a youth movement. As a hypothetical, I can envision a thought process that compares the benefits to the team of having Gonsalves come up and get eaten alive by the best hitters in baseball in 10 starts in 2017 versus straightening out Mejia, or Gibson, or Santiago and living with the best those guys can give you, until your assessment is that Gonsalves (or whomever) has a better than even chance to hold his own up here.

 

I think a lot of times we get wishful about these prospects and lose sight of how big the jump is, especially for prospects with more "marginal" talent. I also think the fans' argument of "we don't know if we don't give them a shot" ignores the level of understanding the development people generally have about the stage of development of each of these pitchers.  Jorge was thrust into the spotlight. They probably had an inkling that he could focus and hold his poise, maybe get away with some things for a start or two. But even we as fans can see that Jorge might get shelled next time out. He's not quite ready.

 

Very well said, Bird. What's also negated from the article is the Astros' rotation has been decimated by injury. Keuchel has missed the last month of action. McHugh was lost for the season. Charlie Morton has been injured since late May. Throwing all of these prospects against the wall and see who sticks was most certainly not a part of their plan for this season. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Musgrove and Paulino each have an ERA over 6.  The push to the majors for these players is called lack of alternatives for Houston.

They have alternatives, just as the Twins do: claim AAAA arms like Adam Wilk, Chris Heston and Dillon Gee off waivers. Would you rather watch those guys start games, or watch your top prospects learn and develop under your big-league staff? That's the question here. I'm not necessarily saying Houston's approach is correct but given the immense success their franchise is experiencing I'm inclined to give it some cred. 

[Vanimal46]

 

They have alternatives, just as the Twins do: claim AAAA arms like Adam Wilk, Chris Heston and Dillon Gee off waivers. Would you rather watch those guys start games, or watch your top prospects learn and develop under your big-league staff? That's the question here. I'm not necessarily saying Houston's approach is correct but given the immense success their franchise is experiencing I'm inclined to give it some cred. 

 

Hard for the Astros to claim these intriguing arms when the Twins are ahead of them in the waiver wire pecking order! 

[terrydactyls]

What worked for him last year? Berrios came up in 2016 and was dreadful for the most part, wasn't he? He wasn't ready then, and he wasn't ready to begin 2017. He came up when he was ready in 2017. Well, maybe a month or so AFTER he was ready, but...

 

I think we'd be absolutely thrilled if any of Jorge, Gonsalves, or Romero demonstrated the level of sheer talent, will, and polish we're seeing from Berrios. Remember, guys like Keith Law were at one time describing Berrios's ceiling as a 3-4 with a higher likelihood of becoming a bullpen arm. Berrios is a much better pitcher today than he was a year ago. It paid to be patient and let him develop.

 

What is the big unknown to all of is: was the 2016 time in the majors or the return to the minors the important factor in Berrios becoming an MLB pitcher? The coaches, managers, and front office may have some idea of which had the biggest impact. I personally don't think any of us arm-chair managers know the reason.

 

Now, what I would like to see happen is trade Erv Santana, Dozier, and Rosario at the deadline but only of the combination of those trades bring back one almost in the majors AAA pitcher, and three "ready in 2018" players, preferably pitchers. An outfield of Granite, Buxton, and Kepler would be fun to watch.

[Squirrel]

I think at the very least those three should be in AAA, and soon. Some of these prospects can be given cups of coffee in the big leagues, see how they do and let them also see what they need to do to stay up. And whoever shows closest to ready, a September call up. I'm not in favor of DFA'ing or trading 3/5 of the starting rotation right now in order to throw these guys in there for the duration of the season, especially without any AAA time under their belts. I think that would be disastrous. But I do think AAA call ups with MLB cups of coffee are what should happen.

[drjim]

 

What is the big unknown to all of is: was the 2016 time in the majors or the return to the minors the important factor in Berrios becoming an MLB pitcher? The coaches, managers, and front office may have some idea of which had the biggest impact. I personally don't think any of us arm-chair managers know the reason. Now, what I would like to see happen is trade Erv Santana, Dozier, and Rosario at the deadline but only of the combination of those trades bring back one almost in the majors AAA pitcher, and three "ready in 2018" players, preferably pitchers. An outfield of Granite, Buxton, and Kepler would be fun to watch.

 

It seemed to me that the front office was hesitant to throw him out there last year because they knew he had things to work on before he would be successful. They were right. The question to wrestle with was whether there was value in Berrios starting in the minors this year, and if he was putting finishing polish on to be most successful. Was that enhanced by his experience last year, or would it have happened either way?

 

Also, Berrios last year to these 3 this year is still not a great comparison. Berrios was clearly a better talent, he had logged more starts at the higher levels before being promoted, and the team last year was not competitive, so they had nothing to lose by throwing him out there to see if he could learn on the job.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

What worked for him last year? Berrios came up in 2016 and was dreadful for the most part, wasn't he? He wasn't ready then, and he wasn't ready to begin 2017. He came up when he was ready in 2017. Well, maybe a month or so AFTER he was ready, but...

 

I think we'd be absolutely thrilled if any of Jorge, Gonsalves, or Romero demonstrated the level of sheer talent, will, and polish we're seeing from Berrios. Remember, guys like Keith Law were at one time describing Berrios's ceiling as a 3-4 with a higher likelihood of becoming a bullpen arm. Berrios is a much better pitcher today than he was a year ago. It paid to be patient and let him develop.

I think Berrios' failure in 2016 led to his success of 2017. Berrios hadn't really failed previously. He's shown the fortitude to overcome that failure.  

 

I think that fortitude is an important soft skill required to make that early jump viable. As a person by person trait, some people have it, and others don't. It seems the FO saw that fortitude in Jorge, and in Romero, to where they thought, if they stretch those guys further than they are ready, they will respond positively and make the adjustments and put in the work to realize the goal.

 

I do like the idea of stretching many of these double A pitchers to get the youth movement started. It will also provide a mechanism to pull the whole "supply chain" of minor league pitching forward. The Twins need to develop depth behind Jorge, Romero and Gonsalves in a hurry.

[rdehring]

Nick made an important point when he mentioned that Gonsalves isn't on the 40-man, thus, it makes no sense to call him up prior to September when burning an option wouldn't come into play.

 

I liked bringing up Jorge as the 26th man for one day only. Great opportunity and experience...and he did very well. Perhaps they do more of that over the coming couple months, ie, alternate bringing up Jorge and Romero for a start or two. They would know it is only for a week to gain experience. Who knows, one of them might shock everyone and pitch so well they can't be sent back.