Article: Halfway Home: 9 Crazy On-Pace Numbers

[Nick Nelson]

On Sunday, the Minnesota Twins played their 81st game of the season, meaning we are exactly halfway through this 2017 campaign. At this midpoint, it is always fun to double up statistics for certain players and see how they project for the whole year.

 

Some of these ones might surprise you.Of course, we must bear in mind that a year ago, Brian Dozier had 13 home runs through 81 games, and finished with 42. Things change, as we all know, and rarely does a player put together two equal halves.

 

Still, for the sake of fun, and contextualizing what we've seen from Twins players over the first half, here are nine players with numbers worth chewing on as we gear up for the final three months.

 

1. Ervin Santana is on pace for 20 wins and 6 shutouts

 

Even if you discount the value of the Almighty W, reaching the 20-win plateau is still a pretty cool achievement – one we haven't seen from a Twin since Johan Santana in 2004. If he can spin three shutouts in the second half, as he did in the first, he'll end up with the highest total for an MLB starter since Cliff Lee notched six back in 2011. No one has tallied more since 1989 (Tim Belcher).

 

2. Miguel Sano is on pace for 40 home runs, 116 RBI, and 216 strikeouts

 

The Twins went nearly five decades between seeing players eclipse 40 homers; now, they might see it in two straight seasons.

 

With 116 RBI, Sano would finish with the highest total since Justin Morneau in 2008 (129), and ninth-most ever for a Minnesota Twin.

 

Only three hitters in baseball history have struck out more than 216 times in a season: Mark Reynolds in 2009 (223), Adam Dunn in 2012 (222), and Chris Davis in 2016 (219).

 

3. Robbie Grossman is on pace for 88 walks

 

Contemporary Twins rosters haven't exactly been known for showing exceptional patience, but Grossman redefines selectiveness at the plate. Since 2000, only three Twins have drawn more than 85 walks: Matt Lawton in 2000 (91), Mauer in 2012 (90), and Dozier in 2014 (89). Grossman, incredibly, is on track to get there it in barely over 500 plate appearances; each of the other three needed at least 640 PA.

 

Grossman also finishes the first half ranked among MLB's top five in K/BB ratio, with some pretty stellar company: Joey Votto, Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Anthony Rizzo.

 

4. Brandon Kintzler is on pace for 42 saves

 

In my mind, perhaps the unlikeliest success story of this 2017 Twins season. Kintzler has been far more than adequate in the closer role.

 

Only two Twins have ever notched more than 42 saves in a season: Joe Nathan three times, and Eddie Guardado once. Kintzler's 88 percent conversion rate is on par with the franchise's finest.

 

5. Taylor Rogers is on pace to make 72 appearances

 

Two years ago, Rogers was a solid minor-league starter. Now, he is the most frequently deployed weapon in Paul Molitor's bullpen, proving himself as much more than a situational left-hander. Rogers has earned the manager's trust by pounding the strike zone and, surprisingly, shutting down righties: they're hitting .227/.275/.253 against him.

 

6. Byron Buxton is on pace to steal 28 bases... and get caught twice

 

He still isn't getting on base nearly as much as we'd like, but when he does, Buxton is doing damage. In the grand scheme, 28 steals isn't an historic number, though it would be the most for a Twin since Ben Revere snagged 40 in 2012.

 

That 93 percent success rate, however, provides a tantalizing taste of how unstoppable the 23-year-old's speed will be on the base paths once he spends more time there.

 

7. Matt Belisle is on pace to issue 34 walks

 

It remains to be seen if he will get enough rope to reach such a number, at least in a Twins uniform, but Belisle's once reputable control has vanished completely. Only once in his career has the veteran surpassed 34 walks – back in 2007, when he issued 43 in 177 innings as a full-time starter for the Reds.

 

8. Tyler Duffey is on pace for 82 strikeouts in relief

 

It took the Twins up until the end of spring training to settle on a role for Duffey. It looks like they made the right choice. He's had some hiccups, but Duffey has been the best power arm in the Minnesota bullpen. Whereas the other high-K righties in the relief corps (Ryan Pressly and Michael Tonkin) have imploded, Duffey has translated the stuff into clean outings more often than not. In his first season in the new role, he is on track for the most strikeouts from a Twin pitching exclusively in relief since Joe Nathan's 89 in 2009.

 

9. Chris Gimenez is on pace to make 228 plate appearances... and 12 pitching appearances

 

We didn't know what to expect when the Twins signed Gimenez to a minor-league deal in mid-January. His modest track record included a .632 OPS, frequent shuttling between organizations, and zero seasons with more than 155 plate appearances in the majors.

 

But at 34, Gimenez has been a mainstay for Minnesota. He has reliably spelled Jason Castro behind the plate every third day or so, and his spelling of the pitching staff has been crucial, eating innings when the team badly needs it.

 

What Gimenez is doing is essentially unprecedented in the modern game; since 1960, no position player has made 12 relief appearances in his career, much less one season.

 

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[IndianaTwin]

I always enjoy doing these kinds of things too. Buxton is also on pace for 164 strikeouts. 

 

But when I looked on baseball-reference, he had 21 singles that didn't leave a runner on second or when he didn't advance to second on an error. Similarly, 18 of his walks/HBP didn't move a man to second. His reaching on an error moved Rosario to 2B. 

 

I don't know how to check for any other situations, but that would suggest he was on first with second open about 39 times. In that context, 14 steals of second is pretty impressive -- more than 1 of 3 times resulted in a steal.

 

Now if we could just get that number of times on first to increase, that projection of 28 steals could really increase!

 

[The Wise One]

The results from the month of June could diminish expectations on Santana.

 

Grossman's skills might yet be appreciated.  His results are likely improved as Molitor picks the spots to use him in. Grossman has sat out 20% of the games

 

Duffey needs to strike out more batters,  When the batter makes contact too many bad things happen. 

[Kwak]

I wasn't aware that Duffey is a "power arm".  I thought he got his Ks with curves not FBs.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Buxton is on pace for two triples. Didn't see that coming.

[D.C Twins]

There is much to be optimistic about for this team but....

 

"no position player has made 12 relief appearances in his career, much less one season."

 

This is a microcosm of our season. Our pitching staff has NO chance to guide us to any purposeful postseason run. ALL deadline decisions should be made for the future (and I would argue 2019). 

[HitInAPinch]

Past time that the "Save" stat be eliminated....

[bird]

 

There is much to be optimistic about for this team but....

 

 ALL deadline decisions should be made for the future (and I would argue 2019). 

 

I agree with your first sentence and would restate the other one: ALL deadline decisions should take advantage of the opportunity of the moment as long as the decision doesn't compromise the immediate future (and I would argue this is 2018).

 

I would add this crazy on-pace number:

 

10. All eight teams in the system, from MLB down to the DSL, have winning records. I wonder if another team in baseball can say this.

[mikelink45]

I really enjoyed this, but one qualification that you gave is a sign of the times and not something this old man agrees with - wins do matter as do strikeouts by the batter.  I am reading Keith Law's Smart Baseball and enjoying it, but also disagreeing with parts 

The win is still a good measure for pitchers because it represents the fact that they pitched long enough to qualify and that is getting rarer just like  shut outs are getting rarer.   Imagine a player setting the record of 16 in one season!  http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SHO_season.shtml  Wins for relief pitchers do not matter, but I still put value in the win total for a starter.  The fact that Warren Spahn won 20 games or more 13 times is really impressive.  The fact that Steve Carlton won won 27 games for the last-place (59-97) 1972 Phillies is amazing.  

 

In the same way that saves mean nothing the wins still count and there is a reason Santana has 10 wins and Gibson and Santiago have 4 each.

 

The second stat that drives us old guys crazy is the total acceptance that K's are not a problem.  They are.  We used to have power hitters who also did not strikeout 1/3 of their at bats.  If Sano is a 270 hitter and strikes out 216 times we all lose.  He does not have less power by striking out less.  But if we remove 100 of those strike outs his average tells us that he should have at least 27 more hits and I think we would all take that.  In fact his BABIP is .366 so that would be 36 more hits.   

[terrydactyls]

The second stat that drives us old guys crazy is the total acceptance that K's are not a problem.  They are.

 

It's a sign of the times. Just like "everyone gets a trophy". Instead of trying to make a player work hard to improve, they are coddled and told "that's okay. You did your best." what nonsense. They are paid an obscene amount of money to play a game. I expect them to work to be the best player they can be. Sano can be abetter play but he has to work on making contact.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's a sign of the times. Just like "everyone gets a trophy". Instead of trying to make a player work hard to improve, they are coddled and told "that's okay. You did your best." what nonsense. They are paid an obscene amount of money to play a game. I expect them to work to be the best player they can be. Sano can be abetter play but he has to work on making contact.

 

to be clear, you think the teams are not working with their players to get better at their jobs, and are told not to worry about anything at all?

[wsnydes]

 

IThe second stat that drives us old guys crazy is the total acceptance that K's are not a problem.  They are.  We used to have power hitters who also did not strikeout 1/3 of their at bats.  If Sano is a 270 hitter and strikes out 216 times we all lose.  He does not have less power by striking out less.  But if we remove 100 of those strike outs his average tells us that he should have at least 27 more hits and I think we would all take that.  In fact his BABIP is .366 so that would be 36 more hits.   

Strikeouts will always annoy the heck out of me.  No good ever comes from a strikeout.  At least put the ball in play.  

[Jerr]

"The win is still a good measure for pitchers because it represents the fact that they pitched long enough to qualify and that is getting rarer just like  shut outs are getting rarer. Imagine a player setting the record of 16 in one season!"  per: mikelink45

 

 

I totally agree that a win for a starter still matters, but wins for relievers, in most cases, really don't matter.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Jerr

[Nick Nelson]

 

Strikeouts will always annoy the heck out of me.  No good ever comes from a strikeout.  At least put the ball in play.  

This is a process/results thing though. Good things definitely come out of an approach that leads to strikeouts (namely, tons of power). Sure, it'd be nice to have guys who can hit 40 HR with a low K-rate but those players are beyond rare. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

I wasn't aware that Duffey is a "power arm".  I thought he got his Ks with curves not FBs.

I only meant it in the sense that he misses bats and gets strikeouts, especially compared to his peers. His CB is an overpowering pitch.

[mickeymental]

82-80 sounds pretty good.

[Bill Brown69]

 

82-80 sounds pretty good.

 

That is what my pre-season prediction was and I am sticking to it!

 

July is the toughest part of the schedule so we will probably take a few lumps and be lucky to end it with a .500 record but then it gets easier. I predict 80-80 with 2 to go and we win both.

[h2oface]

Halfway... and 3 games out of first in the division, and 5 games out of the cellar. Not very comforting, but a ton better than last year. But never seeming to change.... the pitching still sucks and got little attention.

[Doomtints]

Good article and discussion.

 

 

[h2oface]

 

There is much to be optimistic about for this team but....

 

"no position player has made 12 relief appearances in his career, much less one season."

 

This is a microcosm of our season. Our pitching staff has NO chance to guide us to any purposeful postseason run. ALL deadline decisions should be made for the future (and I would argue 2019). 

 

Butera is probably thinking.... "I could have done that......"

 

Patience, eh? I am so tired of being patient. May we all live long enough to see the 3rd World Series Banner. The hat trick. I wonder how many on this site actually saw (and remembered seeing/old enough) the other two. And how many saw the series in 1965. Damn Sandy Koufax. 0.38 ERA for 3 games. 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN196510140.shtml

[yarnivek1972]

Butera is probably thinking.... "I could have done that......"

 

Patience, eh? I am so tired of being patient. May we all live long enough to see the 3rd World Series Banner. The hat trick. I wonder how many on this site actually saw (and remembered seeing/old enough) the other two. And how many saw the series in 1965. Damn Sandy Koufax. 0.38 ERA for 3 games.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN196510140.shtml

And he LOST one.

[gil4]

 

May we all live long enough to see the 3rd World Series Banner. The hat trick. I wonder how many on this site actually saw (and remembered seeing/old enough) the other two. And how many saw the series in 1965.

I saw the two they one, although for 1987 I followed it in the Stars & Stripes newspaper and had to wait for family to send me the video tapes to watch the games.  I didn't see the 1965 series - we were in the process of moving at the time.  Plus, I was 10 months old.  They lost, so I got caught up on the experience by watching he Vikings in a few Super Bowls.

[terrydactyls]

 

to be clear, you think the teams are not working with their players to get better at their jobs, and are told not to worry about anything at all?

Work with?  Sure.  Really demanding?  I doubt it.

[gocgo]

Two stats that I wish were kept are wasted pitches by a pitcher (pitches that are so far out of the strike zone that they do not challenge a hitter) and wasted swings by a batter (pitches that are swung at that are not close to the strike zone).  It seems like when a hitter is in the zone, they stay back, explode on the ball that is in the strike zone.  When they are not in the zone, they make up their mind too early to swing and swing at pitches that they have little chance of getting a bat on.  On the other side of the ball, it drives me nuts to see a pitcher try to go high in the zone and throw a pitch that is higher than the batters head or try to throw an outside pitch and watch it sail a foot outside.

[Don Walcott]

One statistic that has been bothering me lately is k/9. If one guy pitches one inning and strikes out one batter, and gets the other two out on batted balls, he has a 9 k/9. Another guy strikes out one guy in an inning but gives up 3 hits and 3 walks, and he has a 9 k/9, even though it took him 9 batters to get his one strikeout. We should measure k/plate appearance, not per 3 outs.

[Mr. Brooks]

One statistic that has been bothering me lately is k/9. If one guy pitches one inning and strikes out one batter, and gets the other two out on batted balls, he has a 9 k/9. Another guy strikes out one guy in an inning but gives up 3 hits and 3 walks, and he has a 9 k/9, even though it took him 9 batters to get his one strikeout. We should measure k/plate appearance, not per 3 outs.

And this is why k% is more reliable than k/9.

[DJSim22]

 

One statistic that has been bothering me lately is k/9. If one guy pitches one inning and strikes out one batter, and gets the other two out on batted balls, he has a 9 k/9. Another guy strikes out one guy in an inning but gives up 3 hits and 3 walks, and he has a 9 k/9, even though it took him 9 batters to get his one strikeout. We should measure k/plate appearance, not per 3 outs.

 

The whole K rate and K % is just one part of the equation.  It's the part I think people are way too concerned about.  Michael Tonkin has a pretty good K rate and K %.  At some point you can either get guys out or you can't.