Article: Three-Bagger: TOS Troubles, Bad Belisle & Hello Hildy

[Thrylos]

You can add Rob Delaney to the mix of low velocity crazy minor league numbers who did nothing in the majors because were never given the opportunity players.  His numbers were more ridiculous than Slama's.  In 2007 and 2008 he had video game numbers from Beloit to Fort Myers to New Britain.  ERA averaging around 1, WHIP at 0.850 and more than 10 K/9...

[Nick Nelson]

 

If we are judging by Belisle's data, there isn't enough sample to suggest he is a less skilled pitcher from his previous few seasons. His velocity hasn't dropped and strike out rates are not significantly different. The sample is too small to look at other batted ball results or innings based results to suggest he has changed his skill level. 

He has issued 17 walks already in 33 appearances. His highest previous total in fulltime reliever duty was 18, in 2012, when he made 80 appearances. 

 

Granted, five of his 17 this year are IBB, but he's also frequently putting himself in a position where the team is forced to call for one. 

 

Belisle is a pitcher that needs pinpoint command to get it done, and he's been far from that. The small sample argument is not compelling to me. We're halfway through the season, he's showing no visible signs of improvement, and there's no long-term upside with a 37-year-old on a one-year deal. 

 

I suspect Hughes will bump him from the roster upon his return. 

[jorgenswest]

Walk rates very more than strike out rates and take longer to stabilize. It could also be random variation. Is there a significant difference in his pitch level data? That would be telling.

 

The reason performance varies greater for relievers than any other position is not the variability of their skill level but rather the size of the sample for which their performance is based. It doesn't matter to the data whether you are a starter or reliever. They begin to stabilize at the same point.

 

He what's walked 12 batters in the 141 batters he has faced. Might be 136 - do they count an intential walk as a batter faced when you don't throw a pitch? That can even happen to the first batter you face. In 2015, he walked 13 batters in 149 batters faced. Is it enough difference in this sample to support a change in skill level? Last year he walked 4 in 186. Likely random variation due to sample and not a skill change.

 

All I am trying to say is that we can't go by the at bat level or inning level data to make conclusions about how he will perform the remainder of the season. The sample doesn't support that conclusion.

 

The Twins may well have pitch level data related to command that does support a change in skill level.

[Thrylos]

 

If we are judging by Belisle's data, there isn't enough sample to suggest he is a less skilled pitcher from his previous few seasons. His velocity hasn't dropped and strike out rates are not significantly different. The sample is too small to look at other batted ball results or innings based results to suggest he has changed his skill level. He could just as likely perform similar to last year's numbers the rest of the way as repeat this year's numbers.

 

 

There is data.  Here comparing the most changed numbers between 2016 and 2017:

 

2016: LOB: 78.8%, HR/FB: 4.5%, BB%: 3.8%, K-BB: 13.4%, GB/FB: 1.6, xFIP: 3.87, ERA: 1.76
2017: LOB: 55.1%, HR/FB: 11.4%, BB%: 12.1%, K-BB%: 3.5%, GB/FB: 1.1,  xFIP: 5.53, ERA: 6.53

 

He has been a pitch to contact guy who induces ground balls and strikes out about 6-7 per nine.  This season:  He walks 4x as many batters as he did last season, induces about 50% more fly balls that he did last season, and those fly balls becoming HRs at a rate triple of last season.  Add the fact that only about half of the runners on base are stranded, and that explains the 4x different in earned runs.  Plus being superlucky with LOB and HR/FB in 2016.

 

that 55.4 LOB% should regress to 70%  that would make his ERA closer to his xFIP, but he is walking too many and not getting enough ground outs.  If you look at his fangraphs' pitch values, both his FB and CU are much worse this season.   His slider is fine, so if he throws more of that than curves and improves his fastball he might improve.  On the other hand, he just had his 37th birthday.  I'd rather see what Bard or Curtiss can do...

 

[jorgenswest]

Is there any mathematics that supports that those statistics above are meaningful for projecting his performance the next few months? Many of those numbers become meaningful in a much much larger sample. At his current sample, only strike out rate starts to be meaningful for projecting future performance.

 

Isn't that what matters? The Twins decision to release him should be based on how they project his future performance this year. I am not arguing that many of the plate appearance and inning level numbers are not different. They are different and they are lousy. I am arguing that they are not good indicators at this sample of how he will perform the remainder of the season. They also don't indicate that he will pitch like he did on 2015 and 2016. Those samples are also small.

 

I appreciate the discussion but I don't think I have any more to contribute. It is hard to put aside my math/statistics background when engaging in discussion related to data.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I can't argue with your thinking, but maybe it's a little too "big picture" for the situation at hand. In the link you referenced earlier, Breslow acknowledges that results matter. 

 

 “There’s currently a disconnect between the analytics department and the execution among the players,” he said of the game in general. “Certainly the most important thing is for me to get people out. I recognize that. I could be a great guy off the field and people could really like spending time with me, but if I’m not helping the team there’s not a place for me on the field.”

My interpretation: Breslow might be a thoughtful and smart pitcher, or Belisle might keep himself in fantastic shape, but the reality is that an aversion to those players will develop if they are not helping the team win or cannot do something exceptional from time to time. The intangibles they provide for the team will be ignored.

Edited June 28, 2017 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

As the roster currently stands Hildenberger and Busenitz need to prove they are major league pitchers before you can even think of releasing  Breslow. After that they would have to prove themselves reliable under pressure to have Belisle sent away. Bosher would likely go before Belisle. 

I find this very curious. I know that Boshers has been a popular whipping boy here on TD, but consider the following:

Boshers has a lower ERA, FIP, xFIP, BB/9 and WHIP.

Boshers has a higher K/9 than Belisle.

Not trying to pick a fight, just wondering how you would reach the conclusion that Boshers would likely go before Belisle?

If you say it is because Belisle is 'their' guy and Boshers is not, I think some of us might admit that things appear to go that way on this club. Any other reason eludes me at the moment. Thank you

[Mr. Brooks]

I find this very curious. I know that Boshers has been a popular whipping boy here on TD, but consider the following:

Boshers has a lower ERA, FIP, xFIP, BB/9 and WHIP.

Boshers has a higher K/9 than Belisle.

Not trying to pick a fight, just wondering how you would reach the conclusion that Boshers would likely go before Belisle?

If you say it is because Belisle is 'their' guy and Boshers is not, I think some of us might admit that things appear to go that way on this club. Any other reason eludes me at the moment. Thank you

You stated the reason right there in your question.

Belisle is their guy, hand picked.

Humans have a hard time recognizing when they are wrong. He'll get a long leash.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is there any mathematics that supports that those statistics above are meaningful for projecting his performance the next few months? Many of those numbers become meaningful in a much much larger sample. At his current sample, only strike out rate starts to be meaningful for projecting future performance.

Isn't that what matters? The Twins decision to release him should be based on how they project his future performance this year. I am not arguing that many of the plate appearance and inning level numbers are not different. They are different and they are lousy. I am arguing that they are not good indicators at this sample of how he will perform the remainder of the season. They also don't indicate that he will pitch like he did on 2015 and 2016. Those samples are also small.

I appreciate the discussion but I don't think I have any more to contribute. It is hard to put aside my math/statistics background when engaging in discussion related to data.

 

I understand your point, but I wonder if you're expecting an unbiased precision to the whole thing that even the Twins couldn't possibly deliver.  I am sure they have lots of data, but I am sure a lot of decisions are as much art as science.  There's a limit to how long you can shrug your shoulders about sample size and such over an already mediocre 37 year old reliever.

[yarnivek1972]

The front office was very clear in November and again in spring training that they thought the Twins had a void in veteran leadership. They sought veterans that they felt had brought those leadership skills that were missing. They landed on Belisle, Breslow and Gimenez. Being a veteran doesn't equate to being a leader. It is a talent.

 

Two quotes from Berardino's culture club article this spring

http://www.twincities.com/2017/03/18/minnesota-twins-build-culture-club-with-five-low-cost-veterans/

 

“You can have leadership in the front office, you can have leadership in the coaching staff, but if you don’t have leadership in the clubhouse I think it’s a real challenge to navigate 162 games, especially with the amount of youth we’ve had on this team.”

 

“You may see a signing where you may scratch your head and say, ‘Why did these guys spend this kind of money on that player at this stage of his career?’ ” Levine told those Twins fans. “I assure you it’s probably because this guy, in our opinion, has a chance to be a leader in the clubhouse.”

 

Does the FO like old guys? Not particularly. They do value those that have the talent and skill of leadership. Perhaps that leadership helped the team navigate through a sweep by Cleveland and not carry that disappointment into the next series.

I think it would be a greater challenge to navigate a 162 game season with terrible relievers.

[Highabove]

"You have to perform and contribute to be a leader."

 

Tori Hunter 2015

Edited June 29, 2017 by Highabove

[nicksaviking]

 

"You have to perform and contribute to be a leader."

 

Tori Hunter 2015

 

I don't want to take away from the effort and hard work put in by the veteran leaders, but this has to be true.

 

And I can see how guys who may not be graced with superior athletic abilities tend to be better leaders, simply because they DO have to work harder and they DO have to have more attention to fundamentals, and obviously those are the examples most teams want to present to the younger guys.

 

But when it comes to the point that the leadership skills are buoying a career because the on field production isn't there, then you've become a coach with a mitt and I don't think a 25-man roster can support that.

[The Wise One]

 

I think Hildenberger and Busenitz have already met the Breslow standard -- any lingering doubt about them being unable to replicate Breslow's recent results is almost certainly outweighed by both of them being optionable. Boshers too. So they can be rotated for a fresh arm as needed. This is only going to get more important as Hughes returns and we try to roster Haley again, without any SP upgrades on the immediate horizon (and more doubleheaders).

And again I dispute your assertion that Belisle has the ability to pitch effectively in the highest leverage situations, but give up multiple runs on a regular basis otherwise. His outings may have followed this general pattern so far in 2017, but that does not prove this specious ability exists. Relying on it to continue is a bad bet.

If they want to keep Belisle in the Breslow mop-up role for a bit, that's fine, but again I'd be ready to drop him for a fresh optionable arm as needed. Maybe Reed or Curtiss or even Romero for a look before the trade deadline.

You can dispute it, verbally or you can look it up yourself on any of the stats sites.  I keep forgetting that you have to footnote things on this site. The Breslow standard is will Molitor use the pitchers. 

Edited July 1, 2017 by The Wise One

[The Wise One]

 

Looks to me like both Hildenberger and Busenitz have the stuff to stick. Busenitz could develop into a classic closer with upper 90's heat if he learns to pick the 4 corners. Hildenberger could be a long-term mainstay of the Twins bullpen. His change-up is devastating, one of the best pitches I've seen on the Twins. He also threw a curve ball that bent laterally about three feet, starting at the knee of a righty, then hooking wide of the zone. He even threw a 94 mph overhand fastball. His control of the curve was erratic last night, but with more big league innings, that will improve. 

Never said that they did not have the stuff to stick.  Busenitz has a little FIP problem at the moment that has not effected the outcome as he has a sterling 97% LOB. . All small sample sizes and learning what not to do. Hildenberger has 3 innings at this point. Encouraging that he is still on thew 25 man rather than optioned for another.