Article: Coming Soon: Starting Pitching (But How Soon?)

[laloesch]

Given that Romero, Gonsalves and Jorge have not pitched above the AA level makes any chance of a fall callup unlikely.  If they had started the year at AAA the situation would be different. 

[markos]

 

Its not a choice of switching him back and forth between relieving and starting.  I'd be an innings limit thing.  Its entirely possible that with an innings limit, he only has 7 or 8 starts left this season and he would be shut down.  Would it make more sense to give him 4 or 5 more starts, then 10-15 relief appearances at the majors?  Other big time starters have gone that route (Price, Sale, Scherzer).  It wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world. 

I get the argument, I just think that it is an unnecessary risk to take with one of the few elite arms they have in the minors right now. I don't have a ton of confidence in Romero's durabilty to begin with, so having him switch to a situation where he can't do his normal warmup routine and is expected to throw as hard as he can for 20-30 pitches seems at the end of the longest season of his career makes me cringe a little bit. And if he is as good as advertised, there will be a lot of pressure to use him a lot if they are in the middle of a penant race. Obviously nothing is for sure when it comes to keeping pitchers healthy, and some limited bullpen work has worked out for other pitchers. But I just don't think the risk/reward is worth it.

[Taildragger8791]

 

What happened to Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay? Will they pitch again this year? 

 

Kohl Stewart has been out for a month and a half but it supposedly coming back soon to resume his audition for protection in next year's Rule 5 draft.

 

Tyler Jay had bicep tendinitis and now a shoulder issue. No word on his timeline that' I've seen. I assume that means he'll come back next spring then immediately announce he needs the routine Twins Tommy John Special.

 

I wouldn't make plans for the major league team that involve either of them for this or next year. Let them work their way back and force the issue.

[caninatl04]

 

We also have the forgotten prospect in AAA for the back of rotation in Sledgers. He is 7-4 with an era around 4 and he chews up innings.

I know I now sound like a broken record, but would someone please explain to me why David Hurlbut is never in any of these discussions?  I have followed every one of his starts.  I am not saying he is a future #1.  Nor am I saying he will be the #5 starter in the "best scenario" 2019 starting rotation, which we are debating here.  But doesn't he deserve consideration to start a couple of games and maybe "eat innings"?

 

Maybe I need one of you to explain why his "stuff" won't play in the Bigs.  Again, I am not advocating for Minor League pitcher of the Year, but to start the second half of a double-header?

[caninatl04]

These are not "advanced" stats, but basic stats. The statistics most correlated with winning are OBP and the pitching counterpart, WHIP. Their correlations are MUCH stronger than any other statistic.

 

So, when it comes to promotions, I recommend going with these two stats.

[bird]

 

Out of curiosity, I looked into the long term inability of the team to develop pitching (which coincided with the franchise's 2011 crash that has lingered for over half a decade now). Just looking at prospects who went through Fort Myers between 2007 and 2011 (of course excluding anyone from the MLB team making rehab starts) is pretty revealing:

 

Kyle Waldrop
Jeff Manship
Yohan Pino
Rob Delaney
Armando Gabino
Anthony Swarzak
Alex Burnett
Cole DeVries
Deolis Guerra
Matt Fox
Tyler Robertson
Anthony Slama
Jose Mijares
Liam Hendriks
Kyle Gibson
Alex Wimmers
Logan Darnell
Pat Dean
Andrew Albers
Caleb Thielbar
AJ Achter
Michael Tonkin
Ryan O’Rourke
Edgar Ibarra

 

5 Years of prospects and only 24 pitchers made it to the major leagues. A few of those guys lasted a season or two of average production out of the bullpen. Several pitched less than 10 innings in the major leagues. Only a couple are still in the majors, let alone with the Twins. Half a decade of pitching development and Gibson is the only potential success there (for the Twins at least. Hendriks has found some decent success the last couple of years, but with other teams of course). 2012 marked a shift in the team's pitching development philosophy, and the jury is still out on a lot of those guys. But fingers crossed for the 2012-2017 batch. 

 

Just to give readers one comparison covering this 2007-2011 period. I chose Cleveland, a team in our division, Falvey's former stomping ground, our stiffest competition at the moment, and a team I'm guessing most TD'ers suspect have a whole lot better track record than the one being "analyzed" above.

 

Over this 5-year period, the Twins sadly can "boast" of one pitcher who was drafted, signed and eventually produced a single WAR for the team so far. That guy is the enigmatic one, Kyle Gibson (4.4 WAR). He and Wimmers are the two 1st rounders during the period. Lots of "meh" here, with Tonkin, Wimmers, O'Rourke, Dean, Darnell, Achter, Wheeler. So yeah, it's ugly. We can't count guys on the above list like Thielbar (2.0), Mijares (4.2) Swarzak as an earlier draft (2.9), as Cleveland probably has some of those guys too. Hendriks essentially has zero WAR.

 

Cleveland? Two guys during that 2007-2011 5-year period have come through with better than a 1.0 WAR. Cody Allen (8.2) is almost all of it. Cleveland drafted him in the 16th round in 2010, failed to sign him, and then drafted him again in the 23rd round in 2011. The other success story for them is Cody Anderson (1.8).

 

So, once again, it's easy to draw up a list and lament about how sad the list is. But when we do more comparisons, we gain perspective.

 

I think the positive thing is that technology advancements have greatly improved the ability of evaluators to make good calls on talent, for all teams, and the poor results for both these teams aren't really much of an indictment of anyone we know in my opinion.

[D.C Twins]

How soon?  …. Depends on how fast the twins want to fall out of playoff contention this year

[the_youngster]

 

Just to give readers one comparison covering this 2007-2011 period. I chose Cleveland, a team in our division, Falvey's former stomping ground, our stiffest competition at the moment, and a team I'm guessing most TD'ers suspect have a whole lot better track record than the one being "analyzed" above.

 

Over this 5-year period, the Twins sadly can "boast" of one pitcher who was drafted, signed and eventually produced a single WAR for the team so far. That guy is the enigmatic one, Kyle Gibson (4.4 WAR). He and Wimmers are the two 1st rounders during the period. Lots of "meh" here, with Tonkin, Wimmers, O'Rourke, Dean, Darnell, Achter, Wheeler. So yeah, it's ugly. We can't count guys on the above list like Thielbar (2.0), Mijares (4.2) Swarzak as an earlier draft (2.9), as Cleveland probably has some of those guys too. Hendriks essentially has zero WAR.

 

Cleveland? Two guys during that 2007-2011 5-year period have come through with better than a 1.0 WAR. Cody Allen (8.2) is almost all of it. Cleveland drafted him in the 16th round in 2010, failed to sign him, and then drafted him again in the 23rd round in 2011. The other success story for them is Cody Anderson (1.8).

 

So, once again, it's easy to draw up a list and lament about how sad the list is. But when we do more comparisons, we gain perspective.

 

I think the positive thing is that technology advancements have greatly improved the ability of evaluators to make good calls on talent, for all teams, and the poor results for both these teams aren't really much of an indictment of anyone we know in my opinion.

I appreciate that you took the time to look into Cleveland during this same time. I wanted to do this as well. However, as I started off saying in my post "out of curiosity, I looked into" it without having much time really to do so. It wasn't meant to be an analysis or even that much of a lament really. Off the couch "looking into" style research cannot reveal that much practical information. 

 

The part that really struck me as interesting was the amount of pitchers who never even managed to get the major leagues (or, like BJ Hermsen, never even managed to get to AAA). Finding valuable pitchers who can contribute at the major league level is one thing, but to have so few pitchers manage to rise through the system is what I find peculiar. Again, I would be "curious" to see how that compares to other teams like Cleveland.

[drjim]

 

I wouldn't be opposed to placing Romero in the bullpen so he gets 15-20 innings of MLB experience this year.  

 

What I don't want is to head into the off-season thinking there's no need to sign quality pitchers because Romero, Jorge, and Gonsalves are all coming up soon. Ideally I'd want those guys to be options #7-9 on the depth chart. If they do well and force the Twins' hand to call them up, even better. 

 

7-9 is probably even too high. I could see Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Legit FA, Lesser FA/Minor League Guy, Hughes, May, Mejia at least breaking camp ahead of them on the depth chart.

[drjim]

 

If they are willing to move on from Hughes as a starter, then I can see adding a FA or a SP in a trade. Even w/o him....you have:

 

Santana

Berrios

Santiago

Mejia

Gibson

May

Gonsalves

Jorge

Romero

 

Assuming you let one of Gibson/Santiago go....you think they'd let them both go?......do you think they'll go get one?

 

Mejia won't enter spring training penciled in as one of the 5 starters.

[drjim]

 

and I'm the opposite.

 

next year, when they don't punt the bullpen, and buxton doesn't hit -50 the first month, next year they should be legit contenders maybe.

 

Get these guys experience THIS YEAR, so they are ready next year. Otherwise, we get to not see them next year, because "you can't count on rookies", or some other nonsense.

 

As for the 25% rule, that's been shown to not be real, but teams think it is real, so they act that way. 

 

I'd put Romero in the bullpen in a month or so. I'd put Gonsalves in AAA (like, a month ago), and then have him in MN in August.

 

I appreciate your devotion to saying the 25% is not real and never providing anything to back it up.

[drjim]

 

Isn't this a both-and situation? The bottom three in the rotation are so bad that there will be room for Gonsalves/Jorge/Romero even if they trade for a decent starter. So they can get big-league innings. But at the same time, I think it is completely crazy to rely on any of those three to be an effective contributor in late September or in playoffs, both from a performance and workload standpoint. Going out and getting a legitimate #2-3 starter does not preclude them from giving innings to the young guys.

 

Personally, I think jerking Romero back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen is a bad idea.

 

Really crazy to think they can contribute this year.

 

I don't think putting Romero in the bullpen to end the year, partially to control innings, and then starting him in the rotation next spring is that bad of an idea. Gives him a good taste of the bigs, and then allows him to get back in the minors to work on it.

 

The potential problem would be starting him in the bullpen next season and then trying to move him back to the rotation mid-season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I appreciate your devotion to saying the 25% is not real and never providing anything to back it up.

 

I have previously posted studies on the topic. And someone else posted their research showing there is no evidence either way.

[drjim]

 

Given that Romero, Gonsalves and Jorge have not pitched above the AA level makes any chance of a fall callup unlikely.  If they had started the year at AAA the situation would be different. 

 

The bigger issue is Gonsalves missed 6-7 weeks with his injury. Without that, he would already be in AAA knocking on the door. I bet they slow play him the rest of the year. His numbers back up a conservative approach at the moment, but he could push it soon with several more dominant starts in a row.

[drjim]

 

I have previously posted studies on the topic. And someone else posted their research showing there is no evidence either way.

 

Neither the study you posted (especially) or the other research stated anything definitive about the jumps in innings. They were about other factors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The bigger issue is Gonsalves missed 6-7 weeks with his injury. Without that, he would already be in AAA knocking on the door. I bet they slow play him the rest of the year. His numbers back up a conservative approach at the moment, but he could push it soon with several more dominant starts in a row.

Wouldn't the injury actually open the door to expect Gonsalves in Minnesota in September?  If he had been healthy opening day, he'd almost certainly be viewed as a candidate to be shut down at the end of the minor league season like Berrios 2015, Meyer 2014, etc.  But when he missed the first part of the season, we had to be looking ahead at a plan to keep him active through September.  So I would have probably pushed him to AAA already, so he could potentially be an option to start in August if needed like Duffey circa 2015.  If the AAA transition wasn't smooth, you could always fall back on an AFL stint to give him some more innings instead.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Isn't this a both-and situation? The bottom three in the rotation are so bad that there will be room for Gonsalves/Jorge/Romero even if they trade for a decent starter. So they can get big-league innings. But at the same time, I think it is completely crazy to rely on any of those three to be an effective contributor in late September or in playoffs, both from a performance and workload standpoint. Going out and getting a legitimate #2-3 starter does not preclude them from giving innings to the young guys.

 

Personally, I think jerking Romero back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen is a bad idea.

No one is really saying we'd have to rely on those three, are they?  Just keeping the possibility open.  If we don't promote them to AAA until after the Futures Game or something, we pretty much preclude the possibility.  They can still be aggressive at the trade deadline, but having those guys with some innings under their belts at AAA would give them options to augment that (or cover for it, in case the trade deadline isn't fruitful, which is a definite possibility regardless of our willingness to be aggressive).

[drjim]

 

Wouldn't the injury actually open the door to expect Gonsalves in Minnesota in September?  If he had been healthy opening day, he'd almost certainly be viewed as a candidate to be shut down at the end of the minor league season like Berrios 2015, Meyer 2014, etc.  But when he missed the first part of the season, we had to be looking ahead at a plan to keep him active through September.  So I would have probably pushed him to AAA already, so he could potentially be an option to start in August if needed like Duffey circa 2015.  If the AAA transition wasn't smooth, you could always fall back on an AFL stint to give him some more innings instead.

 

The injury delayed his start and put him behind physically and probably a little performance wise. And he threw 140 innings last year, that would put him on pace for 175ish this year. Skip a start or two and he easily makes it through September. So I don't really see any benefit.

[bird]

 

 

The part that really struck me as interesting was the amount of pitchers who never even managed to get the major leagues (or, like BJ Hermsen, never even managed to get to AAA). Finding valuable pitchers who can contribute at the major league level is one thing, but to have so few pitchers manage to rise through the system is what I find peculiar. Again, I would be "curious" to see how that compares to other teams like Cleveland.

 

Since all teams essentially draft a like number of pitchers, we're getting a good idea on how many fail by looking at the few who succeed. Keep in mind every team has their Wheelers and Tonkins who make it but don't "succeed" as defined by at least 1.0 WAR.

 

We've had a billion threads here on this topic. Comparisons are hard to do. For example, if we add the Royals to the comparison (5 years, 2007-11), they have 6 hits compared to Cleveland with 2 and the Twins 1. But here's the rub: Do the same comparison a year from now, removing the 2007 results and adding 2012. The Royals lose Holland and Duffy and maybe add Strahm, but probably not. And now their list id Montgomery, Hardy, Crowe, and Louis Coleman, and I don't think any of them are even with the Royals, let alone building uo a bunch of WAR. Cleveland will still have just the two Codys on their list. I think one of them is in AAA? The Twins lose nothing from 2007 and add Berrios, Duffey, Rogers, and maybe Chargois. Now however, if you add up the score by adding up cumulative WAR, Cleveland may be the "best" on the basis of 23rd round choice Cody Allen (8.2+ WAR) alone.

 

I take away a few things from an exercise like this:

 

1. You have to be careful about time periods being examined, because a year or two can change everything, and because the jury may still be out. (You wouldn't trade Berrios and his 0.2 WAR for a single player on either Cleveland's or KC's list of hits.)

 

2. Adding up cumulative WAR is a pretty useless exercise in a comparison like this.

 

3. Looking at just the draft tells us something, but not everything. Two of the three subjects of this thread, Romero and Jorge, were not draft choices. 

 

4. Draft order really matters. Two players on the three teams' lists were top 10 selections: the Royal's Duffy and Crowe, and both have produced, maybe not to expectations of fans. No top 10 pitcher selection was made and then failed. SSS caveat of course.

 

5. As hard as comparisons are to make , at least they tell you something, whereas reciting a list of prospects who have failed tells us virtually nothing whatsoever.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The injury delayed his start and put him behind physically and probably a little performance wise. And he threw 140 innings last year, that would put him on pace for 175ish this year. Skip a start or two and he easily makes it through September. So I don't really see any benefit.

I'm not sure I understand.  Right now Gonsalves is on pace to have 117 innings when the minor league season ends.  My point is, if you want him to get more than that, in preparation for 2018, you'd like him to work beyond the end of the minor league season this year.  And given his performance and proximity, that should potentially be in MLB.

 

But, the longer they wait to promote him to AAA, the less likely they will promote him to MLB yet this season.  I know, in theory they could promote him whenever and wherever they want, but we all know in practice it's not as likely with notably less AAA time (think of it as an extension of the general disinclination to promote directly from AA).  And if they wait until September 1st to even consider it, they are probably more likely to push the whole thing off by saying there's not enough time left in the season to justify clearing a 40-man spot, etc.

 

So, to ensure he could be up for September, he should probably be ready for consideration to debut anytime in August.  He's almost certainly already disqualified from making his MLB debut on August 5th, like Duffey did in 2015 (Duffey made his AAA debut on May 23rd that year).  Given his performance, I don't think his injury should have held him back from potentially debuting in early August.  (Obviously if he didn't adapt well to AAA or anything, you wouldn't have to promote him, but it would be nice if the option was more realistically -- not just theoretically -- on the table.)

[drjim]

I'm not sure I understand. Right now Gonsalves is on pace to have 117 innings when the minor league season ends. My point is, if you want him to get more than that, in preparation for 2018, you'd like him to work beyond the end of the minor league season this year. And given his performance and proximity, that should potentially be in MLB.

 

But, the longer they wait to promote him to AAA, the less likely they will promote him to MLB yet this season. I know, in theory they could promote him whenever and wherever they want, but we all know in practice it's not as likely with notably less AAA time (think of it as an extension of the general disinclination to promote directly from AA). And if they wait until September 1st to even consider it, they are probably more likely to push the whole thing off by saying there's not enough time left in the season to justify clearing a 40-man spot, etc.

 

So, to ensure he could be up for September, he should probably be ready for consideration to debut anytime in August. He's almost certainly already disqualified from making his MLB debut on August 5th, like Duffey did in 2015 (Duffey made his AAA debut on May 23rd that year). Given his performance, I don't think his injury should have held him back from potentially debuting in early August. (Obviously if he didn't adapt well to AAA or anything, you wouldn't have to promote him, but it would be nice if the option was more realistically -- not just theoretically -- on the table.)

I'm not sure he's ready for AAA. Too many 5-6 inning starts. I would want to see 3-4 more starts of at lesst 7 (with maybe 1 short start) before I move him to AAA.

 

He has nice k/bb ratios but isn't especially economic with his pitches or perhaps not able to put away AA hitters as efficiently as he needs to. With his profile, it wouldn't fly in the bigs, especially for a team trying to compete.

 

If the Twins fade they might give him some token starts or perhaps they get desperate enough. Otherwise probably headed to Arizona.

 

My point on the injury is that it probably set him back too much to make his debut this year in a normal manner. Too many innings was not going to be a problem if he was healthy, he could have made it through the season.

[drjim]

If Gonsalves doesn't make the majors but ends up in Arizona instead, he'll have enough innings built up to make it through September next year. That is the most important thing for him now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not sure he's ready for AAA. Too many 5-6 inning starts. I would want to see 3-4 more starts of at lesst 7 (with maybe 1 short start) before I move him to AAA.

He has nice k/bb ratios but isn't especially economic with his pitches or perhaps not able to put away AA hitters as efficiently as he needs to. With his profile, it wouldn't fly in the bigs, especially for a team trying to compete.

Interesting.  His IP/GS average since his pitch count debut this year (6 starts) is pretty much equal with Berrios' AA stint in 2015.  His pitches per batter faced are a hair higher, though, which sounds like what you are getting at (3.72 for Berrios, 3.94 for Gonsalves).

 

I have to admit I don't really have a frame of reference for pitches per batter faced, but just eyeballing other AA starters, the following guys have already been promoted to AAA or MLB this season:

 

Luis Castillo (Reds) - 3.93 pitches per batter faced

Andrew Moore (Mariners) - 3.86

Brent Honeywell (Rays) - 3.86

Chance Adams (Yankees) 3.96

 

A reliever, but Burdi was at 3.90 this season before he got hurt.

 

Should Gonsalves' 3.94 really be considered a deal-breaker, just for a promotion to AAA at this point?  It's already an improvement on his 4.18 mark from his AA debut last year.

[drjim]

Interesting. His IP/GS average since his pitch count debut this year (6 starts) is pretty much equal with Berrios' AA stint in 2015. His pitches per batter faced are a hair higher, though, which sounds like what you are getting at (3.72 for Berrios, 3.94 for Gonsalves).

 

I have to admit I don't really have a frame of reference for pitches per batter faced, but just eyeballing other AA starters, the following guys have already been promoted to AAA or MLB this season:

 

Luis Castillo (Reds) - 3.93 pitches per batter faced

Andrew Moore (Mariners) - 3.86

Brent Honeywell (Rays) - 3.86

Chance Adams (Yankees) 3.96

 

A reliever, but Burdi was at 3.90 this season before he got hurt.

 

Should Gonsalves' 3.94 really be considered a deal-breaker, just for a promotion to AAA at this point? It's already an improvement on his 4.18 mark from his AA debut last year.

Certainly not a deal breaker and it is a theory from digging into numbers rather than actual observation. Watching start to start could be telling a different story. And those are counter examples to give my theory pause (though none of them have had mlb success yet). I am thinking about Gonsalves and jis specific profile. Seems he has better command/a little lighter stuff than others cited.

 

Relivers are a different standard to me.

[DocBauer]

I don't think there's much doubt or debate a healthy Gonsalvez would have begun the year at AAA, or would already be there. But at this point, with his stuff, his acumen, his AA experience and success last season and this season, he simply has to be moved and challenged with the opportunity soon.

 

Dies that mean he's ready by August or September? Maybe. Maybe not. But it would make him a hell of a lot closer for 2018 than not affording him the opportunity.

 

I have no problem with Jorge or Romero pitching the whole season at AA. Doesn't mean they have to, but they are young, still improving, and no matter how intrigued we are by Romero, he's the youngest of the bunch and missed 2 full seasons. Excitement and expectation are one thing. Prudence and patience for such a talented young arm is something different.

[John Kelsey]

 

I'm not sure he's ready for AAA. Too many 5-6 inning starts. I would want to see 3-4 more starts of at lesst 7 (with maybe 1 short start) before I move him to AAA.

He has nice k/bb ratios but isn't especially economic with his pitches or perhaps not able to put away AA hitters as efficiently as he needs to. With his profile, it wouldn't fly in the bigs, especially for a team trying to compete.

If the Twins fade they might give him some token starts or perhaps they get desperate enough. Otherwise probably headed to Arizona.

My point on the injury is that it probably set him back too much to make his debut this year in a normal manner. Too many innings was not going to be a problem if he was healthy, he could have made it through the season.

 

This is really nitpicking. His start tonight should be his last in AA. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, Gonsalves threw 7 IP last night for the third consecutive start. 25 batters faced, 101 pitches.

[drjim]

FWIW, Gonsalves threw 7 IP last night for the third consecutive start. 25 batters faced, 101 pitches.

I imagine they move him with 1-2 more starts of 7ip.

[drjim]

This is really nitpicking. His start tonight should be his last in AA.

Maybe nitpicking, but also important if he is going to be successful.

 

To be clear, I like Gonsalves, think he has a legit chance to be an effective 3/4 starter for multiple years, likely by early next year. But with his profile, he should efficiently carve up AA basically every start. I would say he's about there, but I am supportive of a little conservatism here, especially because I'm skeptical he has much to add this season.

[Vanimal46]

Much like drjim, I'm in the conservative camp when it comes to Gonsalves. He'll probably get the call to AAA soon enough, but whatever the FO is looking for, he must not have mastered it yet in Chattanooga.