Article: Coming Soon: Starting Pitching (But How Soon?)

[Seth Stohs]

Anyone who is reading this site is a big Minnesota Twins fan. Anyone who is a big Twins fan realizes that this team needs pitching. A lot of pitching. The bullpen has certainly had its fair share of implosions this season. At the same time, it seems those bullpen implosions have had some direct relation to a short start.

 

The Twins have called up a couple of solid relief pitcher prospects in the last ten days (Alan Busenitz and Trevor Hildenberger). But they need starting pitching. Right now, it’s Jose Berrios, Ervin Santana and question mark after question mark.

 

Hector Santiago will return to the rotation on Tuesday after spending the last three weeks on the DL. Kyle Gibson has been better in his last three or four starts, but he remains inconsistent. Adalberto Mejia has shown us glimpses of what will potentially be a reliable mid-rotation starter. At just 23, he’s got a chance. Adam Wilk. Nik Turley. Dillon Gee. The revolving door continues.Unfortunately, there aren’t really AAA starting pitchers that are ready yet. There are three guys in Chattanooga who have fans talking, and for good reason. They may not be ready today, but in a month, it could be a different story.

 

The Lookouts have had three starting pitchers who have been really good in the past month or so. Today we’ll talk about them and try to figure out if they are close to being ready to contribute in 2017, or if we’ll have to wait.

 

 

Fernando Romero

 

The hard-throwing righty who was chosen the Twins #1 prospect by Twins Daily before the season has been solid for the Lookouts. In 14 games this season, he is 7-5 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. In 78.2 innings, he has given up 70 hits, walked 30 and struck out 76. These are solid numbers, especially when you consider that 84% of his batters faced this season have been older than he is. He won’t turn 23 until Christmas Eve.

 

In his last six starts, he is 5-0 with a 1.16 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .183/.266/.282 (.548) off of him in that stretch.

 

We know about Romero’s stuff. He’s got a big fastball that sits 95-96 and touches 98 at times. He’s got a terrific slider that can be devastating at times. He also has worked on his changeup, which remains inconsistent, but it’s something he really works at.

 

The nice thing has been seeing improvement. Opponents’ OPS against him by month shows it. Opponents posted an .656 OPS off him in April, then .632 in May, and so far he’s at .617 in June.

 

Last year, he was shut down at 90.1 innings (Between Ft. Myers and Cedar Rapids). Let’s assume he threw another 25 innings in extended spring training. That’s a total of 115 innings. If there are some who subscribe to there being concern when a young pitcher throws more than 25% more innings from year-to-year, then Romero should be shut down when he reaches about 143 innings in 2017. He is currently at 78.2 which means he has approximately 60-65 innings to work with before the end of the season. If he averages six innings, he could make 10-11 more starts which puts them right to playoff time.

 

Romero was added to the 40-man roster last November and is on his first option year. One way to keep or control his innings may be calling him up to the Twins as a relief pitcher for the last month or two of the season, if the Twins are competing. There may also be value in having him pitch in the Southern League playoffs if the Twins are out of contention at that time.

 

Felix Jorge

 

Jorge turned 23 years old in January, a little over a month after being added to the Twins 40-man roster. The Twins were able to sneak him through a Rule 5 draft a year earlier, but would have lost him had he not been protected this year. He had a strong season in 2016 between Ft. Myers and Chattanooga.

 

After a slow start this year, Jorge has taken off. Overall in 14 starts, he is 8-1 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. In 85.2 innings, he has given up 89 hits, walked 22 and struck out 61. Seventy percent of his batters faced have been older than him. Like Romero, Jorge has continued to put up better numbers each month. The OPS against him in April was .853. In May, that dropped to .705, and in June so far, it’s just .676.

 

While he is not a strikeout guy, Jorge attacks the strike zone. He has a good three-pitch mix and is able to throw strikes with each of them. His fastball sits 91-92 and touches 93. He has a good curve and a good changeup. He will give up some hits because of how many strikes he throws, but he doesn’t hurt himself with walks. He also is able to work deeper into games consistently.

 

In his last six starts, he is 4-0 with a 2.41 ERA. He’s walked just 1.3 per nine (2.3 overall) and struck out 7.0 per nine (6.4 overall). Oppenents have hit just .178/.229/.326 (.555) off him during that time frame.

 

Jorge has been remarkably durable and consistent the last three years. In 2017, left-handed batters have hit .272/.320/.411 (.731) off of him. Right-handers have hit .271/.322/.406 (.728).

 

A year ago, he threw a combined 167.1 innings so he should have no limitations in 2017. If he continues to pitch well, he could make some starts late in the season for the Twins since he’s on the 40-man roster. Again, he can remain in Chattanooga if the Twins are not in contention and pitch in the playoffs for the Lookouts.

 

Stephen Gonsalves

 

Gonsalves was the Twins (and Twins Daily’s) choice for Pitcher of the Year in 2016 when he put up remarkable numbers between Ft. Myers and Chattanooga. He was Twins Daily’s #2 prospect in the preseason. He was invited to Twins big league spring training where he impressed until a shoulder injury cost him the last few weeks of spring training and the first six of seven weeks of the regular season.

 

However, since he has returned, he has been very good. He has made seven starts. He’s 3-3 with a 2.85 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. In 41 innings, he has given up just 26 hits, walked nine and struck out 51.

 

The left-hander understands how to pitch and makes quick adjustments even during a game, or within an at-bat. The one concern with him last year, even while dominating at AA, was a high walk total. To this point, he has really reduced his walk rate, down to just 2.0 BB/9.

 

His fastball has been between 91 and 94 this spring. His changeup is talked about as being great, and it gets swings and misses. He added a slider/cutter before the 2016 season, and that has been a swing-and-miss pitch for him as well. It has also helped him against right-handers. While lefties are hitting .257/.316/.429 (.744) off of him in just 38 plate appearances, right-handers have hit .149/.198/.307 off of him (121 plate appearances).

 

 

LAST SIX STARTS

 

I’m going to post this here again, just so they’re right next to each other:

 

Jorge: 4-0, 2.41 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, .247/.279/.361 (.640)

Romero: 5-0, 1.16 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, .183/.266/.282 (.548)

Gonsalves: 3-2, 2.68 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9, 11.7 K/9, .178/.229/.326 (.555)

 

 

0N 40-MAN:

 

Jorge and Romero

 

Not on 40-man:

 

Gonsalves

 

 

SUMMARY

 

After some early-season inconsistency Fernando Romero has been quite strong the last six weeks. He’s been dominant. Opponents haven’t hit him. He’s been keeping runners off base. His stuff continues to improve.

 

Jorge has been good too. He’s been pretty consistent, and while he doesn’t strike out too many, and gives up some hits, he doesn’t hurt himself.

 

Gonsalves is a good combination of stuff and stats. He’s left-handed and sitting in the low 90s. He’s got the three-plus pitches. He has come back and started right where he left off.

 

In my opinion, Gonsalves is the closest to MLB ready. He’s also the one who isn’t on the 40-man roster. Romero is likely the one with the highest ceiling because of the velocity, but he has work to do, pitches to improve. Meanwhile, I think Jorge has to be a step-by-step type. He can become a mid-rotation type of starter, more likely a back-end type. He needs time at AAA whereas you might be able to make a case that Romero and Gonsalves could be guys promoted right from AA.

 

But then again, two years ago at this time, we all wanted Jose Berrios called up directly from AA Chattanooga, saying that he was clearly ready based on his statistics. Instead, he went to AAA, and for longer than we all thought he should or wanted him to. Just now this year, he has become what we thought he could become. So there is a cautionary tale of us assuming a guy can make the jump from AA to the big leagues… or even from AAA to the big leagues. This game is hard. Big leaguers are really good.

 

But all three of these pitchers will likely pitch in the big leagues. They have different ceilings, but all three of them will get their time. Like I said, I feel like Jorge could be best served by spending the full season in Chattanooga. I think that Romero should spend the full season starting in Chattanooga, unless the Twins are competing and he can contribute out of the bullpen. With Gonsalves, I think a couple more starts in AA and he should move up to AAA. If the Twins pitching situation isn’t much improved, I could see him making starts for the Twins by early August.

 

 

These three are exciting prospects. What do you think their paths should be?

 

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[John Kelsey]

Gonsalves should be the first one promoted and it should have already happened by now. If/when he puts together some good starts in Rochester, call him up. 

[Oxtung]

Pitchers don't skip AAA even outside the Twins organization. One or two might head to AAA then get a cup of coffee late this season but only if the Twins remain in contention. Expect to see all 3 begin at AAA next season as well.

 

I did some reasearch on this and was going to type something up but haven't had the time and don't expect to soon. Of the 30 recent (last 5 seasons or so) starting pitchers I looked into only 2 skipped AAA. One of which was Dylan Bundy, which seems due mostly to his signing a MLB contract and his unbelievable potential, which I think we can all agree the Twins pitchers don't fall into either category.

[the_youngster]

Out of curiosity, I looked into the long term inability of the team to develop pitching (which coincided with the franchise's 2011 crash that has lingered for over half a decade now). Just looking at prospects who went through Fort Myers between 2007 and 2011 (of course excluding anyone from the MLB team making rehab starts) is pretty revealing:

 

Kyle Waldrop
Jeff Manship
Yohan Pino
Rob Delaney
Armando Gabino
Anthony Swarzak
Alex Burnett
Cole DeVries
Deolis Guerra
Matt Fox
Tyler Robertson
Anthony Slama
Jose Mijares
Liam Hendriks
Kyle Gibson
Alex Wimmers
Logan Darnell
Pat Dean
Andrew Albers
Caleb Thielbar
AJ Achter
Michael Tonkin
Ryan O’Rourke
Edgar Ibarra

 

5 Years of prospects and only 24 pitchers made it to the major leagues. A few of those guys lasted a season or two of average production out of the bullpen. Several pitched less than 10 innings in the major leagues. Only a couple are still in the majors, let alone with the Twins. Half a decade of pitching development and Gibson is the only potential success there (for the Twins at least. Hendriks has found some decent success the last couple of years, but with other teams of course). 2012 marked a shift in the team's pitching development philosophy, and the jury is still out on a lot of those guys. But fingers crossed for the 2012-2017 batch. 

[RaoulDuke]

 

Out of curiosity, I looked into the long term inability of the team to develop pitching (which coincided with the franchise's 2011 crash that has lingered for over half a decade now). Just looking at prospects who went through Fort Myers between 2007 and 2011 (of course excluding anyone from the MLB team making rehab starts) is pretty revealing:

 

Kyle Waldrop
Jeff Manship
Yohan Pino
Rob Delaney
Armando Gabino
Anthony Swarzak
Alex Burnett
Cole DeVries
Deolis Guerra
Matt Fox
Tyler Robertson
Anthony Slama
Jose Mijares
Liam Hendriks
Kyle Gibson
Alex Wimmers
Logan Darnell
Pat Dean
Andrew Albers
Caleb Thielbar
AJ Achter
Michael Tonkin
Ryan O’Rourke
Edgar Ibarra

 

5 Years of prospects and only 24 pitchers made it to the major leagues. A few of those guys lasted a season or two of average production out of the bullpen. Several pitched less than 10 innings in the major leagues. Only a couple are still in the majors, let alone with the Twins. Half a decade of pitching development and Gibson is the only potential success there (for the Twins at least. Hendriks has found some decent success the last couple of years, but with other teams of course). 2012 marked a shift in the team's pitching development philosophy, and the jury is still out on a lot of those guys. But fingers crossed for the 2012-2017 batch. 

 

That is a sad list

[Dantes929]

I don't really love cautionary tales like "look what happened to Berrios"   and go ahead and add May to the anecdotal evidence that young pitchers can't succeed right away and I still don't like it.    Both of them over threw and were not doing the things they did in the minors that got them there in the first place.     That doesn't mean Gonsalves will have major jitters that he won't overcome for another 3 months if he is promoted.    I also don't understand how more months of doing the same domination is going to make them any more prepared than they are now.    If they need to get their feet wet first then do it now.    Seriously, if Bert Blyleven came here today as an 18 year old how long would it take to get him to the majors?    I hope Santiago and Meija and Gibson do well but I am not super confident that they would do better than the three listed above.

[The Wise One]

 

Out of curiosity, I looked into the long term inability of the team to develop pitching (which coincided with the franchise's 2011 crash that has lingered for over half a decade now). Just looking at prospects who went through Fort Myers between 2007 and 2011 (of course excluding anyone from the MLB team making rehab starts) is pretty revealing:

 

Kyle Waldrop
Jeff Manship
Yohan Pino
Rob Delaney
Armando Gabino
Anthony Swarzak
Alex Burnett
Cole DeVries
Deolis Guerra
Matt Fox
Tyler Robertson
Anthony Slama
Jose Mijares
Liam Hendriks
Kyle Gibson
Alex Wimmers
Logan Darnell
Pat Dean
Andrew Albers
Caleb Thielbar
AJ Achter
Michael Tonkin
Ryan O’Rourke
Edgar Ibarra

 

5 Years of prospects and only 24 pitchers made it to the major leagues. A few of those guys lasted a season or two of average production out of the bullpen. Several pitched less than 10 innings in the major leagues. Only a couple are still in the majors, let alone with the Twins. Half a decade of pitching development and Gibson is the only potential success there (for the Twins at least. Hendriks has found some decent success the last couple of years, but with other teams of course). 2012 marked a shift in the team's pitching development philosophy, and the jury is still out on a lot of those guys. But fingers crossed for the 2012-2017 batch. 

The past is what it is. The people in charge of drafting, developing, and oversight have all changed. 

[jimbo92107]

Seth summed it up just about perfectly. Gonsalves is the most ready, appears to have the most mature approach + stuff + command. Having three out pitches is nice.

 

I can see using Romero a little in the pen if the Twins are late in contention, but I'm a little leery of pushing a guy's pitch limit, even two years post TJ. Romero throws so hard...

 

Jorge is going to be fun to watch over the next year. He keeps getting a little better all the time, and he appears to be really durable. Let him dominate in AAA before he comes up.

[HitInAPinch]

Fernando Romero: The hard-throwing writer....

 

Has he been published?

[RaoulDuke]

 

The past is what it is. The people in charge of drafting, developing, and oversight have all changed. 

But they haven't really, TR was jettisoned but many of the scouts/ minors guys were not.  Which scares me. 

[gman]

Berrios, who probably came with more hype and talent(?) then the three listed here, made 36 starts over parts of 4 seasons at Triple A. His struggles at the major league level are fresh enough that it should give one pause at the thought of promoting directly form Double A. 

 

I am more long term development than many who post here but I could see bringing up all three in September after the minor league seasons ends. The purpose would be to help get over the jitters and not for any expectations of a major role on the team this year. Throw a couple innings out of the bullpen, evaluate and see what they need to work on more next year at Triple A. Usually command. since they all seem to have the stuff to make it.

 

I believe next years rotation starts with Santana (unless traded) Berrios and Mejia. I think they will need at least 5 more starters to get through 2018 which should include Jorge, Gonzalves and Romero at some point earning their stripes.

[The Wise One]

 

But they haven't really, TR was jettisoned but many of the scouts/ minors guys were not.  Which scares me. 

There have been articles which I am not going to bother to look up and footnote for those that disagree about the new front office's approach to pitching and development.   You either follow the management plan or you are gone.  It is just that easy

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't really love cautionary tales like "look what happened to Berrios"   and go ahead and add May to the anecdotal evidence that young pitchers can't succeed right away and I still don't like it.    Both of them over threw and were not doing the things they did in the minors that got them there in the first place.     That doesn't mean Gonsalves will have major jitters that he won't overcome for another 3 months if he is promoted.    I also don't understand how more months of doing the same domination is going to make them any more prepared than they are now.    If they need to get their feet wet first then do it now.    Seriously, if Bert Blyleven came here today as an 18 year old how long would it take to get him to the majors?    I hope Santiago and Meija and Gibson do well but I am not super confident that they would do better than the three listed above.

 

Totally different era, hard to compare baseball in the 70s to baseball today. The hitters are better and they have access to way more info. Today's game is about knowing how to pitch, not being good at throwing.

 

I'm not throwing shade at guys in the 70s - just saying that with technology and the extreme professionalization of the sport, it isn't easy to throw an 18 year old into the fire.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Given that Romero will at some point be shut down due to innings, the pen actually does make sense. He may learn a thing or two and collect a major league check for a couple months. Not a bad deal.

 

Gonsalves appears most ready, but I don't see him (or any of them really) skipping AAA.  I suspect some moves are made at some point (with Gonsalves likely the first to book a flight), but I don't think all 3 get sent to Rochester.

[mikelink45]

Bring them up. Imagine what we might have today if we could have had starts that did not belong to Wilks, Tepesch,  and Turley, but one one of these three.  We might have lost all those games, but we might also have a starter in the rotation who we could see as a long term addition to Berrios and Santana.

[Han Joelo]

I don't pretend to understand the psyche of pitchers, but getting nervous, losing command, and getting shelled in their debut, while naked, is probably the worst Peter Brady nightmare of every pitching prospect.  I'll leave it to the experts to decide when a guy is ready to live that nightmare and get over it if it happens.  Doing it wrong is a huge setback, I think.

 

These guys do seem closer and more viable than they did even a couple three weeks ago when discussing potential draft picks.  It's making the Lewis pick look better and better.

[ThejacKmp]

I know this season the Twins are competitive and our focus should be on that but man, I'm excited for next year. By June you should see all three of these guys pushing for a rotation spot. With May back, Mejia a year older and Berrios and Santana still in the fold, the Twins could have a really nice rotation. And that's not even mentioning the Thorpedo, who seems like a 2018 cup of coffee candidate.

 

I get wanting to push them now and I get that you can't choose when you compete but it seems like a real stretch to push them fast this year. I don't want to see any of them until September 1st, even if that means the Twins fade in the summer heat.

[Blackjack]

It will be interesting to see how this management team handles these young pitchers and their call-ups, regardless if the Twins are in contention or not.

 

When you factor in pitch limits I would guess we won't see any of them this year.

[adorduan]

Seth, that would be one heck of a coincidence if both Romero and Jorge had the exact same OPS against for 3 months.........

[rdehring]

Thanks Seth, great analysis and good to know there is hope on the horizon!

[clone52]

 

I don't really love cautionary tales like "look what happened to Berrios"   and go ahead and add May to the anecdotal evidence that young pitchers can't succeed right away and I still don't like it.    Both of them over threw and were not doing the things they did in the minors that got them there in the first place.     That doesn't mean Gonsalves will have major jitters that he won't overcome for another 3 months if he is promoted.    I also don't understand how more months of doing the same domination is going to make them any more prepared than they are now.    If they need to get their feet wet first then do it now.    Seriously, if Bert Blyleven came here today as an 18 year old how long would it take to get him to the majors?    I hope Santiago and Meija and Gibson do well but I am not super confident that they would do better than the three listed above.

 

Its not a blanket statement that pitchers can't succeed right away, but what if they see some of the same things in these guys that they saw in Berrios before he came up?

[nicksaviking]

I'd also pick Romero and then let him learn in the pen if like most other pitchers, he isn't quite ready for the big stage.

 

But I have a hard time seeing any of these guys jumping Aaron Slegers in the pecking order. Slegers has been the team's prototypical college-drafted good soldier. Unspectacular and probably does not have the stuff to be a MLB starter, he still shows good command and is of a more traditional age and level of Twins call ups.

 

[bird]

 

That is a sad list

 

 

Fans of every team in baseball think that their sad list is unique. It's not.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don't really love cautionary tales like "look what happened to Berrios"   and go ahead and add May to the anecdotal evidence that young pitchers can't succeed right away and I still don't like it.    Both of them over threw and were not doing the things they did in the minors that got them there in the first place.     That doesn't mean Gonsalves will have major jitters that he won't overcome for another 3 months if he is promoted.    I also don't understand how more months of doing the same domination is going to make them any more prepared than they are now.    If they need to get their feet wet first then do it now.    Seriously, if Bert Blyleven came here today as an 18 year old how long would it take to get him to the majors?    I hope Santiago and Meija and Gibson do well but I am not super confident that they would do better than the three listed above.

 

They're all individual cases, of course. Radke obviously did alright in his jump from AA to the big leagues, though that took a little time too.

 

My point with that paragraph is that all we have are stats and numbers and a few scouting reports... and so much more goes into evaluating when a player is ready to come up. Some of it is the "intangibles."  So, I just don't think we can look at the numbers and say "yes, he's ready," or, to be fair, "No, he's not ready." 

[Vanimal46]

I'm a bit jaded by the lack of success from other recent SP call-ups... And don't want to rely on prospects like Gonsalves, Romero, or Jorge having immediate success while the team is trying to contend. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'd also pick Romero and then let him learn in the pen if like most other pitchers, he isn't quite ready for the big stage.

 

But I have a hard time seeing any of these guys jumping Aaron Slegers in the pecking order. Slegers has been the team's prototypical college-drafted good soldier. Unspectacular and probably does not have the stuff to be a MLB starter, he still shows good command and is of a more traditional age and level of Twins call ups.

 

I wouldn't count Slegers out on potentially being a solid starter in the big leagues at all. I think he could be a guy is who just solid for a long time. He actually touches 94 at times, so it's not like he's a soft tosser by any means. I think he could play into the future, at least as a real possibility which is likely why they haven't pushed him up to the big leagues yet. 

[Shaitan]

When does Gonsalves have to be added to the 40 man? This offseason?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm a bit jaded by the lack of success from other recent SP call-ups... And don't want to rely on prospects like Gonsalves, Romero, or Jorge having immediate success while the team is trying to contend. 

 

and I'm the opposite.

 

next year, when they don't punt the bullpen, and buxton doesn't hit -50 the first month, next year they should be legit contenders maybe.

 

Get these guys experience THIS YEAR, so they are ready next year. Otherwise, we get to not see them next year, because "you can't count on rookies", or some other nonsense.

 

As for the 25% rule, that's been shown to not be real, but teams think it is real, so they act that way. 

 

I'd put Romero in the bullpen in a month or so. I'd put Gonsalves in AAA (like, a month ago), and then have him in MN in August.

[Teddy]

Seth, I found this a bit curious. For both Romero and Jorge, you have the same OPS in each of the first three months:

 

The OPS against him in April was .853. In May, that dropped to .705, and in June so far, it’s just .676.

 

That seems statistically unlikely, and I wonder if it's an oversight?

[Vanimal46]

 

and I'm the opposite.

 

next year, when they don't punt the bullpen, and buxton doesn't hit -50 the first month, next year they should be legit contenders maybe.

 

Get these guys experience THIS YEAR, so they are ready next year. Otherwise, we get to not see them next year, because "you can't count on rookies", or some other nonsense.

 

As for the 25% rule, that's been shown to not be real, but teams think it is real, so they act that way. 

 

I'd put Romero in the bullpen in a month or so. I'd put Gonsalves in AAA (like, a month ago), and then have him in MN in August.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to placing Romero in the bullpen so he gets 15-20 innings of MLB experience this year.  

 

What I don't want is to head into the off-season thinking there's no need to sign quality pitchers because Romero, Jorge, and Gonsalves are all coming up soon. Ideally I'd want those guys to be options #7-9 on the depth chart. If they do well and force the Twins' hand to call them up, even better.