Article: Searching For Relief

[Otto von Ballpark]

Burdi, Bard, and probably Reed should be on the horizon. Probably a bit too early to bring them up yet. That would be especially true of Burdi and Bard. I'd prefer them to get some AAA innings first. Even that is assuming they can stay healthy.

Burdi is already out with TJ surgery.

 

Bard is still buried at AA.

 

Help us, Jake Reed, you're our only hope. (And John Curtiss)

[wsnydes]

 

Burdi is already out with TJ surgery.

Bard is still buried at AA.

Help us, Jake Reed, you're our only hope. (And John Curtiss)

Ah, that's right.  I forgot about Burdi and his TJ.  Thanks for the correction.

[drjim]

I would imagine Reed is up pretty soon, perhaps after the all star break. He was the young guy the front office liked most in spring training. Just needed to give him some games to get healthy.

 

Does anyone know anything about Bard other than his k rate jump this year? He was so meh last year and this seemed to come from nowhere. I'm not opposed to giving him a shot, but I just wonder what is going on, and if his numbers might be more deceiving than we realize.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Bard apparently has some good spin rate:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/25111-depue-gonsalves-on-spin-rates-haley-on-his-role/

[Otto von Ballpark]

Don't know if this deserves it's own thread, so I'll just put it here:

 

Vargas optioned to AAA, Adrianza activated

 

So we still have 13 pitchers. On the horizon:

 

Haley set to make a rehab start in AAA today (Tuesday)

[drjim]

Don't know if this deserves it's own thread, so I'll just put it here:

 

Vargas optioned to AAA, Adrianza activated

 

So we still have 13 pitchers. On the horizon:

 

Haley set to make a rehab start in AAA today (Tuesday)

Does put Vargas on pace to be recalled right after the all star break. I assume they go back down to 12 pitchers at that time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Does put Vargas on pace to be recalled right after the all star break. I assume they go back down to 12 pitchers at that time.

On that note, last week I heard that Molitor said the Breslow DL stint was timed so he'd get a little extra time off with the all star break too. Not sure if that was just an empty statement to add authenticity to the transaction, but in theory that could mean another pitcher would have to be removed by that time to activate Breslow.

[drjim]

On that note, last week I heard that Molitor said the Breslow DL stint was timed so he'd get a little extra time off with the all star break too. Not sure if that was just an empty statement to add authenticity to the transaction, but in theory that could mean another pitcher would have to be removed by that time to activate Breslow.

Just what this team needs.

[Vanimal46]

On that note, last week I heard that Molitor said the Breslow DL stint was timed so he'd get a little extra time off with the all star break too. Not sure if that was just an empty statement to add authenticity to the transaction, but in theory that could mean another pitcher would have to be removed by that time to activate Breslow.

Pressly can be sent down again. I just don't see him turning things around this year.

 

This may not be a popular opinion, but I could also see a case for Duffey getting sent down to regroup. 15 ER in his last 15 IP is a cause for concern.

[drjim]

Pressly can be sent down again. I just don't see him turning things around this year.

 

This may not be a popular opinion, but I could also see a case for Duffey getting sent down to regroup. 15 ER in his last 15 IP is a cause for concern.

I don't disagree on either, but I would think they'd give Duffey a chance to regroup over the break before sending him down.

 

Pressly is unlikely to stay past the break.

[Mike Sixel]

Saw this. I like Adrianza but I don't think he's exactly what we need. We need a RH bat to play first for Mauer on occasion and DH or play in the OF some. Looks to me like there's 3-4 games a week for a guy like that.

 

So who? Two thoughts. Trade Santiago for a veteran decent bat. Santiago is talented enough that some team looking for a starter will take a chance on him. You can throw in Vargas if necessary and should be able to get a decent, not great but decent, RH veteran bat.

 

Or, bring up Garver or Park. Garver is more deserving based on AAA stats and he gives you a backup 3B and third C. I hear he's been playing some LF so he can even be the 5th OF. I know he should "play every day for his development" but that means AAA right now and I think they can find him a day a week at 1B, 2 days at DH, and a day in the OF or at C. Give him 150-200 ABs this year in the second half and see if he can be the second C next year. Maybe he can be the personal catcher for Berrios or Mejia. Park hasn't lit AAA on fire but he hit in Spring Training and this may be mental more than physical. I like Granite but there's no room in the OF unless you dump Grossman and his .388 OBP and 110 OPS+, so he's the AAA injury reserve for the 3 starters.

 

I like all of these options better than Vargas. Fun guy, looks great when he's hot, which isn't often, and overall is a 240/.300/.730 kind of guy who can only play 1B. Those guys are not hard to find. We need a bat to hit in the 5/6 ole behind Kepler against RH pitching, and behind Sano against LH pitching. Vargas just isn't that guy and it looks like he never will be. I think we've seen the last of him for the Twins absent injury.

 

My fantasy is Andrew McCutchen for a package that includes Santiago, Vargas and a good pitching prospect. Never happen, that's why they call it a fantasy. Realistically, David Freese, Daniel Nava, Josh Harrison and Yangervis Solarte might all work and might all be available for a Santiago/Gibson plus decent prospect or 2 decent but nor great prospect kind of packages. Or maybe Jed Lawrie for Adrianza and a prospect.

Why would they trade for a mediocre rental hitter right now? That makes no sense to me.

[wsnydes]

Why would they trade for a mediocre rental hitter right now? That makes no sense to me.

Not only that, but deal a pitching prospect to get him? That makes even less sense to me.

[jorgenswest]

On that note, last week I heard that Molitor said the Breslow DL stint was timed so he'd get a little extra time off with the all star break too. Not sure if that was just an empty statement to add authenticity to the transaction, but in theory that could mean another pitcher would have to be removed by that time to activate Breslow.

I think there was authenticity in the fact that they hurried Hughes' return. He had another relief appearance scheduled in AAA but was brought back early when Breslow needed to be put on DL.

[old nurse]

 

 

I still like the fantasy of picking up McCutchen....

I like the fantasy of picking up Archer,  Kershaw and a couple of relievers from teams going nowhere  Reality does set in.for spare parts in the system. Pick up Cozart as a rental to give Polanco a breather, Then there is reality

Edited July 4, 2017 by old nurse

[DJSim22]

 

Saw this. I like Adrianza but I don't think he's exactly what we need.  We need a RH bat to play first for Mauer on occasion and DH or play in the OF some.  Looks to me like there's 3-4 games a week for a guy like that.

 

So who? Two thoughts.  Trade Santiago for a veteran decent bat.  Santiago is talented enough that some team looking for a starter will take a chance on him. You can throw in Vargas if necessary and should be able to get a decent, not great but decent, RH veteran bat.

 

Or, bring up Garver or Park. Garver is more deserving based on AAA stats and he gives you a backup 3B and third C.  I hear he's been playing some LF so he can even be the 5th OF. I know he should "play every day for his development" but that means AAA right now and I think they can find him a day a week at 1B,  2 days at DH, and a day in the OF or at C.  Give him 150-200 ABs this year in the second half and see if he can be the second C next year.  Maybe he can be the personal catcher for Berrios or Mejia.  Park hasn't lit AAA on fire but he hit in Spring Training and this may be mental more than physical. I like Granite but there's no room in the OF unless you dump Grossman and his .388 OBP and 110 OPS+, so he's the AAA injury reserve for the 3 starters. 

 

I like all of these options better than Vargas.  Fun guy, looks great when he's hot, which isn't often, and overall is a 240/.300/.730 kind of guy who can only play 1B. Those guys are not hard to find. We need a bat to hit in the 5/6 ole behind Kepler against RH pitching, and behind Sano against LH pitching. Vargas just isn't that guy and it looks like he never will be. I think we've seen the last of him for the Twins absent injury.   

 

My fantasy is Andrew McCutchen for a package that includes Santiago, Vargas and a good pitching prospect. Never happen, that's why they call it a fantasy.  Realistically, David Freese, Daniel Nava, Josh Harrison and Yangervis Solarte might all work and might all be available for a Santiago/Gibson plus decent prospect or 2 decent but nor great prospect kind of packages.   Or maybe Jed Lawrie for Adrianza and a prospect. 

 

You want to replace Vargas with Park?  At best it is an even swap. 

 

A package with Gibson and Santiago plus a pitching prospect is probably less desirable than just a pitching prospect to teams selling. 

[yarnivek1972]

 

Like I said, it's a fantasy but not a reality. that's why my earlier post listed osme RH vets that we might actually be able to get. Seems like with Santiago experiencing some "upper thoracic back pain and discomfort" and now on the DL, he may be one step closer to the trading block when that goes away. 

 

 

It means he's damaged goods and likely untradeable.

[kab21]

 

Maybe it's time for the Duffy as a RP experiment to end. He looks tired and is pitching like a tired arm. This might be the perfect time to send him to AAA and stretch him out as a starter. Busenitz and Hilkdenberger look like they can stay with the MLB club to replace Duffy and Breslow (or Belisle).  Get Duffy 3 starts in AAA so he's ready and then trade Santiago or Gibson, or replace them if they remain ineffective (Although Gibson maaaay be coming around). We need SP options behind the 5 we now start and we don't really have any at AAA.  

Tired?

Perhaps it is due to his workload. I wouldn't call the experiment failed. He has struggled lately for sure though.

I think you underestimate the length of time needed to stretch out his arm after relieving for 3+ months. And I think you skip the issue of also needing RP'ers.

[jorgenswest]

How much time would it take to stretch out Duffey? He is probably good into the mid 30s today. Seems like the Royals stretched outs their Duffy to a point where he was into the 6th inning by his third start. Peacock, Delgado, Montgomery and others have done it this season without going to the minors.

 

The stretching out part and the third pitch part are empty words. Pitchers have been successful throwing a breaking ball and fastball over 90% of the time. Relievers are getting stretched about by other teams without going to the minors.

 

Duffey is valuable to the bullpen but the cost of acquiring a starter is much greater than the cost of a 7th inning reliever. Duffey had the best SIERA and xFIP among their starters last year leading to the best projections among starters entering this year. His ERA awful last year was but the combination of poor defense as shown by a huge drop in double play rate and his unsustainably high hr/fb shouldn't be ignored. To me, he is much more worthy of a half season of starts than any other option they have in the organization.

 

The Twins have an opportunity to see Hildenberger in the Duffey role and Duffey in the Hughes/Turley/Jorge/Matt/Tepesch role. If Hildenberger can come close to matching Duffey, I think Duffey will out perform the others. Maybe they will learn that both are valuable pieces of the 2018 team.

[Doomtints]

Even after coming back down to earth, Duffey's numbers as a reliever are still better than his numbers as a starter. 

 

One should also consider that at the end of the day, he is still only credited with two losses, his ERA+ and WAA show him as average, and his FIP looks rather shiny. He is also the most used -- and thus most trusted-- reliever on the team.

 

Not sure why we'd blow that up to make him a starter with the the plan to trade him away. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not sure why we'd blow that up to make him a starter with the the plan to trade him away. 

I don't think anyone here has made any mention of trading Duffey.

[jorgenswest]

Even after coming back down to earth, Duffey's numbers as a reliever are still better than his numbers as a starter. 

 

One should also consider that at the end of the day, he is still only credited with two losses, his ERA+ and WAA show him as average, and his FIP looks rather shiny. He is also the most used -- and thus most trusted-- reliever on the team.

 

Not sure why we'd blow that up to make him a starter with the the plan to trade him away.

 

I have no thought of trading him. The Twins need pitching. If he can be a starter next year, the cost of replacing his 6th/7th inning role in terms of prospects or free agent dollars is cheaper than adding a starter. To that end, they can give a Hildenberger (or a different young pitcher) his relief role now while he shows in the rotation whether the huge discrepancies between xFIP and ERA was really poor defense and luck or whether his ERA was a better indicator of skill than xFIP and SIERA. There is a very good chance that his ERA from 2016 was not a good indicator of his skill level.

 

Other teams find ways to stretch out pitchers. There are solid starting pitchers living on a fastball and breaking ball over 90% of the time. These seem to be two paradigms that Molitor and Allen don't want to test.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If you only look at the extremes, it's an easy decision.  If Duffey is doomed to repeat his 2016 ERA as a starter? Sure, put him in the pen.  Or if he can repeat 2015?  Starter, no prob.  Or if Duffey is going to rebound to his early season 2017 effectiveness in relief?  Sure, he could be a pen weapon.

 

But I think the reality is more muddled.  Given his profile, I think he probably settles in closer to average in whatever role we put him in.  In which case, there is still definitely an argument to be made for trying him in the rotation again.  Kinda wish we had been more aggressive with, say, Hildenberger already, and kept Duffey stretched out in relief better, and it might be an easier transition.  At this point, I am pretty sure they're not going to bother making the change before the end of the season, which is disappointing because it could have helped inform our offseason planning a bit better, in regards to FA, Trevor May, etc.

[Vanimal46]

I've found the solution to all of our problems.... 

Brian.Duensing. 

 

The former throw in for all hypothetical trades on this site is now enjoying a career year for the Cubs. 

 

35 appearances - 2.79 ERA - 3.25 FIP - 1.216 WHIP - 10.9 (!!) K/9 - 2.3 BB/9

 

Duensing for Stewart (this year's throw-in for all hypothetical trades on this site) 

WHO SAYS NO?!

[Otto von Ballpark]

0.69 average game-entering leverage index for Duensing, so he's still firmly in mop-up man territory.

[Vanimal46]

 

0.69 average game-entering leverage index for Duensing, so he's still firmly in mop-up man territory.

 

My post is certainly tongue-in-cheek... But that goes to show how weird baseball can be. Someone on the Cubs must have shown him something to generate way more strikeouts than he's ever done before.  

[snepp]

Neshek, Swarzak, and Duensing would look pretty good in the pen about now.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Neshek, Swarzak, and Duensing would look pretty good in the pen about now.

 

 

Hop in the car... We're heading back to 2010 to let everyone know those pitchers will be pretty good in 2017! 

http://www.solarfeeds.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Back-to-the-Future-Delorean-Time-Machine-slice.jpg

[snepp]

 

Hop in the car... We're heading back to 2010 to let everyone know those pitchers will be pretty good in 2017! 

http://www.solarfeeds.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Back-to-the-Future-Delorean-Time-Machine-slice.jpg

 

Oh, 2010, twas a magical year.

 

 

Speaking of, where's Ron Mahay these days?

[70charger]

 

Oh, 2010, twas a magical year.

 

 

Speaking of, where's Ron Mahay these days?

 

I'm currently in Mexico. Should I look around a bit?

[snepp]

 

I'm currently in Mexico. Should I look around a bit?

 

Absolutely. And take your MN-Twins pitcher checkbox with you...

 

1. Has pulse?

 

2. Pitching arm attached to torso?

 

3. If no to 2, still has other arm?

 

4. If no to all above, sign anyway.