Article: Kintzler Has Been Twins Bullpen's Unlikely Hero

[Nick Nelson]

His palms are sweaty. Knees weak, arms are heavy. There's vomit on his sweater already, mom's spaghetti. He's nervous, but on the surface he looks calm and ready.

 

The lyrics of Brandon Kintzler's entrance song, 'Lose Yourself' by Eminem, describe an overwhelmed emcee struggling to control his nerves as he takes the stage. Much like Em's character in 8 Mile, Kintzler has much to prove, and despite lacking the prototypical traits of a shutdown closer, he's definitely making the most out of his one shot.The path that led Kintzler to the ninth inning in Minnesota might be worthy of its own biopic; a former 40th-round draft pick who spent parts of multiple seasons playing independent ball (including a stint with the St. Paul Saints), washed out in Milwaukee due to injuries, and joined the Twins as a low-key minor-league signing.

 

The right-hander fell into closer duties last summer because the two top guys lined up for the job were unable to get it done. Glen Perkins pitched in only two games before succumbing to shoulder issues that would require surgery. Kevin Jepsen was a mess as his replacement. Kintzler, pitching as well as anyone in the bullpen, started seeing save chances in mid-June and handled them well enough to keep getting more.

 

One year later, he has not only earned a tight grip on the role with the Twins, but has in fact blossomed as one of the game's most effective closers.

 

Though he wasn't credited with a save for wrapping up Sunday's sweep-clinching 4-0 victory over Cleveland, Kintzler had pulled into a tie for the American League lead in saves with his 20th on Saturday. In a bullpen besieged by turmoil, and constantly in flux, he has been an incredibly steady presence at the back end.

 

His importance to the success of the Twins, back in first place, can hardly be overstated. The relief unit has let a number of games get away, but rarely has it happened under Kintzler's watch. The 32-year-old has converted 20 of 23 save opportunities, posting a stellar 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 32 appearances – nearly all of them high-leverage. It wouldn't be shocking to see him named to the All-Star team when rosters are announced.

 

One might say he's doing it against all odds.

 

Of course, there is the aforementioned improbable career journey leading up to this point, but there is also the basic arithmetic of baseball. I'll admit that I've been skeptical of the veteran's ability to succeed as a closer, because his contact-heavy recipe often proves hazardous when the stakes are so high and the margin for error so thin.

 

He is a rare breed. His 16.2 percent strikeout rate ranks among MLB's bottom 20; no other closer is even in that vicinity. You just don't see ninth-inning men in today's game with a pitch-to-contact profile, and for the most part, even a moderate K deficiency tends to be a bad harbinger (see: Sam Dyson and Jeanmar Gomez).

 

The math tells us more balls in play means more opportunities for rallies to unfold. Few pitchers can run away from these basic realities forever, as Ervin Santana has learned this month while watching his BABIP rapidly normalize. Kintzler's 4.14 xFIP makes it tough for the analyst in me to get excited about his long-term outlook as closer. Yet, I can no longer find it in me to get apprehensive when he takes the mound.

 

He's been doing this for long enough – more than a calendar year now – that it's hard to view his excellence as any kind of fluke, regardless of what the peripherals might say. If his knees are weak or his palms are sweaty as he readies in the pen, then Kintzler shows no sign of it whatsoever.

 

His poise is tremendous. He doesn't get flustered, and executes pitches in almost every spot. His signature power sinker is almost always on. He rarely issues a walk (in fact, he hasn't handed out a single one in 11 June appearances) and this helps offset the infrequent whiffs, as does his propensity for limiting loud contact.

 

I still would not plan around Kintzler as my permanent closer going forward, but his performance since taking over the role has been nothing short of amazing. With big shoes to fill and with immense pressure bearing down on him every time he takes the mound to protect a narrow lead for a team that can ill afford to let any extra games slip, he is thriving.

 

Providing reliability on a pitching staff with a dire shortage of the same, Kintzler has been a godsend. His continually remarkable work is finally turning me from skeptic into stan.

 

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[Twinfan & Dad]

This topic has been argued previously here going back a couple months. I'm tired of defending this guy. He can flat out pitch. Location-Change of speed-Movement = SUCCESS.

[Dantes929]

"The relief unit has let a number of games get away, but rarely has it happened under Kintzler's watch."   Except they really haven't unless you are looking at games they were already likely to lose become games they had no chance in as your definition of games let get away.   I am sure there have been some but the only two I can think of are the consecutive ones against the Rays and the Astros.     The guy with the 10.6 SO/9  has actually been the least effective and is now gone (Pressley) which leads me to again conclude that not all 5.8 SO/9 guys are the same and you nailed it on the head when you said he executes his pitches.   I am every bit as comfortable with him as I was with Perkins and Nathan.    Yeah, they struck more guys out but they allowed base runners one way or the other also and always made you a little nervous.    Kintzler keeps the ball in the park and also gets double plays when rallies appear to unfold.  I can live with ground ball singles occasionally creating rallies.   At least he makes them earn it.

[Broker]

He gets guy out. That's what closers do. Who cares how?

[Blake]

It seems to me Kintzler can strike people out when he has to. I seem to recall a couple of situations where he needed the strikeout and got the job done.

 

Yes, strikeouts are gaudy but, in the end, the guys behind the pitcher need to make the plays, which they have been doing in regards to Mr Kintzler. 

 

If the guys behind the pitcher cannot catch the ball, that means you're putting the closer in a situation where he has to strike people out. That's a bad situation too.

[Han Joelo]

Great article. Epitomizes this team, really.

[Old Twins Cap]

Hey, 94 mph with sink, good location and command, unflappable.

 

And results.

 

I'm feeling good when they get to Kintzler.

[Bill Brown69]

 

This topic has been argued previously here going back a couple months. I'm tired of defending this guy. He can flat out pitch. Location-Change of speed-Movement = SUCCESS.

 

There was some guy named Maddux that had that same thing going. I think he turned out OK.

[adorduan]

 

Hey, 94 mph with sink, good location and command, unflappable.

 

And results.

 

I'm feeling good when they get to Kintzler.

Not that I really care, results are what matter, but don't the radar guns seem hot?  I think they had Santana throwing 96 a couple times today.

[HitInAPinch]

In the immortal words of Crash Davis:

 

"Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

 

Personally, I don't like putting in a "closer" when the team has a lead.  I think that's how we burned out Perkins with those extra faux Saves.  Let them get an extra day of rest.  If the team loses those games, well, you better look for help elsewhere. 

[puckstopper1]

Kintzler's success is awesome, but it does create a dilemma with the Twins.  He is a Free Agent at the end of year.  He is also arguably the most valuable trade chip that the Twins have.  So what do they do?  What could he bring back in a trade?  What would it cost the Twins to keep him?

[mikelink45]

Nice essay.  Sometimes we have to go back to the old scout format and look away from the metrics.  The question is - is he doing his job - answer - yes.  The second question is - do we have anyone better for the role?  Answer - No.  Go Kintzler.  You are doing the job and we are winning.  Your time will come, but for now, lets enjoy the ride. 

[Han Joelo]

 

Hey, 94 mph with sink, good location and command, unflappable.

 

And results.

 

I'm feeling good when they get to Kintzler.

I thought this might be haiku

But then I counted

Spot on comment nonetheless

[h2oface]

The only reason you would go forward with Kintzler as your closer, is that you don't think you can be a postseason team. To enter the postseason with Kintzler as your closer would be waving a white flag.

[Dantes929]

 

The only reason you would go forward with Kintzler as your closer, is that you don't think you can be a postseason team. To enter the postseason with Kintzler as your closer would be waving a white flag.

Because inducing weak contact, not giving up walks and executing pitches doesn't work in the playoffs?   I am guessing you would have said that about Jeff Reardon back in the day.   I thought it was more waving the white flag when we put Nathan in there to face the Yankees in the post season and he was the #2 reliever in the game.    If we get to the playoffs I am way more concerned with getting to Kintzler than I am with what happens once we get there.

[nicksaviking]

 

In the immortal words of Crash Davis:

 

"Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

 

Personally, I don't like putting in a "closer" when the team has a lead.  I think that's how we burned out Perkins with those extra faux Saves.  Let them get an extra day of rest.  If the team loses those games, well, you better look for help elsewhere. 

 

I always disagreed with Crash, I want my pitchers merciless and tyrannical. I'm cool with Mussolini on the mound.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Kintzler's success is awesome, but it does create a dilemma with the Twins. He is a Free Agent at the end of year. He is also arguably the most valuable trade chip that the Twins have. So what do they do? What could he bring back in a trade? What would it cost the Twins to keep him?

Interesting questions.

 

Also, he will just barely eclipse 6 years service time at the end of the season. I wonder if we could have left him in Rochester for another week or two last year and gotten another year of control? Obviously that's not usually a concern with minor league signings, but Kintzler wasn't quite a run of the mill minor league signing either -- he was a pretty effective pen piece for the Brewers who got injured, no one expected him to be a great closer but he profiled like a potentially solid setup man. Maybe he had an opt out date last year? Not sure...

[Mike Sixel]

IMO, Kintzler is a good closer. Much better as a closer than as a 7-8th inning guy. He does his job, not sure what more people want. Is he the best ever? no. Is he at least league average? Appears so. I'll take that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

On the free agent question, if he finishes this season strong at closer, he probably could match or possibly beat the Neshek/Gregerson deals from a couple years ago, 3/21 or better.

[jmlease1]

 

IMO, Kintzler is a good closer. Much better as a closer than as a 7-8th inning guy. He does his job, not sure what more people want. Is he the best ever? no. Is he at least league average? Appears so. I'll take that.

 

I think this is key. The role of "closer" has been overrated for so many years in terms of its importance to having a successful bullpen. Kintzler appears to be steady and consistent, which may in fact be the most important thing for that role, rather than overpowering stuff. With our defense showing a marked improvement from a year ago, his style of pitching plays very well when starting an inning and he's performing very well in the role.

 

Right now I'm happy with Kintzler, Duffey, and Rogers in the pen. I'm ok with Breslow & Boshers, but they really need Hildenberger to be ready and capable, Pressly to find his form and live up to his stuff, or Belisle to get it together & hope that his FIP is a better indicator of what he has left. One of those three has got to step up and be someone to be counted on in higher leverage situations and soon.

 

Hughes may lend some help, but it's looking more likely that Chargois is going the way of Burdi, which is a real shame. And it means that the Twins will really need someone to get it together or make a trade to support the bullpen if they want to stay in contention.

[jorgenswest]

IMO, Kintzler is a good closer. Much better as a closer than as a 7-8th inning guy. He does his job, not sure what more people want. Is he the best ever? no. Is he at least league average? Appears so. I'll take that.

Agree. Though I do believe if they find a better closer he is still useful coming in with men on base earlier in the game. With someone on first, he might be the best option to get a double play. Not sure he is my choice with runners on second and third and a strike out is needed. I need Andrew Miller for that case.

[Vanimal46]

 

On the free agent question, if he finishes this season strong at closer, he probably could match or possibly beat the Neshek/Gregerson deals from a couple years ago, 3/21 or better.

 

Boy, I like Kintzler, but not sure if I like him enough to give him $7 MM a season... 

[PDX Twin]

Improved defense has probably helped Kintzler a lot. If preseason worries about Polanco and Sanó had on the left side been justified, he might have fewer saves.

[jorgenswest]

Relievers go from effective to ineffective very quickly. One injury at 33 and a downtick in velocity might be all it takes. Any multiyear extension seems like a bad idea. If he will take it, overpay on a one year extension. If 3/21 is the market, would 1/10 be enough?

[Shaitan]

While I think a 3 year is a little long for his age, a 3 year deal will never bury a team even if they ends up eating it. And $7mil isn't that much money in MLB terms. I'd say he's worth as much as Castro, albeit at a different position. 

 

Sign whoever they can that's competent for the next 2-4 years, as long as the bankroll leaves room for Sano and Buxton extensions.

[nicksaviking]

Not to mention that even though people seem to like him for his groundball tendencies, his GB% is actually at a career low in 2017. Relievers can go belly up without notice and without much reason.

 

Still need them however.

[Dantes929]

 

Not to mention that even though people seem to like him for his groundball tendencies, his GB% is actually at a career low in 2017. Relievers can go belly up without notice and without much reason.

 

Still need them however.

Perkins, Jepsen and May come to mind.    I really like Kintzler but also am skeptical that I will really like him in 2020, or 2019, or maybe even 2018.     At least if he continues doing well we will reward him for the success he has had for us rather than the free agent who gets rewarded for success on a different team.

[yarnivek1972]

Who knows.  Maybe Hughes flourishes in his return to the pen and he closes through 2019.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I thought this might be haiku

But then I counted

Spot on comment nonetheless

I don't know how he does it,

but Kintzler does it.

He somehow gets the job done. 

Edited June 26, 2017 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[USAFChief]

Nothing makes me happier

Than a haiku jam

But you two still leave me sad.