Article: Twins 4, Cleveland 0: What a Difference a Week Makes

[Tom Froemming]

Last Sunday, it seemed obvious the Twins just couldn’t hang with Cleveland. After a four-game sweep in which the Twins relinquished the division lead, it appeared the team was destined that to be looking up at Cleveland for the rest of the season.

 

Well, that feeling lasted all of a week. Minnesota’s pitching shined, especially the bullpen, as the Twins swept Cleveland to take back the top spot in the AL Central.Win Expectancy & Top 5 Plays (via Fangraphs)

Download attachment: WinEx625.png

Download attachment: TopPlays625.png

Eddie Rosario had a monster game, going 3-for-4 with a homer and three runs scored. He made an excellent base running read on a Jason Castro double that allowed him to score and made a nice play in the field.

 

Eddie has about as many games that make you go “man, this guy can play” as he does that make you go “man, can this guy just go away?” What better poster boy could you find for a first-place team that has a -38 run differential?

 

It’s pretty crazy how big of a home/road split Rosario has this season, but I think it’s just a fun stat rather than something you can actually draw any concrete conclusions from. He was playing very poorly away from Target Field prior to this series. Here’s Rosario’s home vs. road OPS broken up by season entering today:

Download attachment: RosarioGraph.png

Here was Rosie’s home run, which was his 10th of the season:

The good Ervin Santana showed up today, he’s been a bit elusive of late. Santana pitched six shutout innings, surrendering up nine hits, but he did not issue a walk and struck out seven. In the second inning, Santana hit 96 mph twice, which were the two fastest pitches he’s thrown all year.

 

In this series, Twins starters combined to give up just one run over 15.2 innings. The bullpen also gave up just a run over 11.1 innings. Over the weekend, Cleveland left 30 men on base and was 1-for-23 with runners in scoring position.

 

Castro barreled up a couple balls for doubles off Josh Tomlin, the exit velocities were 109.6 and 102.1. There were a lot of impressive things about this sweep, but maybe more than anything is the fact the Twins pulled this off basically without Miguel Sano. Sano sat Friday and Saturday due to an illness. He was the DH today and was 0-for-3 with a walk.

 

The Twins won’t play Cleveland again until Aug. 15.

 

Postgame With Castro

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Pen625.png

Monday

Twins (Jose Berrios, 2.67 ERA) at Boston (Chris Sale, 2.85 ERA), 6:10 pm CT

 

Is this a pitching matchup, or what? Among American League pitchers with at least 50 innings, these two rank fourth and fifth in ERA and Sale is second in WHIP (0.90) with Berrios just behind in third (0.91). The Twins have always been a thorn in Sale’s side. He has a 4.37 ERA against Minnesota over 113.1 innings in his career. That’s his worst ERA against any team he’s faced more than twice. Berrios was very efficient in his last two starts, completing eight innings in both of them.

 

AL Central Standings

Twins 39-34

Cleveland 39-35 (-0.5)

Kansas City 37-37 (-2.5)

Chicago 33-41 (-7)

Detroit 32-42 (-7.5)

 

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[Dman]

I am shocked.  I gave the Twins no chance in this series.  When they won the first one I was like awesome they won't get swept.  When they won the second one i thought they got lucky. I expected them to implode today and they got the sweep.  Just stunning.  It is as if the baseball gods were against Cleveland as they had opportunities is these games but just never really converted.

 

 

Well it is game on now.

Edited June 25, 2017 by Dman

[Tuba]

Shouldn't Rogers 24 pitches on Friday be red? 

[MN_ExPat]

I'm #2! I'm #2!!

 

Ok, now that I've got that out of my system. Great series, Twins got the good bounces, pitches, and just did the little things that they needed to do to win. Pretty great to see.

[MN_ExPat]

Grrr, curse you tuba!!!

 

I'm #3!!!!

[Brandon]

Does this mean we get to acquire a starting pitcher now to help bolster the staff?

[Tom Froemming]

 

Shouldn't Rogers 24 pitches on Friday be red? 

Correct! Good catch, thank you. I have updated this on my spreadsheet so it's correct in tomorrow's recap.

[Doomtints]

 

I am shocked.  I gave the Twins no chance in this series.  When they won the first one I was like awesome they won't get swept.  When they won the second one i thought they got lucky. I expected them to implode today and they got the sweep.  Just stunning.  It is as if the baseball gods were against Cleveland as they had opportunities is these games but just never really converted.

 

 

Well it is game on now.

I felt like they were going to return the favor and sweep the series, but I didn't want to jinx it by saying anything.

[gunnarthor]

That was a fun series. I missed almost all of it. 

[mikelink45]

I just came back from Marquette, MI and this game entertained me for most of the ride from Ashland home.  What fun.  This is baseball at its most enjoyable.  I did expect an implosion many times, but Santana squirmed out of harm each inning  

[jokin]

 

 

I just came back from Marquette, MI and this game entertained me for most of the ride from Ashland home.  What fun.  This is baseball at its most enjoyable.  I did expect an implosion many times, but Santana squirmed out of harm each inning  

 

That was a fun series. I missed almost all of it. 

 

Just finished watching today's game. I guarantee that today would have been a blowout for the Indians a year ago- a guy who's struggled all year took the game over and a patchwork pen bears down right when you least have the right to expect the good times to keep on rolling.***

 

Last night, Buxton stole a game from the Tribe, despite the homeplate umpire's attempt to hand it to Kluber.

 

Friday night, Mejia did his best Deduno-esque impression and then combined with the previously-struggling BP- threw the most unlikely, early-on-ugly shutout that one could imagine- with Mollie ultimately entrusting a non-assuming 22nd RD draft pick to debut and close out the game against the defending AL champs, just hours after being called up.

 

This series had all the elements of a team shaking off its shaky recent past, this weekend was why we watch.

 

*** Challenge ?s for intrepid statheads among us....

 

1) Can anyone recall the last time the Twins had 3 shutouts in 4 games?

2) Can anyone recall the last time the Twins swept the defending AL champs on the road?

Edited June 25, 2017 by jokin

[Brock Beauchamp]

We all realize the last seven games with Cleveland have been objectively hilarious, right?

[USAFChief]

We all realize the last seven games with Cleveland have been objectively hilarious, right?

Baseball.

 

Love it.

[jokin]

 

Baseball.

Love it.

 

The last 6 seasons the Twins exceeded my expectations- for levels of futility and ineptitude.

 

This year they're exceeding my expectations practically on a game-by-game basis- I penciled them in @ ST as 2 years away from being competitive and 1 year away from daily being fun to watch- gotta say... it's much more enjoyable to be wrong on this side of the expectations game.

 

1987- after 73 games- 41-32 Two game lead

2017- after 73 games- 39-34 Half-game lead

 

1987- ERA 4.79

2017- ERA 4.83

 

1987- wRC+ 100

2017- wRC+ 97

 

Of course, we all know there's no way the Twins are going anywhere this year. And my old Gardy-inspired fear and loathing of the AL East is kicking up something fierce this evening as Fenway looms. But then again, I had the same dread for this weekend in Cleveland. Baby steps... learning to adjust my expectations a bit higher...

 

 

Edited June 26, 2017 by jokin

[Penthang]

After the sweep last week by Cleveland I thought this team was finally going to spiral. After the Twins went there and swept them this weekend I'm in the cautiously optimistic camp thinking we need to look for one more starter. The bullpen is scarring me less with the additions they last week has brought and with Hughes and Perkins as not far off potential additions. With Santiago back the rotation is a little less scary. Gibson and Mejia days are still a crapshoot, but, if the twins are still in first this time next week and win the series with Boston I think they should go for it and find another starter without giving up an A prospect, someone who you'd feel comfortable with starting in game 3 of a playoff series. That also could be someone in a Lookouts uniform at the moment? Who knows?

[hybridbear]

Are the labels reversed on the Rosario graph? The paragraph says "He’s also playing out of his mind on the road this season." However, the chart shows his home OPS is way high this year & his road OPS is low...

[Tom Froemming]

 

Are the labels reversed on the Rosario graph? The paragraph says "He’s also playing out of his mind on the road this season." However, the chart shows his home OPS is way high this year & his road OPS is low...

Darn it, you're right. Trash that whole thing. Updating this now.

 

Sorry, my brain is absolutely fried from a busy weekend. Hosted my daughter's first B-Day party Saturday and then spent hours yesterday tearing my house, garage and wife's car apart trying to find lost keys that ended up being in her robe pocket.

[whydidnt]

This weekend is a great example of how important pitching is. It's hard to get excited at the plate when you are down 5-0 in the 2nd inning. You'd like to think that shouldn't matter, but these guys are human too. Great to see the team win and take 1st place over, but I remain skeptical about the season long outlook. I still don't think they have the arms to really compete. Hope I'm wrong though. 

 

[Vanimal46]

For those that jumped off the bandwagon last Sunday, your seats were saved. Feel free to jump back on, and let's get PUMPED UP around here! On to the next one. 

[Craig Arko]

 

For those that jumped off the bandwagon last Sunday, your seats were saved. Feel free to jump back on, and let's get PUMPED UP around here! On to the next one. 

Would like to see this road trip wind up 7-4 or better.

[USAFChief]

Darn it, you're right. Trash that whole thing. Updating this now.

 

Sorry, my brain is absolutely fried from a busy weekend. Hosted my daughter's first B-Day party Saturday and then spent hours yesterday tearing my house, garage and wife's car apart trying to find lost keys that ended up being in her robe pocket.

Somehow, you were at least partially to blame, amiright?

[Danchat]

 

We all realize the last seven games with Cleveland have been objectively hilarious, right?

It's been completely bonkers. The Twins have been nearly invincible on the road (2nd best record in the league behind Houston) yet they have the worst record at home (yes, even worse than the Phillies and the Giants!). 

 

If we can sneak in as the 4th seed and win all our road games (while losing all home games), the World Series will be ours... if the NL wins the All-Star Game, that is.