Is Gibson back?

[Brandon Warne]

I'm not sure why the words "dominant ace" were used, but there's really nothing physically that separates him from Rick Porcello. 

 

Before people jump down my throat, here's what I mean: 

 

Porcello has a career ERA of 4.25, 49.3 percent GB rate and 6.2 K/9 with 2.0 BB/9. I really don't see any reason he can't come close to those numbers.

 

He's big, athletic, throws plenty hard and has good, but not great stuff.

[sftwinsfan]

Gibson has been a huge disappointment, 1st round pick, was once a top 50 prospect per MLB and Baseball America.  I don't think he's going to succeed anymore in a Twins uniform.  I think he does have the stuff to be a possible #3 starter.  He just seems to lack command and confidence in his pitches or what he's doing out on the mound.  He would probably benefit from a change of scenery.  I could see him possibly succeeding with a different team if he clicks with the right pitching coach somewhere, he does have talent.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Gibson is still my choice for a non-tender at the end of the year, if not just a DFA.  Twins need better starting pitching and his spot should be open for looks at the up and coming pitchers(most whom are now at AA).  It would also be great to reallocate his $4 - $5 million to improve the rest of the pitching on this club.

With this pitching staff, I tender every arm I have available.

 

Yeah, you don't want Gibson in the rotation but as a sixth man/mop-up guy, he's not a terrible insurance policy when things inevitably go south at some point in a 162 game schedule.

[KirbyDome89]

How poorly does this guy need to pitch before we're OK with him leaving?

 

Have no fear, the Mr. Hyde version of Gibson will show up in short order.

[Squirrel]

Moderator note: if you don't like a thread, or can't understand why it exists, don't post in it. While I personally would never call Gibson an ace, not even close, that is my opinion and if someone wants to have the opposite opinion, so be it. There is no reason to attack the poster and characterize him as 'drinking the Kool-Aid' no matter how far-fetched you might think the opinion is. Discuss the topic, disagree with it all you want, but stop the subtle personal attacks.

[USAFChief]

 

With this pitching staff, I tender every arm I have available.

 

Yeah, you don't want Gibson in the rotation but as a sixth man/mop-up guy, he's not a terrible insurance policy when things inevitably go south at some point in a 162 game schedule.

Yeah, it's going to be pretty tough to add enough pitching in one offseason that they could let GIbson go.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah, it's going to be pretty tough to add enough pitching in one offseason that they could let GIbson go.

I disagree. Gibson is a warm body, IMO.

Someone who can occupy the 5 spot when he's going okay, but gets crushed when he's not.

Those guys can be found in the off-season for much less than Gibson will make in arbitration.

Now, if we can non tender him and bring him back for a million or two, then that's another story.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I disagree. Gibson is a warm body, IMO.

Someone who can occupy the 5 spot when he's going okay, but gets crushed when he's not.

Those guys can be found in the off-season for much less than Gibson will make in arbitration.

Now, if we can non tender him and bring him back for a million or two, then that's another story.

Gibson will probably make about $4-5m in arb. I'm not sure what you expect to get for that money on the free agent market but it's not likely to be much/any better than Kyle Gibson unless the guy has major injury concerns.

[JustinCB]

After seeing Saturday's game, I'm as convinced as ever that Kyle Gibson has the stuff to be a dominant ace in the major leagues. What's missing is Jack Morris's attitude. Sometimes he'll pitch inside, but sometimes he gets passive, too nice. Sometimes he'll throw his change up for strike one, but not enough. You see that beautiful downward plane, that's got to produce tons of ground outs, but he doesn't throw enough strikes to make batters swing.

 

On the other hand, we all wish our pitchers got calls on strike three that were four to six inches outside the zone, as Kluber was getting. What an embarrassing day for that umpire. Does the league make them review their games? I hope so. He should spend the rest of the day with a red face.

 

Meanwhile, Gibson does appear to be rallying from his early-season slump. Why he should need to re-learn the art of pitching at this point in his career, I have no idea. No pitcher can succeed on stuff alone. You have to play the game.

Did we watch the same game? He walked like 14 guys and didn't even make it out of the 5th.

[DaveW]

Gibson is certainly pitching for his job moving fwd imo.

 

If he settles back into a mediocre 5th starter, as much as I hate to say it; you have to offer him arb.

 

The key with him moving fwd though is the leash has to be short with him IMO.

 

Thankfully we didn't sign him to a Blackburn type deal, this way even if he bombs next year again they cut him and only "lose" 4-5 million.

 

They definitely need one more guy who can be a very good three or a serviceable 2.

[USAFChief]

 

I disagree. Gibson is a warm body, IMO.
Someone who can occupy the 5 spot when he's going okay, but gets crushed when he's not.
Those guys can be found in the off-season for much less than Gibson will make in arbitration.
Now, if we can non tender him and bring him back for a million or two, then that's another story.

Have you seen the state of pitching in Minneapolis?  

 

Major League Baseball in general?

 

Starting pitching is hard to find.  Really hard.  They'll add some this winter (at least I hope so), but finding enough of it to let Gibson go is unrealistic, IMO.

[jorgenswest]

If they aren't going to start Duffey, Gibson is among the best 5 major league ready starters.

 

Go with him this year until he isn't. His last 2 starts against a good team have been OK. He needs to earn more trust before his manager is comfortable his third time through. Inderstandlw with back to back starts against the same team.

[Doomtints]

Is Gibson back? I don't think so. The Twin are using him VERY carefully. He is surviving right now due to smart management. When he lasts more than 5 innings and gets out of some jams, then we can talk.

[DocBauer]

I never felt Gibson would be an ACE. Did I hope he would be? Sure! He was a top prospect at one time. After his surgery and rehab he looked really, really good. Despite his initial debut, Gibson showed quite well at times his first couple of years.

 

Other writers and broadcasters have commented about size, downward plane, pure solid stuff, etc. Most games, most innings, I've never felt his control was poor. But when it goes bad for him, things unravel. He appears, to me, to never quite trust his stuff, his defense, or both. He just seems to nibble and get cute and try to fool everyone or hit the black. When he attacks he is a pretty solid pitcher.

 

Witness his recent game, (Seattle?), where he stunk, Molitor visited him on the mound, and while I believe he allowed another run, he suddenly looked much different and far more aggressive.

[Brandon Warne]

For what it's worth, if the Twins ever have enough healthy good arms they can do so, I wouldn't mind seeing what he can do out of the bullpen. 

 

They aren't close to having that luxury, however.

[twins_89]

In his last two starts Gibson has managed to only give up 3 runs, but looking at the rest of his stats shows he was not very good.

 

Last 2 starts:

10.2 IN, 3 ER, 12 H, 7 BB, 5 SO, 3 HR

 

Take out the relatively low number of runs allowed and that is a pretty awful couple of games. My guess is if he had similar H/BB/SO/HR numbers over a 10 game stretch he'd have an ERA over 6.

[MangLitch]

 

In his last two starts Gibson has managed to only give up 3 runs, but looking at the rest of his stats shows he was not very good.

 

Last 2 starts:

10.2 IN, 3 ER, 12 H, 7 BB, 5 SO, 3 HR

 

Take out the relatively low number of runs allowed and that is a pretty awful couple of games. My guess is if he had similar H/BB/SO/HR numbers over a 10 game stretch he'd have an ERA over 6.

 

Agreed. I think he is holding the tiger by the tail at this moment. 

 

I did notice one thing though, and maybe this isnt a change from the rest of the year. He seems to be utilizing a higher velocity fastball with less sink. I saw a couple 94 and 95's come up on the TV and this could be something that gets him back on track IMO.

 

I hated it when the Twins tried to turn him into a 89-92 mph sinker baller. I think his arsenal does not play well with that type of fastball. I could understand if he was a pinpoint precision guy that added movement and could paint with it, but he isnt. To put a 89-92 mph sinker with a slider and change-up seems to really lower the effectiveness of the offspeed. Before you roast me, let me try to explain my scatterbrain logic.

 

Sliders and change-ups are most effective with the hitter has to be aware that a fastball can get by him. This causes him to make faster decisions and thus allows the slider and change-up to be more effective when he incorrectly guesses. At 94-95, Gibson's offspeed is far more effective since he isnt a big curveball slinger. 

 

When they changed him to a 89-92 mph sinker baller, to me it took away that quick decision aspect and allowed the hitter to be too comfortable with not worrying about the fastball getting past him. I think if Gibson can utilize a 94mph 4 seam, a 90 mph sinker and his offspeed, he really could be a legit 3-5. 

 

His peripherals are still bad, but it seemed to me in his last start that he was utilizing more velocity and then mixing in the others and for the first time this year it seemed like the hitters were a bit uncomfortable. Efficiency needs to get better but I am starting to like his mix a lot better.

 

Maybe I am way off.... Luckily, all you guys are really good at catching misinformation. 

[Brandon Warne]

To answer the original question in the title of the thread:

 

Yes, the Twins recalled him a few weeks ago.

 

  

[Otto von Ballpark]

In his last two starts Gibson has managed to only give up 3 runs, but looking at the rest of his stats shows he was not very good.

 

Last 2 starts:

10.2 IN, 3 ER, 12 H, 7 BB, 5 SO, 3 HR

 

Take out the relatively low number of runs allowed and that is a pretty awful couple of games. My guess is if he had similar H/BB/SO/HR numbers over a 10 game stretch he'd have an ERA over 6.

That's FIP, my friend! Not that 2 starts is a great sample, but 3.38 ERA over those 2 starts, versus a 7.82 FIP.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=10123&position=P&type=&gds=2017-06-18&gde=2017-06-24&season=

[Twodogs]

I would say definitely not an Ace, hopefully he can work his way up to an adequate number 5 starter.  If he can go 10 - 10 every year with about 28 to 30 starts around a 4.50 era he'd be about as good as he could be

[bighat]

 

[Gibson] only still has a job at the MLB level because the alternatives are worse. He is not good and other than the first half of 2015, never has been.

 

'Zackly.  He's never been good, only borderline passable.  He's worse now than he's been in the past.  The Twins have nobody else.  He is a poor MLB pitcher. 

 

Sadly, in my mind he's surpassed Santiago.

[Doomtints]

 

I would say definitely not an Ace, hopefully he can work his way up to an adequate number 5 starter.  If he can go 10 - 10 every year with about 28 to 30 starts around a 4.50 era he'd be about as good as he could be

 

Those stats don't match. A guy with a .500 record would be a #3 starter. A guy with a 4.50 ERA would be a #4 or #3 starter. A guy with 28-30 starts would be a #3 starter or better.

 

How about if we just say we hope for the best for Gibson and leave it at that?

 

If you just want him to be a #5, he can get 6-7 wins, pitch around half a season, and have an ERA near or above 5. Not very exciting. He is pretty much already there.

[jimbo92107]

 

Did we watch the same game? He walked like 14 guys and didn't even make it out of the 5th.

The answer is glue. Somehow the Twins have to glue Jack Morris's head on Gibson's shoulders. The only alternative would be for Gibson to adopt something like Morris's attitude on the mound. But the simpler answer is glue.

[gil4]

 

You left out Belisle.

 

Some pitchers are accorded the privilege of having a "personal catcher". Gibby's was stationed in left field.

In left field or out beyond it?

[laloesch]

 

With this pitching staff, I tender every arm I have available.

 

Yeah, you don't want Gibson in the rotation but as a sixth man/mop-up guy, he's not a terrible insurance policy when things inevitably go south at some point in a 162 game schedule.

 

Agreed.  That said I would not offer him an extension come 2020 if he continues like this.  Hopefully by then they have better options.

[beckmt]

 

With this pitching staff, I tender every arm I have available.

 

Yeah, you don't want Gibson in the rotation but as a sixth man/mop-up guy, he's not a terrible insurance policy when things inevitably go south at some point in a 162 game schedule.

If this is the best the Twins can do, pass.  You have 3 young starters at Chattanooga(Romero, Gonsalves, and Jorge) who might be as good or better than Gibson.  I understand that Santiago is an FA after this year (but combine Gibson's and Santigo's money and you should be able to buy a #3/#4 starter).  Pitching is getting expensive, but I feel the wear and tear on the bullpen now will catch up in August/September like it has the last 6 years.  This pitching staff does not need a makeover they need a housecleaning and replacement. Bullpen pieces should be here in September and next year.  

Gibson is a nibbler who just chews up the bullpen with his 5 inning starts.  Santiago is a better pitcher, but the same type. If you figure Hughes due to his salary cannot be dumped, but will be a decent bullpen piece, starters become the bigger issue.  Do not like the upper end crop this fall(Cueto/Arrieta), so may have to buy a midrange starter this offseason and try for the ace after next year.  Berrios has given hope he could be a #2/#1 type for a few years, but still need more at the top of the rotation. 

[PDX Twin]

 

With this pitching staff, I tender every arm I have available.

 

Maybe that's the durability problem: They keep too many tender arms.

[Loosey]

I'll take the current Gibson as my #5 starter any day.  If that is considered Ace material whatever rotation he would be headlining would be in big, big trouble.

 

He has looked better lately, I will admit that.  He isn't a black hole in the rotation anymore and gives the team a chance to win.  So hey, what the heck, throw him out there every fifth day and hope you can win 50% of those starts.

[beckmt]

 

I'll take the current Gibson as my #5 starter any day.  If that is considered Ace material whatever rotation he would be headlining would be in big, big trouble.

 

He has looked better lately, I will admit that.  He isn't a black hole in the rotation anymore and gives the team a chance to win.  So hey, what the heck, throw him out there every fifth day and hope you can win 50% of those starts.

Twins do not have any aces, so the place to make up ground is at the tailend of the rotation.  Would be nice to have a #3/#4 type there to face the oppositions #5, with a decent chance to win 60 - 65% of these games. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

If this is the best the Twins can do, pass. You have 3 young starters at Chattanooga(Romero, Gonsalves, and Jorge) who might be as good or better than Gibson. I understand that Santiago is an FA after this year (but combine Gibson's and Santigo's money and you should be able to buy a #3/#4 starter). Pitching is getting expensive, but I feel the wear and tear on the bullpen now will catch up in August/September like it has the last 6 years. This pitching staff does not need a makeover they need a housecleaning and replacement. Bullpen pieces should be here in September and next year.

Gibson is a nibbler who just chews up the bullpen with his 5 inning starts. Santiago is a better pitcher, but the same type. If you figure Hughes due to his salary cannot be dumped, but will be a decent bullpen piece, starters become the bigger issue. Do not like the upper end crop this fall(Cueto/Arrieta), so may have to buy a midrange starter this offseason and try for the ace after next year. Berrios has given hope he could be a #2/#1 type for a few years, but still need more at the top of the rotation.

Maybe you missed the part where I said I don't want Gibson in the rotation but as a sixth man insurance policy.

 

All those young players are great but a team needs about eight starters to open a season. The Twins have about half that number.