Article: Twins 9, White Sox 7: Vargas Hits One To Venus

[Tom Froemming]

Ervin Santana had another bad start, but the Twins scored more runs Tuesday evening than they did in their entire four-game series against Cleveland thanks in large part to Kennys Vargas and Miguel Sano.Twins 9, White Sox 7

Box Score

 

Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs)

Download attachment: WE620.png

The big highlight from this one was an absolute moonshot from Kennys Vargas. He hit a ball into territory at Target Field seen only by Jim Thome. The Twins are calling it the third-longest homer in stadium history. Statcast is calling it the third-longest home run of 2017 (behind only Aaron Judge 495 and Keon Broxton 489). I’m simply calling it a thing of beauty. Check this out:

Download attachment: VargasHR.png

Santana was inefficient, throwing 106 pitches over just five innings, as well as ineffective, giving up six runs on 10 hits. It was Santana’s 15th start of the season. He’s given up one earned run or fewer in 10 of them, and at least five runs in the other five starts. His ERA for June is now 7.04.

 

With Santana struggling, the game was in the hands of the bullpen. Gulp. With the Twins up 8-6, Alan Busenitz (say it with me, Booze-nitz) was called upon as the first man out of the pen. He promptly gave up a run and loaded the bases.

 

Paul Molitor turned to Matt Belisle to put out the fire. I guess sometimes you fight fire with fire? The move actually paid off, as Belisle got the third out and even came back out to pitch a scoreless seventh inning. Taylor Rogers followed suit with a scoreless eighth. The bats added an insurance run in the ninth and Brandon Kintzler coasted to his 18th save.

 

In the Cleveland series, Sano was 2-for-15, both hits being singles, with a walk and five strikeouts. Entering Tuesday night’s game, he was hitting .351/.456/.737 in wins and .221/.307/.381 in losses. As Sano goes, so go the Twins.

 

He crushed a homer in the first inning, as Derek Holland didn’t quite get the pitch as far in as he had wanted.

 

Aaron Gleeman shared this interesting Sano tidbit on Twitter:

 

Byron Buxton was 2-for-3 with a walk and another four-star catch.

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Pen620.png

Wednesday

Twins (Jose Berrios, 2.74 ERA) vs. White Sox (David Holmberg, 2.63 ERA), 7:10 pm CT

 

Holmberg, a lefty, has made just four starts to go with another eight appearances out of the bullpen this season. As you’d expect, he’s been much better out of the pen (0.87 ERA) than as a starter (3.71 ERA). Lefties are just 2-for-20 off Holmberg this season. Since Berrios was called up May 13, only 11 starting pitchers have a lower WHIP than his mark of 0.96. He’s been especially tough at home, as opponents have just a .174/.266/.203 line off Berrios at Target Field.

 

AL Central Standings

Cleveland 37-32

Twins 35-33 (-1.5)

Kansas City 34-36 (-3.5)

Detroit 32-37 (-5)

Chicago 31-38 (-6)

 

Make sure to also check out today’s Minor League Report.

 

Click here to view the article

[HitInAPinch]

Thanks again for the writeup.  Damn work schedule anyhow.....

 

"That'll help"   LOL!

 

Strib did an article on Vargas working on his right-handed swing.  With the majority of MLB pitchers being righties,

 

[137 left-handed pitchers and 354 right-handed pitchers currently on MLB rosters or approximately 39% lefties.]

 

...it's no shocker that a switch-hitter would have problems with the lack of reps.

 

Nice call by Vargas.  Nice Swing!

[sloopjont]

Hi Hitinapinch--Just a friendly correction to your math above.   Instead of 39% lefties, it should be 28% of the pitchers currently in MLB are lefties.   Thanks!

[h2oface]

Since May 7th, Santana's starts were horrible, great, bad, great, very good, horrible, great, very bad, very bad. ERA for June is over 7. That the season's ERA is under 3 is a testament to just how great he started. He seemed to get all Gibson's runs this game.

[h2oface]

AL Central Standings
Cleveland 37-32
Twins 35-33 (-1.5)
Kansas City 34-36 (-3.5)
Detroit 32-37 (-5)
Chicago 31-38 (-6)

 

Here comes KC!!!

[Tom Froemming]

 

Here comes KC!!!

Yep, may need to give them a mulligan for April. Here are the standings since May 1:

KC 27-20
CLE 23-22
MIN 23-22
DET 20-26
CWS 18-28

[drjim]

Molitor should be fired for using Belisle in that situation.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

 

AL Central Standings
Cleveland 37-32
Twins 35-33 (-1.5)
Kansas City 34-36 (-3.5)
Detroit 32-37 (-5)
Chicago 31-38 (-6)

 

Here comes KC!!!

I'm hoping that Chicago drops to 31-40!

 

"Berrios, Santana, and bottle of Mylanta." Lavelle

 

Also Santana needs to be the stopper on Sunday in Cleveland.

[yarnivek1972]

Good to see Vargas have success from the starboard side. Switch hitters with power are an extremely rare commodity.

[Dantes929]

 

AL Central Standings
Cleveland 37-32
Twins 35-33 (-1.5)
Kansas City 34-36 (-3.5)
Detroit 32-37 (-5)
Chicago 31-38 (-6)

 

Here comes KC!!!

KC's record when not facing the Twins 33-29

[gil4]

 

"Berrios, Santana, and bottle of Mylanta." Lavelle

It's not quite "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain."

 

If Santana keeps this up, the rotation might just be Berrios and Mylanta.

[GCTF]

Bullpen doesn't blow game. How refreshing.

[Dantes929]

 

Molitor should be fired for using Belisle in that situation.

I respect that quote since it was made despite the success of the move.   I also  respect any comment saying  "Even though it didn't work out, Molitor made the right move".    Ok, that has never happened  (I mean the part about anyone saying that, not that Molitor has never made any good moves.)

 

However, nice job bullpen.     1 run given up on a 98 mph heater on the corner to Abeu over 4 innings in a 9-7 win.    Yes, Sano doing well is extremely important to our offense but the pythagorean  formula says we should be 30-38.    My view is that the bullpen has been absolutely horrible in games where we have been behind when they enter the game and likely to lose anyway and have been quite good at keeping leads.   It explains a winning record despite a 42 run deficit.   Molitor might deserve a little credit for that.

[yarnivek1972]

Bullpen doesn't blow game. How refreshing.

And Molitor didn't have to use Duffey. I wonder how much of that is Molitor fearing he's already overusing him and how much is that he hasn't done well his last couple times out.

[yarnivek1972]

I respect that quote since it was made despite the success of the move. I also respect any comment saying "Even though it didn't work out, Molitor made the right move". Ok, that has never happened (I mean the part about anyone saying that, not that Molitor has never made any good moves.)

 

However, nice job bullpen. 1 run given up on a 98 mph heater on the corner to Abeu over 4 innings in a 9-7 win. Yes, Sano doing well is extremely important to our offense but the pythagorean formula says we should be 30-38. My view is that the bullpen has been absolutely horrible in games where we have been behind when they enter the game and likely to lose anyway and have been quite good at keeping leads. It explains a winning record despite a 42 run deficit. Molitor might deserve a little credit for that.

What it suggests though is that your "good" bullpen guys are good but your "bad" ones are horrid. Problematically, you can't rely on 3 relievers to pitch in all the winnable games because you will burn them out.

[drjim]

 

And Molitor didn't have to use Duffey. I wonder how much of that is Molitor fearing he's already overusing him and how much is that he hasn't done well his last couple times out.

 

I think it's a little bit of both, but much more the former.

[drjim]

 

I respect that quote since it was made despite the success of the move.   I also  respect any comment saying  "Even though it didn't work out, Molitor made the right move".    Ok, that has never happened  (I mean the part about anyone saying that, not that Molitor has never made any good moves.)

 

However, nice job bullpen.     1 run given up on a 98 mph heater on the corner to Abeu over 4 innings in a 9-7 win.    Yes, Sano doing well is extremely important to our offense but the pythagorean  formula says we should be 30-38.    My view is that the bullpen has been absolutely horrible in games where we have been behind when they enter the game and likely to lose anyway and have been quite good at keeping leads.   It explains a winning record despite a 42 run deficit.   Molitor might deserve a little credit for that.

 

Contra many on the board, I generally think Molitor does a really good job managing the bullpen he has.

 

He did something last night that worked, that he as crushed for previously when it didn't work. He just has so few options to work with.

[kdrupp09]

Wow is all I can say, Vargas' homer was mammoth!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My view is that the bullpen has been absolutely horrible in games where we have been behind when they enter the game and likely to lose anyway and have been quite good at keeping leads.   It explains a winning record despite a 42 run deficit.   Molitor might deserve a little credit for that.

There is probably something to this.  Twins pen ranks 7th in MLB in save/hold percentage, and not for lack of chances -- we also rank 7th in total saves + holds.  A league-average save/hold percentage across our opportunities would have yielded an additional 3-4 blown saves thus far.

[Dantes929]

 

What it suggests though is that your "good" bullpen guys are good but your "bad" ones are horrid. Problematically, you can't rely on 3 relievers to pitch in all the winnable games because you will burn them out.

I agree completely but I ask if Molitor deserves any credit for managing wins with just 3 good relievers.   Also, the quote above about how refreshing it is for the bullpen to not blow a game is a common viewpoint but is misleading to me.   Aside from the two games in a row against the Astros, the Twins pen really hasn't blown games.    Putting in horrid ones has simply decreased already low odds of coming back in games .   If we are down 6-1 in the 6th, how much does it matter that we lose 15-3?  Yes, it would be absolutely awesome for a couple more guys to step up for the reasons you listed and also to allow for us to come back in games every once in a while.  No argument there whatsoever.

[Dantes929]

 

There is probably something to this.  Twins pen ranks 7th in MLB in save/hold percentage, and not for lack of chances -- we also rank 7th in total saves + holds.  A league-average save/hold percentage across our opportunities would have yielded an additional 3-4 blown saves thus far.

Thanks for that research.    The one play I wish the Twins had back this entire season was 5-3 lead against the Astros with one out and no one on in the bottom of the 9th and Buxton played conservative on a line drive that fell in front of him but looked catchable.    He catches that and the Twins probably win, don't go extra innings and probably hold the large lead the next day with a rested bullpen and thus would still be in 1st place.     Not really mad at Buxton since outfield defense has been a huge asset and difference maker this season but to point out one play could have made your stats look even better and to illustrate how fragile the balancing act is without depth in the bullpen.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Contra many on the board, I generally think Molitor does a really good job managing the bullpen he has.

 

He did something last night that worked, that he as crushed for previously when it didn't work. He just has so few options to work with.

Yes, the issues with the bullpen are much more about construction than management. Also, Twins starters not named Ervin are barely averaging five innings per start. They've had to ask a lot of an already shallow pen.

[Dantes929]

"Byron Buxton was 2-for-3 with a walk and another four-star catch".    Went looking for the replay on MLB but could not find it.   What happened?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks for that research.    The one play I wish the Twins had back this entire season was 5-3 lead against the Astros with one out and no one on in the bottom of the 9th and Buxton played conservative on a line drive that fell in front of him but looked catchable.    He catches that and the Twins probably win, don't go extra innings and probably hold the large lead the next day with a rested bullpen and thus would still be in 1st place.     Not really mad at Buxton since outfield defense has been a huge asset and difference maker this season but to point out one play could have made your stats look even better and to illustrate how fragile the balancing act is without depth in the bullpen.

FWIW, that game was against the Rays.  The next day was the blown lead against the Astros.

[Tom Froemming]

 

"Byron Buxton was 2-for-3 with a walk and another four-star catch".    Went looking for the replay on MLB but could not find it.   What happened?

It was your typical Buxton four-star catch in that it didn't look like a highlight reel grab but all the data suggests the average major leaguer doesn't make the catch more often than not.

 

It was a line drive he had to charge in on, made the grab on his feet. That was the first out of the second, which was big because the Sox led off the inning with a double. Baseball Savant lists the hit probability on that one at 74 percent.