Article: How Long Is Eddie Rosario's Leash?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is where looking at numbers over thinking of the actual stuff the reliever brings to the table is a mistake. Reed has a legit two pitch mix that will play in the majors, that's where the excitement came from. Bard might be there but has even more work. Hildenberger has some deception but unlikely that works. The rest are org guys.

I'm not saying ignore numbers but I think of it more as red flags at that point rather than a straight comparison that is going to mean much. Reeds numbers as a college reliever in Low A are beyond meaningless.

 

I'm not really "looking at numbers over stuff"-- I guess that's a tangent of a tangent. : )  I was just skeptical that there was enough difference between Reed and guys like Bard or Melo to explain the last few months of org bullpen inactivity (even just AA to AAA movement, since these level of arms are unlikely to successfully skip the AAA step).

 

I'll gladly give Reed a chance, and I hope you are right about him replacing Breslow very soon, even if it seems awfully late.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Rosario's mental errors are frustrating, but this article would have made more sense at the end of April.

As has been pointed out,he has posted an OPS for April/May/June of .660/.810/.880. He has the highest BA, SLG and OPS in our outfield. He is striking out at a career low % and walking at a career high %. I'd like to see him do everything better, but he is trending in the right direction in all his offensive stats.

 

I really hope this May/June Rosario is the one who takes the field every night.

Minus the defensive miscues.

 

[iastfan112]

 

Rosario's mental errors are frustrating, but this article would have made more sense at the end of April.

As has been pointed out,he has posted an OPS for April/May/June of .660/.810/.880. He has the highest BA, SLG and OPS in our outfield. He is striking out at a career low % and walking at a career high %. I'd like to see him do everything better, but he is trending in the right direction in all his offensive stats.

 

I really hope this May/June Rosario is the one who takes the field every night.

Minus the defensive miscues.

And he's swinging at less stuff outside the zone, that metric has decreased every year. Still on the ugly side but steady improvement. You let him play out this season at the very least, way to early to think about giving up on him.

[drjim]

I'm not really "looking at numbers over stuff"-- I guess that's a tangent of a tangent. : ) I was just skeptical that there was enough difference between Reed and guys like Bard or Melo to explain the last few months of org bullpen inactivity (even just AA to AAA movement, since these level of arms are unlikely to successfully skip the AAA step).

 

I'll gladly give Reed a chance, and I hope you are right about him replacing Breslow very soon, even if it seems awfully late.

Reed really couldn't have moved much quicker.

 

I think there is clearly something more they need to see from Melo that they didn't fast track him.

 

I don't have a good handle on Bard, he really emerged this year after several years of injury and ineffectiveness. If he's legit I would push him fast since he's an obvious injury risk.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Reed really couldn't have moved much quicker.

 

I think there is clearly something more they need to see from Melo that they didn't fast track him.

I don't have a good handle on Bard, he really emerged this year after several years of injury and ineffectiveness. If he's legit I would push him fast since he's an obvious injury risk.

Not late on Reed, obviously -- late on doing anything with any minor league arms.

 

Obviously there must be something this front office *thinks* they don't see in this group of minor league relievers.  The question is, should we trust them?  And more importantly -- have they offered a compelling alternative?

Edited June 22, 2017 by spycake

[Darius]

He's hard to get a read on. He'll make a great play, or hit a big HR one inning, then turnaround and make a head-scratching base running error the next.

[DJSim22]

 

It was an all too familiar sight on Tuesday evening at Target Field: Eddie Rosario, in the name of being aggressive, making an unbelievably dumb play and costing his team.

On this occasion, against the White Sox, he fielded a ball in left field and chucked it toward home plate in a hopeless attempt to beat a runner scoring easily from second. The throw was off line and, as catcher Jason Castro ran over to catch it, Jose Abreu strode leisurely into second, credited with a 'double.'

Paul Molitor might have gained a gray hair or two, but definitely lost a little more of whatever patience remains for the young outfielder, who shows minimal interest in tempering his recklessly aggressive style.On the Gleeman & the Geek podcast a few weeks ago, Aaron cited a rather remarkable stat. Among all left fielders in the history of baseball who've made 1,000 plate appearances, Rosario's career on-base percentage (.296) ranks dead last.

He has had the worst strike zone control of any player in the majors since arriving, with his 0.15 BB/K ratio ranking 185th out of 185 qualified players over the past three seasons. He lets his aggressiveness get the best of him at the plate, just as it does in the field, canceling out raw ability that too rarely shines through. The habits we expected Rosario to outgrow linger on, at age 25 and coming up on his 300th MLB game.

He has been an altogether consistent hitter over the course of his up-and-down time in the bigs, with all the hot streaks and slumps adding up to roughly the same OPS every year (.742 career, .771 in 2017). That production would be perfectly fine from someone like Byron Buxton, who adds immense value on defense, but Rosario is a far cry. He plays a position with higher offensive expectations and he hasn't been playing it all that well.

While defensive metrics love Buxton, they don't look so kindly upon Rosario, who rates negatively by both UZR and DRS. The small sample caveat obviously applies, but I don't think anyone who's watched him in left regularly would disagree.

Now, this bears noting: Rosario is presently a year younger – and 200 plate appearances shy – of where Aaron Hicks was entering this season. Too many times we have seen a hopeless case suddenly flip on the light bulb, and with his electric ability Rosario would shine brighter than most if he could find the switch. He is a tremendous athlete. He hit three home runs in a game less than 10 days ago. His competitive fire would be refreshing and entertaining if it didn't so often burn him, and the team.

Is he starting to feel the heat? The microscope is magnifying with a higher power lens with Zack Granite making serious noise at Class-AAA Rochester. The Twins 2016 Minor League Player of the Year is batting .349/.402/.479 for the Red Wings, with a .478 average in the month of June. A scrappy and speedy center fielder known for his high baseball IQ, he is an enticing option, albeit one with a far lower ceiling than Rosario.

The big-picture play is to let things ride. Keep hoping it finally clicks for Rosario and let Granite continue to tear it up, maybe come up late in the year to get his feet wet as a fifth outfielder. But Molitor's fading club needs a spark, and the manager is undoubtedly exasperated with watching his blunderous left fielder hurt an already overmatched pitching staff.

Swapping Rosario for Granite would certainly send a message. Are the Twins, whose deadline approach will be dictated by the next four weeks, ready to send it?

Click here to view the article

 

The first message should be sitting him after the throw or if he continues to make that play.  You can have some wake up calls without putting someone in AAA.  I'd like to see Molitor make these type of moves first before a AAA demotion. 

 

 

[drjim]

Not late on Reed, obviously -- late on doing anything with any minor league arms.

 

Obviously there must be something this front office *thinks* they don't see in this group of minor league relievers. The question is, should we trust them? And more importantly -- have they offered a compelling alternative?

I don't see a reason not to trust them initially.

 

I never liked the Belisle signing and they probably should have aimed higher than Breslow, though I was intrigued by his changes enough to approve the minor league signing.

 

While they were uninspiring in major league signings, I give them much more of a pass on how the depth had shaken out. So much of the current situation is based on what they inherited. It is so difficult to add impact depth from outside the org, unless they blew up the major league roster.

 

Levine and Falvey, fwiw, have both commented multiple times on how much of the second tier plan for relievers had been ravaged by injuries and required the scramble. This is pretty clearly true and does seem like they had something of a plan going in.

 

All that to say, while I am critical of the major league additions to the bullpen, I don't think that should necessarily mean they don't know how to evaluate their own internal options compared to scrap heap veterans they continue to add.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't see a reason not to trust them initially.

 

I never liked the Belisle signing and they probably should have aimed higher than Breslow, though I was intrigued by his changes enough to approve the minor league signing.

 

While they were uninspiring in major league signings, I give them much more of a pass on how the depth had shaken out. So much of the current situation is based on what they inherited. It is so difficult to add impact depth from outside the org, unless they blew up the major league roster.

 

Levine and Falvey, fwiw, have both commented multiple times on how much of the second tier plan for relievers had been ravaged by injuries and required the scramble. This is pretty clearly true and does seem like they had something of a plan going in.

 

All that to say, while I am critical of the major league additions to the bullpen, I don't think that should necessarily mean they don't know how to evaluate their own internal options compared to scrap heap veterans they continue to add.

The second tier was already a pretty injury prone group (Chargois, Burdi). Relying heavily on them and Belisle/Breslow/Haley, and failing to adapt to fairly predictable injuries/ineffectiveness, was a bad plan. So yeah, I am a little skeptical at this point when the same minds that cooked up that plan tell me it's not worth pushing basically any minor league arms. Obviously the book on this FO will be written about more than just this season's bullpen, but so far it is a demerit.

 

But I digress.

[drjim]

The second tier was already a pretty injury prone group (Chargois, Burdi). Relying heavily on them and Belisle/Breslow/Haley, and failing to adapt to fairly predictable injuries/ineffectiveness, was a bad plan. So yeah, I am a little skeptical at this point when the same minds that cooked up that plan tell me it's not worth pushing basically any minor league arms. Obviously the book on this FO will be written about more than just this season's bullpen, but so far it is a demerit.

 

But I digress.

Not sure I agree on this. How would they have added higher quality second and third level minor league depth in an offseason, without subtracting from the mlb roster.

[gocgo]

 

And a week ago we were 1.5 up.

 

Last 10 games:

Cleveland: 7-3

Kansas City: 8-2

Minnesota: 3-7

 

Pretty much the definition of fading. Doesn't mean they can't come back or stay near the top, but at the moment they're sliding backwards and it's for a very real reason (nearly AL-worst pitching).

We've won two in a row...are we surging?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not sure I agree on this. How would they have added higher quality second and third level minor league depth in an offseason, without subtracting from the mlb roster.

It only had to be in the offseason if we accept your premise that virtually none of the remaining AA-AAA arms are even worth a timely AAA promotion. I don't accept that premise, and don't trust it coming from this FO yet. These pitchers are obviously not perfect, but I don't think they should have been prejudged as irredeemable for 2017 given the alternatives.

 

Although even in the offseason, Blake Parker and Dominic Leone were available to us on waivers. If they really didn't like anyone behind Chargois or Burdi, this FO had an odd way of addressing that concern.

 

Anyway, I'll bow out here, I've sidetracked this thread long enough!

[Trevor0333]

 

I have been on the Rosario bandwagon.  The idea of Kepler, Buxton, Rosario outfield growing together is compelling.

 

But, there is something about Eddie's attitude that has started to grate on me.  He sulks, his facial expressions, his body language:  it's all about him, good or bad.

 

Even Sano, at least, is showing up as a team guy.

 

Now imagine we have a scrappy, high OBP, speed guy leading off, who is better defensively, raises havoc on the bases and is all about team and being the underdog.

 

Call me Granite curious, but at the rate he is going, I can see the Granite skill set fitting in better than Eddie over the long term.  Twins have power and defense, but they need OBP, speed and an ankle biting underdog, IMHO.

 

 

In interviews with other players it is often brought up that Rosario is one of the most popular players because they love the passion & energy he brings. I don't think its fair when people watching on TV make assumptions on attitude. Resting B Face is real thing

[70charger]

 

In interviews with other players it is often brought up that Rosario is one of the most popular players because they love the passion & energy he brings. I don't think its fair when people watching on TV make assumptions on attitude. Resting B Face is real thing

 

This is also an issue I have. 

 

http://cdn5.thr.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/scale_crop_768_433/2014/09/too_good_for_grumpy_cat.jpg

[Twodogs]

I think Eddie has done a good job at the plate, considering what we thought he would do, he has been clutch at times and not so clutch at other times, but offensively he's done well for a 7th or 8th spot in the lineup.

 

But.......

 

I imagine that the coaches have probably talked to him about hitting the cut off more than once??? I mean I see a bloop single last night, the Yankees baserunner is going for 3rd and maybe if he was in perfect position, such as moving towards 3rd when he gets the ball etc... Fine go for it, but the ball was hit slowly, Rosario is running towards 2nd to field the ball and then has to do a spinning 360 in order to get anything on the throw to 3rd which allows the guy who hit the bloop single to go all the way to 2nd. I mean at the point where you have to do a spinning 360, that should set something off in your mind that you should prob hit the cut off?? I'm sure the coaching staff just had to look at him when he walked into the dugout. Like what the F was that? Even Sano looked at him when he fielded the ball, like what are you doing??

[Doomtints]

 

I imagine that the coaches have probably talked to him about hitting the cut off more than once??? 

 

Sure. He was sent to the minors last year because of this.

 

Don't forget that someone named Carlos Gomez was ridiculed by Twins fans for his terrible choices when baserunning and on defense, particularly throwing to the infield. Gomez figured it out. Don't give up on these young guys for fringey reasons that no baseball stat even measures. If something matters, you can bet someone made a convoluted stat for it by now.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Doomtints

[Mr. Brooks]

Sure. He was sent to the minors last year because of this.

 

Don't forget that someone named Carlos Gomez was ridiculed by Twins fans for his terrible choices when baserunning and on defense, particularly throwing to the infield. Gomez figured it out. Don't give up on these young guys for fringey reasons that no baseball stat even measures. If something matters, you can bet someone made a convoluted stat for it by now.

I agree. I'm on record many times saying i think Rosario likely has a ceiling of a really good 4th outfielder.

But, i still run him out there everyday until a CLEAR better option is ready.

You just can't give up on these young guys who had at least some pedigree in the minors - Rosario, Buxton, Polanco.

Every prospect has a different learning curve, and sometimes guys outperform their milb profile (think Dozier).

[kab21]

 

Sure. He was sent to the minors last year because of this.

 

Don't forget that someone named Carlos Gomez was ridiculed by Twins fans for his terrible choices when baserunning and on defense, particularly throwing to the infield. Gomez figured it out. Don't give up on these young guys for fringey reasons that no baseball stat even measures. If something matters, you can bet someone made a convoluted stat for it by now.

I see more Jacque Jones in Rosario personally. And he was a perfectly fine LF'er through his arb years. And Brooks is completely right. You don't replace Rosario until a clearly better option comes along. Granite is not it (discussed 2 weeks ago). And neither is anyone else in the upper minors.

[Twodogs]

I agree. I'm on record many times saying i think Rosario likely has a ceiling of a really good 4th outfielder.

But, i still run him out there everyday until a CLEAR better option is ready.

You just can't give up on these young guys who had at least some pedigree in the minors - Rosario, Buxton, Polanco.

Every prospect has a different learning curve, and sometimes guys outperform their milb profile (think Dozier).

I personlly think Rosario could be better than a 4th OFer, he has made strides, but boneheadedness probably doesn't need a measurement, because if a player continues to do boneheaded things then they end up looking for another job. I mean Ryan Leaf spent a few years and kept doing boneheaded things and eventually they gave up on him.

 

I also believe Rosario is hitting better than Gomez did when Gomez was here.

[DocBauer]

Sure. He was sent to the minors last year because of this.

 

Don't forget that someone named Carlos Gomez was ridiculed by Twins fans for his terrible choices when baserunning and on defense, particularly throwing to the infield. Gomez figured it out. Don't give up on these young guys for fringey reasons that no baseball stat even measures. If something matters, you can bet someone made a convoluted stat for it by now.

Like this post a lot!

 

I know some losing, disappointing and frustrating seasons lead to impatience. But Rosario is very talented. He's only 25. He came in to this season with somethibg like 770-780 ML AB. Total!

 

There's a nice Blog about him and the improvement he's made offensively here at TD. I'd invite anyone who hasn't read it to do so.

 

Gomez is a great example. So is Hunter. Hicks, with the Yankees, is yet fully proven, but offers up yet another cautionary tale. You just don't give up on young, talented players with this much potential too early!

 

He may never be more than a very dangerous and exciting player who lacks the discipline and consistency to hit better than 6th or 7th. So What?

 

As to his defense, all the ability in the world! We've seen it. Coaching and experience can help smooth out wrinkles. Pure ability can't be taught.