Article: How Long Is Eddie Rosario's Leash?

[howieramone2]

 

I would count on Rooker (or a FA) replacing him before Palka and Granite.

I agree. I would give him the rest of the season, to see if he can mature into a professional hitter. If not, I would pursue a free agent with some pop. Palka and Granite are nothing more than depth on a contending team. 

[Mike Sixel]

If you sort the Fangraphs leaderboard for LF....by wRC+....Eddie is 14th, but closer to 19th than 13th.

 

That is out of 21 qualified LFers.....

 

I'm not sure what others are seeing, really, that makes us think his offense is good. I guess if you are median, and closer to bad than good, for your position, that, to me, is not good and not helping at all. And, is pretty much replacement level. Others disagree, but if you are closer to 19th than 13th, you are replacement level.

 

If you go from qualified to those with at least 200 ABs, you increase the pool to 26 batters. He drops to 17th, and is closer to 23rd than 15th.

 

At best, he's median on offense....but if you look at how close he is to going down in the rankings vs up.....he's not.

 

Again, I say keep playing him, and that they have no better option right now. I just think he's a 4th OF, especially when you add in the mental mistakes and other factors.

[yarnivek1972]

I would count on Rooker (or a FA) replacing him before Palka and Granite.

Wade is a more real possibility.

[Vanimal46]

 

This year, AL LF hit 266/334/429 with a 327 wOBA and a 103 wRC+

Rosario's season: 273/313/458 327 wOBA and 101 wRC+

 

He is pretty much exactly league average. Much less than what we want or need, but much better than replacement level on offense. It's his defense that's killing his value. According to Fangraphs, he's 5.2 runs below replacement on defense, putting him worse than nearly everyone in LF.

 

He's like the polar opposite of Buxton.

 

Rosario contributes .1 runs above replacement on offense but loses 5.2 runs on defense

Buxton loses 7.6 runs on offense, but gets  back 3.8 runs on baserunning and another 4.8 runs on defense. In the end, Buxton has a .5 WAR and Rosario has a .4 WAR.

 

Man, I didn't realize Rosario was that much of a liability out there in LF... He didn't provide positive value in the field last season either. Goes to show if you have one good year in the field, your reputation masks the real story. 

[yarnivek1972]

Of course there is no way to measure baserunners who hold up instead of testing his arm though.

[Taildragger8791]

 

If you sort the Fangraphs leaderboard for LF....by wRC+....Eddie is 14th, but closer to 19th than 13th.

 

That is out of 21 qualified LFers.....

 

I'm not sure what others are seeing, really, that makes us think his offense is good. I guess if you are median, and closer to bad than good, for your position, that, to me, is not good and not helping at all. And, is pretty much replacement level. Others disagree, but if you are closer to 19th than 13th, you are replacement level.

 

If you go from qualified to those with at least 200 ABs, you increase the pool to 26 batters. He drops to 17th, and is closer to 23rd than 15th.

 

At best, he's median on offense....but if you look at how close he is to going down in the rankings vs up.....he's not.

 

Again, I say keep playing him, and that they have no better option right now. I just think he's a 4th OF, especially when you add in the mental mistakes and other factors.

 

I wouldn't be itching to give up on a guy that's middle of the pack (at replacement level or slightly above) and trending up at barely 1000 career plate appearances. The mental gaffes are frustrating and could limit his playing time eventually, but the stick is still improving.

 

He's shown real progress in his batting peripherals this year, and even moreso in the last month. He's stroking .316/.379/.595/.974 since May 26th with a BAPIP of .339 and a 17/8 K/BB ratio, so this hasn't been outrageously luck-driven either. He could still wind up being an above average bat for left field.

[Steve Lein]

 

Other than September of last year, Buxton has a sub .600 OPS. What else but a complete implosion would one call that?

 

Fair enough, but he obviously hasn't hit the "complete implosion" point of the Twins, yet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Of course there is no way to measure baserunners who hold up instead of testing his arm though.

Actually, there is.  Not sure if it's terribly accurate without Statcast data, but It's part of defensive metrics like DRS:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/drs/

 

 

rARM – Outfield Arms Runs Saved evaluates an outfielder’s throwing arm based on how often runner advance on base hits and are thrown out trying to take extra bases.

 

Edited June 21, 2017 by spycake

[drjim]

Even 19th in the majors is not especially close to replacement level. There seems to be a lack of imagination on how much less production there could be out of the position.

 

Don't see it with Granite or Wade. 

[markos]

 

Of course there is no way to measure baserunners who hold up instead of testing his arm though.

Advanced defensive stats like UZR and DRS both explicitly attempt to quantify that. They look at the average rates for various scenarios - runners successfully going first-to-third, tagging up, scoring from second, etc - on hits to a particular position, and then compare to how a specific fielder fared. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I wouldn't be itching to give up on a guy that's middle of the pack (at replacement level or slightly above) and trending up at barely 1000 career plate appearances. The mental gaffes are frustrating and could limit his playing time eventually, but the stick is still improving.

 

He's shown real progress in his batting peripherals this year, and even moreso in the last month. He's stroking .316/.379/.595/.974 since May 26th with a BAPIP of .339 and a 17/8 K/BB ratio, so this hasn't been outrageously luck-driven either. He could still wind up being an above average bat for left field.

 

It seems a bit like hopefulness to look at 3 weeks of stats and say he's figured things out. As I said, lets see how the next 2 months go before making any decisions on him/others. And I'm certainly NOT saying to give up on him. No place. 

[Doomtints]

 

He is pretty much exactly league average. Much less than what we want or need, but much better than replacement level on offense. It's his defense that's killing his value. According to Fangraphs, he's 5.2 runs below replacement on defense, putting him worse than nearly everyone in LF.

 

What you said is correct. You can't look at a 0.1 bWAR and say "replacement level" without considering the following:

 

- How does he perform v. league average at his position?

- How would the real-life "replacement" player in the Twins system compare to him if he left?

 

Answers:

 

- He is a little worse than the average player at his position this year, but not outside the margin of error and the sample size is small.  Last year he was right at average and the year before a bit above average. With all available 3-year data, I would say he's an average player at his position.

- The "replacement players" that the Twins could use for Rosario are FAR WORSE than league average, and far worse than Rosario.

 

So is Rosario truly "replacement level" for the Twins?  No.  Is he "replacement level" for most teams?  No.

 

Personally, I think Rosario will be traded and Grossman will take over. But this isn't because Rosario is a lost cause or incompetent, it's because the Twins have other needs and Grossman is better. Rosario is good enough to trade and actually get something in return.

 

Also, yes, his drop off so far this year appears to be largely defensively related.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Doomtints

[Rosterman]

Rosario dis not the problem with the team, and seeing the options in the minors, we shouldn't be ready to deep-six him quite yet. Once Grossman is worked out, the Twins will need four outfielders and they do have that, right now. You can survive with the current trio and Granite (and perhaps Palka) for the next two seasons).

 

But if another team does show interest, you don't NOT talk. Depends on what you can get in trade. Maybe a pitching prospect like Alex Meyer? Maybe even two...Vance Worley and Trevor May! You never know! Or maybe a catcher from another organization...someone on par with prospect John Ryan Murphy!

 

Wait, we have a new administration!

[nicksaviking]

 

If you sort the Fangraphs leaderboard for LF....by wRC+....Eddie is 14th, but closer to 19th than 13th.

 

That is out of 21 qualified LFers.....

 

I meant to post here that I'm open to a Rosario replacement as soon as a clearly superior option presents itself, and to point out that Rosario falls to 17th if sorted by WAR on your list. But then I noticed a bit of a trend with those players; of those guys ahead of him, only Michael Conforto is younger.

 

With the rest, there are a lot of guys in their late 20's and some into their 30's on that list and almost all of them toiled for a few years and were late bloomers, coming into their own at or after Rosario's age. Aaron Hicks, Marcell Ozuna, Aaron Alther, Cameron Maybin, Khris Davis, Adam Duvall, Michael Brantley, Melky Cabrera, Eduardo Nunez, Hernan Perez and Alex Gordon.

 

It's like a who's-who of guys who were relatively well regarded prospects but took several years for it to click. Also, nearly every guy on that list is a negative defensively. There also isn't any real superstars in LF anymore.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I meant to post here that I'm open to a Rosario replacement as soon as a clearly superior option presents itself, and to point out that Rosario falls to 17th if sorted by WAR on your list. But then I noticed a bit of a trend with those players; of those guys ahead of him, only Michael Conforto is younger.

 

With the rest, there are a lot of guys in their late 20's and some into their 30's on that list and almost all of them toiled for a few years and were late bloomers, coming into their own at or after Rosario's age. Aaron Hicks, Marcell Ozuna, Aaron Alther, Cameron Maybin, Khris Davis, Adam Duvall, Michael Brantley, Melky Cabrera, Eduardo Nunez, Hernan Perez and Alex Gordon.

 

It's like a who's-who of guys who took several years for it to click. Also, nearly every guy on that list is a negative defensively. There also isn't any real superstars in LF anymore.

 

Like I said, I am not saying give up on him at all....I'm saying he's not all that good right now. And, not being good, that's part of the problem. While the pitching is terrible, their lack of even above average players, or great players, is a real problem. They have Sano and who else that we know is even going to be a good hitter on this roster after next year?

[Deduno Abides]

Per Fangraphs, only one left fielder younger than Rosario has a higher WRC+: Michael Conforto. Players with lower wRC+ include Kyle Schwarber, Andrew Benintendi and Gregor Polanco.

 

 

Suggested changes for the Twins and Twins fans:

 

 

1. Stop getting fed up with young players and wanting to write them off. This team has lost WAR repeatedly by flipping the bozo bit too early. Hopefully readers of TD don't need a list.

2. Stop imputing mental states or attitudes to players with whom you've never had a conversation. Meeting them at TwinsFest doesn't count as a conversation. Reading LEN3 or Souhan gives zero insight into what someone is thinking or what he cares about.

 

That said, if management thinks Granite can match Rosario's offensive value and improve on his defense, and that Rosario would benefit from a short opportunity to work on his defense, switching them would be fine.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Per Fangraphs, only one left fielder younger than Rosario has a higher WRC+: Michael Conforto. Players with lower wRC+ include Kyle Schwarber, Andrew Benintendi and Gregor Polanco.


Suggested changes for the Twins and Twins fans:


1. Stop getting fed up with young players and wanting to write them off. This team has lost WAR repeatedly by flipping the bozo bit too early. Hopefully readers of TD don't need a list.
2. Stop imputing mental states or attitudes to players with whom you've never had a conversation. Meeting them at TwinsFest doesn't count as a conversation. Reading LEN3 or Souhan gives zero insight into what someone is thinking or what he cares about.

That said, if management thinks Granite can match Rosario's offensive value and improve on his defense, and that Rosario would benefit from a short opportunity to work on his defense, switching them would be fine.

 

I couldn't agree with paragraph 2 more strongly. 

[Deduno Abides]

I meant to post here that I'm open to a Rosario replacement as soon as a clearly superior option presents itself, and to point out that Rosario falls to 17th if sorted by WAR on your list. But then I noticed a bit of a trend with those players; of those guys ahead of him, only Michael Conforto is younger.

 

With the rest, there are a lot of guys in their late 20's and some into their 30's on that list and almost all of them toiled for a few years and were late bloomers, coming into their own at or after Rosario's age. Aaron Hicks, Marcell Ozuna, Aaron Alther, Cameron Maybin, Khris Davis, Adam Duvall, Michael Brantley, Melky Cabrera, Eduardo Nunez, Hernan Perez and Alex Gordon.

 

It's like a who's-who of guys who were relatively well regarded prospects but took several years for it to click. Also, nearly every guy on that list is a negative defensively. There also isn't any real superstars in LF anymore.

 

You beat me to it.

[drjim]

Reading those other performances and ages really does hammer home how the Twins really are rolling with young guys at several everyday positions.

 

Hard to call for playing young guys/rebuild and then pile on when they struggle. Still part of the process.

 

With Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco, Sano, just going to be the ups and downs of young players.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Reading those other performances and ages really does hammer home how the Twins really are rolling with young guys at several everyday positions.

Hard to call for playing young guys/rebuild and then pile on when they struggle. Still part of the process.

With Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco, Sano, just going to be the ups and downs of young players.

 

Which is why some of us want even more young players up, to get their feet wet....like some RPs for example. So the manager might trust them next year when needed.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[DJL44]

Rosario reminds me of a young Sammy Sosa - loaded with talent and aggressive but still learning the game. Not all people who remind me of young Sammy Sosa turn into an older Sammy Sosa.

 

Regarding his defense - UZR might be overrating Buxton and underrating Rosario. If their range overlaps and Buxton is taking the discretionary chances between CF and LF then Buxton will look good and Rosario will look bad. The same phenomenon happened with Andruw Jones in the Braves outfield.

 

I agree that consternation regarding Rosario looks pretty tone deaf considering his performance of late.

 

[jimbo92107]

I loves me some Eddie, but he needs to gain some maturity, especially at the plate. He wants to be Vlad Guerrero, but even Vlad had an eye for balls and strikes. Eddie swings at anything, and even his potent swing needs to meet the ball to get a hit. 

 

I was hoping that seeing a super-disciplined guy like like Grossman would provide him a good example, but Eddie has ignored attempts to temper his hacks with a little basic batting sense. As a result, he's not getting good pitches to hit. Why throw strikes when a guy will swing out of the zone? I bet right now Rosario gets fewer pitches in the strike zone than just about anybody else in the league. 

 

If he's got any options left, I'd send Eddie down for Granite right now. Granite is a good contact hitter with plate discipline, very fast in the OF, good arm, excellent base stealer. He may not have the "ceiling" of Rosario, but Granite's game right now would help the Twins more than Eddie's. 

[drjim]

 

Which is why some of us want even more young players up, to get their feet wet....like some RPs for example. So the manager might trust them next year when needed.

 

I'd be more offended if they were actually sitting on talent.

 

Assuming some production at AAA, Reed should be up soon.

[yarnivek1972]

Advanced defensive stats like UZR and DRS both explicitly attempt to quantify that. They look at the average rates for various scenarios - runners successfully going first-to-third, tagging up, scoring from second, etc - on hits to a particular position, and then compare to how a specific fielder fared.

They attempt, but I suspect they fall short. Average rates doesn't take specific runners into account. How many players with above average speed are holding?

[drjim]

 

I'd be more offended if they were actually sitting on talent.

 

Assuming some production at AAA, Reed should be up soon.

 

Plus they have now called up Rosario and Busenitz and it wasn't exactly inspiring. And they are probably the best of the options until Reed gets here, perhaps Melotakis.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Plus they have now called up Rosario and Busenitz and it wasn't exactly inspiring. And they are probably the best of the options until Reed gets here, perhaps Melotakis.

 

I just hope they are as patient with Busenitz as we are with Rosario.....so far, that has not been their MO with RPs.

[jorgenswest]

If they felt Randy Rosario was ready, it would have good to have had patience with him. Busenitz will turn 27 this year. Given the long term of his minor league performance, he is more likely a 13th/14th pitcher that shuttles back and forth rather than a guy you invest a few years into. When Hughes and Santiago return, he will likely move back to Rochester. I would prefer him over Breslow and Hughes but acknowledge they need some guys with options that can be rotated through. As long as they don't DFA him, we will see him again. At his age, he is going to need to perform when he gets the chance.

[drjim]

 

If they felt Randy Rosario was ready, it would have good to have had patience with him. Busenitz will turn 27 this year. Given the long term of his minor league performance, he is more likely a 13th/14th pitcher that shuttles back and forth rather than a guy you invest a few years into. When Hughes and Santiago return, he will likely move back to Rochester. I would prefer him over Breslow and Hughes but acknowledge they need some guys with options that can be rotated through. As long as they don't DFA him, we will see him again. At his age, he is going to need to perform when he gets the chance.

 

I would agree. Basically every relief pitcher that people are lamenting about a lack of a call up are at best in that 13th/14th pitcher range. Can be up and down for stretches, some value while they still have options, but easily replaceable.

 

And I would have no problem with Breslow being cut. Hughes they'll probably have to wait until mid next season, give a chance to recover from TOS.

[drjim]

 

I just hope they are as patient with Busenitz as we are with Rosario.....so far, that has not been their MO with RPs.

 

But why? What is it about Busenitz that you would expect to see? And which RPs so far have you wished they held on to?

 

There is no comparison between Busenitz and Rosario.

[Parker Hageman]

It was an all too familiar sight on Tuesday evening at Target Field: Eddie Rosario, in the name of being aggressive, making an unbelievably dumb play and costing his team.

 

On this occasion, against the White Sox, he fielded a ball in left field and chucked it toward home plate in a hopeless attempt to beat a runner scoring easily from second. The throw was off line and, as catcher Jason Castro ran over to catch it, Jose Abreu strode leisurely into second, credited with a 'double.'

 

 

Since I missed this play the first go 'round, I searched it up at Baseball Savant (video).

 

The remark about Castro running over to field it made me think that it was a terrible offline throw. It was actually Sano, who was set up for the relay, who nabbed it, albeit offline as well. (You can see Sano throw his arms up to call for it as Rosario reaches it so that may have influenced Rosario's decision-making.) 

 

The baseball play is that the throw should have gone into second to keep the double play in order with just one out. Plain and simple. Or, if Abreu insisted on continuing to second, he would have been toast (but it appears he only went ahead once Rosario committed to throwing to Sano). 

 

I will add there is a benefit for the decision-making to throw home in that situation. There run expectancy difference between a runner on 2B with one out and an runner on first with one out is .665 vs .509 (so a reduction of .155 runs to the defense's favor). Meanwhile, had Rosario cut Cabrera down at home, with Abreu on 2B with two outs would have a run expectancy of .319. I'm guessing none of that was going through Rosario's head as he tried to get behind the baseball. With a two-run lead, you have to be positive you can get a throw to nail the runner. 

 

Again, I think the throw should have gone into second but there's some logic behind the attempt to throw a runner out at home in that situation.