Article: Reality Check

[drjim]

Gonsalves has a ways to go.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would argue that Gonsalves will be a legitimate option to head north with the team in 2018, but he could very well start in AAA too.  Other than a September cup of coffee, I don't expect to see him here this year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would argue that Gonsalves will be a legitimate option to head north with the team in 2018, but he could very well start in AAA too.  Other than a September cup of coffee, I don't expect to see him here this year.

 

then this is pretty much your pitching staff next year, plus a pretty mediocre FA......how will they win next year?

[drjim]

 

then this is pretty much your pitching staff next year, plus a pretty mediocre FA......how will they win next year?

 

By trading Erv for prospects this summer.

 

Not sure rushing Gonsalves is the answer to this dilemma.

[Mike Sixel]

 

By trading Erv for prospects this summer.

 

Not sure rushing Gonsalves is the answer to this dilemma.

 

We disagree it would be rushing him, that's clear. 

[wsnydes]

 

By trading Erv for prospects this summer.

 

Not sure rushing Gonsalves is the answer to this dilemma.

If this is the approach, wouldn't Erv's value by higher at the deadline rather than the offseason?

 

I would imagine that if Gonsalves keeps up what he's doing, he's coming up in September for at least a cup of coffee regardless.  I don't it would be rushing him in that scenario, it would be prudent on the Twins part.  Give him a taste like Berrios got.  I have little doubt that actually helped him immensely this past offseason and we're seeing the rewards of that this season.  That sort of turnaround isn't what I expect from Gonsalves, but it is something to point towards.

Edited June 22, 2017 by wsnydes

[drjim]

 

If this is the approach, wouldn't Erv's value by higher at the deadline rather than the offseason?

 

I would imagine that if Gonsalves keeps up what he's doing, he's coming up in September for at least a cup of coffee regardless.  I don't it would be rushing him in that scenario, it would be prudent on the Twins part.  Give him a taste like Berrios got.  I have little doubt that actually helped him immensely this past offseason and we're seeing the rewards of that this season.  That sort of turnaround isn't what I expect from Gonsalves, but it is something to point towards.

 

I don't think a potential cup of coffee in September is rushing him, and it would be an especially good idea if the Twins fade and are out of it by then. But expecting him to be an effective starter in August for a team trying to compete instead of potentially adding a cheap (Pavano-like) option would be a mistake.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

then this is pretty much your pitching staff next year, plus a pretty mediocre FA......how will they win next year?

 

I wouldn't get a mediocre FA for one.  I'd spend big there.  They will need pitching now and in 3 years.  May as well get a good one. 

[drjim]

 

I don't think a potential cup of coffee in September is rushing him, and it would be an especially good idea if the Twins fade and are out of it by then. But expecting him to be an effective starter in August for a team trying to compete instead of potentially adding a cheap (Pavano-like) option would be a mistake.

 

All that said, if the Twins are still in it in September, I highly doubt Gonsalves comes up, unless they add no one and are desperate for a starter. And even then I'm skeptical.

 

He's potentially a fine 3-4 (more 4) going forward, but not the type that would really play up in the pen.

 

Much more likely, in my mind, that Romero comes up as a reliever.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I wouldn't get a mediocre FA for one.  I'd spend big there.  They will need pitching now and in 3 years.  May as well get a good one. 

 

There aren't many good FA pitchers next year.....I would love to see them go big, but there aren't many choices next year.

[wsnydes]

 

I don't think a potential cup of coffee in September is rushing him, and it would be an especially good idea if the Twins fade and are out of it by then. But expecting him to be an effective starter in August for a team trying to compete instead of potentially adding a cheap (Pavano-like) option would be a mistake.

I don't disagree.  I don't think any new call up can realistically be relied upon.  You can hope obviously, but young players will be young players.  I'm not "rushing" him to be a key cog this year, I'm "rushing" him in hopes that he can be a meaningful contributor next year.

 

The key for me would be what they give up to get a Pavano-esque pitcher.  I hated the Capps and Jepsen deals because they weren't clear upgrades to anything currently on the roster and even at the time I didn't really consider them cheap.  That's a lower bar at this point I think, but it's worth noting.

Edited June 22, 2017 by wsnydes

[diehardtwinsfan]

Side note, I do have high hopes for Trevor May next year, especially if he had the shorter TJS surgery

[mikecgrimes]

 

The Cleveland and Houston series should put an end to the 2017 mirage.  If you cannot keep up with and beat good teams at home, you are not going to go far in a post-season, even if you are lucky enough to make it there.

 

So the Twins should be sellers, try to get a few prospects that will help them next year and beyond and try to close holes with more trades or free agency (Michael Pineda might look pretty good in Twins' pinstripes) during the off-season.

This way, they can evaluate some of the kids as well...

 

Tell that to the 87 Twins.  If Berrios pitches 2 of the 10 games against Houston and Cleveland and wins both while at the same time we lose two others we're a half game out and have a decent record against the Indians overall.  It's silly to evaluate what just happened.  In Hindsight the Houston disaster didn't matter, we'll see where we go from here so far so good.

[wsnydes]

 

Side note, I do have high hopes for Trevor May next year, especially if he had the shorter TJS surgery

With the way this season has unfolded, I think his loss has had a larger impact than many figured it would, myself included.  I'm not sure what to expect from him next year, but if he can regain the form he had before they moved him to the bullpen it'll be just like acquiring a pretty good starter.  That would be a huge boost to the rotation for sure.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Tell that to the 87 Twins.  If Berrios pitches 2 of the 10 games against Houston and Cleveland and wins both while at the same time we lose two others we're a half game out and have a decent record against the Indians overall.  It's silly to evaluate what just happened.  In Hindsight the Houston disaster didn't matter, we'll see where we go from here so far so good.

 

You think maybe the 87 Twins were an outlier, maybe?

[jorgenswest]

if we don't think he can help in his first year, that is even MORE reason for him to pitch this year some...

I think we disagree in how we value experience in AA and AAA. Given that he has no AAA time, I don't think he is likely to be successful in the majors in August.

 

Once he has shown sustained success in AAA, it will be time for him to struggle in the majors. This is a pitcher who just passed 100 innings in AA. I think there is a lot to learn with 15 to 20 starts in AAA. I think a midseason move to AAA is best for his development. Moving to the majors without the development time in AAA could slow his development.

 

With adequate development, I think he can help in his first year. I don't think you speed up that process by skipping significant time in AAA and going to the majors.

Edited June 22, 2017 by jorgenswest

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think we disagree in how we value experience in AA and AAA. Given that he has no AAA time, I don't think he is likely to be successful in the majors in August.

Once he has shown sustained success in AAA, it will be time for him to struggle in the majors. This is a pitcher who just passed 100 innings in AA. I think there is a lot to learn with 15 to 20 starts in AAA. I think a midseason move to AAA is best for his development. Moving to the majors without the development time in AAA could slow his development.

With adequate development, I think he can help in his first year. I don't think you speed up that process by skipping significant time in AAA and going to the majors.

 

Well, I'd have him in AAA right now.....so we agree on that part for sure. It is, after all, the middle of the season, and he was good in AA last year. 

[bird]

 

Well, I'd have him in AAA right now.....so we agree on that part for sure. It is, after all, the middle of the season, and he was good in AA last year. 

 

 

Right now is finally here. ETown opens its schedule tonight. That means that, as the new draftees sign and report, we'll see that the organization is culling the rosters at the upper levels right now, to make room for prospects to advance a level right now. It will be interesting to see if they believe Gonsalves's and Jorge's and Romero's development is best served in Chattanooga or in Rochester right now.

 

We should also remember that, in Gonsalve's half-season in AA last year, he struggled with high pitch counts and fairly early departures a lot, and he walked a few too many batters, although he did make good progress on those fronts. He's still managing to throw a lot of pitches I think, so maybe there's more to work on under the surface.

Edited June 22, 2017 by birdwatcher

[Mike Sixel]

 

Right now is finally here. ETown opens its schedule tonight. That means that, as the new draftees sign and report, we'll see that the organization is culling the rosters at the upper levels right now, to make room for prospects to advance a level right now. It will be interesting to see if they believe Gonsalves's and Jorge's and Romero's development is best served in Chattanooga or in Rochester right now.

 

this is the time people assured me promotions would occur. I remain hopeful.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, we should see a bunch in the next week or two.  I suspect Gonsalves would be on that list to head to AAA.

[Jham]

You think maybe the 87 Twins were an outlier, maybe?

Ehhh, fashionable to claim that, but they won 91 games in '88 but just missed the playoffs pre-wild card. Less flukey than people think. Young teams can improve rapidly and go further than expected from time to time.

[mikecgrimes]

 

Ehhh, fashionable to claim that, but they won 91 games in '88 but just missed the playoffs pre-wild card. Less flukey than people think. Young teams can improve rapidly and go further than expected from time to time.

 

True and they lost the last 6 games after they clinched so the record in games that mattered was far better then the final record.

[drjim]

 

Right now is finally here. ETown opens its schedule tonight. That means that, as the new draftees sign and report, we'll see that the organization is culling the rosters at the upper levels right now, to make room for prospects to advance a level right now. It will be interesting to see if they believe Gonsalves's and Jorge's and Romero's development is best served in Chattanooga or in Rochester right now.

 

We should also remember that, in Gonsalve's half-season in AA last year, he struggled with high pitch counts and fairly early departures a lot, and he walked a few too many batters, although he did make good progress on those fronts. He's still managing to throw a lot of pitches I think, so maybe there's more to work on under the surface.

 

His hr rate has also spiked a little. Might be a fluke, might be the result of improvements in k and bb rates and to be more economical with his pitch counts. Seems like he has a few things to tighten up in AA, and should need to make around 10ish starts in AAA before he's even considered for the majors.

 

I had higher hopes when he first got back healthy that he might move quicker, but there is clearly some development still needed. I think he might get a couple of starts in the majors if the Twins fade, but they aren't going to use him if they are still in the race. Likely he goes into next season as the 7th or 8th starter.

[drjim]

 

yeah, we should see a bunch in the next week or two.  I suspect Gonsalves would be on that list to head to AAA.

 

I'm skeptical, but if he is promoted it might mean the front office thinks he is further along than I would guess observing from afar.

[drjim]

I realize I just did a little bit of a flip flop on Gonsalves, but did a little bit of a deeper dive over my lunch break inspired by birdwatcher's post.

 

I am concerned about his low inning totals in his past several starts. 6, 5, 5, 7. If he is ready to move along he should be going 7 on a regular basis (allowing the occasional slip up). He has decent stuff, but not electric. If he is having trouble putting away AA hitters in an economy of pitches he'd get absolutely killed by major league hitters.

 

I would guess the front office will want him to put together at least 3-4 good, deep starts in AA before he moves up to AAA. Once there, they'll probably want at least 10 starts. He is a good distance away from being able to compete in the bigs, the Twins will keep cycling through retreads before forcing him up in a position to fail.

 

They would maybe call up a Romero type to see if they can catch lightening (though not Romero this year because of inning limitations), but that is not the type of pitcher Gonsalves will be. He may get a couple starts in September if they fall out, just to give him a taste, but they aren't going to put him out there in a competitive game unless he really rips off something like 10 good starts in a row.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm skeptical, but if he is promoted it might mean the front office thinks he is further along than I would guess observing from afar.

 

They may give him another start or two, but I'd be pretty surprised if he wasn't in AAA some time in July.