Article: Reality Check

[yarnivek1972]

Totally get it - and I do understand. I hope I'm not coming off like I'm barking too hard at you guys. That said, let me get to the point:

 

Your theory assumes that many of the Twins prospects are going to pan out. I think we've learned the hard way that even "sure things" aren't guaranteed to even bat .200.

 

Are you waiting for 2020? Because by then, Dozier will be gone, Mauer will be retired, and Sano will be wearing a Yankees uniform. Guys like Vargas and Rosario won't be around either. What are we left with?

 

Can you give me your starting 9 players in 2020 and tell me the Twins will be better than they are now?

 

It's a rhetorical question, because nobody can predict the future. The reality of life is NOW. I can say for certainty that the Twins are 2 games out of first place NOW, with decent players and appear to be a few pitchers away from a playoff run. I'll take that against your 2019-2020 team any day.

 

Sano isn't going anywhere before 2020.

[bighat]

 

Sano isn't going anywhere before 2020.

 

My point was: most of the "core guys" that we have now, will be gone by the time the new guys are ready.

[h2oface]

No reality check needed for me. I was expecting Hughes, Santiago, and Belisle to be part of the problem, and Perkins will add to it when they obligatorily include him for some horrible innings. I was expecting Gibson to rebound and be better, and the bullpen to be horrible, and still expect Kintzler to totally blow up, especially if he keeps being used in the 9th. I was expecting the young position players to be better, (except ambivalence toward Buxton and his batting). I was expecting Sano to man 3rd adequately, and Berrios to shine. For this team to be around .500 with this pitching that was basically ignored and not addressed by the mostly absent new front office tandem in the off season, I think, it is indicative of how they really are ready now. I despise every year being not the year to try, and folks accepting that is just the way it is and has to be. Watching strange career minor league lifers get the call to pitch is disgusting. Do I have the answers? Probably. But they would need to pay me to get them.

[Mike Sixel]

No reality check needed for me. I was expecting Hughes, Santiago, and Belisle to be part of the problem, and Perkins will add to it when they obligatorily include him for some horrible innings. I was expecting Gibson to rebound and be better, and the bullpen to be horrible, and still expect Kintzler to totally blow up, especially if he keeps being used in the 9th. I was expecting the young position players to be better, (except ambivalence toward Buxton and his batting). I was expecting Sano to man 3rd adequately, and Berrios to shine. For this team to be around .500 with this pitching that was basically ignored and not addressed by the mostly absent new front office tandem in the off season, I think, it is indicative of how they really are ready now. I despise every year being not the year to try, and folks accepting that is just the way it is and has to be. Watching strange career minor league lifers get the call to pitch is disgusting. Do I have the answers? Probably. But they would need to pay me to get them.

More resigned than accepting.

[old nurse]

 

You sure? That seems a little light for the Twins.

Santana is having a career year. If he makes 200 IP next year or 400 IP this year and next he has  another year on the contract.  Regression to his average is as likely an outcome as continuing pitching like he has for the next 2 1/2 years.  Montgomery has been high strikeout, league average pitcher  who is likely to get better.  The trade becomes 5 years of a starter with a maybe serviceable bullpen arm for 1-2 years of a starter who is on average slightly better. Not anywhere near an equal trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

According to Sickles, Tampa Bay has two pitchers with a grade of B+ or better, Jose DeLeon and Brent Honeywell. In comparison, the Twins had Gonsalves and Romero in that category. Hu was graded at B-. Sickles gave the Rays a pre-season ranking of 12th, the Twins 15th.

Not so much the system, but in MLB and at the upper levels, Tampa has quite a few starters. That affords them some freedom to experiment with Hu's role, if they want.

[D.C Twins]

Any trade should include our infielders (only position of depth especially after we inexplicably bypassed two pitchers that could help us in the next two years so we could add to our only organizational strength).

 

After our draft, BOTH Gonslaves AND Romero need to hit for us to have long term success.... I hope and believe this can happen, but we definitely have left ourselves with little room for error (remember that other teams with more money will swoop up any FA pitching talent....we have to get lucky with the second tier)

[Old Twins Cap]

Yeah, people on these websites are always extolling trades and draft candidates.

 

In my long experience, the best way to upgrade a team is to have EXISTING players outperform their expectations.

 

Twins, unfortunately, have not had much of that lately.  But, in the past, they have.

 

At SOME POINT, the key to Twins success has to be that SOME PLAYERS STEP UP and outperform expectations.

 

Who that is, no can predict.  But that is always the elevator up in MLB.

[DocBauer]

Weird time to be a Twins fan. Lots of conflicting feels. I'd like to see them win, but I wouldn't buy if that means losing something, anything, of value down the road. Aren't we kicking ourselves right now for trading away Aaron Hicks and (at least for the moment) Alex Meyer? Keep all the kids, they're more valuable to an org like this. Reload in the offseason via free agency.

 

If you're not gonna be buyers, but don't really wanna be sellers either ... what do we have here? A team that finishes in the middle, which is basically the last thing you wanna be. Last season was brutal, but at least the result put the team in the best position to improve its talent in the draft and international signing period.

I really like this post a lot! And I think it speaks to a real conundrum that will hopefully sort itself out in the next month or so. I am NOT pointing fingers at anyone, nor am I trying to make a blatant blanket statement, but isn't it interesting that before the season started there was great debate about whether this team could even approach .500? And now that the team has done so, and lead their division for most of the Year, we are debating about potentially buying to make a run. I don't think that's necessary a cause and effect from several years of bad baseball and sudden, urgent optimism, but rather, a reflection of what we all see. And what we all see is a much, much better and improved team. Why? Because there is a LOT to like about this team. Much better defense. The offense is starting to click, and I'd argue, just STARTING to click. By next season, if not the second half of this year, just think how much better guys like Sano, Polanco, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Vargas might be. We might even throw in Grossmaan, improving and not the least bit old, and Adrianza might be. And very soon, we may be talking about contributions from Gordon, Granite, Garver, maybe even Vielma, Palka and Wade. When the worst position player on your team...production, ability and potential all factored in...is your backup catcher, you are on to something!

 

As to the pitching...well...thats to be continued in another post.

[Buddy Holly]

After reading all the comments everyone is tired of losing. I get it but, to win 77-83 games is not winning long term. To get better the team needs more major league pitching. Santana is having a above average year in some sense. He is benefiting from good defense behind him, because his stats don't bear that improvement, his ERA is the result  of defense. He is a 13-11 pitcher over his 13 years in the majors. He has went over 11 wins 5 times. He may exceed 13 win this year. Teams that are going for it in 2017 may over pay for him. The Twins don't match up with Houston, Cleveland, NY, Boston or Toronto with present Staff. They need to get what they can now for Santana, his value is at its highest. The pitchers in the minors are at least two years away. I want to win today also, but be realistic 2017  is not the year to go for it.  

[twinfan]

I expected the Twins to win 78 games this year and am sticking with that. Fortunately, the AL Central stinks overall and thus we have been able to grab first place for awhile. The biggest problem is their horrible inconsistent middle relief. They should probably dump half or most of them and get a few others. Belisle has been the worst. However, Molly doesn't let someone pitch more than an inning when he gets 3 outs without being scored on. He brings in someone else who gets bombed. Another concern is that we have several .250ish hitters with minimal (10-15 home run) power. Which ones do we keep is a big question. If I were the GM, I would NOT trade Dozier or Santana but would see if I can trade Mauer for some value. Joe deserves to play on a pennant contender in his final years and maybe we can get something good for him though we may have to pay some of his salary. You build through the draft and we are trying to do that. I am not a fan of teams that are "sellers" at the deadline. They rarely ever really get better and usually trade off their best assets.

[DocBauer]

Pitching: If Webster had a baseball exclusive dictionary, one of the definitions might be d) the Achilles heel of the Minnesota Twins.

 

TWO things right away: 1] the last administration is gone, so retrospection and creation simply do no good other than offering venting. 2] this was NOT going be fixed in one abbreviated off season by the current administration.

 

The issue really is, what do we do going forward?

 

Dozier is a really fine ballplayer. And he's the most easily replaceable, yet quality, asset the team has to trade for help. But will he bring enough back to be worth trading? Sure didn't seem like it this last off season. Will that really change now? Santana has real value, to the Twins, and to a contender, especially if they have sudden need and will overpay some. But his value is tough to define. He will eventually regress, but how far and how fast is pure speculation. I feel speculation he will suddenly fall off a cliff is unfair. Could happen to many a pitcher. And if it were true, then his value is suddenly diminished anyway. Would someone pay or overpay enough to make it worthwhile for the Twins to trade a quality arm for prospects? Or does he have more value the next season or two for a pitching starved team even if he regressed to a solid #3 starter?

 

As I see it, there are really only two options for the Twins at this point:

 

1] Make trades. Move Santana and/or Dozier for the best you can hope for. Move Gordon, Rosario/Granite, at least one of Gonsalves/Romero and a couple more solid prospects and try to come away with a solid SP who is cost controlled for a few years at least. This could help this season and future years. But you've also lost at least one, if not two, quality arms and possible the solid, proven arm of Santana. Not to mention other prospects.

 

2] Hold on. This doesn't mean you are giving up on this team. And maybe it requires some juggling, and some patience, and even a few crossed fingers. But in a season that was really meant for evaluation fromn the top on down and a continuation of the rebuild, you bank on Santana and Berrios. You stick with and keep working with Mejia. You get Santiago back healthy and ready to go and hope his head is on straight. You stick with and work with and kick the fanny of Gibson to keep being aggressive instead of trying to paint corners. By the second half of the season you have Gonsalves, Jorge, and possibly Romero at AAA along with Slegers, maybe, as later season options. (You also stretch Haley out as a starter on his rehab. I mean, why wouldn't you at this point?)

 

You work on the bullpen. Pressly comes back, better hopefully. You give Busentiz a real shot. Same with Hildenberger. Chargois and Jay get healthy and ramped up at some point. Reed, Curtiss and Melotakis get to AAA SOON to get ready for second half auditions/promotions.

 

Then, in the next off season, you can take a good heard look at what you have...or need...and make trades or a quality FA signing or two.

 

I'm not sure there is a right or wrong. But as much as I love this team and what they've done thus far, I tend to lean toward the second option.

[Blackjack]

 

Kohl Stewart is this year's ABW and Duensing in all trade proposals... 

 

What ever happened to ABW??

[h2oface]

 

What ever happened to ABW??

 

I don't know if this a rhetorical question or not, but if not, the answer is striking out about 40% of the time for three different AA or AAA teams/organizations in 114 at bats and 30 games and batting .193

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What ever happened to ABW??

 

he was DFAd in the offseason and has bounced around since then.

[Blackjack]

 

he was DFAd in the offseason and has bounced around since then.

I knew he was DFA'd, I was just curious to see where he ended up and whether he made in onto a major league roster.

[howieramone2]

 

In fairness, most of us wanted that when they really were rebuilding from scratch, and were criticized on this site then too.....

 

Do people really think fans that post here all the time want the team in a perpetual rebuilding process? Really?

 

Santana is 35, check out the long list of successful 35+ year old pitchers in history.....

Only the ones who want to trade Dozier and Santana for pie-in-the-sky. 

[howieramone2]

 

Heard a rumor the other day (can't for the life of me remember where) that the Twins were toying with the idea of trading Gordon (and cash?) for Chris Archer.   Not sure if that deal would fly but it does seem intriguing.

I would do it in a heartbeat. I would hate to see Gordon go, but the only other alternative I see is to trade our AA starting pitchers. Losing Gordon is less painful than Gonsalves, Romero, or Thorpe-types.

[laloesch]

 

Only the ones who want to trade Dozier and Santana for pie-in-the-sky. 

 

How is the thought of trading Dozier (has several guys behind him that can play 2nd or short) or Santana (free agent after next season possibly) "pie-in-the-sky"?  I get that there might be limited options in trading either one but "pie-in-the-sky"?  come-onnnn 

Edited June 20, 2017 by laloesch

[LaBombo]

 

What ever happened to ABW??

 

He caught on with Milwaukee...

 

http://d.thewhistle.com/media/uploads/baseball/running_of_sausages.gif

 

[Squirrel]

 

How is the thought of trading Dozier (has several guys behind him that can play 2nd or short) or Santana (free agent after next season possibly) "pie-in-the-sky"?  I get that there might be limited options in trading either one but "pie-in-the-sky"?  come-onnnn 

I think maybe he was referring to what some posters think they can get in return for those players as being 'pie-in-the-sky.'

[Jham]

As I've said before, the only players any team would give up a legit pitcher for is Sano, Buxton, or Kepler. All of those guys are apparently untouchable. We also don't want to waste the years we have that core. Our have them succumb to the malaise of losing. Bundling half the organization's prospects isn't feasible either. All our chips have flamed out, gotten hurt, moved to the pen.

 

The guys I'd dangle for pitching are Kepler, and Gordon. Both appear highly coveted, but unlikely to be all-star caliber players.

 

I'd also shop our draft picks pretty hard while teams have some fresh scoring reports and fear of missing out.

[yarnivek1972]

Just to be clear, Santana is not a free agent after 2018. He has an option that vests if he reaches 400 IP in 2017 and 2018 combined, provided he gets to 200 IP in 2018. He also has to pass a physical. Follow that? There will be a quiz later.

[bird]

 

Not so much the system, but in MLB and at the upper levels, Tampa has quite a few starters. That affords them some freedom to experiment with Hu's role, if they want.

 

True, they have better options at AAA than we do with the likes of Hurlbut, Slegers, and the dreadful collection of retreads they've punished us with to-date. Sickles shows TB with 10 pitchers in his top 20 preseason for them, the Twins with 11, BUT... Chargois, Burdi, Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay, and Thorpe...so we'd have to reach down to AA for Gonsalves, Romero, and Jorge, as Mejia's already up and Ynoa's years away.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Totally get it - and I do understand.  I hope I'm not coming off like I'm barking too hard at you guys.  That said, let me get to the point:

 

Your theory assumes that many of the Twins prospects are going to pan out.  I think we've learned the hard way that even "sure things" aren't guaranteed to even bat .200.  

 

Are you waiting for 2020?  Because by then, Dozier will be gone, Mauer will be retired, and Sano will be wearing a Yankees uniform.  Guys like Vargas and Rosario won't be around either.  What are we left with?

 

Can you give me your starting 9 players in 2020 and tell me the Twins will be better than they are now?  

 

It's a rhetorical question, because nobody can predict the future.  The reality of life is NOW.  I can say for certainty that the Twins are 2 games out of first place NOW, with decent players and appear to be a few pitchers away from a playoff run.  I'll take that against your 2019-2020 team any day. 

Nope not at all.

 

Of course not all prospects work out, but I don't know where anybody is banking on a majority of them to hit their ceiling. Prospects aren't lottery tickets; meaning they don't all carry the same chance for success. Higher end guys like Gonsalves, Romero, and Gordon are going to be the starting point to acquire a starting pitcher at the deadline. Unless they can somehow find get a front of the rotation guy with multiple years of team control (very unlikely) I'm not in favor of giving up what little high end talent this team has in AA. 

 

That doesn't mean I don't want them to get better, or do nothing, but improving the team doesn't have to mean giving up young arms for a rental. Every young player that makes up the core of this team will be here after 2020. Barring injuries I can't see players like Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios, or Polanco getting worse over the next few seasons so no, I'm not concerned about future performance.  

 

I get the "future isn't promised," argument, but making decisions that only involve "NOW," and where they are in the standings today is how half steps are made. One of the loudest (and legitimate) complaints over the past few seasons has centered around how directionless this organization has looked. Nobody is rooting for more time that this team can't contend, but a shot at a wild card loss or a first round sweep isn't worth what a rental is going to cost. 

[The Wise One]

 

You gotta give up something to get something.  Who are they going to give up to get a quality third starter and a couple of relief pitchers?  It will come at a premium cost too as we are inching up on the all-star break. 

 

No.  This team is not there yet.  Not without giving up Dozier and other pieces and that may still not be enough.

Yes sometimes you have to give up something to get something. Sometimes you do not. Adding a starter like Pavano cost the team nothing. Matt Capps cost the team a lot. Jon Rauch pitched well and cost nothing. Not many prospects work out as planned.   

[jorgenswest]

The Twins can wait until August as they did with Pavano and Rauch and get a cheap waiver deal on a veteran having a bad season. Should they wait to see which leftover veterans can pass through waivers after the trade deadline? They certainly will have more leverage at that time.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins can wait until August as they did with Pavano and Rauch and get a cheap waiver deal on a veteran having a bad season. Should they wait to see which leftover veterans can pass through waivers after the trade deadline? They certainly will have more leverage at that time.

 

Wouldn't you rather have Gonsalves by then, if nothing else has been done?

[jorgenswest]

Wouldn't you rather have Gonsalves by then, if nothing else has been done?

Absolutely. Good point. Though I don't expect he will be helpful this year. I also don't expect a waiver claim to be helpful. Pavano and Rauch far outperformed the first 3/4 of their seasons after joining the Twins. Gonsalves seems almost as likely to surprise with a good 6 weeks.

 

Pitching will be very expensive in July and though the Twins did find inexpensive pitching as suggested the wise one, I wanted to add that those deals took place after the trade deadline.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Absolutely. Good point. Though I don't expect he will be helpful this year. I also don't expect a waiver claim to be helpful. Pavano and Rauch far outperformed the first 3/4 of their seasons after joining the Twins. Gonsalves seems almost as likely to surprise with a good 6 weeks.

Pitching will be very expensive in July and though the Twins did find inexpensive pitching as suggested the wise one, I wanted to add that those deals took place after the trade deadline.

 

if we don't think he can help in his first year, that is even MORE reason for him to pitch this year some...