Article: Reality Check

[jsteve96]

I disagree that Mejia has been an erratic mess. without the 1 horrible start against Seattle he has a 4.13 ERA which is decent. 1 bad game destroyed it

[Otto von Ballpark]

I have no idea. The Rays let him start 3 games in AAA this year and then he made 8 relief appearances in AAA before coming up to the Rays.

Actually Hu was starting when they first called him up for bullpen work, and then he resumed bullpen work at AAA when they sent him down. He's come back to MLB for some long relief. Not sure what that means...

[old nurse]

 

Here is the logic:

you can be a seller and improve the team for both this season and the future.

 

Example trade:  Ervin Santana to the Yankees for Jordan Montgomery & Tyler Webb.

 

The Yankees get veteran leadership and the Twins get a starter who can be as good as Santana and a lefty piece for their pen who will likely be their best lefty for a while.

 

In other works, let them be buyers, but buyers of young, controllable, MLB-ready talent, giving as a return older veterans who will regress (Santana, Dozier, Santiago, Perkins, etc; of course given interest; on the other hand getting rid of dead weight for someone like a heartbeat is also a positive) supplemented with questionable prospects (eg. Kohl Stewart).

 

I am not talking about getting A-level prospects in return...

Every GM in MLB baseball would make your proposed deal in a heartbeat except 1. Brian Cashman

[Jham]

I'm with Cheif here. We're dangerously close to sending the message that losing is acceptable. Player's aren't dumb. They notice that their pay checks come in win or lose. If losses pile up, you can let your frustration pile up, or just accept it. If you want players to go through the motions, instill a culture that suggests that games won't matter for a couple years. Then see how prepared you are for games that matter. Wait... that just happened. We need team leadership. We need guys to make everyone feel uncomfortable. Keep everyone accountable.

 

I also agree with Thrylos in a sense. Brian Dozier may be part of the problem. Plouffe was. Nolasco was. Mauer may be. The players need to hold themselves accountable before we get them help. I think we may need to trade or dfa someone just to send a message to the remaining guys.

[MN_ExPat]

Heard a rumor the other day (can't for the life of me remember where) that the Twins were toying with the idea of trading Gordon (and cash?) for Chris Archer.   Not sure if that deal would fly but it does seem intriguing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Heard a rumor the other day (can't for the life of me remember where) that the Twins were toying with the idea of trading Gordon (and cash?) for Chris Archer.   Not sure if that deal would fly but it does seem intriguing.

 

NO CHANCE this is enough. No way.

[bighat]

 

I agree with Nick. I agree with Chief and Van, too. Houston and Cleveland do have better teams and it's going to be difficult to get past them let alone deep into the playoffs. But not impossible. So, I agree with Chief ... for cryin' out loud ... TRY! Give us a few more pieces to help put it together and try! 

 

Could not agree more with you & Chief, Chitown!   Fergodsakes, so many folks are just obsessed with "building a team" and almost seem to want the Twins to be perpetually tinkering with the future.  I don't get it.  It's bizarre to think that anyone would enjoy watching the professional team of their choice lose, and continuously hope that team sells off it's best players.

 

The Twins aren't a juggernaut.  But they're at a point where they're a .500 or above team in a league where they could sneak into the playoffs.  It seems like pitching is the main issue - add a few 'pen arms and go get an established starter.  That's not easy, but it's not impossible.  TRY!!!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Could not agree more with you & Chief, Chitown!   Fergodsakes, so many folks are just obsessed with "building a team" and almost seem to want the Twins to be perpetually tinkering with the future.  I don't get it.  It's bizarre to think that anyone would enjoy watching the professional team of their choice lose, and continuously hope that team sells off it's best players.

 

The Twins aren't a juggernaut.  But they're at a point where they're a .500 or above team in a league where they could sneak into the playoffs.  It seems like pitching is the main issue - add a few 'pen arms and go get an established starter.  That's not easy, but it's not impossible.  TRY!!!

 

In fairness, most of us wanted that when they really were rebuilding from scratch, and were criticized on this site then too.....

 

Do people really think fans that post here all the time want the team in a perpetual rebuilding process? Really?

 

Santana is 35, check out the long list of successful 35+ year old pitchers in history.....

[MN_ExPat]

 

NO CHANCE this is enough. No way.

I'd have to agree with you.  Don't see it happening at all.  Although I wonder if they added something like Kohl Stewart and Trey Cabbage to the deal it might fly.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd have to agree with you.  Don't see it happening at all.  Although I wonder if they added something like Kohl Stewart and Trey Cabbage to the deal it might fly.

 

Kohl Stewart has no trade value, does Cabbage?

 

Archer is going to cost 1 great  and 2 good prospects.

[MN_ExPat]

 

I don't even know where to start with this......the MLB draft is not the NBA or NFL drafts, You realize that no pitcher drafted was helping us next year right? Also Lewis doesn't have a "questionable bat" and their draft strategy was very good and we came out with a lot of talent as noted by many media outlets rather than having to tank the whole rest of the draft like Atlanta and Tampa had to do just to afford Wright and McKay. We came away with 7 top 200 players according to MLB.com (and every one of those guys were top 100 players in at least 1 publication), Atlanta came away with 2 and TB came away with 4 and all of those were reaches at their spot. We will know in about 5 years if it was a good discission or not but you NEVER draft for need in the MLB draft, that's how you end up with Kyle Gibson instead of Mike Trout or Mark Appel instead of Kris Bryant

Amen brother.

[Vanimal46]

 

Kohl Stewart has no trade value, does Cabbage?

 

Archer is going to cost 1 great  and 2 good prospects.

 

Kohl Stewart is this year's ABW and Duensing in all trade proposals... 

[KirbyDome89]

 

I could care less that Hicks and Meyer are gone and I have no doubt the new regime will be buyers. Package several of our overrated prospects for a proven starting pitcher. Once again, free agency is very overrated and is 50/50 at best. See what we get at the deadline, take a deep breath, then look at free agency.

You should.... Another starting pitcher and a starting corner outfielder would be huge right now. 

 

[MN_ExPat]

 

Kohl Stewart has no trade value, does Cabbage?

 

Archer is going to cost 1 great  and 2 good prospects.

Let the Wild Rumpus commence!!

 

In all seriousness, I'm just throwing names out.   I don't believe that Stewart will pan out as reliable MLB pitcher and Cabbage is an athletic infielder who really hasn't seemed to realize his potential and fully adjust to  professional ball (at least offensively).

 

I fully agree, Tampa isn't going to give Archer away without getting something major in return.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Could not agree more with you & Chief, Chitown!   Fergodsakes, so many folks are just obsessed with "building a team" and almost seem to want the Twins to be perpetually tinkering with the future.  I don't get it.  It's bizarre to think that anyone would enjoy watching the professional team of their choice lose, and continuously hope that team sells off it's best players.

 

The Twins aren't a juggernaut.  But they're at a point where they're a .500 or above team in a league where they could sneak into the playoffs.  It seems like pitching is the main issue - add a few 'pen arms and go get an established starter.  That's not easy, but it's not impossible.  TRY!!!

I'll echo Mike and say that I don't think anybody enjoys watching bad baseball for 6+ seasons. Rebuilds are ugly and the process can unfortunately be long. Some teams are far better at doing them effectively (Hello Houston and Chicago.) We're finally seeing a foundation forming after a delayed start to the process. To get to this stage and then start selling off prospects for rentals/a chance to drag a seriously flawed team into the playoffs this season is the equivalent of buying the cheapest materials you can in a rush to finish the project. If the goal is a sustained window of contention, which I believe it is, then I can be patient. 

 

That said if the trade talks revolve around bringing in a starter with multiple years of team control I'm all ears. The Twins are likely going to have to make significant trades to improve the pitching staff. Barring some miracle, the Pohlad's piggy bank isn't breaking open and this team isn't spending real money in FA to improve the front end of the rotation. 

[drjim]

 

Actually Hu was starting when they first called him up for bullpen work, and then he resumed bullpen work at AAA when they sent him down. He's come back to MLB for some long relief. Not sure what that means...

 

It means he is a marginal pitcher, maybe a backend guy or more likely a middle reliever. Which will make this trade worth a lot less consternation than it has received.

[drjim]

 

Every GM in MLB baseball would make your proposed deal in a heartbeat except 1. Brian Cashman

 

You sure? That seems a little light for the Twins.

[drjim]

I know it's too bad this was against Cleveland, but do people really think that much differently about the team now than they did early last week?

 

They'll likely bounce back and take 2 or (probably) 3 from the Sox, and be close to where they were before. The young bats are always going to be a roller coaster, enjoy the ride this year!

[gunnarthor]

 

Heard a rumor the other day (can't for the life of me remember where) that the Twins were toying with the idea of trading Gordon (and cash?) for Chris Archer.   Not sure if that deal would fly but it does seem intriguing.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins were kicking around the idea of trading Gordon (or Polanco or Dozier or Lewis). Not sure what the level or interest would be. Rays, assuming they put Archer on the market, would want a strong return. He's signed for 2018-2019 as well so a team gets 2.5 years out of the trade. He's only had one big WAR year - 2015. He was a 1.8 WAR guy last year despite 200+ innings and 10 k/9.  I guess his home park is pretty good for pitchers.

 

So a trading team could expect roughly 500 innings and, what, 7 WAR? So that's probably not the Sale return but more than just Gordon.

[gunnarthor]

 

Would Eddie Rosario net us anything. Does he still have enough upside that he would bring anything back. His flaws in his swing and his lack of patience or ability to track pitches in the strike zone seem apparent. Does his overall athleticism and occasional power bring anything back that could help the rotation now?

Sure, but other teams would probably put his value at 4th OF and maybe give a slight bonus for youth and years of control. Better than Sam Fuld which got us Tommy Milone, for example. Maybe you could find another Hector Santiago type pitcher with 1 year of control?

 

[h2oface]

If you aren't trying to win, why even play? May as well just take the season off, eh? All future and no now. The endless concession. Where the unacceptable becomes the normal. Yuk.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I disagree that Mejia has been an erratic mess. without the 1 horrible start against Seattle he has a 4.13 ERA which is decent. 1 bad game destroyed it

I'm a big fan of Mejia but he has a 4.9 BB/9 rate and a 6.01 FIP, has pitched past the fifth inning only twice in nine starts. He's on thin ice. (Or would be, if they had anything for alternatives.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins were kicking around the idea of trading Gordon (or Polanco or Dozier or Lewis). Not sure what the level or interest would be. Rays, assuming they put Archer on the market, would want a strong return. He's signed for 2018-2019 as well so a team gets 2.5 years out of the trade. He's only had one big WAR year - 2015. He was a 1.8 WAR guy last year despite 200+ innings and 10 k/9. I guess his home park is pretty good for pitchers.

 

So a trading team could expect roughly 500 innings and, what, 7 WAR? So that's probably not the Sale return but more than just Gordon.

Archer has super-affordable team options for 2020 and 2021 too.

[gunnarthor]

 

Archer has super-affordable team options for 2020 and 2021 too.

Oh yeah, you're right. I mis-read that.

 

So add in his age 31 and 32 years so, maybe 800-900 innings and 10 WAR? 

Edited June 19, 2017 by gunnarthor

[Platoon]

In fairness, most of us wanted that when they really were rebuilding from scratch, and were criticized on this site then too.....

 

Do people really think fans that post here all the time want the team in a perpetual rebuilding process? Really?

 

Santana is 35, check out the long list of successful 35+ year old pitchers in history.....

Thanks! I don't think looking at this roster, and this pitching staff, and suggesting ways to improve it is at all indicative of wanting a constant rebuild. I view it more as reality. The Twins are far more entertaining to watch than last year. There's some semblance of talent on the field. But for the FO to think that this pitching staff could take us to even a second WC spot would border on malfeasance. Making a desperate trade for a faux WC race would set this orginisation back a year at least. It sucks after six years, but the future is still where it's at in TwinsWorld.

[Thrylos]

 

I think those types of trades might be pretty dangerous. Maybe Montgomery is more than he seems but he also might be another Tyler Duffey. He wasn't a highly regarded pitcher and most scouting reports had him as a backend guy or long relief. Tyler Webb is a 26 year old relief pitcher who has never reached the majors but putting good numbers in AAA. That kind of trade has pretty big risk.

 

And Santana, half an elbow ligament and/or another PED conviction away from ending his career at 34 years old is not a risk?

[gunnarthor]

 

And Santana, half an elbow ligament and/or another PED conviction away from ending his career at 34 years old is not a risk?

Sure but that's probably not the right way to look at trades. I'm ok with trading Santana but the return you suggested looks bad to me. Webb is a career minor leaguer so far. If our scouts think Montgomery's legit, that's one thing. But a handful of starts in the majors probably isn't enough to throw out the scouting reports in the offseason.

[bird]

 

Is Tampa Bay loaded at SP in their organization? Because Hu is now a reliever in AAA... 

 

 

According to Sickles, Tampa Bay has two pitchers with a grade of B+ or better, Jose DeLeon and Brent Honeywell. In comparison, the Twins had Gonsalves and Romero in that category. Hu was graded at B-. Sickles gave the Rays a pre-season ranking of 12th, the Twins 15th. 

[bird]

 

Jepsen almost pitched us into the play-offs, since we came up short it was a bad trade. That's silly. Hindsight is truly a wonderful tool.

 

In Mike Sixel's defense, which just about kills me    , many of us were foresighted enough to say that, while Jepsen was a good get, he was late to the party and not enough.

Edited June 19, 2017 by birdwatcher

[bighat]

 

To get to this stage and then start selling off prospects for rentals/a chance to drag a seriously flawed team into the playoffs this season is the equivalent of buying the cheapest materials you can in a rush to finish the project.

 

Totally get it - and I do understand.  I hope I'm not coming off like I'm barking too hard at you guys.  That said, let me get to the point:

 

Your theory assumes that many of the Twins prospects are going to pan out.  I think we've learned the hard way that even "sure things" aren't guaranteed to even bat .200.  

 

Are you waiting for 2020?  Because by then, Dozier will be gone, Mauer will be retired, and Sano will be wearing a Yankees uniform.  Guys like Vargas and Rosario won't be around either.  What are we left with?

 

Can you give me your starting 9 players in 2020 and tell me the Twins will be better than they are now?  

 

It's a rhetorical question, because nobody can predict the future.  The reality of life is NOW.  I can say for certainty that the Twins are 2 games out of first place NOW, with decent players and appear to be a few pitchers away from a playoff run.  I'll take that against your 2019-2020 team any day.