Sonny Gray Trade Target?

[Loosey]

With Oakland looking like sellers, what do you think they would ask for in return for Sonny Gray?  Gray isn't exactly your prototypical frontline Ace, but is a "high-end" #2 starter on almost any team and can pitch as a #1 for extended periods of time.  On the surface he doesn't look spectacular this year, but his peripherals look awfully close to his 2015 All-Star season.  Mix in the Twins outfield and you might have something here that could be a nice looking piece of the rotation for a few years.

 

Gray isn't a Free Agent until after the 2020 season and the Twins looking like they may be ready to be real life contenders in a year if things fall into place would make something with Gray make sense.

 

The question would become what would Oakland ask for in return?  I assume some combination of Gonsalves/Gordon/Romero would be a starting point.    

 

Having a 1-2 punch of Berrios and Gray would look very nice for a few years.  But is he sturdy enough to give up some very solid prospects?

 

 

 

 

[Rhino and Compass]

I think for a team that brought in a new FO with an emphasis on it's ability to develop pitching talent, moving two pitching prospects for one pitcher with an injury history doesn't seem like the appropriate type of gamble. I would say that the team would be loathe to give up any of their top end pitching talent, especially the younger guys that they have more time to tinker with before the reach the Show.

 

Now, whether it be for Gray or some other youngish pitcher, I foresee Gordon, or perhaps even Polanco being a major component of any offer, especially given the redundancy of middle infield prospects in the system. I could also see someone like Palka's name being bandied about, but I would be surprised to see the top pitchers be dangled so early in Falvey/Levine's tenures.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think for a team that brought in a new FO with an emphasis on it's ability to develop pitching talent, moving two pitching prospects for one pitcher with an injury history doesn't seem like the appropriate type of gamble. I would say that the team would be loathe to give up any of their top end pitching talent, especially the younger guys that they have more time to tinker with before the reach the Show.

 

Now, whether it be for Gray or some other youngish pitcher, I foresee Gordon, or perhaps even Polanco being a major component of any offer, especially given the redundancy of middle infield prospects in the system. I could also see someone like Palka's name being bandied about, but I would be surprised to see the top pitchers be dangled so early in Falvey/Levine's tenures.

 

Why would it be better to give up your starting MIF (gordon or Polanco) for the next 5-8 years for a pitcher, than 2 pitching prospects?

 

Palka has no trade value, none.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Why would it be better to give up your starting MIF (gordon or Polanco) for the next 5-8 years for a pitcher, than 2 pitching prospects?

 

Palka has no trade value, none.

It's something you might do if you had no plans to trade Dozier.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's something you might do if you had no plans to trade Dozier.

 

Dozier is a FA in 1.5 years, and is approaching the wrong side of his aging curve, most probably. Are you going to re-sign him?

[yarnivek1972]

 

Dozier is a FA in 1.5 years, and is approaching the wrong side of his aging curve, most probably. Are you going to re-sign him?

 

Didn't say that I personally would sign him.  Merely that trading Polanco or Gordon would be something you would do if your intention was to not trade (and perhaps resign) Dozier.  I'm kinda on the fence on it.  The Twins do not have ANY right handed power bats in their system anywhere close to ready (other than Sano of course).  Nick Gordon, LaMonte Wade even Palka.  All lefties.  Kepler and Rosario are lefties.  Castro is here for two more years, he also is a lefty.  Sure, there's Park.  But I did say "anywhere close to ready".  I have doubts that Park will ever be an impactful MLB player.  He turns 31 in a month - which makes him almost a full year older than Dozier - and has only 3 HR in 130 plus AB at AAA.

 

I'm certainly not going to dangle a 5 year deal to Dozier.  But extending him 2 or 3 years beyond what he is signed through now is something I might consider this offseason or maybe next year in ST, if the price is right.

[jorgenswest]

I would think it would take two key top young players. Someone will offer a combination like...

 

Up the middle player in Gordon or Polanco.

Starting pitcher in Gonsalves or Romero.

 

Additionally, they might need to add a player or 2 in A ball to beat the other offers. Acquiring a mid rotation pitcher is going to hurt.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Gray isn't a Free Agent until after the 2020 season

Gray is a FA after 2019, actually. B-Ref says 2020 because that will be his first FA season. So, 2.5 years of control for Gray.

[howieramone2]

I would love it if they would take Romero and Jorge, but believe they will want Thorpe as one of the two. I consider Gonsalves and Stewart to be untouchable, but would listen to offers on our other top pitching prospects. 

[drock2190]

I'm guessing by the end of this series, we will be talking about who to SELL, not who to buy. 

 

This team isn't one pitcher away. It's a whole bullpen plus 1 good starter away.

[twinsfanstreif]

I would love it if they would take Romero and Jorge, but believe they will want Thorpe as one of the two. I consider Gonsalves and Stewart to be untouchable, but would listen to offers on our other top pitching prospects.

 

Why is Stewart untouchable? I hope you mean Gordon

[howieramone2]

 

Why is Stewart untouchable? I hope you mean Gordon

Stewart has pitched all of 24 innings this year before being injured and I am more than aware that many successful pitchers are not strikeout pitchers.

 

Berrios is shining, Gonsalves is on deck, and Stewart is in the hole. 

[Tibs]

I'm very interested in trying to get someone like Sonny Gray, but there is absolutely no way I include Nick Gordon in the deal. I would like to keep Gonsalves, and there is no way I send Gonsalves and Romero in a deal for Gray. I know you have to give up good prospects to get major leaguers, but Sonny Gray does not cost a king's ransom in prospects right now. He was pretty bad last year and he is giving up a lot of hits again this year. 

 

Does Oakland have a bad defense? Maybe Gray is just unlucky right now. Can you justify making a major deal based on luck?

[kab21]

This is exactly the type of move the Twins should be making. It is very easy to see that the Twins biggest weakness this year and next year is pitching. All of Gray's advanced stats show him pitching at his best although his BAPIP, HR/FB% and ERA (all luck stats) have been poor. Check out his velocity, K:BB and swstr%.

 

Nick Gordon is a very good prospect but this wouldn't be a bad time to sell high on him if you can bring back an excellent pitcher. Don't let his .874 OPS fool you. He has a .395 BAPIP and a 22% K rate. I know that this criticism will immediately bring backlash. He is a very good prospect but he shouldn't be considered untouchable for a pitcher that would be a 2/3 (I think 2) for 2.5 years.

 

I don't want to trade Gordon but adding a pitcher like Gray completely changes my outlook for the team. People keep saying that this team isn't one player away but actually they are. A front end starter is that one player. They still need to find a few pieces in the bullpen but those aren't impossible to find (just look in the minors for example).

 

Gray

Santana

Berrios

 

this is a legit rotation

[Andrew]

Any chance we can get Gray and Jesse Hahn? so our rotation actually would start to look legit and I'd have to believe one of Turley, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, or even Heston can fill in the 5th spot. I know it would probably take Gonsalves and Romero +. I would offer those two plus Blankenhorn, Stewart, and maybe even Rosario (and put Grossman at full time RF. Not my favorite idea, but he hasn't been that bad in the field this year) My hope is that we don't have to give up Polanco or Gordon. I wouldn't be opposed to it, as I believe everyone is very much available (except Sano) and I feel we'd be better off-road wait and see if we trade Dozier or extend him. If they did then one of the two would be available

[USAFChief]

Stewart has pitched all of 24 innings this year before being injured and I am more than aware that many successful pitchers are not strikeout pitchers.

 

Berrios is shining, Gonsalves is on deck, and Stewart is in the hole.

 

If the Twins tried to use Stewart as a major piece of a Gray trade, the A's hang up the phone and don't take a return call.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Gray is definitely the kind of player the Twins should be targeting but only if the price is reasonable. Gray looks like a better pitcher this season but wasn't very good last year. His peripherals are outperforming his ERA but I'm wary of any pitcher who calls the Coliseum home for half his games, particularly one who has never relied on swing and miss stuff to succeed.

[kab21]

 

Gray is definitely the kind of player the Twins should be targeting but only if the price is reasonable. Gray looks like a better pitcher this season but wasn't very good last year. His peripherals are outperforming his ERA but I'm wary of any pitcher who calls the Coliseum home for half his games, particularly one who has never relied on swing and miss stuff to succeed.

People in this thread are hemming and hawing about Gonsalves, Romero and Gordon though. Gonsalves can only dream about being as good as Gray. Romero has stuff but probably ends up in the bullpen or injured. Gordon is legitimately good but still flawed. Trading from this pool to get a #2/3 (buy low) is a great value.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

People in this thread are hemming and hawing about Gonsalves, Romero and Gordon though. Gonsalves can only dream about being as good as Gray. Romero has stuff but probably ends up in the bullpen or injured. Gordon is legitimately good but still flawed. Trading from this pool to get a #2/3 (buy low) is a great value.

Absolutely. In no way do I mean to say Gray isn't a pretty good pitcher but he's a couple of years from his last #2 season. And his performance this season looks pretty good but he's still in SSS territory with an extreme home/road split.

 

Like you said, a great buy low candidate but we need to consider who Gray is going forward. I'm skeptical he's ever going to be the 2014-15 Gray again and that's okay. It means the Twins might be able to get him for a reasonable price but it's unlikely he's going to be a savior... just a decent/good pitcher, something the Twins are in dire need of right now.

[DJSim22]

Usually I find the trade threads here to be more hilarious than anything, but I must say this one has me thinking.  Gray is flawed, but a younger starter with a past record.  I doubt the current FO makes this move in their first year, but I'd definitely look into it.  If Romero and Gordon are not part of the deal, I think I'd be swayed towards making the deal.  If you solidify the starting rotation, the bullpen becomes much easier to fix. 

[kab21]

 

Absolutely. In no way do I mean to say Gray isn't a pretty good pitcher but he's a couple of years from his last #2 season. And his performance this season looks pretty good but he's still in SSS territory with an extreme home/road split.

 

Like you said, a great buy low candidate but we need to consider who Gray is going forward. I'm skeptical he's ever going to be the 2014-15 Gray again and that's okay. It means the Twins might be able to get him for a reasonable price but it's unlikely he's going to be a savior... just a decent/good pitcher, something the Twins are in dire need of right now.

He is at the point that swstr and K/BB rates start becoming a significant sample size. The stats that people are noticing (and calling him not a #2) are still in SSS territory.

 

He had one off year and you aren't sure he is ever going to be as good as his first 2.5 years? This seems to be an argument looking for excuses instead of looking at numbers. In fact if you actually look at his 2016 season (the seeming reason for your skepticism) that looks like a SSS problem since none of his rate stats dramatically changed but his luck stats (HR/FB, LOB% and BAPIP) significantly changed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He is at the point that swstr and K/BB rates start becoming a significant sample size. The stats that people are noticing (and calling him not a #2) are still in SSS territory.

Gibson had similar numbers for a longer stretch of play in 2015. That's my point. The sample size is still in questionable territory. Could Gray become the pitcher he was in the past? Sure, absolutely. Is he that guy right now? Of that, I'm not sure.

 

Hence, skepticism.

 

Gray, if any form of healthy, is at least a serviceable starter. He has the ability to be much better than that. Right now, he looks to be back to his former self but I'm going to need a lot more than 50 innings to pay for 2014-2015 Gray.

 

And that's not even a slightly unreasonable opinion to have on the subject. I'm not sure why it's controversial that I've said multiple times that Gray is a great guy to target, I'm simply not willing to break open the farm system to get him based on his performance from two and three seasons ago.

[Darius]

There's not really a question it would be an upgrade (nearly any warm body would).

 

But, how much does it really help? I'm not sure. It probably adds some wins, but does it make them a threat to win a playoff series or two (if they get in)? If not, I'm not really interested in trading away some of the few good prospects left in the system.

 

I would've preferred the approach of signing a couple marginal free agents to 1-2 year deals (see Chicago's Holland deal) in the offseason. If you're in the mix, you have some depth there. If not, you trade some away for a bag of balls. Doesn't affect the following year.

 

I still don't think this team makes the playoffs. The Indians have a run in them. The Royals are suddenly back in the mix. The Tigers could be there if they stay healthy. The Mariners look more well rounded, and might get King Felix and Paxton back to form at some point. The Angels are hanging around and will get the best player in the history of the game back. The Rays have the pitching to turn it on at some point. I just don't feel good about the chances when this team can't hold anybody to less than a touchdown consistently, with or without Grey.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If not Gray, then some other starter. Trade a couple of prospects. We just drafted some new ones.

[Riverbrian]

David Phelps

 

He's a guy I'd like the Twins to acquire in a trade. 

 

He'd be a big help in the bullpen but he could also be stretched out into a decent starter and he may not cost as much as other decent starters. (My Assumption... No Idea is I assume correctly). 

 

The Marlins had him work out of the rotation last year out of necessity and he did fairly well. 

 

 

[Rhino and Compass]

 

Why would it be better to give up your starting MIF (gordon or Polanco) for the next 5-8 years for a pitcher, than 2 pitching prospects?

 

Not necessarily better, but I think more plausible. It seemed in the draft, the new FO showed their cards in regards to their attitude towards pitching prospects. Several good players rather than a few great ones. If they are high on guys they think they can develop, then I don't think they are going to be included in a trade for another pitcher. I assume they envision a bright future for both of the guys listed in the question. 

 

I haven't clicked around, so honest question: What are your thoughts on Lewis? I assumed his selection provided some prospect redundancy iin the middle infield

[mudcat14]

E. Rosario & Gordon for Gray & Doolittle.  Do the A's hang-up or consider the offer.  Granite is ready to play LF and lead-off.  Polanco, Escobar, Adrianza & Vielma are enough insurance at SS until Dozier leaves and/or Palacios is ready.  That doesn't even take Wander Javier or Royce Lewis into account.  I like Gordon, but he's worth more as a trade chip than as a rostered Twin.

[The Wise One]

Sonny Gray would cost at least one of the AA pitchers as well as some ranked prospect and spare ports.  Jaime Garcia cost that and he is not as good as Gray. Gray Is not as good as he was but still would be better than most of what is available out there. The price will go higher if a couple of teams are showing a desperation for starting pitching. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

E. Rosario & Gordon for Gray & Doolittle.  Do the A's hang-up or consider the offer.  Granite is ready to play LF and lead-off.  Polanco, Escobar, Adrianza & Vielma are enough insurance at SS until Dozier leaves and/or Palacios is ready.  That doesn't even take Wander Javier or Royce Lewis into account.  I like Gordon, but he's worth more as a trade chip than as a rostered Twin.

A's won't value Rosario much. They highly value OBP and defense, and Rosario's OBP is atrocious and his D has not been as great this year.  I could really see them valuing Granite though. I really don't want to trade Gordon. I'd offer Granite, Polanco and one of either Gonsalves or Romero.

[mudcat14]

 

A's won't value Rosario much. They highly value OBP and defense, and Rosario's OBP is atrocious and his D has not been as great this year.  I could really see them valuing Granite though. I really don't want to trade Gordon. I'd offer Granite, Polanco and one of either Gonsalves or Romero.

 

I can't see the Twins surrendering any of the AA pitchers.  Maybe one of the Wells, (Lachlan or Tyler), but no one who could potentially help this season.