Article: Twins Throw Curveball With Draft Strategy

[Steve Lein]

 

You'd gotta think that Enlow immediately cracks the Twins top 10 prospects.  A 1-5 group of Lewis, Gordon, Romero, Gonsalves, Kiriloff (not necessarily in that order) followed by 6-10 of Enlow, Jay, Díaz, Mejía, and your favorite of of Stewart/Blankenhorn/Wade (again not in that order) really improves this top 10.  

 

I'd also think Rooker would fit in the 10-15 range (something like Palka's floor, more ceiling).  De La Torre, Bechtold, and Barnes are probably in the 20-35 range, too. 

 

That sounds like a good strategy to me! 

 

Just spitballing this quick after the draft, but we basically agree:

 

1. Nick Gordon

2. Royce Lewis

3. Fernando Romero

4. Stephen Gonsalves

5. Alex Kirilloff

6. Wander Javier

7. Tyler Jay

8. Blayne Enlow

9. Lewin Diaz

10. Brent Rooker

 

There's also a lot of talent after those names...

[Tibs]

The more I read and see of Enlow, the more I like him over Hunter Greene. Enlow's curveball is filthy. Obviously Greene has all the potential in the world if he can figure out how to throw breaking pitches, but that's a big if with high schoolers.

 

With how quickly he signed, I'm beginning to wonder if Enlow and the Twins did in fact have a deal in place before he was picked.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Just spitballing this quick after the draft, but we basically agree:

 

1. Nick Gordon

2. Royce Lewis

3. Fernando Romero

4. Stephen Gonsalves

5. Alex Kirilloff

6. Wander Javier

7. Tyler Jay

8. Blayne Enlow

9. Lewin Diaz

10. Brent Rooker

 

There's also a lot of talent after those names...

 

I can't put an injured RP that high. No way Jay is in the top 10 for me anymore. Sigh, bummer.

 

I think Lewis and Gordon will be about equal, on most sites. Both 55ish players.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm more and move convinced that Royce Lewis was truly #1 on their board in terms of talent alone... 

 

I tend to agree.  I'd also bet Enlow was in their top 15... just something to think about.  

[Seth Stohs]

 

I tend to agree.  I'd also bet Enlow was in their top 15... just something to think about.  

 

And it's most likely they had a deal with him before the draft started, not just on Day 2...

[twinsfanstreif]

You'd gotta think that Enlow immediately cracks the Twins top 10 prospects.  A 1-5 group of Lewis, Gordon, Romero, Gonsalves, Kiriloff (not necessarily in that order) followed by 6-10 of Enlow, Jay, Díaz, Mejía, and your favorite of of Stewart/Blankenhorn/Wade (again not in that order) really improves this top 10.  

 

I'd also think Rooker would fit in the 10-15 range (something like Palka's floor, more ceiling).  De La Torre, Bechtold, and Barnes are probably in the 20-35 range, too. 

 

That sounds like a good strategy to me!

 

Lewis will be top two and I actually think Enlow and Rooker both end up top 10 on most boards

[twinsfanstreif]

I can't put an injured RP that high. No way Jay is in the top 10 for me anymore. Sigh, bummer.

 

I think Lewis and Gordon will be about equal, on most sites. Both 55ish players.

 

A point was brought up on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast for Lewis over Gordon that is pretty valid, if Lewis plays like Gordon is in a few years we will all be really disappointed. I would probably give Lewis the nod over Gordon just because we all expect him to be a better player when it's all said and done

[Mike Sixel]

 

A point was brought up on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast for Lewis over Gordon that is pretty valid, if Lewis plays like Gordon is in a few years we will all be really disappointed. I would probably give Lewis the nod over Gordon just because we all expect him to be a better player when it's all said and done

 

by "we all", you don't mean "we", btw. I don't have any such expectation right now, as he has yet to play one minor league game. I expect Gordon to be a slightly above average SS for 8 or more years. If Lewis is an above average SS or CF for 8+ years, I won't be disappointed in Lewis (though I may be disappointed they didn't draft someone else).

Edited June 15, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[nicksaviking]

 

by "we all", you don't mean "we", btw. I don't have any such expectation right now, as he has yet to play one minor league game. I expect Gordon to be a slightly above average SS for 8 or more years. If Lewis is an above average SS or CF for 8+ years, I won't be disappointed in Lewis (though I may be disappointed they didn't draft someone else).

 

I agree that "we all" doesn't include me.

 

It has nothing to do with my expectations for Lewis though, and everything to do with the fact that Nick Gordon is tearing it up and might be the best position player in AA right now. If that's what Lewis is in a few years, that seems pretty awesome to me.

 

Nick Gordon might really surprise us with how high he finds himself on mid-season prospect rankings. He's hitting better than J.P. Crawford and Gleyber Torres ever have and he should be about two minutes away from joining them at the AAA level.

 

And personally, I had never thought too highly of Gordon, even when drafted. He's starting to look like a find now

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree that "we all" doesn't include me.

 

It has nothing to do with my expectations for Lewis though, and everything to do with the fact that Nick Gordon is tearing it up and might be the best position player in AA right now. If that's what Lewis is in a few years, that seems pretty awesome to me.

 

Agreed, i should have been more clear, I really, really, really like Gordon right now. It's why I would be unhappy with a trade of him for some mediocre pitcher under control for 1.5 years or so....

[twinsfanstreif]

by "we all", you don't mean "we", btw. I don't have any such expectation right now, as he has yet to play one minor league game. I expect Gordon to be a slightly above average SS for 8 or more years. If Lewis is an above average SS or CF for 8+ years, I won't be disappointed in Lewis (though I may be disappointed they didn't draft someone else).

Fair point, I guess I expect his bat to be better than Gordon's and his power profile is more than Gordon's ever will be. But if he's an above average SS for 8+ years than yes, it will be a success. My disappointment will hinge on exactly how well the other top guys perform (Greene, Gore, McKay, and Wright because they were the only other guys considered). If they all fizzle out or are marginal than it will be really hard to be disappointed. For sure we will all be following those 4 as well as Carlson for years to come and their development as opposed to our pick's will determine a lot of the success (or percieved success) of this draft

[Dman]

 

I agree that "we all" doesn't include me.

 

It has nothing to do with my expectations for Lewis though, and everything to do with the fact that Nick Gordon is tearing it up and might be the best position player in AA right now. If that's what Lewis is in a few years, that seems pretty awesome to me.

 

Nick Gordon might really surprise us with how high he finds himself on mid-season prospect rankings. He's hitting better than J.P. Crawford and Gleyber Torres ever have and he should be about two minutes away from joining them at the AAA level.

 

And personally, I had never thought too highly of Gordon, even when drafted. He's starting to look like a find now

 

Yeah what Gordon is doing at his age in AA is very impressive.  His power seems to be coming on as well.  I think the Scouts might have to rethink this one.  I think he is going to exceed initial projections.  Time will tell.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A point was brought up on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast for Lewis over Gordon that is pretty valid, if Lewis plays like Gordon is in a few years we will all be really disappointed. I would probably give Lewis the nod over Gordon just because we all expect him to be a better player when it's all said and done

We'd be disappointed if he played like 2016 Gordon, sure.

 

2017 Gordon? I'd be thrilled with that. Nick's OPS is over .850 as a 21 year old in AA. What more can you expect than that? If Gordon continues rolling all season, he'll be a top 30 prospect in baseball.

[gunnarthor]

 

Go back and look at the twins drafts for the past decade. Even in the years where we had several early picks we still didn't draft a ton of overall talent, it was usually one or two guys with a bunch of "safe" guys or relievers sprinkled in (i.e. Eades, Boer, Berdi, Cederoth, Bard, Bashore, Cody, etc). This year we have 6 guys who made at least one publication's top 100 list (Lewis, Rooker, Leach, Enlow, Bechtold, and De La Torres) and one who was dang close in Barnes. I can't remember the last year we brought in that much talent with upside

Actually, Barnes made the fangraphs guys list at #96.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx

[D.C Twins]

 

We have 2 ultra reliable starters. Foolish to spent 100-150M on an ace. Time to start thinking about signing Sano, Buxton, etc. to long term contracts. 

 I agree that big free agent pitching is not the way to go per se....but thou must obtain good pitching somewhere and help is a long way off in this draft.... I assume you are counting Berrios as #2..... I hope and think this to be correct but would like to see a full half season of consistent play first

[D.C Twins]

 

I can't put an injured RP that high. No way Jay is in the top 10 for me anymore. Sigh, bummer.

 

I think Lewis and Gordon will be about equal, on most sites. Both 55ish players.

This x10.....no way is Jay top 10 in the bullpen (and injured)

[twinsfanstreif]

We'd be disappointed if he played like 2016 Gordon, sure.

 

2017 Gordon? I'd be thrilled with that. Nick's OPS is over .850 as a 21 year old in AA. What more can you expect than that? If Gordon continues rolling all season, he'll be a top 30 prospect in baseball.

Well that's pretty darn good for sure but I think being the #1 pick we want Lewis to be a Correa/Lindor/Machado type. While a different player than those guys all 3 were in the majors at 21 and posted similar lines or better at a younger age in AA and a guy like Brenden Rodgers is mashing as a 20 year old in A+ ball. Maybe I'm expecting too much but at least his profile and bat right now is rated higher than Gordon's was when he was drafted, at the time of his drafting Gordon's future Hit/Power grades were around 55/40-50, and from most of the reports I've read on Lewis it seems to be more like 60/50-55

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well that's pretty darn good for sure but I think being the #1 pick we want Lewis to be a Correa/Lindor/Machado type.

While that'd be great, it's an unreasonable expectation from any draft pick, particularly one in a draft where no clear 1-1 pick was available.

 

If you can get an above average MLB starter from any pick, you did okay for yourself.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

We'd be disappointed if he played like 2016 Gordon, sure.

2017 Gordon? I'd be thrilled with that. Nick's OPS is over .850 as a 21 year old in AA. What more can you expect than that? If Gordon continues rolling all season, he'll be a top 30 prospect in baseball.

 

Have we forgotten just how good 2016 Gordon was through August of last year?  He tailed off at the end of the season but maintained an OPS over .800  for most of it... in a league tough on hitters.  I think we tend to look a bit too closely at his season stats and not recognize that he was really good for all but the last month or so of the year.  To me, that's a kid wearing down, not necessarily a demerit on his performance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Have we forgotten just how good 2016 Gordon was through August of last year?  He tailed off at the end of the season but maintained an OPS over .800  for most of it... in a league tough on hitters.  I think we tend to look a bit too closely at his season stats and not recognize that he was really good for all but the last month or so of the year.  To me, that's a kid wearing down, not necessarily a demerit on his performance.

True. He was also playing in the FSL, a notorious pitching league.

 

Change "2016 Gordon" to "2015 Gordon" and the point makes more sense.

[nicksaviking]

 

Well that's pretty darn good for sure but I think being the #1 pick we want Lewis to be a Correa/Lindor/Machado type. While a different player than those guys all 3 were in the majors at 21 and posted similar lines or better at a younger age in AA and a guy like Brenden Rodgers is mashing as a 20 year old in A+ ball. Maybe I'm expecting too much but at least his profile and bat right now is rated higher than Gordon's was when he was drafted, at the time of his drafting Gordon's future Hit/Power grades were around 55/40-50, and from most of the reports I've read on Lewis it seems to be more like 60/50-55

 

Gordon is hitting better in AA than Machado or Lindor did and by a wide margin. He's hitting better than those two did at any level in fact. He might also be looking at a call up right now if the team wasn't getting competent SS play from three capable players in Escobar, Polanco and Adrianza.

 

I'm not saying Gordon or Lewis will be in their tier of shortstop, but it's far from a foregone conclusion that they won't.

 

Also, of those guys, only Correa was a #1 pick. The odds of any #1 pick actually turning into an All-Star let alone a Super Star are low and always are.

[Steve Lein]

 

Have we forgotten just how good 2016 Gordon was through August of last year?  He tailed off at the end of the season but maintained an OPS over .800  for most of it... in a league tough on hitters.  I think we tend to look a bit too closely at his season stats and not recognize that he was really good for all but the last month or so of the year.  To me, that's a kid wearing down, not necessarily a demerit on his performance.

 

Then he went and tore up the Arizona Fall League, too...

[bird]

 

Fair point, I guess I expect his bat to be better than Gordon's and his power profile is more than Gordon's ever will be. But if he's an above average SS for 8+ years than yes, it will be a success. My disappointment will hinge on exactly how well the other top guys perform (Greene, Gore, McKay, and Wright because they were the only other guys considered). If they all fizzle out or are marginal than it will be really hard to be disappointed. For sure we will all be following those 4 as well as Carlson for years to come and their development as opposed to our pick's will determine a lot of the success (or percieved success) of this draft

 

 

I hope people remember that, regardless of who your own #1 was, the chances are excellent that 1 or 2 of the 4 guys you passed up will eventually be regarded as better players than your guy. But that doesn't make you a bad judge. Just a bad person.

[Steve Lein]

 

This x10.....no way is Jay top 10 in the bullpen (and injured)

 

That's fair and I understand the thought process with it. It just doesn't take it that far for me (yet) and I don't think he'll be disappearing from many other lists yet, either.

[markos]

 

Have we forgotten just how good 2016 Gordon was through August of last year?  He tailed off at the end of the season but maintained an OPS over .800  for most of it... in a league tough on hitters.  I think we tend to look a bit too closely at his season stats and not recognize that he was really good for all but the last month or so of the year.  To me, that's a kid wearing down, not necessarily a demerit on his performance.

That's technically not true. He had an OPS over .800 in April, but by the end of May it was at .756 and hovered around .750 until the end of July. Also, Gordon's overall stat line is a little bit of a mirage right now. He has a .397 BABIP and a 22% strikeout rate. That was even more extreme in the AFL, where he had a .488 BABIP and a 25% K%.

 

But don't get me wrong, I'm still a big Gordon fan. I was arguing a couple days ago that I thought Gordon, if he had gone to college and was did what he is doing now, would have been the #1 overall pick this year. And I think he is the no-doubt #1 prospect in the Twins system. And that he is probably a top-30 prospect in all of baseball. I'm a fan. I just don't want optimism to outpace reality.

[Oxtung]

That's technically not true. He had an OPS over .800 in April, but by the end of May it was at .756 and hovered around .750 until the end of July. Also, Gordon's overall stat line is a little bit of a mirage right now. He has a .397 BABIP and a 22% strikeout rate. That was even more extreme in the AFL, where he had a .488 BABIP and a 25% K%.

 

But don't get me wrong, I'm still a big Gordon fan. I was arguing a couple days ago that I thought Gordon, if he had gone to college and was did what he is doing now, would have been the #1 overall pick this year. And I think he is the no-doubt #1 prospect in the Twins system. And that he is probably a top-30 prospect in all of baseball. I'm a fan. I just don't want optimism to outpace reality.

You beat me to it markos. His stats right now are much higher than they will be in MLB as you stated because of his BABIP and k-rate but also his slugging is somewhat inflated by his 6 triples. As a 50 runner he won't be legging out many triples due to his speed and the fielding is good enough that he won't be gifted many due to the defense either. I'd have to do the math but I'd be surprised if he was a >.800 OPS player once his BABIP and triples normalize. That is still a good player but I just want our expectations to be reasonable.

[FargoFanMan]

The one thing I like about this draft is there seemed to be a plan. Not just based on scouting or analytics but the combination. Twins drafts have always seemed to be behind the times and purely based on scouting. That's fine but the analytics will find you guys that have the upside you're looking for I think. Love Enlow. His stuff is electric and he has lots of room to grow. Very good pick.