Article: McKay Says No Way

[Homer Hanky]

I think this is much ado about nothing as the Twins got a great player either way.

Totally agree... just wondering how this effects Gordon?

[Deduno Abides]

And there's something really wrong with Buxton that virtually no one identified for years. The guy was the consensus #1 prospect in baseball and absolutely annihilated every level of competition.

 

Buxton was a great pick that has unraveled for reasons unknown. Any prospect who is universally adored by scouts and analysts every moment until he hits an MLB field has to be considered a good pick.

 

Well, he wasn't consensus #1 for at least one team. . .

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well, he wasn't consensus #1 for at least one team. . .

I'm talking about his prospect ranking, not his draft ranking. Buxton was the cream of the crop as he progressed through the minors with almost every analyst taking him as the #1 overall prospect.

[TRex]

 

Well, he wasn't consensus #1 for at least one team. . .

Do we really know that, though? It really looks like Houston made a concerted effort to save money by signing Correa #1. They may have had Buxton as the #1 prospect and not made him the #1 pick.

[MangLitch]

 

How high is Lewis' ceiling if his arm is weak? Buxton still cannot hit major league pitching. Lewis might be worse than Buxton. I really don't feel good about this pick. This team needs pitching, pitching and more pitching. It seems like this team got blown out in almost half of the losses this season.

 

Really. He is hitting at a ~.250 clip in the last 28 days last time I looked (Yesterday)... I would say that shows some competence. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I mean, maybe... but I counter with "the Rays".

 

If I was a pick, that's one of the last teams I'd want to fall to in a draft (though Cincy would probably be the bottom). The Twins aren't much higher on that list but they are higher.

Why? They have been a pretty good organization for a while now. I doubt David Price regrets being drafted by them. They develop well, promote timely...

[Cody Christie]

 

Totally agree... just wondering how this effects Gordon?

Gordon could be in the big leagues as soon as the end of this year. There are still questions about his ability to stick at shortstop which is why he has been spending some time at second. Lewis is going to take time to develop. Ideally, they both can stick at short and develop some power. If the Twins have to make a decision at some point, they will move one of them off of the position. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why? They have been a pretty good organization for a while now. I doubt David Price regrets being drafted by them. They develop well, promote timely...

Friedman, that's why. I don't think the Rays organization is what it once was and their stadium/market only hurts them more. I don't think their front office and scouting is bad, just not terribly impressive... and they're easily the worst MLB market in baseball. Overall, that makes for a team that I wouldn't want to be drafted into.

 

Whereas the Reds are a questionable front office and their market sucks. That's why I'd put them at the bottom of the list.

[MN_ExPat]

 

I know it's easy to get down on Buxton. He was coming from rural Georgia where he faced very little competition. Lewis played in California and has faced very good competition throughout his prep career. 

Easy on the "rural" players with "little competition".   I live in the south Georgia/North Florida area and there are some really good players down here 

 

Trust me, my son plays with/against some of them.

 

[Cody Christie]

 

Friedman, that's why. I don't think the Rays organization is what it once was and their stadium/market only hurts them more. I don't think their front office and scouting is bad, just not terribly impressive... and they're easily the worst MLB market in baseball. Overall, that makes for a team that I wouldn't want to be drafted into.

 

Whereas the Reds are a questionable front office and their market sucks. That's why I'd put them at the bottom of the list.

 

This seems like a fun list to make. What are the least desirable MLB teams to play for?

[ashbury]

 

And while I know some people love the idea of a two-way player, I simply don't know if that's possible in the modern game. There is so much specialization and the competition level is so high that I think you may end up with a guy who's mediocre at everything where he could be truly special at one or the other.

Chris Gimenez says hello! He might as well be considered part of the bullpen now with how many times he's pitched. 

You might have missed this part.

[clone52]

 

I think McKay wanted to cry because he lost his gamble.

 

How do we know that Tampa won't give him an offer above slot?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This seems like a fun list to make. What are the least desirable MLB teams to play for?

Padres, A's, Cincinnati, Tampa. That's the top of my list. Teams that struggle with bad fan support, a middling market, and little immediate hope for the future.

 

After that, it becomes a mix of Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Kansas City. Maybe Toronto because of the exchange rate knee-capping their potential market and their dome stadium.

 

Honorary mentions to Arizona and Colorado for pretty obvious reasons, though their markets are solid.

[Cody Christie]

 

How do we know that Tampa won't give him an offer above slot?

Could happen. They do have the third highest draft pool. Not sure how often a team goes over slot on a top-5 pick with the new system. They are usually trying to save money for picks in later rounds.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Friedman, that's why. I don't think the Rays organization is what it once was and their stadium/market only hurts them more. I don't think their front office and scouting is bad, just not terribly impressive... and they're easily the worst MLB market in baseball. Overall, that makes for a team that I wouldn't want to be drafted into.

 

Whereas the Reds are a questionable front office and their market sucks. That's why I'd put them at the bottom of the list.

I don't think stadium/market matters to draftees, especially now with slots and hard caps. And I don't know that the post-Friedman front office rep is bad for Tampa. Silverman, Neander, and Bloom all served right under Friedman.

 

Obviously different for MLB free agents.

Edited June 13, 2017 by spycake

[Taildragger8791]

 

And there's something really wrong with Buxton that virtually no one identified for years. The guy was the consensus #1 prospect in baseball and absolutely annihilated every level of competition.

 

Buxton was a great pick that has unraveled for reasons unknown. Any prospect who is universally adored by scouts and analysts every moment until he hits an MLB field has to be considered a good pick.

 

I don't think people generally criticize picking Buxton, because he clearly has immense talent. I think people criticize how the Twins have developed him since he still so frequently looks like he's completely lost and searching for clues at the plate. He stands out as a prime counterexample to the idea that was repeated a lot yesterday that the Twins excel at developing young, athletic position players.

 

We've had a lot of prospects who profile that way and several even had great MiLB success, but they often floundered for years trying to transition to MLB before finally clicking elsewhere or busting. So, naturally people are skeptical of another player of the same mold being chosen 1-1 and already being lauded as a surefire future All Star with comparisons to Jeter. Nobody even knows what position this kid can play yet, or if he'll develop any power, or even be able to hit with his "non-traditional plate approach".

 

I'm giving the new front office the benefit of the doubt since the kid obviously has a lot of tools and physical attributes. Hopefully the rest of the draft will reveal their strategy and validate their approach to the first few picks. I'm willing to be patient before I blast the selections, but they definitely stuck their neck out in their first year. Hopefully it doesn't result in it getting lopped off in 3 years.

[Cody Christie]

Not that it matters but the Rays have announced they will let McKay play first base and pitch to start his professional career. 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/rays-go-bogo-brendan-mckay/#hYCXZgBhOJz7egTR.97

 

I wonder if the Twins weren't going to be as flexible on him continuing as a two-way player. 

[twinsfanstreif]

How high is Lewis' ceiling if his arm is weak? Buxton still cannot hit major league pitching. Lewis might be worse than Buxton. I really don't feel good about this pick. This team needs pitching, pitching and more pitching. It seems like this team got blown out in almost half of the losses this season.

 

The weak arm narrative on Lewis has become way overblown, nearly every scouting report I've read says his arm is adequate. Maybe not a plus tool but adequate enough to stay at short long term according to pretty much everything I've read on him

[Taildragger8791]

 

Really. He is hitting at a ~.250 clip in the last 28 days last time I looked (Yesterday)... I would say that shows some competence. 

 

And he's hitting .200 in the month of June with zero walks. Arbitrary sample sizes are fun.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's passing on buying Boardwalk so you can get Pacific and Marvin Gardens.

What if you pass on those too? Are we building hotels on Baltic and Mediterranean?

[ThejacKmp]

 

How high is Lewis' ceiling if his arm is weak? Buxton still cannot hit major league pitching. Lewis might be worse than Buxton. I really don't feel good about this pick. This team needs pitching, pitching and more pitching. It seems like this team got blown out in almost half of the losses this season.

 

Lewis might be better than Buxton. He might be the next Mike Trout. He might cure cancer. See, I can do it too!

 

Not a single player the Twins took this year would have any effect on the team this year. It is very unlikely that a player the Twins took this year would have an effect on the MLB team next year. This isn't basketball or football.

 

The Twins pitching for the next 2 years will either be fine because two of Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe and Jorge are ready for MLB or it won't. This draft is about 3-6 years from now, not today.

 

Finally, you take the best player available. Not drafting a QB in the first because you have Cam Newton is smart in football. Not drafting a SS because you already have a SS is dumb in baseball. Who knows where you will be in 3-5 years? Who knows if there'll be a trade you can fit a prospect into? Take the players you think are the best and worry about the rest later. If Lewis is a CF who plays LF because of Buxton that will be just fine.

[Darius]

What are they thinking? Isn't this guy like a consistent #3 upside type of guy as a pitcher? That's what they wanted at #1?

 

So, instead of taking him as a big-time power hitter whose close to the majors, with a high floor and ceiling, they take a hopefully projection who's 6 year out?

 

What in the....

[ThejacKmp]

 

What if you pass on those too? Are we building hotels on Baltic and Mediterranean?

 

Hey, I love building Hotels on Baltic and Mediterranean. Nothing more deflating than passing go, getting your $200 and then giving me $450 because you landed on my hotel that cost me only $250.

 

I think people are freaking out about "We didn't get Greene, Lewis sucks. Pohldad is cheap" halfway through. I'm surprised you don't feel similarly actually, you're usually pretty cognizant of the bigger picture. The Twins haven't picked Day 2, we haven't seen what they plan to do with the considerable savings they have from Lewis and Rooker.

 

P.S. Also, I'm not saying that they may not have outsmarted themselves. Just that to call them cheap is to ignore that the MLB draft (like Monopoly) is a game with rules and fixed amounts of money and thus is subject to game theory. Sometimes you don't get Pacific and Marvin Gardens but that doesn't mean you were "cheap" when you passed on Park Place.

[gunnarthor]

 

And he's hitting .200 in the month of June with zero walks. Arbitrary sample sizes are fun.

He started 2-49 in his first 15 games. In his last 41 games, he's hitting .254/.331/.369 .700 OPS. His k-rate in that period has been 30% and his walk rate is about 10%.  He needs to walk more but he's been improving.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Like everyone, I wanted the Twins to take the guy named Strasburg. Oh, someone like him wasn't there this year. So in the real world, immediate pitching help doesn't come from the draft.

The last two games were examples of how badly the Twins need pitching, both starters and relievers. But that help will only come from one of three places, trades, free agents and pitchers in the high minors. So the answer to their problem wasn't McKay, Greene or Wright. But it may be guys named Jorge, Romero, Gonsalves and maybe Thorpe.

 

Other than MANY scouts and pundits said both McKay and Wright could be in the majors next year, I agree.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I mean, maybe... but I counter with "the Rays".

 

If I was a pick, that's one of the last teams I'd want to fall to in a draft (though Cincy would probably be the bottom). The Twins aren't much higher on that list but they are higher.

 

The Rays have been amazingly successful given their limited resources, in the hardest division in baseball. They'll pay him slot, he'll get to leave in FA in a few years to go where he wants. There are much worse places to end up, imo.

[jun]

 

Lewis might be better than Buxton. He might be the next Mike Trout. He might cure cancer. See, I can do it too!

 

Not a single player the Twins took this year would have any effect on the team this year. It is very unlikely that a player the Twins took this year would have an effect on the MLB team next year. This isn't basketball or football.

 

The Twins pitching for the next 2 years will either be fine because two of Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe and Jorge are ready for MLB or it won't. This draft is about 3-6 years from now, not today.

 

Finally, you take the best player available. Not drafting a QB in the first because you have Cam Newton is smart in football. Not drafting a SS because you already have a SS is dumb in baseball. Who knows where you will be in 3-5 years? Who knows if there'll be a trade you can fit a prospect into? Take the players you think are the best and worry about the rest later. If Lewis is a CF who plays LF because of Buxton that will be just fine.

I am not saying the current draft would have any impact this season. I just want to make it clear the Twins need pitching, pitching and more pitching. The reason why this team got blown out so many times this season is because of no quality pitching. I just don't want history repeats itself in the future. I would like them to draft as many good pitching arms as possible.

[Taildragger8791]

 

He started 2-49 in his first 15 games. In his last 41 games, he's hitting .254/.331/.369 .700 OPS. His k-rate in that period has been 30% and his walk rate is about 10%.  He needs to walk more but he's been improving.

 

And since the start of May it's more like a 32% k-rate, 6.25% BB-rate, slashing .243/.291/.379 (.670 OPS). In other words, he had a little bit of a lukewarm streak for a few weeks and depending on where you draw the line it'll drastically change the numbers. He's making some contact finally, but he's still struggling to draw walks or collect XBHs the last month and a half. I'll take the progress, but he's still pretty far from competent with the stick.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This isn't being cheap, this is saving money on the first pick so that you can use that money to get better players later. It's passing on buying Boardwalk so you can get Pacific and Marvin Gardens.

What if you pass on those too? Are we building hotels on Baltic and Mediterranean?

Both of you please stop monopolizing this thread.

[Cody Christie]

 

The weak arm narrative on Lewis has become way overblown, nearly every scouting report I've read says his arm is adequate. Maybe not a plus tool but adequate enough to stay at short long term according to pretty much everything I've read on him

There always seems to be questions about prep arms. He is a teenager and still has time to grow into his body over the next handful of years. When his "man muscles" arrive, he should be able to chuck it across the diamond. 

 

I've heard more questions about his footwork in the infield.