Article: Twins Daily’s Instant Draft Reaction: WTF?

[KirbyDome89]

 

has a team ever come forward and said we messed up? like the day after a draft? i don't know, it seems unlikely. 

I'm not expecting them to come out and say "Hey guys we really f***ed this up," but they'll need to provide some explanation for signing under slot and then reaching in the 2nd round. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

When does the new front office stop getting the benefit of the doubt?

When they build a team that isn't in first place?

[ALessKosherScott]

 

I think they should have the $ to get Enlow to sign. Lewis is around $1MIL under per Doogie. Rooker might save some $, Leach should be under-slot (if he's not I have a big mark against Falvey and Levine in their first draft). I'd bet they have around $3MIL to throw at him.

 

There may not be enough money in the entire pool to get a Louisiana kid who grew up wanting to play for LSU to sign.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Pretty sure the mods asked us yesterday to allow people to both praise and criticize the draft, since this is a site to talk about the Twins. And, these are threads to discuss the draft.

 

I'm not saying you shouldn't criticize it, I'm just pointing out that you aren't actually giving Falvey a chance to show results. If you think that's fair, by all means, continue to do so.

[Squirrel]

I'm not saying you shouldn't criticize it, I'm just pointing out that you aren't actually giving Falvey a chance to show results. If you think that's fair, by all means, continue to do so.

Stop it now. Keep the discussion to the draft and not what Mike thinks about it. You can disagree with him, but don't make it about him.

[drjim]

I looked again, that 2012 draft was really good. Would be awesome if they could repeat it.

 

An emerging up the middle stud (Buxton), a 2-3 starter (Berrios), their two competent setup men (Duffey, Rogers), and three relief prospects that may make it after recovering injuries - Melotakis, Bard, Chargois.

 

This should be the model for what they are trying to do this year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I looked again, that 2012 draft was really good. Would be awesome if they could repeat it.

 

An emerging up the middle stud (Buxton), a 2-3 starter (Berrios), their two competent setup men (Duffey, Rogers), and three relief prospects that may make it after recovering injuries - Melotakis, Bard, Chargois.

 

This should be the model for what they are trying to do this year.

 

Agreed. If they get that, I'll be thrilled.

 

I have my doubts right now, but it's certainly possible. I vastly preferred Wright or Gore Greene or even McKay there. They NEED pitching. There were two very good to great college guys sitting there, and two awesome HS guys. That's the route I would have taken.

Edited June 13, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Steve Lein]

 

Just curious... how big of reach was Noah Syndergaard at 38 in 2010?  

 

He was rated a lot higher than Leach... Had a LOT of helium in that draft and was considered one of the most projectable arms. Toronto picked him early enough to get him out of his college commitment.

[gunnarthor]

If they draft Burns to start off the third and get Enlow in the 11th round and sign him, this draft starts to look a little better.

[drjim]

 

Agreed. If they get that, I'll be thrilled.

 

I have my doubts right now, but it's certainly possible.

 

Why would you have doubts right now? Based on what?

[Steve Lein]

 

There may not be enough money in the entire pool to get a Louisiana kid who grew up wanting to play for LSU to sign.

 

That could be true. Have you read that's his preference anywhere? (I've been looking but haven't seen that, usually that is well known)

[Mike Sixel]

 

Why would you have doubts right now? Based on what?

 

Buxton was considered 1 or 2, Lewis was number 5 by pretty much everyone. Lewis doesn't have much of an arm, from what I read, Buxton had all 5 tools. I don't doubt he'll be a top prospect at all. But, it's not likely he'll be as great defensively as Buxton, so he'll have to hit like a real baseball player. That seems "probable" at this point, if that can be said of any HS player. 

 

I have my doubts about any pitcher being good, unless he's universally a top 20 talent. That's just the odds. Obviously, I don't scout these guys, so I can only go off what I read. What I read doesn't scream "no doubt" on this guy.

 

I have used the word skeptical over and over, not failure. I have also said "I have my doubts", not that I'm certain of anything. 

 

Overall, it's not what I would have done, nor does it seem to make sense to many here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

and three relief prospects that may make it after recovering injuries - Melotakis, Bard, Chargois.

But on the bullpen threads, you keep dismissing Bard (and Melo) as indistinguishable from Tepesch, Wilk, Rucinski, Wimmers, etc....

[John Bonnes]

Looking at this story... I was in a rush to post last night so I wish I added a paragraph just before the theories. It would have clarified that I'm not disappointed that the Twins didn't get Carlson. I don't have any strong feelings about him either way.

 

I'm disappointed that the Twins didn't get anyone "over slot". The $1M+ they saved on Lewis didn't go to anyone ranked in the top 40 of the draft. Both 35 and 37 are good enough picks, but both went (at best) about where you would expect them to go. So now the Twins are going into Day 2 with $1M+ extra dollars that is increasingly harder to spend and with 75 players off the board. 

 

Anyway, I just wanted to clarify: this isn't about Carlson, at least not for me. 

[MangLitch]

 

 

I could be seriously wrong here, but I work with a guy that is a life long Indians fan and he didn't seem surprised at all with these types of moves in the draft. 

 

Seems as if Falvine is under the model of grabbing the athletic hitters early and throwing darts at the board later for pitching. Seemed to build a decent club in Cleveland. 

 

He also pointed out that the Indians stockpiled SS prospects as well. This also explains quite a bit about the strategy here. These are high value objects for trades and they can also be moved to different parts of the field if their hit tool is that promising. 

 

I am not saying I am 100% sold, I am actually more skeptical than most, but I will give these guys the benefit of the doubt after talking to my colleague. Seems there is a track record here

Edited June 13, 2017 by MangLitch

[gunnarthor]

So, my assumption was that Lewis and McKay were being played off of each other for the savings and the Twins went with Lewis. But just a few minutes after we drafted Lewis, Jon Heyman - a mouthpiece for Boras - said the Twins won't be saving money on the pick since he's the best position player since Bryant. So maybe the answer is Boras is screwing the Twins.  "You told us you'd consider taking 6m!" "Yes, and now we're down considering it and we'll sign for 6.7m." 

 

I dunno. That at least makes sense. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Looking at this story... I was in a rush to post last night so I wish I added a paragraph just before the theories. It would have clarified that I'm not disappointed that the Twins didn't get Carlson. I don't have any strong feelings about him either way.

 

I'm disappointed that the Twins didn't get anyone "over slot". The $1M+ they saved on Lewis didn't go to anyone ranked in the top 40 of the draft. Both 35 and 37 are good enough picks, but both went (at best) about where you would expect them to go. So now the Twins are going into Day 2 with $1M+ extra dollars that is increasingly harder to spend and with 75 players off the board. 

 

Anyway, I just wanted to clarify: this isn't about Carlson, at least not for me. 

Yeah, my problem is that they didn't reach with the 35/37 picks, not that they didn't draft any single guy.

 

Because my knowledge of any single guy is so limited that I'm just making **** up as I go along.

[drjim]

 

Buxton was considered 1 or 2, Lewis was number 5 by pretty much everyone. Lewis doesn't have much of an arm, from what I read, Buxton had all 5 tools. I don't doubt he'll be a top prospect at all. But, it's not likely he'll be as great defensively as Buxton, so he'll have to hit like a real baseball player. That seems "probable" at this point, if that can be said of any HS player. 

 

I have my doubts about any pitcher being good, unless he's universally a top 20 talent. That's just the odds. Obviously, I don't scout these guys, so I can only go off what I read. What I read doesn't scream "no doubt" on this guy.

 

I have used the word skeptical over and over, not failure. I have also said "I have my doubts", not that I'm certain of anything. 

 

Overall, it's not what I would have done, nor does it seem to make sense to many here.

 

Berrios was ranked about 50 going into that draft. Obviously not 100, but in reality that is a small difference in probability. Some of the other relievers drafted were in the back of the top 100, but the two that actually popped weren't in top 100.

 

Do agree that it will come down mostly to Buxton vs Lewis. But Buxton, when drafted was almost all tools, lots of concern about how long it will take the bat to come around (which have been somewhat vindicated).

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think Boras publicly keeping the asking price high helps the Twins strategy (whatever it is). Don't want other teams (and draftees) to explicitly know the Twins have $X extra to play with.

[drjim]

 

But on the bullpen threads, you keep dismissing Bard (and Melo) as indistinguishable from Tepesch, Wilk, Rucinski, Wimmers, etc....

 

I never said Bard and Melo were the level of the interchangeable long men, just that cycling them in now would be little different from what they have. But perhaps worth the shot.

 

But either way, they are the 7th and 8th guys from the class that might contribute, which is pretty much desserts at that point.

[Vanimal46]

 

Looking at this story... I was in a rush to post last night so I wish I added a paragraph just before the theories. It would have clarified that I'm not disappointed that the Twins didn't get Carlson. I don't have any strong feelings about him either way.

 

I'm disappointed that the Twins didn't get anyone "over slot". The $1M+ they saved on Lewis didn't go to anyone ranked in the top 40 of the draft. Both 35 and 37 are good enough picks, but both went (at best) about where you would expect them to go. So now the Twins are going into Day 2 with $1M+ extra dollars that is increasingly harder to spend and with 75 players off the board. 

 

Anyway, I just wanted to clarify: this isn't about Carlson, at least not for me. 

 

Couldn't agree more. It was quite frustrating last night reading Radcliffe's quote right after the Lewis pick saying they're using the savings to "go big" at 35/37... And Jeremy Nygaard's source texting him "Boom. Just wait" after the Lewis pick too.

 

It leads me to believe that another team drafted the player they wanted, and made adjustments on the fly to change their strategy again. So here we are, with $1+ MM to spend on less-touted players the rest of the draft.  

[drjim]

Also, with Lewis, he doesn't have an elite arm, but it's not Revere, it's much more like Polanco. Might be able to play at SS, but probably in the long run not enough.

[Intramural Legend]

 

So, my assumption was that Lewis and McKay were being played off of each other for the savings and the Twins went with Lewis. But just a few minutes after we drafted Lewis, Jon Heyman - a mouthpiece for Boras - said the Twins won't be saving money on the pick since he's the best position player since Bryant. So maybe the answer is Boras is screwing the Twins.  "You told us you'd consider taking 6m!" "Yes, and now we're down considering it and we'll sign for 6.7m." 

 

I dunno. That at least makes sense. 

 

I just struggle to believe that Boras would do that.  While he is always looking out for his players, it would be a pretty big hit to him to essentially cause the Twins to never deal with him again as they wouldn't be able to trust anything he says. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

So it's the same guys who failed in the past with one approach and now take a different approach but are still the same guys so are automatically doomed to failure because they failed in the past with a different strategy under different leadership.

 

This is my problem with these arguments. New leadership comes to the organization, keeps some of the old staff on, use a different draft strategy, but they still have past failures hang over their head because they're "the same guys".

Disclaimer: I'm on board with the first couple picks but wasn't thrilled with the "Reach for Leach," (I think I'll copyright that) move. 

 

My issue with these arguments is the use of TR as some sort of Boogeyman. It was time was for him to go and I'm glad the Twins made a change, but he was far from the only issue in the organization. A large number of people who also contributed to the dismal drafting/developing/signing of players are still here. Does that mean they're destined to continue the streak of poor performance? No, but I can certainly understand why that is a concern. Ultimately the draft decisions ran through TR, but those same scouts and development staff who provided him with their own data/professional opinions are doing the same for Falvine. Their past failures are relevant. They shouldn't have to wear them as a dunce cap but they shouldn't be forgotten simply because the ear they're whispering into has changed.

 

The first day of the draft was disappointing. Not everybody may feel that way, but it's unfortunately the overwhelming feeling at this point.  Things can change with a couple high upside picks above slot in the 3rd and 4th round, and hopefully they do. 

[Mr. Patient]

The argument that we have too many shortstops in the system strikes me as inherently pretty silly. At this level, they're *all* shortstops. Miguel Sano was a shortstop. Jim Thome was a shortstop. The best player on every high school team in the world is a shortstop, unless he throws left-handed. You don't draft second basemen or first basemen (which is why I had no interest in McKay as a hitter). They're the guys who are not athletic enough to play the premium positions.

 

If Lewis sticks at short, fabulous. Who knows where Gordon or Polanco will be in five years? If not, well, there's plenty of room left on the defensive spectrum for a guy who can run and hit.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I just struggle to believe that Boras would do that.  While he is always looking out for his players, it would be a pretty big hit to him to essentially cause the Twins to never deal with him again as they wouldn't be able to trust anything he says. 

Never mind that he already has a sketchy reputation about free agency. Baseball is a small community. Boras could essentially blacklist himself with that kind of move. And if Boras is blacklisted, potential draftees stop signing with him.

 

That kind of move is a classic "counting pennies while the dollars fly by" situation. Boras doesn't have one client. He can't afford to piss off everybody in baseball with an underhanded move because it will cost him tens of millions, potentially hundreds of millions, down the road.

 

Boras isn't a stupid guy. He's not going to risk his future over $500,000 on a single player. I'm sure he's going to drive hard at the Twins and get the most money possible for his client but it's unlikely he's going to make a face and say "neener neener neener, I LIED, stupid Twins!" during negotiations.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Disclaimer: I'm on board with the first couple picks but wasn't thrilled with the "Reach for Leach," (I think I'll copyright that) move. 

 

My issue with these arguments is the use of TR as some sort of Boogeyman. It was time was for him to go and I'm glad the Twins made a change, but he was far from the only issue in the organization. A large number of people who also contributed to the dismal drafting/developing/signing of players are still here. Does that mean they're destined to continue the streak of poor performance? No, but I can certainly understand why that is a concern. Ultimately the draft decisions ran through TR, but those same scouts and development staff who provided him with their own data/professional opinions are doing the same for Falvine. Their past failures are relevant. They shouldn't have to wear them as a dunce cap but they shouldn't be forgotten simply because the ear they're whispering into has changed.

 

The first day of the draft was disappointing. Not everybody may feel that way, but it's unfortunately the overwhelming feeling at this point.  Things can change with a couple high upside picks above slot in the 3rd and 4th round, and hopefully they do. 

Well said. In no way am I saying that this front office deserves an entirely blank slate, but they do deserve a little leeway, particularly when they actually do something different than their failures of years past.

 

I'm skeptical of what happened yesterday. I preferred going with the big talent in Greene and letting it play out.

 

But the Twins didn't do that. It doesn't mean they're wrong, it doesn't mean they're right. But, at the very least, they deserve a little slack to see where all of this is going.

[TRex]

 

Never mind that he already has a sketchy reputation about free agency. Baseball is a small community. Boras could essentially blacklist himself with that kind of move. And if Boras is blacklisted, potential draftees stop signing with him.

 

That kind of move is a classic "counting pennies while the dollars fly by" situation. Boras doesn't have one client. He can't afford to piss off everybody in baseball with an underhanded move because it will cost him tens of millions, potentially hundreds of millions, down the road.

 

Boras isn't a stupid guy. He's not going to risk his future over $500,000 on a single player.

I think the other argument against this is that I read the the team picking 1/1 actually get to negotiate with their draft picks, meaning that something binding could be signed. All other draft positions only get to give 'approximates', which could allow an agent to 're-think' their position.

[mlhouse]

Analyzing.

 

From all reports, #1 seems to not be correct.  The Twins and Lewis had an agreement to sign for underslot before he was selected.

 

#2 could be correct.  However, as someone else noted above the draft seemed to play out mostly what was predicted.  

 

#3 I think is doubtful. My guess is that Carlson was just overrated.  

 

#4  While the Twins are cheap, cheap, cheap, the possible savings from squeezing your draft allocation isn't very significant.

 

#5  The problem with #5 is that as you go lower in the draft pool, adding your savings to their draft slots isn't enough.   Someone mentioned Blayne Enlow and him being a doubtful sign.  But, if you draft him at #35 and add the Lewis savings to that draft slot, $1,9 million, you can create a total bonus of $2.8-3.2 million based upon the reports of the slot savings from 1.1.   But, if we draft Enlow, or a similar player, at 3.1 that draft slot is only $755,000 meaning that the max bonus you can offer is $1.6-2,0 million.  

 

I get that going underslot can be seen as trading down from 1.1 to 1.5 to trade up from 1.35 to 1.15, but when you blow by #35 and #37 without looking at a top 15-20 player you are then making up the difference in the much later rounds with a much less impressive package to offer.  And that assumes that you a player drops that you want and that you can actually sign the player.  

 

For example, what if the player the want is Enlow and they make the $2 million bonus offer and he refuses and heads to LSU.  Then you lose the slot at 3.1 and the whatever you saved underslot at 1.1

 

In the end, although at first I thought the Twins management was just being too cute, I think they preferred McKay and Lewis to Greene and Wright, and Lewis was willing ot take what the Twins wanted to offer.  The money saving may or may not be used, and they will draft to their draft board.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

That could be true. Have you read that's his preference anywhere? (I've been looking but haven't seen that, usually that is well known)

 

BA hinted at it in his scouting report:

 

Enlow is the kind of pitcher who sometimes makes it to school, and if he does, blossoms into a potential front-of-the-rotation ace, but his obvious potential may lead a team to spend money now to avoid losing the chance to get him later. The Louisiana State signee is all arms and legs right now, but he has the frame to fill out and become much more physical as an adult. Enlow's velocity was down early this spring, as he would sit 88-90, touching 92. But by the end of his high school season he was again sitting in the low 90s and touching 94 with an easy delivery, loads of athleticism, a fast arm and a plus curveball. Enlow has excellent feel for spinning the ball and he has more advanced command and control of his fastball than most high school fireballers. He's toyed with a changeup that looks promising but is a distant third pitch for now. Enlow is a long-time Louisiana State fan who will be tough to sway from his Tigers commitment, but he's shown enough potential that teams will consider cutting him a very large check.