Article: Twins Daily’s Instant Draft Reaction: WTF?

[Canizaro's Ghost]

Long time reader, first time commenter. I think the Twins had to take Greene. For one, it generates a ton of fan interest and judging by the crowds lately they could use it. Second, no one faults the Twins for taking Greene if he flames out. The situation is similar to the Wolves and Derrick Williams. Yeah, he flopped but he was the obvious choice. No need to overthink it. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Let me borrow you my rose-colored glasses real quick ...

 

Yeah, I just think because Lewis isn't talked about as much as the other three, and because Carlson is the local pitcher that we all dreamed would wind up with the Twins, many are disappointed. I think the Twins made three pretty good picks yesterday, brought in three very talented players. Admittedly, I had never heard of Leach before last night, but that doesn't make it a bad pick. 

[mikelink45]

I posted in another spot my frustration with this pick - From Gordon to Javier there are six good SS in the system and all young.  So we saved some money under the slot - big deal - how much will we need to acquire an Ace pitcher in a few years?   Number two fills a need, number 3 is probably a number three starter.  This was our chance to really reach for a potential star (I know there are no guarantees) but we will now play with lower picks (hopefully forever) and I would have been much more excited to think we took the real opportunity to reach for the heights.  

[Seth Stohs]

 

As I said in an earlier post, it's also possible that the Twins were not impressed with Carlson.

 

I'd agree with this... They've had a lot of eyes watch him, and they had two chances to take him, so I would agree with this. And it's not that they weren't impressed as much as they believe the other guys have a bigger future.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Have the Twins said whether they expect Rooker to play corner OF or 1B?  I know he moves pretty well for a big guy, but can he play LF or RF in the majors? Can he play at a Grossman level or hopefully slightly better? 

 

 

They drafted him as an OF.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Long time reader, first time commenter. I think the Twins had to take Greene. For one, it generates a ton of fan interest and judging by the crowds lately they could use it. Second, no one faults the Twins for taking Greene if he flames out. The situation is similar to the Wolves and Derrick Williams. Yeah, he flopped but he was the obvious choice. No need to overthink it. 

While I would have preferred Greene as well, a draft pick has zero impact on attendance.

 

Any prospect that is highly touted and reaches MLB might nudge attendance upward but not a draft pick.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I have 2 questions for all you naysayers: 1) Do you plan on being a Twins fan in 5 years? 2) Do you think shortstop will still be one of the most, if not the most, valuable defensive positions in 5 years?

[The Wise One]

 

I just don't see who they were expecting to fall . . . The draft hewed closely to expectations overall.

What falls and you use the money on is a high school player to bypass college.  It could be a guy like a 5th round pick Nix a few years ago. It could be you find one of the high school players  like Springer was drafted by the Twins and make an all out effort to get them to sign

[The Wise One]

 

I have 2 questions for all you naysayers: 1) Do you plan on being a Twins fan in 5 years? 2) Do you think shortstop will still be one of the most, if not the most, valuable defensive positions in 5 years?

I stand on the side of amass all the talent you can. The counter to your ss question I would ask, isn't starting pitching the most important for the playoffs?

[markos]

 

I have 2 questions for all you naysayers: 1) Do you plan on being a Twins fan in 5 years? 2) Do you think shortstop will still be one of the most, if not the most, valuable defensive positions in 5 years?

Very few draft and prospect analysts have expressed confidence that Lewis will stay at shortstop. 

[twinsfanstreif]

What if the Mariners are the ones who don't know what they're doing? Carlson may have been asking for around $4 million (something we might not be able to afford) and they may have tried to call his bluff and hope he signs. It's not something major league teams typically do but it happened last year at pick 41, you never know

[Blackjack]

 

I posted in another spot my frustration with this pick - From Gordon to Javier there are six good SS in the system and all young.   

Numerous posters have said that the excess can be traded later but will a shortstop prospect bring back a decent starting pitcher??

 

Probably not. Pitching wins ball games, the Twins need pitching. With good pitching and poor hitting you can still win games 2-1. With bad pitching you see games like last nights 14-3 blowout.

[twinsfanstreif]

Very few draft and prospect analysts have expressed confidence that Lewis will stay at shortstop.

 

Nearly every scouting report I read says the opposite, I don't know where you're getting your info from but every write up on him states something like "most scouts believe he can stick at short"

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I stand on the side of amass all the talent you can. The counter to your ss question I would ask, isn't starting pitching the most important for the playoffs?

It's also the riskiest pick, by far. Sure, you might get a frontline starter but what's more likely is you get a #3 starter or a reliever or a guy that barely skates into MLB at all due to injury.

 

There's a reason the Cubs deprioritized starting pitching prospects in recent years. I'm still not sold it's the right decision but there's merit to the idea. Since Epstein took over, the Cubs have drafted zero pitchers in the first round and a pitcher about half the time in the second round. Then they pile up arms further down the draft board.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

I can't believe all the negativity about last night. There was no Bryce Harper this year. Basically every player came with risk. Trashing the Twins for their picks without seeing any of the three play pro ball in addition to seeing the others the Twins "passed on" play is ludicrous.

 

Everything I read about him makes me like Lewis. Finding elite up the middle talent is always tough. Like with any other HS pick, all there's to do at this point is hope for the best for him.

 

I may be wrong, but I don't remember everyone being upset when the Twins took Gordon, another top HS shortstop (probably with a lower ceiling than Lewis). He's turned out all right.

 

As for the Carlson pick, I agree with all the posters above that I don't give a darn about the Twins not picking a local guy. Really? We want the team to change their plan to accommodate picking a "feel good" story. What a lousy way to run a baseball team.

[Rcrose29]

I don't have specific examples off the top of my head, but my gut says that given the success that both Texas and Cleveland have had with drafting and developing pitching talent over the years, and how horrible the Twins have been, I'm willing to take a wait and see approach on Leach rather than immediately pan the pick. Would be interesting to see how much those other two organizations deviated from the "consensus" rankings when making their pitching selections.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Nearly every scouting report I read says the opposite, I don't know where you're getting your info from but every write up on him states something like "most scouts believe he can stick at short"

And isn't his backup position supposed to be CF? Sure, there's a dropoff in value between SS and CF but it's not enormous.

[Rcrose29]

Also, the article that the Oakland A's SB Nation site did on Brent Rooker was a plea for the A's to select him 6th overall, and we got him at 35. It's a great article, and it shows the guy eats, sleeps, and breathes hitting. I bet he debuts on the big league team before the end of next season.

[Blake]

Restocking with talent because talent is going to have to be traded this year to bolster pitching.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

The only conclusion I can take from last night is the Twins did not supplement the Sano, Kepler, Berrios, Buxton core with an elite pitcher.

 

I think Twins fans will be more than justified, then, to expect Falvey and company to pursue a big-league ACE pitcher either this year or next year via free agency or trade to push the young core toward a championship. With Mauer's contract coming off the books after next year, money should not be an issue.

 

Waiting and hoping for Gonsalves or Romero or Berrios to be a legit #1 won't cut it. If the FO wants to try to win a championship with the young core in Minnesota, it's time they find a true #1 starting pitcher already in the majors because they passed on the chance last night.

[Blake]

 

It's also the riskiest pick, by far. Sure, you might get a frontline starter but what's more likely is you get a #3 starter or a reliever or a guy that barely skates into MLB at all due to injury.

 

There's a reason the Cubs deprioritized starting pitching prospects in recent years. I'm still not sold it's the right decision but there's merit to the idea. Since Epstein took over, the Cubs have drafted zero pitchers in the first round and a pitcher about half the time in the second round. Then they pile up arms further down the draft board.

Interesting, thanks for the information.

[Vanimal46]

 

I think number two is the most likely scenario. Whoops.

 

I agree... That's what happens when the other 26-27 teams didn't get the memo that the Twins have a plan. 

[markos]

 

Nearly every scouting report I read says the opposite, I don't know where you're getting your info from but every write up on him states something like "most scouts believe he can stick at short"

Your mileage may vary, but I take "most scouts believe he can stick at short" to be damning faint praise for a prospect. If a kid doesn't get a firm, no-doubt endorsement that he can play SS in the big leagues, I don't have a lot of confidence. The path the majors is littered with prospects who "might stick at short".

Eric Longenhagen: "Scouts are split on where that's going to be with most predicting Lewis will move off of his current shortstop and into center field."

Keith Law: "he's a shortstop who is almost universally assumed to be moving off the position, with most people -- myself included -- assuming he's headed for center field."

Baseball America: "Lewis said all of his role models have played shortstop and hopes to stay there, but there are scouts who see center field as his best future position."
"He has the quick feet and plus arm strength required to play shortstop, though scouts aren’t certain that he’ll make the necessary adjustments as he continues to fill out and the speed of the game advances."

John Sickels: "Optimists believe he can remain at shortstop due to his instincts, while pessimists think his arm will work better at second base. Everyone agrees he should show the range to handle center, but opinions vary on if his arm would be sufficient for right field if he slows down too much to handle center when he gets older."

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Interesting, thanks for the information.

 I double checked this to be sure. I'm slightly off. The Cubs took a pitcher in the supplemental round a few years back, which is technically the first round.

 

And they seem to draft pitchers about 2/3rd the time in the second round. So, yeah, I was close, just a bit off in the details.

 

No pitchers in the "true" first round, though. And the Cubs picked high from 2011-2015, no lower than ninth overall and as high as second overall.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Your mileage may vary, but I take "most scouts believe he can stick at short" to be damning faint praise for a prospect. If a kid doesn't get a firm, no-doubt endorsement that he can play SS in the big leagues, I don't have a lot of confidence. The path the majors is littered with prospects who "might stick at short".

I don't know if that's true at all. I heard several scouts say Gordon "might stick at short". Some were higher on him than that.

 

Today, it's pretty apparent he will stick at short. It's hard to predict where an 18 year old kid will be as a 24 year old because if he's 6'4", 220 lbs, it's going to be damned hard to "stick at short".

[Vanimal46]

 

has a team ever come forward and said we messed up? like the day after a draft? i don't know, it seems unlikely. 

 

Yeah we can file this under the "Never going to happen" category. Especially when it's their first draft for the team. We'll hear the same cliches "the draft fell exactly how we wanted" -- "couldn't pass up a stud OF at 35" etc. etc. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Nearly every scouting report I read says the opposite, I don't know where you're getting your info from but every write up on him states something like "most scouts believe he can stick at short"

 

Keith Law posted this earlier this morning: 

 

"Royce Lewis was a slight surprise as the first overall pick, especially because, like the Upton brothers were in their own draft years, he's a shortstop who is almost universally assumed to be moving off the position, with most people -- myself included -- assuming he's headed for center field. (Melvin Upton was the No. 2 overall pick in 2002; Justin was the No. 1 overall pick in 2005.) Lewis is a plus runner with quick hands and a rotational swing that should eventually produce power as he fills out physically. His footwork is not right for the infield, but in center his speed and instincts would be more important and should make him a plus defender."

[Tom Froemming]

 

Yeah, I just think because Lewis isn't talked about as much as the other three, and because Carlson is the local pitcher that we all dreamed would wind up with the Twins, many are disappointed. I think the Twins made three pretty good picks yesterday, brought in three very talented players. Admittedly, I had never heard of Leach before last night, but that doesn't make it a bad pick. 

Right, I think the big difference in how you view things right now comes down to whether you want to focus on who they got or whether you wanna focus on who they didn't.

 

I was strongly on Team Greene, but Lewis has crazy high upside, too. Sounds like a very complete, well-rounded player. I'm excited. If I look at Rooker's numbers too long I have to start fanning myself. Before anybody gets in an uproar about Leach, I'd encourage them to take a look at some of the video. Both his body and his mechanics look really good for a 17-year-old. There's a reason why Texas wanted him.

 

If people didn't like Day 1 of the draft, hey, I get it. But I think it's pretty silly to try and say with certainty today that the Twins have had a bad draft, or that whatever strategy you think they had didn't pay off. For all we know, things may have worked out exactly as they intended.

[markos]

 

As for the Carlson pick, I agree with all the posters above that I don't give a darn about the Twins not picking a local guy. Really? We want the team to change their plan to accommodate picking a "feel good" story. What a lousy way to run a baseball team.

Some of the people that are upset about not picking Carlson (myself included) are upset because the Twins passed (twice!) on a player that analysts universally had ranked as one of the top-20 players in this draft. It has nothing to do with where he was from, and everything to do with skipping over a very talented player.

[Comrade Bork]

 

Also, the article that the Oakland A's SB Nation site did on Brent Rooker was a plea for the A's to select him 6th overall, and we got him at 35. It's a great article, and it shows the guy eats, sleeps, and breathes hitting. I bet he debuts on the big league team before the end of next season.

yeah, that article was great.  It got me super stoked on this Rooker guy!