Article: Twins Daily’s Instant Draft Reaction: WTF?

[John Bonnes]

We set a record for page views yesterday, approaching 100,000. A lot of that was on our Day 1 Draft Day thread. And starting at about the 500th comment or so, the reaction could be summarized in three letters: W. T. F.

 

To the community’s credit, that was not the thought process immediately, when the Twins surprised everyone by picking prep shortstop Royce Lewis first overall. That’s because a good chunk of the wonks on this site understand there is a strategy that can accompany just such a pick, one which I explained in a series of tweets, starting with this one, yesterday afternoon. You can click through, but I’ll give the gist…Saving money on the first overall pick is a common strategy for MLB teams and has been used with much success. Drafting Lewis, who was considered along with Kyle Wright and Brendan McKay, to be a half step below Hunter Greene in terms of talent, could essentially give the Twins extra quality in some of their following picks. Again, click on the tweet for the details.

 

So Lewis was the surprise pick at #1, but we heard reports that he was the pick because he gave the Twins a discount which they could use to essentially accumulate higher picks later in the draft. That’s a solid strategy; additional quality picks helps both with risk mitigation and with higher upside. And it costs nothing but a little negotiation.

 

Plus, selfishly, it makes the rest of the night that much more fun. The Twins had two more picks last night, the 35th and 37th picks and lots of leftover money. Signing Lewis “below slot” gave them the opportunity to sign some higher ranked players who seemed to “tumble” down the draft board, not because there was anything wrong with them, but because they wanted more money than teams above the Twins in the draft (but below them in leftover money) could offer.

 

What’s more, the most obvious of those players was a high school pitcher from Burnsville. Sam Carlson was projected to be a mid-first round pick. He’s a pitcher. He’s a hometown boy. And the fact that he was available at pick 35 made it seem like the Twins and he had conspired to allow him to fall into the Twins lap.

 

Except that isn’t what happened.

 

The Twins picked a college outfielder, Brent Rooker at 35. They picked a prep (Canadian) pitcher, Landon Leach, at 37. Both are legitimate top 100 prospects, but neither was a top 20 or even perceived to be a top 30 pick. In fact, one could reasonably project that both of them could also sign “under slot.” Carlson ended up going 55th to the Mariners who don’t seem to have the money to sign him.

 

So WTF happened?

 

We won’t find out all the signing amounts for several days, but I’ll float some scenarios, and you can add your own in the comment below.

 

1. Lewis didn’t sign for less than slot. I think that it’s already been reported that he did, but these moves make a lot more sense if Lewis' agent, Scott Boras, didn’t let Lewis sign for less than slot, or something happened that the Twins weren’t sure they had that extra money.

 

2. The Twins got sniped before #35. Whoever the Twins targeted with the 35th pick, was taken before they got their pick. Which would mean that either the player’s agent was incompetent, or the Twins didn’t get word to the player to make sure teams knew they needed to pass, or another team called their bluff or figured out a way to get their own leftover money.

 

3. A Carlson deal fell through. But they why do the Mariners take him at #55? They have to know they can sign him if they're going to use their second round pick on him, right?

 

4. The Twins have no intention of using their whole $14M draft budget. They saved money to save money. This just seems crazy. It would be a complete betrayal.

 

5. They're going to use the money on Day 2. OK, but now the top picks are already done. (Late add: track the Day 2 moves on Twins Daily's Day 2 Thread!)

 

We are all left scratching our heads. Perhaps we'll get more information that clarifies what we witnessed. Or maybe this is the mess it appears to be.

 

Click here to view the article

[Seth Stohs]

Per Doogie, the Twins will save between $900K and $1.3M on Lewis...

 

 

 

[chpettit19]

Carlson is from Burnsville, not Eden Prairie. But otherwise solid article.

[shs_59]

Or simply put, the twins like Landon Leach's young fresh arm and Rookers senior polished bat a bit more than Sam Carlson and his 'unique' but hardly repeatable delivery Carrlson could be the next Alex Meyer or just as easily Daniel moskos.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Carlson is from Burnsville, not Eden Prairie. But otherwise solid article.

 

I edited that one right away... It's correct now.

[d-mac]

I think number two is the most likely scenario.

 

Whoops.

[chpettit19]

It's also possible Carlson has no intention of going pro straight out of high school and he made it clear to everyone he was going to school. The Mariners do a reverse of what the Twins possibly did and saved a small chunk of money by using the 55th pick on a guy they don't intend to sign so they can go above slot on an earlier pick (or later pick for that matter).

[Seth Stohs]

 

It's also possible Carlson has no intention of going pro straight out of high school and he made it clear to everyone he was going to school. The Mariners do a reverse of what the Twins possibly did and saved a small chunk of money by using the 55th pick on a guy they don't intend to sign so they can go above slot on an earlier pick (or later pick for that matter).

 

If the M's don't sign Carlson at that spot, they lose the ability to spend the allocated money at that pick.  That's why last year only two players drafted in the first ten rounds didn't sign. Teams don't want their top ten picks to not sign. 

[chpettit19]

 

If the M's don't sign Carlson at that spot, they lose the ability to spend the allocated money at that pick.  That's why last year only two players drafted in the first ten rounds didn't sign. Teams don't want their top ten picks to not sign. 

Ah, interesting. Learn something new every day. Thanks!

[Wedman13]

Terrible headline. Long time reader, dissapointed.... Lewis? Stud. Rooker? Love it.

[Tom Froemming]

Let me borrow you my rose-colored glasses real quick ...

[DocBauer]

I'm not saying the Twins blew tonight. I'm not saying Lewis and Rooker don't look like quality future players. I'm not saying 3 years from now we won't look back in wonder at how smart the new FO was.

 

But right now....something just doesn't look or smell right about this draft.

[Carneal&Gordon]

I am all in on Falvine and while, admittedly, I lean more Bonnes than Gleeman on the cynicism scale, I'm having some trouble with the 1st day approach.

[curt1965]

As I said in an earlier post, it's also possible that the Twins were not impressed with Carlson.

[Carneal&Gordon]

I think what rattles me the most (with no insight on their board) is the Radcliffe quote.

[KirbyDome89]

You have to think they were sniped. Saving the $$$ isn't necessarily a bad thing but waiting to use it until day 2 makes no sense. 

 

Lots of questions. It'll be interesting to see how many answers the Twins provide... 

[Yeahright]

 

You have to think they were sniped. Saving the $$$ isn't necessarily a bad thing but waiting to use it until day 2 makes no sense. 

 

Lots of questions. It'll be interesting to see how many answers the Twins provide... 

has a team ever come forward and said we messed up? like the day after a draft? i don't know, it seems unlikely. 

[rghrbek]

I could give 2 sh#$ about a local kid being drafted by us, and I am fine with us taking a shot at a star...truly I am fine with all that.

 

However, we just all know how barren our pitching is, and Sano etc all, need help next year or the year after, so how did this help us?  

 

Thats what my gut says.  I trust my gut.

[The Wise One]

 

I could give 2 sh#$ about a local kid being drafted by us, and I am fine with us taking a shot at a star...truly I am fine with all that.

 

However, we just all know how barren our pitching is, and Sano etc all, need help next year or the year after, so how did this help us?  

 

Thats what my gut says.  I trust my gut.

There was not a pitcher in the draft that was going to help out next two years team in the draft unless they were trade bait.

[HitInAPinch]

Random thoughts:

 

First, I'd never back-off a player who had Scott Boras as an agent.  We all know his MO.  If the drafted player develops quickly, be prepared to trade him quick and benefit before new contract negotiations begin.

 

3 HS players drafted in a row.  An indictment of college players? 

 

I think #2 is a real possibility.  Hey, if you're not willing to play the game, stay home. 

 

Did anyone really think drafting a high school pitcher would save the Twins starting rotation next year?

Or the following year, or even the year after that?

[Tommygun921]

I'm with saving money on the top pick to get players the fall into the 35th and 37th pick and pay overslot to get them to sign. Which is why I'm sure #2 is the case as it seems they could've possibly reached on their later picks. As well as they seem to already have 4+ long term options at shortstop in the system. Which is why not drafting a pitcher they could be farther along in development at #1 doesn't make sense. Which makes option #2 make even more sense. I'm sure Rooker and Leach could be solid players. But appears the player or players they had targeted must've gotten taken before their picks.

[The Wise One]

I think if you jump to conclusions based on the three picks it is not that the Twins have a problem. Judgments based of an incomplete picture is destructive. When the draft is over and players are signed, then whine away. Extra cash still can be spent in later rounds than round 2.  Any late round draft pick can be enticed to sign    There could be several drafted, all it takes is one.  As Thyrlos pointed out inadvertently with all of the late selections of Minnesota players, none of them panned out. What harm is there having a couple million in signing money to entice a high school player or two. One has to be patient and see what is drafted.

[nytwinsfan]

They had better use the money they saved on Lewis (per Doogie) and presumably Rooker to get one or two of the 30-50 ranked prep players left. For instance, if in the 3rd and 4th round they were to take some combination of RHP Enlow, RHP Burns, or LHP Heatherly, all of whom have some upside, I'd be happy. A couple other prep pitchers in that range as well and HS CF Garrett Mitchell (who apparently has some serious tools but also diabetes). 

 

Really hope the Twins do this, otherwise I too will be pretty disappointed.

[drivlikejehu]

I just don't see who they were expecting to fall . . . The draft hewed closely to expectations overall.

[Darius]

I imagine Falvey had a difficult time sleeping last night, after going all analysis-paralysis on last nights draft and formulating a plan that got obliterated.

 

But, hey, at least he knows how to calculate some fancy stats.

[Comrade Bork]

 

4. The Twins have no intention of using their whole $14M draft budget. They saved money to save money. This just seems crazy. It would be a complete betrayal.

 

 

Complete and utter.. I seriously hope it doesn't go that way.

[nytwinsfan]

Have the Twins said whether they expect Rooker to play corner OF or 1B?  I know he moves pretty well for a big guy, but can he play LF or RF in the majors? Can he play at a Grossman level or hopefully slightly better? 

[Old Twins Cap]

 

4. The Twins have no intention of using their whole $14M draft budget. They saved money to save money. This just seems crazy. It would be a complete betrayal. Complete and utter.. I seriously hope it doesn't go that way.

No, no way. 

 

The business of the Twins is baseball, and the Pohlads do not want or need more money.

 

When you are a billionaire, you concern yourself with running a good organization and avoiding mistakes.  You do not niggle or worry about draft budgets.

 

A million here or there is useless to these guys.  Having a good long-term business, with the right people running the show, that's what you worry about.

 

We got good people now at the top.  Let them lead.

 

[Twinsoholic]

Last year the Twins 3rd round pick was Jackson. This time the Twins could grab Heatherly (lefty) or Enlow. Both are top 30 rated. Either would be a great pick in round three.

 

Basically the Twins could right the WTF ship with some high upside high school players in rounds 3 - 8.

[rdehring]

Sure was an interesting day/night, wasn't it John?

 

I sincerely hope they were able to save $$$ on the Lewis pick. Don't know what happened after that, but I suspect someone was no longer on the board. But there are lots of rounds to use the money, even if it ends up approaching $2.0mm. And lets remember they will be drafting #1 on day 3, when they went way over $100,000 to take the pitcher needing TJ last year.

 

I do have a question. If you don't sign a pick in the 1st round, you get an equal pick the following year. When does that end, after the 1st round, COMP A round, round 2?

 

Thanks!