What's to Blame for the Rotation?

[bird]

thrylos, RA Dickey and Blackburn are very good examples of moves that didn't pan out. And for every example like that, we can find you an example that someone, if they wanted to, could use to make the opposite point you ALWAYS make, which is that everybody employed by the Twins is old, uses an abacus, and sucks at their job. It's great to be critical. It's perfectly fine to be pessimistic about this team.

 

This is not in the cards for you, thrylos, but being fairminded about criticism and praise, (even faint praise, jokin) is a form of honesty that most of us appreciate. Being intentionally unfair is a form of dishonesty. Are you being honest?

 

I guess that's possible, thrylos, who recently informed all of us that the situation is so sad that "the glass is not half empty or half full. The glass is shuttered on the floor in a million pieces." Wow. Have a nice day.

 

Marquis? Yes, I'm telling you I believe the "coach is clean". You see, for every example you or jokin or others want to cite as evidence of incompetence, we can cite an example to show demonstrate their prowess. For every poor trade, jokin, like everyone's favorite, Santana, there is a good trade, like Pavano. For every "bad release" like Breslow, there is a Burton.

 

Try to be balanced and fair. It will help your credibility.

[jokin]

Driving through upstate New York today, I listened to a local sports channel on the radio. Guess what they were griping about? The Yankees starting pitching. All the injuries to pitchers (and they were blaming a poor medical staff too). How half their rotation are #5 starters at best (would you believe that one has a record barely over .500?) The more things change...

 

Everything is relative, but some things are more relative than others

 

Funny stuff from the spoiled Yankees fans. I think the Twins fans complaints are slightly more justified. I'd take any of their "#5 starters" in a heartbeat (except Freddy Garcia, of course). The ubiquitous injury thing throughout baseball probably needs a lot more study. What's changed, if anything, in the last few years? 40 years ago 4-man rotations were common. New types of pitches that arms aren't meant to throw? Kids throwing too much too soon at the developmental levels and college? Lack of arm strength from not throwing enough? Flawed mechanics development?

 

Yankees SP stats: ERA 4.10/K-9 7.90/WHIP 1.29/OBA .262

Twins SP stats: ERA 5.48/K-9 5.62/WHIP 1.48/OBA .292

[Thrylos]

I guess that's possible, thrylos, who recently informed all of us that the situation is so sad that "the glass is not half empty or half full. The glass is shuttered on the floor in a million pieces." Wow. Have a nice day..

 

If you think that there is anything overall positive about a team that has the worst record in the league for 2 seasons in a row, and major changes are not needed to right the ship, you are deluded, thus the shuttered glass analogy...

 

Yes, there are some hopeful signs, but the facts that Diamond could be a decent #3 starter and that Willingham and Doumit have been great sings and that Mauer is being playing everyday and performing and Revere potentially broke through, etc... do not make for the facta that this team is awful as a team and that it never had 2 years in a row like this even during the darkest times, since it moved to Minnesota. The only other times that this team ended in the bottom for 2 years in a row was in 1999 and 2000 (yes, the contraction seasons) and they lost 97 and 93 those seasons.

 

FACT: Historically the last 2 seasons is the proverbial Rock Bottom. As bad as it ever got for the Twins. If that does not mean that the glass is shuttered and the team is a mess, I don't know what would make some people realize it or they rather do not see the truth.

 

Yes there are hopeful signs. But right now the team historically sucks in a way it never sucked before... And it is about time people realize it and quite thinking about the glory years or whatever that might be. This suckage is historic and it really is sad that people have blinders on.

[jokin]

thrylos, RA Dickey and Blackburn are very good examples of moves that didn't pan out. And for every example like that, we can find you an example that someone, if they wanted to, could use to make the opposite point you ALWAYS make, which is that everybody employed by the Twins is old, uses an abacus, and sucks at their job. It's great to be critical. It's perfectly fine to be pessimistic about this team.

 

This is not in the cards for you, thrylos, but being fairminded about criticism and praise, (even faint praise, jokin) is a form of honesty that most of us appreciate. Being intentionally unfair is a form of dishonesty. Are you being honest?

 

I guess that's possible, thrylos, who recently informed all of us that the situation is so sad that "the glass is not half empty or half full. The glass is shuttered on the floor in a million pieces." Wow. Have a nice day.

 

Marquis? Yes, I'm telling you I believe the "coach is clean". You see, for every example you or jokin or others want to cite as evidence of incompetence, we can cite an example to show demonstrate their prowess. For every poor trade, jokin, like everyone's favorite, Santana, there is a good trade, like Pavano. For every "bad release" like Breslow, there is a Burton.

 

Try to be balanced and fair. It will help your credibility.

 

Somehow the citation of 'Twins management "prowess demonstration"' in the last 6 years seems more oxymoronic than standard-issue concepts like: "government worker", "Microsoft Works" and "honest broker".

[darin617]

It's a combination of bad drafting, bad luck, and poor use of the FA market. You can't pin all the failures on one aspect of the organization. It took almost everybody to make this mess.

 

So does that mean Terry Ryan and Gardy have a little responsibility for this nightmare of a rotation? The one person who is actually most to blame would have to be our All Star catcher taking up almost 20% of the payroll. Just wait when the payroll drops to $100M or lower and one "hitter" is almost 25% of payroll and then you can really see how poor a rotation we will have then..........

[bird]

Deron Johnson, Mike Radcliff and forty scouts piled into a room at Super 8 (Pohlad's orders, you see) to go over the draft. Deron: "Are you serious? No way we take that guy. He throws way too many strikes." Mike: "Let me remind everyone that we will only consider pitchers who project as back of the rotation guys or worse."

[darin617]

Maybe it's time to quit babying these prospects and see if they can handle the next levels of baseball.

[drivlikejehu]

It's amazing how many Twins fans are just aghast at the idea of accountability. In what organization, of any kind, should failure be rewarded? Despite the GM switch, this is essentially the same leadership that has been in place for a long, long time. The excuses are endless. Guess what- every team has bad luck. Every team has injuries and draft picks that go awry. The Twins stink because their management made bad choices over the years, period. That is just an empirical fact.

[jokin]

Deron Johnson, Mike Radcliff and forty scouts piled into a room at Super 8 (Pohlad's orders, you see) to go over the draft. Deron: "Are you serious? No way we take that guy. He throws way too many strikes." Mike: "Let me remind everyone that we will only consider pitchers who project as back of the rotation guys or worse."

 

Add Nick Nelson to the list of whiners who missed the fair and balanced memo and apparently now another new-found questioner of alleged Twins Prowess:

 

"The signing of Nishioka and the corresponding roster maneuvering – namely, trading J.J. Hardy for what amounted to nothing – were puzzling at the time and far worse in hindsight.

 

It's not that the moves themselves have set the organization back irreversibly, as Nishioka's $3 million salary is hardly a massive burden and Hardy has come hurdling back to earth in year one of his new contract (though I'd argue he's still a decent value at $7 million). It's more that the thought process behind the decisions – the misplaced priorities, the awful player evaluation, the lack of long-term foresight – represented everything wrong with the front office under Smith. These weaknesses were also on display in moves like the Nick Blackburn extension, the Carl Pavano re-signing and the Matt Capps trade.

Mixed in with a good hint of bad luck, this shaky leadership sent a thriving and annually competitive franchise to the very bottom. The Twins lost 99 games last year and they're on pace to lose 92 this year. If it pans out that way, it will be the worst two-year stretch for the club since the early '80s. "

[bird]

That's your response, jokin? A cute, empty answer? Where's the smiley face?

[Thrylos]

Mixed in with a good hint of bad luck, this shaky leadership sent a thriving and annually competitive franchise to the very bottom. The Twins lost 99 games last year and they're on pace to lose 92 this year. If it pans out that way, it will be the worst two-year stretch for the club since the early '80s. "

 

Thanks I didn't catch that...

 

Actually it is worse than the 80s... The did finish last for 2 seasons in a row then, but one was the strike shortened '81 season. The worst was 99-00 with 97 and 93 wins (and that was the contraction time). This one is one upping it. Worst ever since they moved to MN

[LaBombo]

Deron Johnson, Mike Radcliff and forty scouts piled into a room at Super 8 (Pohlad's orders, you see) to go over the draft. Deron: "Are you serious? No way we take that guy. He throws way too many strikes." Mike: "Let me remind everyone that we will only consider pitchers who project as back of the rotation guys or worse."

 

Same straw man. More sarcastic clothes.

 

The Twins have had an awful K rate the past three seasons, including distant, dead last in MLB twice. They've usually ranged from mediocre to bad in previous years. Other than that the Twins are a franchise that doesn't value strikeouts as much as other teams, or are plagued by an organization-wide ineptitude at finding guys who can miss bats (good luck with that one), what's the story? Let's hear your theory.

 

And you're at the point where even your sarcasm doesn't make sense. Almost anybody who disagrees with you about the overall organizational pitching philosophy would expect Deron to be saying some shade of exactly the opposite of that. "Pitches to contact. Doesn't walk many. Perfect Twin! Let the defense worry about the high rate of balls put in play and the screaming line drives. It keeps them happy and engaged". Obscure FO non-player talent evaluator: "His K rate is low for a high pick". Radcliff: "Shut up and go get us more beer".

 

There's the sarcastic version of the argument you're failing to put even a tiny dent in.

[bird]

The Twins have made some really bad decisions, no doubt about it. Nishioka, re-signing Capps, signing Blackburn, the Wilson Ramos trade. Those are all really bad moves, but hardly "irreversible setbacks". It's entirely reasonable, jokin, for you and others to conclude that this FO should go.

 

The Twins have made some really good decisions, no doubt about it (or is there, jokin?). Drafting Mauer instead of Prior, trading for Santana and Nathan, signing Sano, trading Pino for Pavano, signing Arcia, Burton, Diamond, Revere....the list of good decisions goes on and on and on...right? Now, it's entirely reasonable, jokin, for me and others to conclude that changing the FO is not necessary.

[Thrylos]

Now, it's entirely reasonable, jokin, for me and others to conclude that changing the FO is not necessary.

 

Bottom line: No World Championships since 1991 when (other) young people ran the front office and the field.

 

If you like mediocrity and worse and no titles for 21 years, keep them. Some of us don't like that

[LaBombo]

 

The Twins have made some really good decisions, no doubt about it (or is there, jokin?). Drafting Mauer instead of Prior, trading for Santana and Nathan, signing Sano, trading Pino for Pavano, signing Arcia, Burton, Diamond, Revere....the list of good decisions goes on and on and on...right? Now, it's entirely reasonable, jokin, for me and others to conclude that changing the FO is not necessary.

 

Mauer was a signability pick. Santana was a great move that happened a dozen years ago. The Nathan/FL/BB trade was another great one that took place in 2004. Pavano has provided one ERA+ season above 100 at a cost of nearly $8 million per year. The last 4 are all BS's moves. If you want to make Ryan look better, how about Willingham and Doumit? That would hold more water.

 

That said, I'm happy with Ryan the roster chess player. I'm ready to give up on Ryan the shaper of the franchise's future direction.

[Bark's Lounge]

Now, it's entirely reasonable, jokin, for me and others to conclude that changing the FO is not necessary.

 

Bottom line: No World Championships since 1991 when (other) young people ran the front office and the field.

 

If you like mediocrity and worse and no titles for 21 years, keep them. Some of us don't like that

 

Thrylos, be careful what you wish for. Drayton Moore has not turned around KC's fortunes and he was a highly rated Schierholz disciple. Change is a crapshoot and I tend to believe that the Pohlads when hiring a new GM, FO staff, Field Manager and Field Coaches are going to pick the guys that fit into their method of their madness. That may be a downgrade from what we are dealing with now and last I checked, you cannot fire owners.

 

Just Sayin' Diggity

[Thrylos]

That may be a downgrade from what we are dealing with now

 

Repeat:

 

FACT: The last 2 seasons are the worst 2 consecutive seasons EVER since the franchise moved to Minnesota.

 

That bad

No way a downgrade is possible

[Brock Beauchamp]

Repeat:

 

FACT: The last 2 seasons are the worst 2 consecutive seasons EVER since the franchise moved to Minnesota.

 

That bad

No way a downgrade is possible

 

Shouldn't the Twins be allowed to play two full seasons before we start declaring this two season stretch the worst in history and declaring it as "fact"?

 

Generally, I believe "facts" are reserved for things that have actually happened, not based on future speculation.

[Thrylos]

Repeat:

 

FACT: The last 2 seasons are the worst 2 consecutive seasons EVER since the franchise moved to Minnesota SO FAR.

 

That bad

No way a downgrade is possible

 

Shouldn't the Twins be allowed to play two full seasons before we start declaring this two season stretch the worst in history and declaring it as "fact"?

 

Generally, I believe "facts" are reserved for things that have actually happened, not based on future speculation.

 

Alright. We will be here at the end of the season and I am amending my statement above to be exact... But the point is that this sucks really badly right now and small little changes here and there do not cut it...

[bird]

LaBombo, you make a compelling case regarding the "pitch to contact" philosophy and the failings of the FO to find bat-missing pitchers for the rotation. I subscribe, I'm sure, to the same theory you do on that subject, I'm guessing.

 

Sorry I fell flat with my sarcasm, and thanks for your sophisticated rhetorical criticism. The point you missed as you critiqued my work was that conclusions are often exaggerated for effect. Example: I don't think the FO needs to be repolaced. Therefore, thrylos has concluded that I "like mediocrity and worse". The FO likes pitch to contact guys, so therefore they hate strikeout pitchers. A couple of Ryan's moves haven't panned out, so therefore he doesn't have a plan. Gardy has certain biases, so therefore he has sexual relations with players who fit his mold.

 

Frankly, LaBombo, I'm less enamored with Ryan as a roster tweaker than you are I guess. But I'm also more confident that Ryan is surrounded with smart, competent people, top to bottom, and that they have a post-Target Field strategy regarding the future direction of the franchise. It will take time, but some of us are seeing many signs of improvement, the W-L record notwithstanding.

[LaBombo]

LaBombo, you make a compelling case regarding the "pitch to contact" philosophy and the failings of the FO to find bat-missing pitchers for the rotation. I subscribe, I'm sure, to the same theory you do on that subject, I'm guessing.

 

Sorry I fell flat with my sarcasm, and thanks for your sophisticated rhetorical criticism. The point you missed as you critiqued my work was that conclusions are often exaggerated for effect. Example: I don't think the FO needs to be repolaced. Therefore, thrylos has concluded that I "like mediocrity and worse". The FO likes pitch to contact guys, so therefore they hate strikeout pitchers. A couple of Ryan's moves haven't panned out, so therefore he doesn't have a plan. Gardy has certain biases, so therefore he has sexual relations with players who fit his mold.

 

Frankly, LaBombo, I'm less enamored with Ryan as a roster tweaker than you are I guess. But I'm also more confident that Ryan is surrounded with smart, competent people, top to bottom, and that they have a post-Target Field strategy regarding the future direction of the franchise. It will take time, but some of us are seeing many signs of improvement, the W-L record notwithstanding.

 

Fair enough. It was quality sarcasm; just seemed 180 off the P.T.C argument, ie. the Twins DON'T want them. And I lean heavily toward believing that an organization with a reputation for quality scouting cannot possibly fail so consistently to get strikeout pitchers if it's a priority.

 

We'll have to see where Ryan takes the Twins in the next few years. Organizational emphasis on various kinds of ballplayers aside, Ryan simply exceeds Smith in terms of trading players and signing free agents in my view. It's not that Ryan is a genious; he's pretty good in my book, and looks twice as good as he is due to the blinding contrast between his recent years and the nightmare that was Bill Smith's tenure.

[Riverbrian]

In response to the original question... I have no idea but it takes a village and the chief in charge typically.

 

The Twins have been loyal employers. Rarely Does anyone get fired from the front office... YET Bill Smith was. That's rare in this organization and suggests pretty loudly that Bill Smith is seen as responsible for something and blame worthy by the decision makers.

[bird]

I'm in 100% agreement with your assessment of Ryan, LaBombo. What gives me some extra hope is thatTarget Field ushers in a new economic situation, and I expect to see more aggressive investments. International signings; finally getting their act together in the Dominican Republic, participation in free agency, player payroll, etc. I'll look for signs, good and bad. Signing Amaurys Minier, for example, is a good sign. Ryan saying he doesn't expect to be a big player in the FA market? I'll wait to see what happens before concluding anything, but it's a worrisome signal. It ought to be interesting.

[old nurse]

You know what the good teams go, they prepare and add depth up the ass for things like that. The moment you think you're deep at a position, you realize you're not through injuries bad luck or whatever. Pavano was in his mid-30's and Blackburn is the type of arm that could fall apart at any moment. Baker & Slowey were always banged up and spending time on the DL. Hell Liriano is really the only one out of that group who I didn't see this coming, but goes to show what I know.

 

The point is depth is the greatest thing you can plan for during a major league offseason. Prepare yourself that people are gonna get hurt, prepare yourself for losing guys in the majors and minors. The Twins have long relied on having a respectable farm system for kids to come up and fill those holes in the field or rotation. Now that the farm system has tailed off those kids aren't there and you're left giving 38 year infielders multi-year contracts or having a rotation of a Duensing, Blackburn, Daduno, Diamond and the DeVries.

 

2010 Redwings starters Perkins, Manship and Swarzak. All have seen time with the Twins. Bromberg and Matt Fox were the other predominate starters for that team. New Britain had Gibson. Guerra, Guitterez, and Tyler Robertson starting. The latter three are now relievers. Robertson made it, the other two might. It is fair to say the Twins staff could not add a third quality pitch to many of these pitchers. I have every reason to believe they tried. Anything below those levels to me are always wishful thinking

I am not going to say anything about middle infielders on a pitching thread.

[John Bonnes]

I'll say this: I did a weekly podcast where we reviewed every move the Twins made. At no time do I remember us blasting the Twins for going into this season with the rotation they had. The biggest concerns were the bullpen and lineup. I'm as surprised by this year's meltdown as anyone.

[Boom Boom]

I'll say this: I did a weekly podcast where we reviewed every move the Twins made. At no time do I remember us blasting the Twins for going into this season with the rotation they had. The biggest concerns were the bullpen and lineup. I'm as surprised by this year's meltdown as anyone.

 

It certainly was a weak crop of FA starters. There really wasn't anyone on the market that was going to put this rotation over the top so I can't really fault TR for not signing more of them.

 

But even with a healthy Baker and Pavano this rotation was mediocre at best.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

At this point in 2010 Pavano, Liriano and Slowey were having good seasons. Blackburn and Baker were signed through 2013. The FO could have thought the rotation was set for a few years. Wimmers was in the low minors and would not have been part of the plan for 2012. Gibson would have allowed them to trade Slowey. The FO did not extend his contract, he would have been the odd man out. Who could have foreseen how 2011 played out with the ineffectiveness of those starters, then the injuries that continued into 2012.

 

I had heard Wimmers was the 'safe' and most league ready arm if I remember correctly. A two year ETA doesn't seem too out of reach with that being said. Unfortunately he's free fallen since the organization COMPLETELY screwed up his UCL tear. Too stupid to get the surgery done right away.

 

I'm sorry, but if you seriously believe that the Twins FO in 2010 was counting on a guy with at BEST one full year of LOW minor league experience to hold a spot in the major league 2012 rotation, well, that's just crazy. When have they ever done that voluntarily, with either pitchers or position players?

 

And the idea that Wimmers would take the place of a near-Cy Young candidate under contract through 2012 just indicates that you don't believe your own point about the 'woe is me' luck of the Twins with injuries. If you thought the point could stand on its own, you wouldn't have to rely on the rainbows and unicorns scenario you concocted to place Wimmers (darn the bad luck!) instead of Liriano (who sucked instead of getting injured and didn't fit your bad luck narrative) in the 2012 rotation.

 

So that simple a change completely screws with my whole "gag" here? Excuse me for forgetting Liriano was good for a year. 2010 being the only good season of the past 4 years can make a person forget when it wasn't really what I was basing my point around anyway. Throw Liriano in instead of Wimmers at 4 or even higher I really don't care. I thought it was likely Wimmers would be in the bigs in 2012. That actually makes it look like a better rotation they forecasted.

[bird]

John, that is interesting and surprising that no one blasted the Twins for going into the season with Baker, Liriano, Pavano, Blackburn, and Marquis/Hendriks. Given how disastrous things turned out, its understandable that we have collectively revised our own history about the level of consternation we felt. From reading the comments, one would have to be so completely incompetent to rely on that rotation that firing them is a no-brainer.

[Boom Boom]

John, that is interesting and surprising that no one blasted the Twins for going into the season with Baker, Liriano, Pavano, Blackburn, and Marquis/Hendriks. Given how disastrous things turned out, its understandable that we have collectively revised our own history about the level of consternation we felt. From reading the comments, one would have to be so completely incompetent to rely on that rotation that firing them is a no-brainer.

 

No one?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I guess as somewhat of a concluding statement, it's not that the Twins didn't draft starting pitchers for the future or reload. They did draft plenty of high upside hurlers and the success rate finally caught up to them. Look at any draft and you'll see how few of those guys 'make it'. In the Twins case, nearly all of those guys failed and drafting late, poor coaching, poor scouting, and the big one: injuries/medical staff, ravaged the starting pitching pipeline and system. More or less, it's an excuse on behalf of the management that gets a lot of heat here. Sure, you can attribute some of problem to them, but much of it was unpredictable and a part of baseball that just happens. Different faces in the front office situation couldn't have handled it much better. These multiple occurrences would hurt most major league teams and not just the 'lowly' and 'stupid' Twins.