What's to Blame for the Rotation?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

What frequently gets tossed around on TD is that the Twins failed to 'restock' on arms. True to an extent, I fervently disagree it's the main problem and I think it's more unfortunate luck to fault. The Twins lack of depth there has been exposed this season, but that's not to say the original plan was bad. 2 'major league ready' pitchers they drafted both succumbed to TJ surgery and a few previously reliable starters flopped in addition to a free agent signing.

At this point, the Twins FO of 2010 had to expect a rotation similar to this:

1. Gibson

2. Baker

3. Innings Eater Pavano

4. Wimmers

5. Blackburn

 

Liriano also being a factor if everything went according to plan. Injuries took a toll on 4/5 of these players (TJ for 3) and that's not something any FO could predict.

[DPJ]

A combination of Deron Johnson and the Twins scouts and a fundamentally flawed idea that back of the rotation arms can anchor a rotation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's a combination of bad drafting, bad luck, and poor use of the FA market. You can't pin all the failures on one aspect of the organization. It took almost everybody to make this mess.

[gunnarthor]

A combination of Deron Johnson and the Twins scouts and a fundamentally flawed idea that back of the rotation arms can anchor a rotation.

You do realize that Johnson's drafting philosophy has been far different than Radcliff's, right? Gibson, Hunt, Bullock, Tootle, Berrios, Willaims, Gutierrez, Boer, Boyd etc can not really be described as typical Twins pitchers. Wimmers would fall into that category but generally Johnson has made more risky picks on flame throwers and HS pitchers than Radcliff did.

[drivlikejehu]

Relying on a best-case scenario is pretty much always the step right before failure, in baseball or anything else. But the pitching situation is just an organizational problem that we can't trace directly, from the outside. Johnson would seem to be an obvious factor, and no doubt he is one, but the groundwork is all laid by the scouts on the ground across the country (and world). Not to mention, Johnson and the scouting department, and every other aspect of the organization, are part of a Twins' culture that is outdated.

 

If Ryan has a real strategy to turn things around, we wouldn't know about it. Unfortunately I suspect it's something along the lines of 'get back to the old ways' rather than 'let's rethink things and see how we can bring ourselves up to date.'

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Maybe all these faults were pre-destined.... it did allow Minnesota to draft Byron Buxton, Twins superstar, and a future member of the HOF....

[Willihammer]

There are over 50 starting pitchers on the DL around baseball. Any FO that doesn't account for injury risk from pitching is thinking wishfully.

[DPJ]

You do realize that Johnson's drafting philosophy has been far different than Radcliff's, right? Gibson, Hunt, Bullock, Tootle, Berrios, Willaims, Gutierrez, Boer, Boyd etc can not really be described as typical Twins pitchers. Wimmers would fall into that category but generally Johnson has made more risky picks on flame throwers and HS pitchers than Radcliff did.

Half those guys profiled as relief pitchers, some are too young or early in their career to comment on and the rest have been hurt or suck.

 

So once again, blame goes toward Deron Johnson.

[Thrylos]

It's a combination of bad drafting, bad luck, and poor use of the FA market. You can't pin all the failures on one aspect of the organization. It took almost everybody to make this mess.

 

Agreed, but you have to add:

 

- bad player development

- bad coaching

- bad scouting and evaluation of their own players (e.g. RA Dickey, Kevin Slowey)

- bad training and medical staff

[Boom Boom]

It's a combination of bad drafting, bad luck, and poor use of the FA market. You can't pin all the failures on one aspect of the organization. It took almost everybody to make this mess.

 

Agreed, but you have to add:

 

- bad player development

- bad coaching

- bad scouting and evaluation of their own players (e.g. RA Dickey, Kevin Slowey)

- bad training and medical staff

 

Bad trades?

 

Out of the three pitchers the Twins received in the Santana trade, two never made a start for the Twins and are now gone, and the third is a full-time reliever now.

[Thrylos]

Bad trades?

 

Out of the three pitchers the Twins received in the Santana trade, two never made a start for the Twins and are now gone, and the third is a full-time reliever now.

 

Guerra is still young. Mulvey was turned into Rauch who helped the Twins win a division title. The guy who threw the perfect game is part of the bad player evaluation part. Same with Gomez/JJ Hardy.

 

Still what they got from Santana was probably more than what they would have gotten with 2 sandwich picks in 2008 (because the Mets' pick was the 33rd below the Twins' sup pick). Here is who was drafted in 2008 in the 1st and sup rounds. Not exactly ground shakers where those picks would have been....

[old nurse]

At this point in 2010 Pavano, Liriano and Slowey were having good seasons. Blackburn and Baker were signed through 2013. The FO could have thought the rotation was set for a few years. Wimmers was in the low minors and would not have been part of the plan for 2012. Gibson would have allowed them to trade Slowey. The FO did not extend his contract, he would have been the odd man out. Who could have foreseen how 2011 played out with the ineffectiveness of those starters, then the injuries that continued into 2012.

[Buck Nasty]

At this point in 2010 Pavano, Liriano and Slowey were having good seasons. Blackburn and Baker were signed through 2013. The FO could have thought the rotation was set for a few years. Wimmers was in the low minors and would not have been part of the plan for 2012. Gibson would have allowed them to trade Slowey. The FO did not extend his contract, he would have been the odd man out. Who could have foreseen how 2011 played out with the ineffectiveness of those starters, then the injuries that continued into 2012.

 

Absolutely. It all fell apart so fast. Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey all had double digit wins that year and pitched over 150 innings each. Then you had Duensing finish the year as a starter and did ok (I think he took over when Slowey went down). All those guys were ages 26-28 except Pavano. Then there was Perkins (still a starter at that time in AAA), Swarzak (prospect star fading, but still only 24 at that time), Gibson (22) at AA along with Guerra (21) and two more 21 year olds in Wimmers/Hendricks at A ball. Wow that blew up fast....

[bird]

To blame the Twin's pitching problems on any one person (Deron Johnson? C'mon.) or label it all as bad bad bad bad (thrylos of course) is incredibly simplistic. This year's rotation problems specifically? The buck stops clearly with Ryan. Some of people think they made a good call and had bad luck. Some people, myself included, think they made an risky bet and paid the price. And of course, some people are far less charitable.

 

I have a theory related to the causes of the current shortage of promising starters in the system, and I would suggest this order of the most significant causes:

 

1. A full decade of picking in the back half of the draft order. (One exception, which netted us Hicks). No prospect considered to have a #1 ceiling was available to the Twins, not one, during this entire ten-year period. No high-profile, sure-fire ace lasts until even the 14th pick of the first round. Go for ten years, or 500 rounds worth of selections, always picking in the second half, and then ask yourself why anyone should expect your pitching pipeline to be better than average. By the way, the Twin's farm system is still more highly rated than any othe team in its division except KC, which has picked in top five for over a decade probably.

2. Some bad luck with injuries and setbacks that could not have been anticipated.**

3. Some bad decisions.**

 

Some of you are experts, so you can tell us which of these picks was bad luck versus bad judgment. If you submit that they are all a result of bad judgment, you have zero credibility. Zero. Hunt, Bashore, Gutierrez, Tootle, Gibson, Wimmers, Waldrop, Rainville, Fox...

 

I don't buy all the bad evaluation, bad scouting, bad coaching, bad development nonsense. And I definately also do not buy the "soft tosser" preference stuff. I'm very skeptical that ther's been any change in philosophy regarding "hard throwers", although by appearances, it's possible. I just don't think the five dozen scouts employed by the Twins are told to avoid pitchers who "throw hard". Here's a test: make a list of the top 20 "hardest throwers" on the Twins active roster over the past decade. Then make a list of the top 20 "softest tossers". Now, compare the fastball velocity of the #20 guy on each list. What's the difference? My guess is about 2.5MPH. This soft versus hard is simplistic.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

At this point in 2010 Pavano, Liriano and Slowey were having good seasons. Blackburn and Baker were signed through 2013. The FO could have thought the rotation was set for a few years. Wimmers was in the low minors and would not have been part of the plan for 2012. Gibson would have allowed them to trade Slowey. The FO did not extend his contract, he would have been the odd man out. Who could have foreseen how 2011 played out with the ineffectiveness of those starters, then the injuries that continued into 2012.

 

I had heard Wimmers was the 'safe' and most league ready arm if I remember correctly. A two year ETA doesn't seem too out of reach with that being said. Unfortunately he's free fallen since the organization COMPLETELY screwed up his UCL tear. Too stupid to get the surgery done right away.

[DPJ]

At this point in 2010 Pavano, Liriano and Slowey were having good seasons. Blackburn and Baker were signed through 2013. The FO could have thought the rotation was set for a few years. Wimmers was in the low minors and would not have been part of the plan for 2012. Gibson would have allowed them to trade Slowey. The FO did not extend his contract, he would have been the odd man out. Who could have foreseen how 2011 played out with the ineffectiveness of those starters, then the injuries that continued into 2012.

 

You know what the good teams go, they prepare and add depth up the ass for things like that. The moment you think you're deep at a position, you realize you're not through injuries bad luck or whatever. Pavano was in his mid-30's and Blackburn is the type of arm that could fall apart at any moment. Baker & Slowey were always banged up and spending time on the DL. Hell Liriano is really the only one out of that group who I didn't see this coming, but goes to show what I know.

 

The point is depth is the greatest thing you can plan for during a major league offseason. Prepare yourself that people are gonna get hurt, prepare yourself for losing guys in the majors and minors. The Twins have long relied on having a respectable farm system for kids to come up and fill those holes in the field or rotation. Now that the farm system has tailed off those kids aren't there and you're left giving 38 year infielders multi-year contracts or having a rotation of a Duensing, Blackburn, Daduno, Diamond and the DeVries.

[jokin]

...and then ask yourself why anyone should expect your pitching pipeline to be better than average....

 

 

 

OK. I just did. Given the succession of-

 

poor trades of pitchers moved from, or acquired by, the Twins,

the outright release of arms left with value and

outright misses on now-MLB-successful lower round pitching draft picks on other teams,

the current wretched state of the pitching staff up and down the upper levels of the system,

an apparently flawed training and developmental regimen and,

an apparently less-than-competent medical evaluation process-

 

I found myself more than acceptant to a pipeline slighly below average as a reasonable expectation. The Twins failed even at a bar set that low.

[jokin]

....By the way, the Twin's farm system is still more highly rated than any othe team in its division except KC....

 

Filed for new entry under- Faint Praise, damning with (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=damn%20with%20faint%20praise)

[gunnarthor]

To blame the Twin's pitching problems on any one person (Deron Johnson? C'mon.) or label it all as bad bad bad bad (thrylos of course) is incredibly simplistic. This year's rotation problems specifically? The buck stops clearly with Ryan. Some of people think they made a good call and had bad luck. Some people, myself included, think they made an risky bet and paid the price. And of course, some people are far less charitable.

 

I have a theory related to the causes of the current shortage of promising starters in the system, and I would suggest this order of the most significant causes:

 

1. A full decade of picking in the back half of the draft order. (One exception, which netted us Hicks). No prospect considered to have a #1 ceiling was available to the Twins, not one, during this entire ten-year period. No high-profile, sure-fire ace lasts until even the 14th pick of the first round. Go for ten years, or 500 rounds worth of selections, always picking in the second half, and then ask yourself why anyone should expect your pitching pipeline to be better than average. By the way, the Twin's farm system is still more highly rated than any othe team in its division except KC, which has picked in top five for over a decade probably.

2. Some bad luck with injuries and setbacks that could not have been anticipated.**

3. Some bad decisions.**

 

Some of you are experts, so you can tell us which of these picks was bad luck versus bad judgment. If you submit that they are all a result of bad judgment, you have zero credibility. Zero. Hunt, Bashore, Gutierrez, Tootle, Gibson, Wimmers, Waldrop, Rainville, Fox...

 

I don't buy all the bad evaluation, bad scouting, bad coaching, bad development nonsense. And I definately also do not buy the "soft tosser" preference stuff. I'm very skeptical that ther's been any change in philosophy regarding "hard throwers", although by appearances, it's possible. I just don't think the five dozen scouts employed by the Twins are told to avoid pitchers who "throw hard". Here's a test: make a list of the top 20 "hardest throwers" on the Twins active roster over the past decade. Then make a list of the top 20 "softest tossers". Now, compare the fastball velocity of the #20 guy on each list. What's the difference? My guess is about 2.5MPH. This soft versus hard is simplistic.

 

This is a good post. After the 2004 draft, BA ranked the Twins draft the best. But injuries hit all four of those pitchers ...

 

IIRC, Gutierrez was seen as a reach in the first round but it could also have been a money thing, since the Twins had 3 picks in the top 30ish that year. Klaw ripped the Twins for taking Gutierrez but praised them for taking Hunt. I think the prospect community (BA, Klaw, Prospectus, Mayo) have generally been positive of recent Twins drafts. We got a lot of praise for taking Gibson, Hicks, and the last two years drafts first few picks. We got some criticism for taking Revere and Span and not overpaying later in the draft (I think that has some basis in reality, I wish the Twins would have spent a little more and signed Marvel this season, for instance). Parmelee was seen as a good gamble pick as he was the #1 high school power bat in his draft class. Wimmers was a well regarded conservative move although some pushed for the Twins to take a gamble on HS pitcher Stetson Allie. I can't remember the specifics of taking guys like Tootle, Bullock and Bashore but I think someone wondered about the health of one of them. The Twins tendency to draft toolsy HS players is probably something that most in the prospect community support, since they understand the Twins are making an athletic bet and they probably enjoy that.

[Thrylos]

 

 

I don't buy all the bad evaluation, bad scouting, bad coaching, bad development nonsense. .

 

So tell us why R.A. Dickey is not a Twin right now and why Blackburn is signed until 2014? Luck?

 

Cleveland got rid of their pitching coach even though their rotation has been better than the Twins. The Twins are on pace to finish with the worse record in the AL for a second season in a row and the Scholarships that the interim was so against at the beginning of the season, still stand for the manager and the coaches of that debacle.

 

How can they be unscratched here. Someone has to pay.

 

And Marquis who was pitching like crap earlier this season, took a no-hitter into the 7th inning and ended up with a two-hitter. And you are telling me the coach is clean....

[LaBombo]

 

I don't buy all the bad evaluation, bad scouting, bad coaching, bad development nonsense. And I definately also do not buy the "soft tosser" preference stuff. I'm very skeptical that ther's been any change in philosophy regarding "hard throwers", although by appearances, it's possible. I just don't think the five dozen scouts employed by the Twins are told to avoid pitchers who "throw hard". Here's a test: make a list of the top 20 "hardest throwers" on the Twins active roster over the past decade. Then make a list of the top 20 "softest tossers". Now, compare the fastball velocity of the #20 guy on each list. What's the difference? My guess is about 2.5MPH. This soft versus hard is simplistic.

 

How many people are discussing the Twins' pitching philosophy purely in terms of velocity? Most people are talking in terms of "pitch to contact" and the low strikeout rate that goes with it.

 

In Liriano's last good year, 2010, the Twins still managed to finish ahead of only perennial also-rans KC, Baltimore, Seattle, and Cleveland in K rate among all MLB teams. Last year, they were dead last, and will almost certainly finish 2012 in their current position, dead last.

 

When an organization posts a dreadful strikeout rate and then lowers it in the following seasons despite spending more than the league average, then two things are apparent.

 

1. Blaming Ryan for this mess after less than a year on the job is beyond ridiculous. He was handed a bag of crap that started really stinking after Wild BS took over.

 

2. At least some, if not all, of the facets of the organization you insist are not bad... are pretty bleeping bad.

[LimestoneBaggy]

So tell us why R.A. Dickey is not a Twin right now

 

For the same reason that Scott Diamond isn't a Brave right now.

[LaBombo]

At this point in 2010 Pavano, Liriano and Slowey were having good seasons. Blackburn and Baker were signed through 2013. The FO could have thought the rotation was set for a few years. Wimmers was in the low minors and would not have been part of the plan for 2012. Gibson would have allowed them to trade Slowey. The FO did not extend his contract, he would have been the odd man out. Who could have foreseen how 2011 played out with the ineffectiveness of those starters, then the injuries that continued into 2012.

 

I had heard Wimmers was the 'safe' and most league ready arm if I remember correctly. A two year ETA doesn't seem too out of reach with that being said. Unfortunately he's free fallen since the organization COMPLETELY screwed up his UCL tear. Too stupid to get the surgery done right away.

 

I'm sorry, but if you seriously believe that the Twins FO in 2010 was counting on a guy with at BEST one full year of LOW minor league experience to hold a spot in the major league 2012 rotation, well, that's just crazy. When have they ever done that voluntarily, with either pitchers or position players?

 

And the idea that Wimmers would take the place of a near-Cy Young candidate under contract through 2012 just indicates that you don't believe your own point about the 'woe is me' luck of the Twins with injuries. If you thought the point could stand on its own, you wouldn't have to rely on the rainbows and unicorns scenario you concocted to place Wimmers (darn the bad luck!) instead of Liriano (who sucked instead of getting injured and didn't fit your bad luck narrative) in the 2012 rotation.

 

Agree with your assessment that the Twins multiplied their own bad luck with their handling of Wimmers' injury. It's an ugly, repeating theme in an organization that has several others as well.

 

It's looking more and more like the Twins fear losing a bunch of games more than they fear not contending, and fear change even more than they fear losing.

 

Twins Fear-o-meter summary: not contending < losing season(s) < change.

[Seth Stohs]

Someone has to pay.

 

Geez, what is this? Some marvel comic movie???

 

We get it... Bobby Cuellar is the great pitching coach ever (with the possible exception of Dave Duncan)... right?

[Seth Stohs]

I would agree with those that say blaming any one person is ridiculous. Deron Johnson has drafted well, but obviously things haven't worked out yet for a few of the pitchers. Gibson was a good choice. Wimmers was a good choice. Bashore was a lefty throwing 97 two weeks before the draft. Tootle was throwing triple-digits. Bullock was only walking one every other inning back then. Gutierrez was a top closer coming out of a top university just a year after Tommy John. If the Twins didn't take him at 27, the Red Sox would have before the Twins took Hunt at 31. No one can predict Steve Blass disease.

 

I know most think I'm overly positive, but to say that there isn't some bad luck in there isn't fair either.

 

We've seen the lack of power arms throughout the system. Each of those pitchers (with the exception of the two best - Gibson/Wimmers) were power arms.

 

Go back to that 2004 draft. Perkins has turned out pretty good. Waldrop got hurt. Swarzak had other issues, but he's been alright in long relief. Rainville got hurt. Morlan got traded before he got hurt.

 

2005 - Duensing's been a very good 3rd round pick, especially in the bullpen.

 

I don't know. I just hate always needing to find blame. Things happen and then they need to respond. That's what this year and next year are all about.

[Thrylos]

Someone has to pay.

 

Geez, what is this? Some marvel comic movie???

 

We get it... Bobby Cuellar is the great pitching coach ever (with the possible exception of Dave Duncan)... right?

 

It's professional sports. When a team has been the worst in the league for 2 years in a row, changes have to be made. That simple. Look at Cleveland this season and Boston last season. And both are better than where the Twins have been. Look at the football team in Minnesota after last season when it hit rock bottom. They made changes. The Twins have stayed pretty much unchanged (other than musical chairs) since TK retired on the field and since Andy MacPhail left on the front office. That does not serve them well.... About time for some new blood there.

 

And I do not like Duncan (and any one on that A's cheater team). For all we know Duncan and La Russa injected their own players. Who knows (and who cares, other than the fact that they cheated the Twins out of AL West division championships back then...)

 

But it is time that there is some blame placed on Gardy and Andy and Company (like every other professional sports franchise does... before the Twins turn into a worse than a marvel comic movie - if they are not already there...)

[IdahoPilgrim]

Driving through upstate New York today, I listened to a local sports channel on the radio. Guess what they were griping about? The Yankees starting pitching. All the injuries to pitchers (and they were blaming a poor medical staff too). How half their rotation are #5 starters at best (would you believe that one has a record barely over .500?) The more things change...

[gunnarthor]

Someone has to pay.

 

Geez, what is this? Some marvel comic movie???

 

We get it... Bobby Cuellar is the great pitching coach ever (with the possible exception of Dave Duncan)... right?

 

It's professional sports. When a team has been the worst in the league for 2 years in a row, changes have to be made. That simple. Look at Cleveland this season and Boston last season. And both are better than where the Twins have been. Look at the football team in Minnesota after last season when it hit rock bottom. They made changes. The Twins have stayed pretty much unchanged (other than musical chairs) since TK retired on the field and since Andy MacPhail left on the front office. That does not serve them well.... About time for some new blood there.

 

Did Cleveland make a move that I missed? Acta's still their manager, right? Boston isn't really like any situation the Twins have.

 

Changes made by Twins since 99 loss year: Fired GM, brought in Ryan. Added Krivisky to front office. Fired AAA coaches and promoted Bruno. Moved Radcliff back to draft room to work w/Johnson. (I know you'll say something silly like Ryan is the same as Smith, Krivisky is retread, Radcliff should be fired, not put in charge of draft. And you'll say something nice about Bruno). Generally, stability in a team is a good thing. How many GMs and managers did the Rays, Royals, Pirates, Ranagers, M's go through? Ryan et all has shown he can create a winning team and quickly rebuild the teams nucleus. He deserves a chance to show he can do it again.

 

Gardy and Andy have a track record of success, so they get a chance to rebuild. This is Gardy's 11th season and it'll be his 3rd w/a losing record. One less than Francona.

[Thrylos]

 

Did Cleveland make a move that I missed? Acta's still their manager, right? Boston isn't really like any situation the Twins have.

 

Changes made by Twins since 99 loss year: Fired GM, brought in Ryan. Added Krivisky to front office. Fired AAA coaches and promoted Bruno. Moved Radcliff back to draft room to work w/Johnson. (I know you'll say something silly like Ryan is the same as Smith, Krivisky is retread, Radcliff should be fired, not put in charge of draft. And you'll say something nice about Bruno). Generally, stability in a team is a good thing. How many GMs and managers did the Rays, Royals, Pirates, Ranagers, M's go through? Ryan et all has shown he can create a winning team and quickly rebuild the teams nucleus. He deserves a chance to show he can do it again.

 

Gardy and Andy have a track record of success, so they get a chance to rebuild. This is Gardy's 11th season and it'll be his 3rd w/a losing record. One less than Francona.

 

 

Cleveland fired their pitching coach.

 

Stability in a team is a good thing when they are winning titles. And the Twins have not won since '91. And that is a whole different group than the '91 group (other than Rantz.) They need to change

 

Childress had a better record of winning with the Vikings (he took them deeper in the post season and was cheated out of the Super Bowl) than Gardenhire ever did for the Twins (including a season when he led the team that included both the MVP and the Cy Young winner to a postseason sweep). Gardy and Andy have been the masters of 3 and outs in the post-season. They need to follow Childress' path. Interesting that the same fan base thinks so differently about their Football and Baseball leaders.

[Monkeypaws]

I'd say a combination of bad luck - bad scouting - law of averages.

 

Gibson and Wimmers having TJ, well that's probably all 3.

 

Shooter Hunt going wild, nobody predicted it.

 

Adam Johnson, bad scouting.

 

Ryan Mills was a bullet proof prospect on draft day. Bad luck.

 

 

I think the missing element of Twins pitching prospects is make-up more than anything. I want guys that battle on every pitch, that are mentally tough; you can pitch to contact if you have that, and baseball smarts, another quality I find lacking in a lot of our pitchers.

 

Radke is a good example of what I'm talking about.