I'm looking for theories here. I have no idea what happened. My current theorems:

 

1. These latter two picks make sense IF they didn't get any kind of discount from Boras and Lewis. That is certainly possible.

 

2. Their choice got sniped sometime before 35. Either the agent they were working with didn't get the word out or a team saved money someplace else.

 

3. They couldn't come to agreement with Carlson (who seemed to be the obvious pick).

 

Anything I'm missing?

To me #1 is inexcusable. They had the 1st pick, they should know exactly what the bonus is going to be before the pick is made. If Boras won't play, if he says the only way to know what we'll sign for is to pick us and find out - then you pass, unless you have him head and shoulders above everyone else on your board.

My opinion is that the Twins were not that impressed with Carlson. If they were, they would have drafted and signed him!

My opinion is that the Twins were not that impressed with Carlson. If they were, they would have drafted and signed him!

Well yeah, that looks likely. But, the question is, were they right to not be impressed by him? Time will tell.

I'm looking for theories here. I have no idea what happened. My current theorems:

 

1. These latter two picks make sense IF they didn't get any kind of discount from Boras and Lewis. That is certainly possible.

 

2. Their choice got sniped sometime before 35. Either the agent they were working with didn't get the word out or a team saved money someplace else.

 

3. They couldn't come to agreement with Carlson (who seemed to be the obvious pick).

 

Anything I'm missing?

They got the top talent at 1. A stud at 35 and huge upside at 37? If Carlson was obvious he lasted many picks later to a team with no $$ leverage.

 

This is a great draft, and going to get better

There are still some pretty decent upside guys left. Enlow, for example.

Carlson is going to sign with the Mariners by all accounts... Can't believe we passed on him.

My thought the last few weeks is these pitchers aren't good enough go with the top position player.  Maybe in the end Lewis isn't under slot because he actually is good.  we've been chasing pitchers like NFL teams chase QB's and it's been a disaster.

Carlson was passed on by a lot of teams. Twins didn't miss on him, they and many others went a different direction. Twins don't have a proven history of developing pitchers. They do have for developing athletes that are position players. The pitching situation needs to be solved by f/a and trades. The need is too immediate and great to wait 3-5 years on a maybe.

At the end of the day I'd much rather have drafted Hunter Green, Sam Carlson, and Matt Sauer. 

I'm impressed by the evaluation skills of people on this board who know nothing about any of these hs arms other than a quick glance at a ba ranking.

 

For context, the average difference between the 30 pick and 100 pick is less than 1 WAR a career, so these rankings are more academic than anything. There is so little surface difference between Leach and Carlson, is it really worth this angst? Or the pretending that you actually know the difference between them?

 

I suspect the savings is going to be used to load up on hs arms. The majority won't really be heard from, but if 1 or 2 hit, it is a very successful draft strategy.

I think people on this thread need to take a breath, step back and look at the big picture:

 

1.  Best athlete prep in the country from the best baseball state at number 1.

 

2.  Best college bat in the country at number 2.

 

3.  Best pitcher in Canada who looks like a Corey Kluber clone at number 3.

 

These guys study things during the day, like advanced analytics, historical trends, body types, spin rates, and other factors.

 

They got this.

I think people on this thread need to take a breath, step back and look at the big picture:

 

1. Best athlete prep in the country from the best baseball state at number 1.

 

2. Best college bat in the country at number 2.

 

3. Best pitcher in Canada who looks like a Corey Kluber clone at number 3.

 

These guys study things during the day, like advanced analytics, historical trends, body types, spin rates, and other factors.

 

They got this.

I agree, seems like a very solid draft to me so far. And they have more money to throw around to increase depth in later rounds, especially hs arms.

This is a draft that has a lot of us mystified.  Maybe the new FO has a theory that drafting pitchers high is a crap shoot and that the best position players(Cubs have used this strategy since Epstein took over).  

2.  Pohlad has agreed to buy FA pitchers as Twins will need them sooner or later

3.  Position players are weaker in the Twins farm system and maybe some of the outfielders and a couple of prospects will be traded for pitching help with some of these their replacements(most will arrive about the time current crop leaves).

4.  Twins may only see the money to sign 1 - 2 of their current young players(Sano for sure, hopefully), so use this last chance to upgrade position players for the future.

 

We do not know the plan, but will reserve judgement until after this offseason and see if the checkbook opens for significant pitching reinforcements. 

As much as you want guys to be sure thing pitchers there are very few.  Look at Strasburg who is as close as it gets a ton of injuries and at this stage ERA's in the mid 3's in the NL the last 3 years after getting rocked pretty hard last night.  Clearly in hindsight I'd still take Strasburg over Lewis but position players seem to play up to there drat position more so then pitchers at the top of the draft.  Plus i like the idea of busting like Buxton (so far) rather then busting like a #5 starter.  Pitchers can't really give you a little position players can.

Looks like the fake news was that Rooker will turn 22... He is 22, and will turn 23 this year.

 

Looks like the fake news was that Rooker will turn 22... He is 22, and will turn 23 this year.

 

The hope is he's a fast riser who could get a cup of coffee in September next year.. Guess they found their DH since he won't have a lot of time to develop defensively. 

 

The hope is he's a fast riser who could get a cup of coffee in September next year.. Guess they found their DH since he won't have a lot of time to develop defensively. 

 

Based on how fast they've promoted players this year, do you really believe this will happen?

 

Based on how fast they've promoted players this year, do you really believe this will happen?

 

Not one bit. 

 

Based on how fast they've promoted players this year, do you really believe this will happen?

 

What matters is how good he is. If he can really hit, the Twins are not going to just lock him in the low minors for years. They have been somewhat conservative with promoting minor league relievers, but other than that I don't see who they are holding back?

 

I think people on this thread need to take a breath, step back and look at the big picture:

 

1.  Best athlete prep in the country from the best baseball state at number 1.

 

2.  Best college bat in the country at number 2.

 

3.  Best pitcher in Canada who looks like a Corey Kluber clone at number 3.

 

These guys study things during the day, like advanced analytics, historical trends, body types, spin rates, and other factors.

 

They got this.

 

Best curveball spin rate out of high school is still available today: Blayne Enlow.

 

Best curveball spin rate out of high school is still available today: Blayne Enlow.

 

that's who I'd take right now.

I'm going to guess that Leach isn't going to sign for much under slot, if at all, especially if he was talking that he wanted to go to college.  Maybe they will spend money on him.

 

Seems to have a good scouting report.

 

I'm impressed by the evaluation skills of people on this board who know nothing about any of these hs arms other than a quick glance at a ba ranking.

For context, the average difference between the 30 pick and 100 pick is less than 1 WAR a career, so these rankings are more academic than anything. There is so little surface difference between Leach and Carlson, is it really worth this angst? Or the pretending that you actually know the difference between them?

I suspect the savings is going to be used to load up on hs arms. The majority won't really be heard from, but if 1 or 2 hit, it is a very successful draft strategy.

Dude, stop trying to calm me down. I got angst and your thoughtful prose is killing it.

 

Maybe Pohlad has promised to buy the pitching needed.  Is that possible?

My best guess is we will package 2 of our AA arms to get a proven starting pitcher  at the deadline. During the off season, I believe we will sign a free agent in the 3 year, 45-50M range. Having the front of the rotation set with Santana and Berrios is huge. We have the money and prospects to fill out 3,4,5.

Edited June 13, 20179 yr by howieramone2

 

My best guess is we will package 2 of our AA arms to get a proven starting pitcher  at the deadline. During the off season, I believe we will sign a free agent in the 3 year, 45-50M range. Having the front of the rotation set with Santana and Berrios is huge. We have the money and prospects to fill out 3,4,5.

Santana is a #3 usually and Berrios has an upside of a #2.  We still need that ace, rest can be filled out by farm system.  I am OK if Pohlad spends the money this winter to fix the bullpen(short term) and get us that ace or very good #2 starter.  Just would be anti-Twins to do this.

 

My best guess is we will package 2 of our AA arms to get a proven starting pitcher  at the deadline. During the off season, I believe we will sign a free agent in the 3 year, 45-50M range. Having the front of the rotation set with Santana and Berrios is huge. We have the money and prospects to fill out 3,4,5.

 

I wasn't aware we had two AA arms that together could nab a top of the rotation starter. If that were the case then I hope they pull the trigger sooner than later before any more arms fall off down there.

 

So, they drafted three guys ahead of their consensus rankings. Using the same scouts that drafted Stewart and Jay. To save money for what, exactly?

True, the same scouts who drafted Berrios and Gonsalves.

 

I wasn't aware we had two AA arms that together could nab a top of the rotation starter. If that were the case then I hope they pull the trigger sooner than later before any more arms fall off down there.

He said proven starter, not top of the rotation starter.

 

Personally, I'd strongly consider trying to move Dozier for pitching. If that doesn't work, then I'd default to considering Gordon and one of Gonsalves/Romero for pitching.

 

He said proven starter, not top of the rotation starter.

 

Personally, I'd strongly consider trying to move Dozier for pitching. If that doesn't work, then I'd default to considering Gordon and one of Gonsalves/Romero for pitching.

 

Who will you get better than them, that is controllable for more than 2 years? Because I'm not trading Gordon and a SP in AA for a rental. I'm not even trading Gordon alone for a rental. No way.

 

Who will you get better than them, that is controllable for more than 2 years? Because I'm not trading Gordon and a SP in AA for a rental. I'm not even trading Gordon alone for a rental. No way.

No, it'd need to be a controlled guy. No rentals that aren't relievers this season.

 

If it takes more than that - and it might - then start the discussions there.

 

But Gordon is going to close out this season as a top 50 guy (maybe a top 30 guy) provided he doesn't get injured. He's a prized commodity at 21 years old, .880 OPS in AA, with his defensive acumen.