Article: Hunter Greene's Trouble With The Curve

[Parker Hageman]

If you are following baseball’s upcoming draft, you have undoubtedly heard the name Hunter Greene - the two-way hard-throwing kid from a Los Angeles-area prep school. If you somehow missed it, Sports Illustrated offered a glowing profile of a kid with plus makeup and off the charts attitude. After reading it, you come away certain this is a can’t miss, surefire Hall of Famer. To drive the point home, on the cover the magazine asked “Baseball’s Lebron or the next Babe?”

 

In less than 24 hours we will know which direction Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and company have decided to lead the Minnesota Twins. Will they go with the sky-high ceiling of prep school graduate Hunter Greene or target a “safer” college pitcher like Kyle Wright or Brendan McKay, two arms that are further along the development timeline, or, hell, even a position player like Royce Lewis or Pavin Smith?

 

If you are basing your reaction off the SI article, you will be sadly disappointed when and if the Twins decide to go another direction. Here’s one reason why the Twins might be vindicated on the decision to pass on baseball’s Lebron.Believe it or not, there are good reasons for the Twins to pass on Greene (as noted recently by Nick Nelson in his excellent profile). Most seem to be concerned with his injury potential and while that may be one of them, we have to remember that almost all pitchers are a high injury risk to some degree. A study from 2016 that links the usage of fastballs (rather than velocity) may make Greene’s reliance on his fastball a slightly higher risk for Tommy John.

 

One of the more common criticisms levied against Greene is the relatively weak set of secondary offerings to go along with his hundred mile per hour fastball. He throws a curve, slider and changeup but none of them stand out in reports. The Pioneer Press’s Charley Walters echoed this in a recent column saying "despite a fastball that reaches 100 mph, [Greene] has little concept of a breaking ball.”

 

Is that right? Little concept? In his senior season Greene has flashed signs that he has some concept of a breaking ball as you can see on this little ditty below.

 

Of course, that specific pitch may have been a rare one-off, well-executed bender for him. Plus, he is squaring off against high school competition that is doing everything possible to just touch the elite velocity pitch. Anything other than the fastball thrown is likely going to induce a big miss. Nevertheless, If we are to take the consensus at its face, scouting reports have been consistent in that criticism about Greene. In May MLB.com’s Jim Callis said that some scouts have rated his curveball as well-below average. While his secondary offerings may not be in the same universe as, say, Josh Beckett’s or Kerry Wood’s curveball coming out of high school, the point is, that depth, tilt and location is evidence that Greene has *some* concept of a breaking ball and that may be a significant factor in the decision whether or not to draft Hunter Greene number one overall.

 

In terms of the tools Greene possesses as a pitcher, the most touted is his ability to reach triple-digits heat as a 17-year-old. That, in and of itself, is a big reason why he has garnered national attention. If you pop the glove at that type of speed at that age, you will be swarmed by men in bucket hats and polo shirts carrying radar guns all summer long. Having said that, the super hard throwing high school pitcher club is not the exclusive fraternity that it once was. There are 14-year-olds shoving 92 in Alabama (by comparison, Greene was hitting 83 as a freshman in high school). Elite velocity still gets hitters out at a high clip at the major league level but almost all pitchers need a wrinkle to mix in and scouts have felt Greene’s secondary offerings have average potential at best.

 

The curveball has become a weapon du jour of analytics teams. Tom Verducci wrote an article about the revival of the pitch in major league baseball, noting the rise of Houston’s Lance McCullers and his reliance on his unhittable deuce as the reason for his big season. In the profile Verducci remarked that “[o]rganizations have learned that if someone does not show an aptitude to spin a baseball as an amateur, it’s foolish to expect him to acquire the skill.” Houston’s general manager Jeff Ludlow did not disagree. In short, if you don’t already have a snapdragon bender that spins at 2,900-plus rpm by the time you are drafted, chances are it will never come. The ability the spin a ball depends on years of release point feel, it's not like a slider or changeup that pitchers can learn in the ranks.

 

With that in mind, it is somewhat concerning that evaluators lack confidence in Greene’s curveball and this might give an organization pause before pulling the trigger at 1-1. In the draft room, Twins staff must be contemplating this and balancing that with the fact that both Vanderbilt’s Wright and Louisville’s McKay already have curves that have been described as plus pitches. Baseball America said that Wright’s curve has been “showing tight spin and late vertical break early and often...the pitch has plus potential.” MLB.com’s draft profile said that McKay’s was “a consistent plus pitch”.

 

The Twins war room will have to weigh this carefully. There is no doubting his makeup and talent. The real question is, do the Twins have enough confidence in Greene to develop a secondary pitch, anything to take pressure off of throwing his fastball all day long?

 

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[magiklair]

Greene or McKay for me...

[brvama]

 

Up until a month or so ago I thought Greene would be the best selection. Since that time I have settle on Wright and then McKay for the reasons you state here - the secondary pitches. I am not as enthralled with triple digit FB as many are. There are many HOFers and others that were excellent pitchers without the super speed. Also, as the hitters improve the speed becomes less an obstacle. So the secondary pitches are very important. And I just can't ignore the injury concerns for a hard throwing HS pitcher.   

 

I'd be fine with any of the big 3, but I would likely go with less risk and higher floor of Wrigh or McKay. OTOH, I wouldn't mind Greene as a SS if the scouts thikg he has a high ceiling there. Wonder if he could be a ARod type position player? Clean, of course.

 

It is going to be a fun and interesting draft, for sure. Should have lots of comments.

 

[jun]

It's going to be McKay.

[darin617]

I hope the Twins make the "right" decision and take Kyle Wright..

Not a fan of taking a high school pitcher who relies heavily on his great fastball. If he doesn't have a 2nd or 3rd plus pitch you never know if he could develop one. The Twins need to be smart and pass on Greene. As for Brendan McKay I would feel the Twins would chose wrong on whether to be a pitcher or hitter.

[Darius]

For those worried about Greene's injury risk causing them to lean Wright (which may or may not be warranted), something of note:

 

Wright threw 130 pitches in less than 7 innings last night in the college World Series Super Regional (credit to Gleeman & the Geek). 130. Who knows how many other times that's happened during his Vandy career.

 

Not only that, but he got pretty thoroughly knocked around.

 

I still don't know how you can pass on this kid (Greene). Sure there's risk, but at some point you have to take one. Wright and McKay don't appear to be high-end pitchers, more like middle of the rotation types. You can get that type of guy at pick 35 and/or 37, which they also own (that's roughly where they picked up Berrios).

[Parker Hageman]

Wright threw 130 pitches in less than 7 innings last night in the college World Series Super Regional (credit to Gleeman & the Geek). 130. Who knows how many other times that's happened during his Vandy career.

 

 

For pitchers in the regional, 130 or more is regular. Coaches use caution during the season and then let the leash off for the postseason. I will add, Vanderbilt has developed one of the best pitching programs in college baseball today. 

 

I don't necessarily enjoy Kris Benson as a comp either. 

 

[drjim]

For those worried about Greene's injury risk causing them to lean Wright (which may or may not be warranted), something of note:

 

Wright threw 130 pitches in less than 7 innings last night in the college World Series Super Regional (credit to Gleeman & the Geek). 130. Who knows how many other times that's happened during his Vandy career.

 

Not only that, but he got pretty thoroughly knocked around.

 

I still don't know how you can pass on this kid (Greene). Sure there's risk, but at some point you have to take one. Wright and McKay don't appear to be high-end pitchers, more like middle of the rotation types. You can get that type of guy at pick 35 and/or 37, which they also own (that's roughly where they picked up Berrios).

Boxscore said 120. That's a little high, but on full rest it's not a massive red flag.

 

He shouldn't have went out for the 7th, and if he didn't his line would be much more respectable. This one game would be a silly reason to pass on him.

[drjim]

For pitchers in the regional, 130 or more is regular. Coaches use caution during the season and then let the leash off for the postseason. I will add, Vanderbilt has developed one of the best pitching programs in college baseball today.

 

I don't necessarily enjoy Kris Benson as a comp either.

 

https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/874067006957531136

If Benson didn't get hurt in his third season (after pitching too much year 2) we would think differently about his career.

[Parker Hageman]

 

If Benson didn't get hurt in his third season (after pitching too much year 2) we would think differently about his career.

 

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts...

 

But yes, he was a highly thought of prospect. 

[yarnivek1972]

Almost everyone who I have ever heard with an opinion on the matter says that no one should throw a curve ball or slider until he is at least 16. So, it really isn't terribly surprising that few have it well developed at 18. And if they do, I would wonder how long he has been throwing a breaking ball and be concerned about that degree of wear on his young arm.

[drjim]

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts...

Also true that if the Twins pick Wright and he gets hurt it would look like a mediocre pick. Same with Greene.

 

I don't get your point with this comment.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Also true that if the Twins pick Wright and he gets hurt it would look like a mediocre pick. Same with Greene.

I don't get your point with this comment.

 

In both scenarios you are offering up hypotheticals so don't get your point with this comment either. 

[Parker Hageman]

 

Almost everyone who I have ever heard with an opinion on the matter says that no one should throw a curve ball or slider until he is at least 16. So, it really isn't terribly surprising that few have it well developed at 18. And if they do, I would wonder how long he has been throwing a breaking ball and be concerned about that degree of wear on his young arm.

 

Actually science has found that throwing a curveball is no more or less harmful than a fastball.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25553209

 

CONCLUSION:
Despite much debate in the baseball community about the curveball's safety in youth pitchers, limited biomechanical and most epidemiologic data do not indicate an increased risk of injury when compared with the fastball.

 

 

[markos]

How much does this matter for a 17-year-old? As a counterpoint, here is a writeup (paraphrased) from a Baseball America draft profile of another 17-year-old pitcher a few years back:

 

"The knock on X is the lack of a true secondary pitch. He pitches off his best weapon, a 92-94 mph fastball that has been up to 97 this spring. It has late life and finish. He has tried multiple grips and shapes with his breaking ball, and at times it has flashed a fringe-average pitch that has tilt and late snap at 81 mph. He doesn't repeat his release point well. His changeup is a below-average pitch that should improve when and if he throws it more often. Because of his size, athleticism and velocity, X is a surefire first-rounder."

 

That was the writeup for Madison Bumgarner.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/rankings/?rank=draft&year=2007
Bumgarner was in the big leagues two years after being drafted, and he has had an above-average slider and average curve.

 

As another datapoint, Clayton Kershaw definitely had a curveball going into the draft, but it wasn't so good at draft time to compel Baseball America to include him when listing the top HS tools in the draft. He had Best Fastball, but wasn't even listed for Best Breaking Ball, Best Command, or Closest To Majors.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/best-tools/2006/261350.html

 

So for me, I don't think it is necessary for a HS kid, particularly an uber-athletic 17-year-old, to have an above-average breaking ball already developed. You quoted Verducci as saying “[o]rganizations have learned that if someone does not show an aptitude to spin a baseball as an amateur, it’s foolish to expect him to acquire the skill.” My question: Does Greene show the aptitude and he is just missing consistency? 

 

My biggest concern about Greene isn't his breaking ball (or lack there of) but his lack of innings. While a player's stuff is probably the main component that will determine if a kid becomes an elite big league starter, durability should not be discounted. It is less so now than past eras, but you still need to make 30 starts and throw 180+ innings over 6 months. And we have next to zero information about how Greene's arm will hold up under that kind of work load. While still not a perfect demonstration, at least McKay and Wright have both shown the ability to manage a college schedule without much trouble.

[drjim]

How much does this matter for a 17-year-old? As a counterpoint, here is a writeup (paraphrased) from a Baseball America draft profile of another 17-year-old pitcher a few years back:

 

"The knock on X is the lack of a true secondary pitch. He pitches off his best weapon, a 92-94 mph fastball that has been up to 97 this spring. It has late life and finish. He has tried multiple grips and shapes with his breaking ball, and at times it has flashed a fringe-average pitch that has tilt and late snap at 81 mph. He doesn't repeat his release point well. His changeup is a below-average pitch that should improve when and if he throws it more often. Because of his size, athleticism and velocity, X is a surefire first-rounder."

 

That was the writeup for Madison Bumgarner.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/rankings/?rank=draft&year=2007

Bumgarner was in the big leagues two years after being drafted, and he has had an above-average slider and average curve.

 

As another datapoint, Clayton Kershaw definitely had a curveball going into the draft, but it wasn't so good at draft time to compel Baseball America to include him when listing the top HS tools in the draft. He had Best Fastball, but wasn't even listed for Best Breaking Ball, Best Command, or Closest To Majors.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/best-tools/2006/261350.html

 

So for me, I don't think it is necessary for a HS kid, particularly an uber-athletic 17-year-old, to have an above-average breaking ball already developed. You quoted Verducci as saying “[o]rganizations have learned that if someone does not show an aptitude to spin a baseball as an amateur, it’s foolish to expect him to acquire the skill.” My question: Does Greene show the aptitude and he is just missing consistency?

 

My biggest concern about Greene isn't his breaking ball (or lack there of) but his lack of innings. While a player's stuff is probably the main component that will determine if a kid becomes an elite big league starter, durability should not be discounted. It is less so now than past eras, but you still need to make 30 starts and throw 180+ innings over 6 months. And we have next to zero information about how Greene's arm will hold up under that kind of work load. While still not a perfect demonstration, at least McKay and Wright have both shown the ability to manage a college schedule without much trouble.

Good word.

 

I'm not as concerned about the secondary pitches, but I do worry about the 100. He might be a freak, but that type of velocity seems like it would lead to breakdown.

 

But your second point seems to.be really key. It would seem he would spend much of next year at extended, followed by a half season of rookie ball. Then he would mobe up to Low A, likely with a late start, then if he was really good he would need a full season, possibly split between Hi A and AA. Then he would still need another half season before he would get to the bigs.

 

So if everthing goes as well as possible, both with health and performance, he would debut mid 2021 at the earliest. And that is assuming he can hold up for a season, which is far from certain.

 

Wright and McKay could easily debut middle of next year, and have shown some ability to log some innings.

 

Gore would be on a quicker schedule than Greene too.

[Parker Hageman]

So for me, I don't think it is necessary for a HS kid, particularly an uber-athletic 17-year-old, to have an above-average breaking ball already developed.

 

 

I think it matters to an organization like the Twins because it could affect his development timeline. Look no further than Kohl Stewart as an example of someone with a plus-fastball and lack of quality secondary pitches.

 

The question for me becomes, OK, where is his breaking stuff at right now. That video was a flash of a good pitch, imo. Is that someone that happens once in a blue moon when he throws it? What are evaluators not liking specifically?

 

As far as innings thrown goes, he likely threw around 80-100 innings in a given calendar year between HS and club baseball. That is comparable to most college starters. All amateur arms need to build in the system. 

[Thrylos]

Gee.

The "Sports Illustrated profile" was written by their basketball writer.  Mercy.

 

Greene is a good story.  The fact is that McKay's numbers against major College competition are better than Greene's against Catholic High School competition, this season.

 

Cut it any way you want to, but facts are facts.

 

And if a guy can help the Twins next season or the one after that, when Sano and Kepler and Berrios and Polanco and Buxton etc will still be around, I'd take that over a guy who would need to spend 4 seasons in the minors trying to develop secondary stuff, or not.

 

(*)  The best prep pitcher I have ever seen pitching was Doc Gooden and his best pitch was his curveball.  And he made it fast, and would had made it further, if not for the drugs...   Greene is nowhere near that level by any means.

[Rhino and Compass]

Perhaps it is my long history of following the Twins ass they have tried to develop pitchers, only to see their elbows unravel, but I am terrified of prospects lauded for their velocity. I think an important element to any fastball pitcher is how much movement there is on that fastball, and how well you can play off of it (i.e. Johan and his change).

 

Ultimately, I am hoping that Falvey's accolades as a development guy are well warranted, and down the road we are discussing some of the later round picks from this draft just as much as the top end talent. 

[old nurse]

My take away from some of the comments here and elsewhere would be to get a spin rate on a curve ball is like a god given talent. You can refine the mechanics of the pitcher to make it more consistent, but you can't teach how to throw it at 3000 rpm.

 

FWIW and to confuse people

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/1/14766552/2017-mlb-draft-profile-hunter-greene-rhp-sherman-oaks-california

 

One of the well respected writers of minor league ball says his curve can be a plus pitch.

[twinsfanstreif]

No mention of Gore? He has a legit curve. If I were in charge he is who I would go with. I'm not a fan of either Wright or McKay and I'm on the fence about Greene

[KirbyDome89]

1) His curveball isn't at the level of the college pitchers they're considering but he's also three years younger than them and by all accounts an elite athlete. I don't know how we can be certain he won't be able to develop secondary pitches that rate as a plus. It would be interesting to see how the secondary pitches for Wright and McKay were rated when they were coming out of high school as a comparison.

 

2) All pitching carries risk of injury. What about the fact that McKay and Wright have three extra years of "wear and tear," on their arms compared to Greene. I don't see that as a reason to knock their prospect status just as I don't see a reason to knock Greene because he throws too hard. 

 

I'm fine with whoever they draft as long as they take who they think has the chance to be the BEST player. I understand the desire for pitching as the current staff is a mess and if the player with the fastest track is also the most talented then I'm be ecstatic, but I don't want to see the Twins value a higher floor and faster track over a higher ceiling. A mid rotation starter in a couple years is nice but a true rotation ace in 4 is better. They can trade for and sign mid rotation pitchers, they aren't signing aces and if they're trading for one the cost will be severe. 

[darin617]

The best case scenario for the Twins is to take Wright or McKay. If you have looked at some of the mock drafts lately it would be smart for the Twins to sign McKay if he is willing to take a huge discount from the max value offered for the #1 pick. That way the Twins could have more money for their other picks and could come out smelling like a rose in the end.

 

[curt1965]

I'd go with Gore, too, especially if they could save some money to use with their second and third picks.

[Parker Hageman]

 

No mention of Gore? He has a legit curve. If I were in charge he is who I would go with. I'm not a fan of either Wright or McKay and I'm on the fence about Greene

 

No disrespect meant for Gore. I just haven't seen strong ties to him like I had Greene, Wright or McKay. 

[Parker Hageman]

I was happy to ready tonight that the Twins were using their Trackman radar to capture data on Greene during his bullpen session at Target Field. From Lavelle's recent article:

'

"We had TrackMan on during his bullpen here so we can look at the data, see what the metrics are," said Sean Johnson, the Twins scouting director. "His spin rate, see how his changeup looks. How his breaking ball looks on the computer on TrackMan and add it on to what we see with our visuals."

 

 

Among other things, that should help them establish a pretty good baseline of where his curveball is at. Very refreshing to read that. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

Actually science has found that throwing a curveball is no more or less harmful than a fastball.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25553209

Very interesting stuff.  Thanks!

[HitInAPinch]

 

I was happy to ready tonight that the Twins were using their Trackman radar to capture data on Greene during his bullpen session at Target Field. From Lavelle's recent article:

'

 

Among other things, that should help them establish a pretty good baseline of where his curveball is at. Very refreshing to read that. 

A little further down in that article:

 

"Greene, a Los Angeles suburban school standout, has the highest profile because of his blazing fastball — but indications are that the Twins have discovered some concerns as they did their due diligence on him, like the quality of his breaking pitches."

 

So, something (or maybe more?) that we've already read about Greene.  

 

Sooo....  my question(s) is/are this:   

 

1.  Do the Twins select a pitcher with a development schedule that aligns more with the development of the current MLB team:

2. Or, do they look at the higher upside of Greene and say, "yeah, we can wait for that".

 

I can really see this both ways.  If guys like Gonslaves and Felix Jorge are on that MLB path, I'd be inclined to take Greene.  If not, well I've read that the Twins are interested in McKay.

 

Edit:  That's some pretty good depth on that curve.  I'm leaning more towards Greene...

Edited June 12, 2017 by HitInAPinch

[AlwaysinModeration]

Pretty amazing that, here we are, on draft day, and we really don't know which way the Twins are going. I don't think it would be a surprise if the choice is Greene, Wright, McKay, or Gore. Four pitchers. Doesn't seem like Falvey has the Theo theory of no pitchers, but if he did, Lewis and Willihammer's favorite Adell would be in the mix.

 

Whoever it is, I hope the kid

a) turns out to be best player in the draft and

allows them to pick someone with top-15/20 talent with the 35/37 pick.

 

That's all I ask.

[nytwinsfan]

If they take McKay (rather than Wright) I hope they at least use the seeming consensus that Wright has a much bigger upside than McKay to get him to sign underslot and then sign some serious upside prepsters at 35 and 37.