Article: Ervin Santana: To Trade Or Not To Trade?

[TKGuy]

the longer the Twins remain in 1st, the harder it is to trade Santana, etc. While most of us here probably fall on the side of trading ESan, ownership may think they owe fans a run At the playoffs

[akmanak]

It is not just about pitching on why this team is very lucky to be where they are. Our batting ranks 15th in average and we have no one who is batting above .300.

 

With an overall team ERA that ranks 23rd in the league this team is just not that good and like some have mention they have been lucky. You will see a steep drop off regardless if you keep Santana or Dozier. Which is why you trade them now in the hopes of getting some decent prospects.

[beetlebum71]

For me, it's not about "what would the fans think?" of trading away your ace in a season in which you're competing for the division crown.  It's about "what are the players going to think?"  They're out there busting their humps everyday to hang around this race, and then Falvey up and trades the leader of their pitching staff.  He'd basically be telling them that he doesn't think they're good enough to win this year, despite the fact that they're currently doing it.  Whether or not he'd be right is essentially irrelevant.  That's a good way to lose a clubhouse.  When you start giving indications that you don't believe in your team, they'll bail on you.  

 

As long as this team is in 1st or within spitting distance of it, they need to keep the band together and look to add, not subtract.  

 

Lastly, I think people in here are overvaluing Santana just a little.  This is a guy who cleared waivers last August.  Teams could have claimed him and maybe gotten him for free.  No one did.  His value has probably increased, but I also believe that teams are skeptical of him keeping up this pace.  In their minds, they're trading for the Ervin we've seen for the past 10 years, not the one we've seen for the past 2 months.  Players are only worth what someone is willing to pay, as we saw this winter with Dozier.  IMO, he's more valuable to the team by pitching for them than he is through a trade for a couple B-level prospects.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

Lastly, I think people in here are overvaluing Santana just a little.  This is a guy who cleared waivers last August.  Teams could have claimed him and maybe gotten him for free.  No one did.  

 

I think you may be wrong on this point, unless you are referring to trade waivers, which is a totally different concept as the Twins would have pulled him back immediately if a deal wasn't reached.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It is not just about pitching on why this team is very lucky to be where they are. Our batting ranks 15th in average and we have no one who is batting above .300.

.300 is an arbitrary number and doesn't mean much. In today's game, all batting averages are suppressed. As of today, there are only 27 qualified players in all of baseball with an average of .300 or higher.

 

The Twins have two players in the top 50 in batting average, Sano and Mauer.

 

But batting average doesn't tell us much on its own. The Twins are sixth in the American League in team OPS, which tells us a lot more about their offensive capabilities. They're a slightly above average offense with the ability to get into the top five in the AL when all is said and done.

[mlhouse]

 

For me, it's not about "what would the fans think?" of trading away your ace in a season in which you're competing for the division crown.  It's about "what are the players going to think?"  They're out there busting their humps everyday to hang around this race, and then Falvey up and trades the leader of their pitching staff.  He'd basically be telling them that he doesn't think they're good enough to win this year, despite the fact that they're currently doing it.  Whether or not he'd be right is essentially irrelevant.  That's a good way to lose a clubhouse.  When you start giving indications that you don't believe in your team, they'll bail on you.  

 

As long as this team is in 1st or within spitting distance of it, they need to keep the band together and look to add, not subtract.  

 

Lastly, I think people in here are overvaluing Santana just a little.  This is a guy who cleared waivers last August.  Teams could have claimed him and maybe gotten him for free.  No one did.  His value has probably increased, but I also believe that teams are skeptical of him keeping up this pace.  In their minds, they're trading for the Ervin we've seen for the past 10 years, not the one we've seen for the past 2 months.  Players are only worth what someone is willing to pay, as we saw this winter with Dozier.  IMO, he's more valuable to the team by pitching for them than he is through a trade for a couple B-level prospects.

 

 

They are not good enough to win it this year unless you think winning a "division" crown were the 2nd place finisher is a 500 team.  Squeaking out a division crown with a totally mediocre record is not much to shoot for and we have seen what that meant in the past.  We are on a streak of 9 consecutive playoff losses, and three consecutive playoff sweeps.  In our previous Central Division glory, our playoff record is 3-19, with six consecutive playoff series losses and we have won 1,1,1,0,0,0 in those series.  What our ownership demonstrated in that run is that when spending another $10-20 million would have made them real competitors they were not going to do it.  

 

Next, on attendance, right now the Twins attendance is worse than last year at 22,414 per game.  This is what years of mismanagement will deliver for you.  So, using attendance as a reason to make or not make baseball moves is a poor argument. 

 

While I advocate trading Santana, and Dozier, if the deal is right that isn't the biggest issue right now.  Those are just baseball moves that could be seen as Selling HIgh, rather than waiting for the team to be out of contention and then Selling Low.  

 

What is more important is clearlng out the deadwood and having the courage to bring up the younger prospects in the system.  Hughes and Santiago need to be put out to pasture, traded if they can be moved.  I think the same for Kyle GIbson too.  I would trade Craig Breslow to a team looking for a left hander out of the bullpen.

 

I bring up Stephen Gonsalves to take the 4th rotation spot.  If I draft Kyle Wright, he is on the major league roster from the day he signs otherwise draft Hunter Greene.  I get Trevor Hilderberger up to replace Matt Belisle and David Hurlbut to replace Breslow.

 

What will probably happen is just what happened when we finally recalled J.J. Berrios.  They will be better performers than the crap we had.  

[USAFChief]

They are not good enough to win it this year unless you think winning a "division" crown were the 2nd place finisher is a 500 team.  Squeaking out a division crown with a totally mediocre record is not much to shoot for and we have seen what that meant in the past.  We are on a streak of 9 consecutive playoff losses, and three consecutive playoff sweeps.  In our previous Central Division glory, our playoff record is 3-19, with six consecutive playoff series losses and we have won 1,1,1,0,0,0 in those series.  What our ownership demonstrated in that run is that when spending another $10-20 million would have made them real competitors they were not going to do it.  

 

Next, on attendance, right now the Twins attendance is worse than last year at 22,414 per game.  This is what years of mismanagement will deliver for you.  So, using attendance as a reason to make or not make baseball moves is a poor argument. 

 

While I advocate trading Santana, and Dozier, if the deal is right that isn't the biggest issue right now.  Those are just baseball moves that could be seen as Selling HIgh, rather than waiting for the team to be out of contention and then Selling Low.  

 

What is more important is clearlng out the deadwood and having the courage to bring up the younger prospects in the system.  Hughes and Santiago need to be put out to pasture, traded if they can be moved.  I think the same for Kyle GIbson too.  I would trade Craig Breslow to a team looking for a left hander out of the bullpen.

 

I bring up Stephen Gonsalves to take the 4th rotation spot.  If I draft Kyle Wright, he is on the major league roster from the day he signs otherwise draft Hunter Greene.  I get Trevor Hilderberger up to replace Matt Belisle and David Hurlbut to replace Breslow.

 

What will probably happen is just what happened when we finally recalled J.J. Berrios.  They will be better performers than the crap we had.

 

When they first recalled Berrios he WASN'T better than the crap we had.

[howieramone2]

 

It is not just about pitching on why this team is very lucky to be where they are. Our batting ranks 15th in average and we have no one who is batting above .300.

With an overall team ERA that ranks 23rd in the league this team is just not that good and like some have mention they have been lucky. You will see a steep drop off regardless if you keep Santana or Dozier. Which is why you trade them now in the hopes of getting some decent prospects.

I have time to wait and see this steep drop off. 32-26, first place.

[mlhouse]

 

When they first recalled Berrios he WASN'T better than the crap we had.

 

 

Sure, I guess.  But lets let these young guys get those games out of their system sooner, rather than later.  

 

I get that we want to pretend we are a contending team this year and making the playoffs might seem to be something special after all of that futility.  But to postpone the proper development of this rebuild will just keep the system going, like it has for all fo these years.  

[Don Walcott]

I'm hoping we think big and support this surprisingly good team. Maybe we can finish off the Giants today, who are now 16 back of the Rockies, 13 back of the DBacks, and still without MadBum for a while. Then, see if they'll dump Cueto's salary on us for cheap.

[beetlebum71]

The Cardinals squeaked in to the playoffs with 83 wins a few years ago and ended up winning the series. Chip, chair, chance. You never give up on a season until you have to. This team is far from perfect, but it still has a chance at October baseball. That's a valuable thing.

[beetlebum71]

I think you may be wrong on this point, unless you are referring to trade waivers, which is a totally different concept as the Twins would have pulled him back immediately if a deal wasn't reached.

I was talking about revokable waivers, yes. It's obviously different than outright waivers, but guys get claimed off trade waivers all the time. Santana did not. Sure, the Twins would have pulled him back if they couldn't work out a deal, but the fact that they didn't have to make those decisions at all is telling. As I said, his value is likely somewhat higher now, but I don't think anyone is giving up two legit prospects who are close to ML ready. That colors my opinion that keeping him is best. If you can get a top 50 prospect who can step into the rotation next year and another high-end pitcher thrown in, then do it. It's never going to happen, though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sure, I guess. But lets let these young guys get those games out of their system sooner, rather than later.

 

I get that we want to pretend we are a contending team this year and making the playoffs might seem to be something special after all of that futility. But to postpone the proper development of this rebuild will just keep the system going, like it has for all fo these years.

What young guys? The Twins have zero legit starting pitching prospects in AAA and two decent, though unspectacular, guys in AA. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if neither of them throws a pitch in MLB this season because they're not ready.

 

No one has been or will be blocked for the foreseeable future. The team is starting Nik Turley today, for crying out loud.

[jimmer]

 

What young guys? The Twins have zero legit starting pitching prospects in AAA and two decent, though unspectacular, guys in AA. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if neither of them throws a pitch in MLB this season because they're not ready.

No one has been or will be blocked for the foreseeable future. The team is starting Nik Turley today, for crying out loud.

That's what happens with poor drafting,  misguided drafting strategy (let's draft a bunch of relievers and try to convert them to starters, we so smart) and poor pitching development.

 

BTW, is anyone even THINKING Kohl Stewart is going to amount to anything in the majors at this point?

Edited June 11, 2017 by jimmer

[DocBauer]

Going to repeat a couple things I've said before and echo a couple thoughts from others here, but I really want to weight in on this topic again after reading and reflecting more.

 

The position players on this team are a young nucleus playing well and still growing and developing and learning to win together. The team still needs help on the mound and we all know this. But unless someone out there...Astros, Yankees, etc...have a significant injury in a season in which they truly think they are a contender, we won't get the overpay in prospects we need to make the trade work. In other words, a top young SP ready to come up and contribute. So we trade away a leader and quality pitcher with life left in his arm when we need pitching and effectively punt on the season. This just doesn't make sense to me in the short term or the long term.

 

This off season, the Twins absolutely have the resources to sign a quality FA SP to add to the staff. If there truly isn't someone interested available, they may have to go the trade route and offer up some quality young prospects, possibly a current rostered player. I would prefer the FA route as it allows the system to maintain as many good young players as possible for promotion and later trades of such, or the ML player they might replace. Even if said Santana suddenly regressed to the status of solid, quality #3 starter, combined with said FA and Berrios, we have a nice threesome to start our rotation with. Mejia, hopefully, continues to develop and gives us a 4th reliable, and young, starter.

 

Who is the 5th starter? I don't know. Hughes? Slegers? Gibson? A FA reclamation project? Gonsalves? But I'd sure rather worry about a 5th starter than 2 or 3 open spots.

 

Yes, the pen also needs help. But it's completely reasonable, IMO, that just a little better luck on the health front could see 2 or 3 young arms getting their shot the second half of this season. Combine those with what is already there, possibly a better Pressly, maybe a quality FA, and a much strongef pen could easily be in place.

 

I just think this competitive team is starting to come together. Unless there is an overpay, I just feel moving Santana sets the team back.

[gunnarthor]

This is off topic but HS pitchers - like Stewart - are risks. Stewart, Kolek, Aiken, Bell, Tate are just a few of the recent HS arms taken in the top 10 that look bad. It is what it is. Would people look at that draft differently if Stewart were the 4th rounder and Gonsalves the 1st rounder?

[kab21]

 

Fans care about many things. In any case, it's pretty difficult to tell most fans that trading away your best pitcher is about winning.

As long as the team is winning this is something you don't do. Keeping a very good pitcher that is signed for next year is not mortgaging the future as some seem to be claiming. Perhaps Ervin falls off and isn't even a mid-rotation starter next season but that is just guesswork.

Of note - Ervin should only be considered a very good 3 (or poor man's 2) that is enjoying a career season right now. The other GMs know his career and his age and that will be reflected in the package of prospects.

[KirbyDome89]

 

With Santana and Berrios pitching games 1,2-6,7, yes, I could see a deep playoff run. And as long as there was a competent bp, maybe we could get another win in there. However, getting to the playoffs requires more than a 1-2 punch in starting pitching. But without Santana there is no hope of either. As the team stands now, we need him to get us there.

I agree, getting to the playoffs does require more than a 1-2 punch, which is exactly what they should be looking to improve upon in return for Santana. 

 

I said the same thing above; you're banking on Santana continuing to pitch at this level, Berrios and Mejia can't have any hiccups as young pitchers, Santiago has to completely turn it around, they'll need serious contributions for Hughes/Gibson/name your 5th starter, and that dumpster fire that is the bullpen has to suddenly become competent. That seems like a lot that has to break the Twin's way. 

 

 

[jokin]

 

 Santiago, whom you seem to love, is going to have to turn it around,

 

 

 

 I have no idea what this phrase means.... sarcasm?

 

In point of fact (a point that you seem to have missed badly), Santiago is my least favorite Twins SP. The point I made was in response to another poster. A poster who wanted to acquire two solid, cost-controlled SPs in exchange for the aging Santana, and dumping his salary in hopes of rebuilding.

 

The odds that you are going to steal 2 SPs from some team that are major league dependable and good to go for the next 3-6 yrs in exchange for dumping Santana aren't very high. Face it, virtually all MLB teams have the same info, are in the same situation with concern to pitching depth and set the same value on pitching arms. Hasn't every team also figured out that Santana is aging and pitching above his median #s? And knowing what we know, that they are perfectly willing to risk the turn-into-pumpkin regression that you confidently predict is imminently looming? 

 

With this common knowledge around baseball, the Twins are perhaps more likely, even if they're lucky, to end up with two more Santiago-types, as opposed to the pie-in-the-sky hope by the "perpetual rebuilder" supporters, that the Twins will somehow get a #1/2 and a # 3 (or  say, two #2s) from the same trade in question.

 

If you are aware of another surreptitious-sure-thing Jake Arrieta-type who is available out there in exchange for Santana, I'm all ears.

 

How about instead of focusing on the Twins dumping salary and continuing another round of rebuild, finding teams that aren't in 1st place (like the Twins), but perhaps on or near the bottom and going nowhere, and then trying to trade the remaining prospects (out of 4 SS and 4 MLB Top 100-potential arms) with them for "established, solid and cost-controlled pitchers" to bolster the current pitching depth? One of Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Julio Teheran at the front end and one of the cheaper 2018 FA types destined for potential salary-dump- like Clayton Richard, Alex Cobb, Jason Vargas.... to bolster the back-end of the rotation.

Edited June 12, 2017 by jokin

[kab21]

 

I agree, getting to the playoffs does require more than a 1-2 punch, which is exactly what they should be looking to improve upon in return for Santana. 

 

I said the same thing above; you're banking on Santana continuing to pitch at this level, Berrios and Mejia can't have any hiccups as young pitchers, Santiago has to completely turn it around, they'll need serious contributions for Hughes/Gibson/name your 5th starter, and that dumpster fire that is the bullpen has to suddenly become competent. That seems like a lot that has to break the Twin's way. 

You're banking on the lottery ticket (prospect) that the Twins get back becoming part of the 1-2 punch. That is the definition of needing a lot of things to break the Twins way. 

 

In summary

Nobody is against trading Santana if a GM puts a Francis Martes level prospect out there (upside and near MLB ready). 

 

Nobody is against trading Santana (for less than the above) if the Twins are 3 games under .500 due to a relapse in the next month and a half. But opinion is split on if to trade him when the Twins are winning.

[jokin]

 

 

That's what happens with poor drafting,  misguided drafting strategy (let's draft a bunch of relievers and try to convert them to starters, we so smart) and poor pitching development.

 

BTW, is anyone even THINKING Kohl Stewart is going to amount to anything in the majors at this point?

 

I have hope for Gonsalves and Jorge, and possibly Jax and even Wells.

 

Stewart's situation doesn't look good at the moment, but that could change for the better with an improved developmental approach from new management that come from pitching development backgrounds- the talent is there for Stewart, but not much baseball instinct in a football-first talent. The Twins inability to turn on his talent to this point is pretty telling.

[jokin]

 

 

You're banking on the lottery ticket (prospect) that the Twins get back becoming part of the 1-2 punch. That is the definition of needing a lot of things to break the Twins way. 

 

In summary

Nobody is against trading Santana if a GM puts a Francis Martes level prospect out there (upside and near MLB ready). 

 

Nobody is against trading Santana (for less than the above) if the Twins are 3 games under .500 due to a relapse in the next month and a half. But opinion is split on if to trade him when the Twins are winning.

 

Thread-Winner (clarifier)

[jokin]

 

Yes, any pitcher acquired will the current version of Santiago or worse, and trading Ervin will clearly result in another 3 years of terrible baseball....

 

 

Clearly quite possible, "yes".

[KirbyDome89]

 

 I have no idea what this phrase means.... sarcasm?

 

In point of fact (a point that you seem to have missed badly), Santiago is my least favorite Twins SP. The point I made was in response to another poster. A poster who wanted to acquire two solid, cost-controlled SPs in exchange for the aging Santana, and dumping his salary in hopes of rebuilding.

 

The odds that you are going to steal 2 SPs from some team that are major league dependable and good to go for the next 3-6 yrs in exchange for dumping Santana aren't very high. Face it, virtually all MLB teams have the same info, are in the same situation with concern to pitching depth and set the same value on pitching arms. Hasn't every team also figured out that Santana is aging and pitching above his median #s? And knowing what we know, that they are perfectly willing to risk the turn-into-pumpkin regression that you confidently predict is imminently looming? 

 

With this common knowledge around baseball, the Twins are perhaps more likely, even if they're lucky, to end up with two more Santiago-types, as opposed to the pie-in-the-sky hope by the "perpetual rebuilder" supporters, that the Twins will somehow get a #1/2 and a # 3 (or  say, two #2s) from the same trade in question.

 

If you are aware of another surreptitious-sure-thing Jake Arrieta-type who is available out there in exchange for Santana, I'm all ears.

 

How about instead of focusing on the Twins dumping salary and continuing another round of rebuild, finding teams that aren't in 1st place (like the Twins), but perhaps on or near the bottom and going nowhere, and then trying to trade the remaining prospects (out of 4 SS and 4 MLB Top 100-potential arms) with them for "established, solid and cost-controlled pitchers" to bolster the current pitching depth? One of Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Julio Teheran at the front end and one of the cheaper 2018 FA types destined for potential salary-dump- like Clayton Richard, Alex Cobb, Jason Vargas.... to bolster the back-end of the rotation.

Great catch on the sarcasm. 

 

Show me where I said he would fetch two front of the rotation starters. Please, quote that line for me. Pro tip; you won't find it. A utility IFer brought back the guy starting games in the 4 spot right now but apparently it's crazy to think Santana would bring back a near MLB ready mid rotation starter and another prospect who has a chance to be an average MLB pitcher. But sure, that's pie in the sky.

 

So you want to dump what is left of the farm to rent a SP in the hopes that a band aid fixes the disaster that is the pitching staff. They'll assume a starting contract via trade, bring in another via FA, and then what about the bullpen? Will they just go on a spending spree there as well? So basically they'll do something they never do and become legitimate players in FA? But it's pie in the sky to think they can get two prospects for Santana. Riiiiight.....

[jokin]

 

Yeah, clearly myself and others who wouldn't oppose the trade are satisfied with the past six seasons.

 

Great analysis.

 

 

 

"Thank you."

 

To end my flippancy, myself and many others on this thread have made it extremely clear that consideration of a Santana trade is clearly in the Twins best interest if/when it becomes obvious that their weaknesses have caught up with them and their luck has run out. That time has not come yet, and there are still measures the team can take to increase their chances of making the playoffs, without significantly jeopardizing the future.

 

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

You're banking on the lottery ticket (prospect) that the Twins get back becoming part of the 1-2 punch. That is the definition of needing a lot of things to break the Twins way. 

 

In summary

Nobody is against trading Santana if a GM puts a Francis Martes level prospect out there (upside and near MLB ready). 

 

Nobody is against trading Santana (for less than the above) if the Twins are 3 games under .500 due to a relapse in the next month and a half. But opinion is split on if to trade him when the Twins are winning.

Berrios isn't a front of the rotation starter right now, and Santana, apart from this stretch, certainly isn't either. I'm not saying they're getting two potential aces, and I was clear about that in my OP. 

 

This isn't a team with a couple imperfections that can be addressed at the deadline. This bullpen and part of the starting staff is atrocious right now. The organization has shown no willingness to be active in upper level FAs, and the minor league system isn't brimming with pitching talent. I'm not saying it's an easy decision or sell, but they desperately need pitching help and trading veterans who are over performing is one of the best ways to provide that. 

[kab21]

 

Berrios isn't a front of the rotation starter right now, and Santana, apart from this stretch, certainly isn't either. I'm not saying they're getting two potential aces, and I was clear about that in my OP. 

 

This isn't a team with a couple imperfections that can be addressed at the deadline. This bullpen and part of the starting staff is atrocious right now. The organization has shown no willingness to be active in upper level FAs, and the minor league system isn't brimming with pitching talent. I'm not saying it's an easy decision or sell, but they desperately need pitching help and trading veterans who are over performing is one of the best ways to provide that. 

Nobody is saying to trade the farm system for a rental. The argument is that you don't take an overachieving team and trade one of its most important pieces when they are competing. That is a horrible precedent for both the fans and the players.

 

Are you saying that the Twins will only get back an alright prospect for Santana now? Why is that worth it?

 

Additionally nearly everyone at the time of the Mejia/Nunez trade was like 'Wow, we got that for Nunez!' Using that trade to measure what could be offered for Santana is futile.

 

The Twins also have new management at the top. In addition to that they have the core (mostly offense and Berrios) that looks like it is getting ready to compete (and currently is). For the last 5 years they were cellar dwellers without a young core. Usually teams (most teams) don't go out and sign top FA's at that point in a rebuild. Situations have changed so I wouldn't make a statement as definitive as yours (not going to spend on top FA's).

Edited June 12, 2017 by kab21

[KirbyDome89]

 

"Thank you."

 

To end my flippancy, myself and many others on this thread have made it extremely clear that consideration of a Santana trade is clearly in the Twins best interest if/when it becomes obvious that their weaknesses have caught up with them and their luck has run out. That time has not come yet, and there are still measures the team can take to increase their chances of making the playoffs, without significantly jeopardizing the future.

 

Isn't ignoring weaknesses because "they're winning and their luck hasn't run out yet," a big part of the disaster that was last season? This team would be much better off if they addressed problems early instead of waiting until the need to do so became painfully obvious. 

 

Uhh... that's your argument that I've refuted, not mine. See the " "?

 

You refuted it?

 

Why the consternation over trading him? If you think he'll continue to pitch like he is I can at least understand the desire to keep him, but if you're agreeing that he is prime for regression then why the uproar at the prospect of a trade? If he regresses, as you believe, what little chance this team does have to be competitive in the postseason, let along make it there, is gone. So why hold onto him?  

[beckmt]

I have more issues with the pen.  Twins are now plugging in fillins to the rotation, but today still had a chance to win starting the bottom of the 7th.  We need to get some of the kids up here and stabilize the pen, before our chances are blown away.  Then you can make decisions on the path forward, to buy or sell.  But give this club a chance.

[beckmt]

Still feel to be competitive starting next year Twins have to sign a #1 or #2 starter, who can take the team further down the road toward the playoffs.  Twins have plenty of money coming off the books in the next 2 years and people do not start to get expensive until 2020.  Window should be open.