Article: Ervin Santana: To Trade Or Not To Trade?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Dozier is not all the expendable though, at least not until mid next year.

 

They will have a little money to sign a decent free agent starter. You can probably roll with Santana, FA, Berrios, Mejia, and then one of Hughes/May/Gonsalves/Romero out of spring training. Gibson might even rebound enough to make it worthwhile to tender him a contract.

Dozier isn't fully expendable but he's the closest thing to expendable the Twins currently have on the roster. Polanco and Escobar won't be great but they probably won't kill you, either.

 

And Gordon is playing like he really wants a September cup of coffee. If Gordon moves to Rochester and continues dominating, he's going to force the issue some time in 2018, even possibly Opening Day.

[Doomtints]

 

Dozier is not all the expendable though, at least not until mid next year.

 

Can the Twins win without Dozier? I think they can. This makes him expendable in my view.

 

How much worse do you think the Twins would be without him?

[Vanimal46]

 

Few people want to trade Dozier but when your rotation includes Gibson and Turley and your MI depth includes Escobar and Adrianza in addition to a top prospect in AA. If I can land a good SP'ing prospect or two for Dozier then I would seriously consider the deal.

 

The problem is what has changed since last winter in the trade market for 2B? If only one team was interested and set the price at De Leon, who else is going to pay more when there hasn't been a significant injury to a star 2B? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

that's a reasonable stance, and it is hard to argue against it. I just don't love the options this year or next, unless Gonsalves and another SP are good, in which case you don't need Santana as much, and Dozier is maybe redundant.

There is some hope for 2018. Gonsalves and Romero profile as decent prospects.

 

But my eye is really on Thorpe. He's right back to his old self and killing it in Ft Myers. Given his age and former dominance, he could fast track through the system.

 

IMO, Thorpe is the only guy in the upper minors with a legit shot at being well above average. It's probably a stretch to envision seeing him before July of 2018 but we'll just have to see.

[Doomtints]

 

Few people want to trade Dozier but when your rotation includes Gibson and Turley and your MI depth includes Escobar and Adrianza in addition to a top prospect in AA. If I can land a good SP'ing prospect or two for Dozier then I would seriously consider the deal.

 

Gibson and Turley are not even the worst of the problem. You still have Santiago and Hughes to contend with.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is some hope for 2018. Gonsalves and Romero profile as decent prospects.

 

But my eye is really on Thorpe. He's right back to his old self and killing it in Ft Myers. Given his age and former dominance, he could fast track through the system.

 

IMO, Thorpe is the only guy in the upper minors with a legit shot at being well above average. It's probably a stretch to envision seeing him before July of 2018 but we'll just have to see.

 

But that's my point. If 2-3 of those guys are good, and Santana is only good for 1 more year, do you really need Santana at that point?

 

And, if none of them are good next year, then it won't matter if you have Santana or not at that point, imo.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But that's my point. If 2-3 of those guys are good, and Santana is only good for 1 more year, do you really need Santana at that point?

 

And, if none of them are good next year, then it won't matter if you have Santana or not at that point, imo.

But there's huge middle ground between none of those guys being good and all three of them being good.

 

What if both Gonsalves and Romero are good but one gets injured? What if one is good and the other bad?

 

The hit rate on groups of prospects is rarely binary.

 

Right now, I'm concerned with the 2017 Twins, a first place team. I do not dismantle pieces that virtually ensure they drop out of first place in a hurry. If/when they are no longer in first place, reevaluate. We still have roughly seven weeks until the deadline.

[Doomtints]

 

The problem is what has changed since last winter in the trade market for 2B? If only one team was interested and set the price at De Leon, who else is going to pay more when there hasn't been a significant injury to a star 2B? 

 

That's the past. There is no telling what will be on the table in the future.

Imagine if a baseball GM spent his time second guessing everything as you are now.

[kab21]

 

which is why you call him up in a year you aren't a real contender, to get him exposure.

 

Going to count on Gonsalves or anyone else next year from AA? Get them up this year to get a taste. Otherwise, you think they'll go with 2 rookies?

Prospect promotion shouldn't be determined by MLB need. I would feel confident that neither has developed enough to be ready to promote. For example, neither Gonsalves nor Romero have pitched a full season in AA yet and they aren't elite so skipping AAA would likely be a setback this year AND next year.

 

Optimistically they are the AAA pitchers that replace whichever injured/ineffective pitchers the Twins have next year. Promoting them doesn't really speed up that timetable. The Twins will likely have to look elsewhere to fill the rotation imo. But at least there is the prospect of a pair of pretty good prospects coming up at some point next season.

 

I would like to see one or both brought up in the bullpen at the end of the season to get an MLB taste and potentially add a useful arm down the stretch. I wish they had done this with Berrios also.

[Vanimal46]

 

Dozier isn't fully expendable but he's the closest thing to expendable the Twins currently have on the roster. Polanco and Escobar won't be great but they probably won't kill you, either.

 

And Gordon is playing like he really wants a September cup of coffee. If Gordon moves to Rochester and continues dominating, he's going to force the issue some time in 2018, even possibly Opening Day.

 

Trading Dozier for pitching makes the most sense for this organization, but it's starting to feel like fitting a square peg into a round hole... No teams are out there looking for 2B, and willing to give the Twins what they need to make something happen. 

 

The elephant in the room.... Gordon. Would teams value him more being a top ~50 ish prospect who can play multiple positions? Sure, it would hurt to lose Gordon, but it's probably more realistic to get the pitching this team needs if he's the feature piece. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Prospect promotion shouldn't be determined by MLB need. I would feel confident that neither has developed enough to be ready to promote. For example, neither Gonsalves nor Romero have pitched a full season in AA yet and they aren't elite so skipping AAA would likely be a setback this year AND next year.

 

Optimistically they are the AAA pitchers that replace whichever injured/ineffective pitchers the Twins have next year. Promoting them doesn't really speed up that timetable. The Twins will likely have to look elsewhere to fill the rotation imo. But at least there is the prospect of a pair of pretty good prospects coming up at some point next season.

 

I would like to see one or both brought up in the bullpen at the end of the season to get an MLB taste and potentially add a useful arm down the stretch. I wish they had done this with Berrios also.

 

so where do you get your 2nd or 3rd pitcher for next year, then?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Trading Dozier for pitching makes the most sense for this organization, but it's starting to feel like fitting a square peg into a round hole... No teams are out there looking for 2B, and willing to give the Twins what they need to make something happen. 

 

The elephant in the room.... Gordon. Would teams value him more being a top ~50 ish prospect who can play multiple positions? Sure, it would hurt to lose Gordon, but it's probably more realistic to get the pitching this team needs if he's the feature piece. 

 

Awful idea to trade a starting SS/2B for the next 7 years for a 1-2 year rental.

[kab21]

 

The problem is what has changed since last winter in the trade market for 2B? If only one team was interested and set the price at De Leon, who else is going to pay more when there hasn't been a significant injury to a star 2B? 

So far this is true but I am just saying that Dozier is somewhat expendable to the Twins while Ervin is at a position of dire need.

 

Alternatively they could trade Escobar to a team needing a SS. The potential for that trade isn't as high but maybe a team offers a Nunez/Mejia type of trade for him. I think Escobar is better than Nunez but I think the Giants overpayed for Nunez so maybe that balances it out.

[kab21]

 

so where do you get your 2nd or 3rd pitcher for next year, then?

Pitching is a big problem and that is why I don't trade Ervin away now (unless blown away). I don't try to make the problem even worse.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Awful idea to trade a starting SS/2B for the next 7 years for a 1-2 year rental.

 

Possibly. Just throwing out different ideas since with Dozier, I don't believe they're going to get a reasonable offer better than De Leon. And there's not a lot of other choices... Kepler, Gordon, and Buxton would be the people who would move the needle acquiring legit pitching. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

You hit on the biggest problem with this whole thought experiment.

 

A trade of Santana for prospects that are going to step in and perform sounds lovely, but breaks down when you have to match that an actual team with the actual assets that have and are willing to move, while also keeping in mind that there are other pitchers going to be floating out there.

Who are they signing in FA to solidify this staff?

How long does Ervin pitch like a Cy Young candidate?

Are we counting on him to pitch like this at 36 years of age in 2019?

Which direction does Mejia go?

Hughes and Gibson may potentially have to contribute as starters?

Romero and Gonsalves haven't spent a full season at AA yet but one may be starting the season with the Twins?

 

The questions and uncertainty that are causing a break down are abundant on both sides. 

[drjim]

 

Who are they signing in FA to solidify this staff?

How long does Ervin pitch like a Cy Young candidate?

Are we counting on him to pitch like this at 36 years of age in 2019?

Which direction does Mejia go?

Hughes and Gibson may potentially have to contribute as starters?

Romero and Gonsalves haven't spent a full season at AA yet but one may be starting the season with the Twins?

 

The questions and uncertainty that are causing a break down are abundant on both sides. 

 

Absolutely. But those are performance based things rather than theoretical trade returns that won't actually exist.

[drjim]

 

So far this is true but I am just saying that Dozier is somewhat expendable to the Twins while Ervin is at a position of dire need.

 

Alternatively they could trade Escobar to a team needing a SS. The potential for that trade isn't as high but maybe a team offers a Nunez/Mejia type of trade for him. I think Escobar is better than Nunez but I think the Giants overpayed for Nunez so maybe that balances it out.

 

I struggle to see a team that would trade a current mlb pitcher for a 2b, even one as solid as Dozier. That exists even less than a team that would give 1 or 2 pitchers for Ervin.

[Doomtints]

 

I struggle to see a team that would trade a current mlb pitcher for a 2b, even one as solid as Dozier. That exists even less than a team that would give 1 or 2 pitchers for Ervin.

 

But trading Dozier for a P prospect makes more sense. Santana can stick around while the prospect learns the ropes.

 

Trading Santana for a prospect is moving backward.

[drjim]

 

But trading Dozier for a P prospect makes more sense. Santana can stick around while the prospect learns the ropes.

 

Trading Santana for a prospect is moving backward.

 

I still don't like subtracting from a first place team for prospects. Perhaps they could pull off a three team trade.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Absolutely. But those are performance based things rather than theoretical trade returns that won't actually exist.

Both are theoretical scenarios. A return for Santana exists, the question is whether the Twins can make a deal happen. The same goes for all the above pitching scenarios and whether they work out in the Twins favor. 

[drjim]

 

Both are theoretical scenarios. A return for Santana exists, the question is whether the Twins can make a deal happen. The same goes for all the above pitching scenarios and whether they work out in the Twins favor. 

 

A return for Santana does exist, but not one that is going to put meaningful pitching in the org by next year. If you trade Santana, you are kicking back your window for a couple of seasons, and that is only if the acquired asset (or assets) work out. And for that to be successful even then, you would need most of that above list of scenarios (outside of Santana's continued success) to happen anyways.

 

This isn't either make a trade or a bunch of stuff has to happen scenario. A bunch of stuff is going to have to happen for sustained/significant success either way.

[Mike Sixel]

 

A return for Santana does exist, but not one that is going to put meaningful pitching in the org by next year. If you trade Santana, you are kicking back your window for a couple of seasons, and that is only if the acquired asset (or assets) work out. And for that to be successful even then, you would need most of that above list of scenarios (outside of Santana's continued success) to happen anyways.

 

This isn't either make a trade or a bunch of stuff has to happen scenario. A bunch of stuff is going to have to happen for sustained/significant success either way.

 

We agree on that last part for sure. Keeping Santana alone doesn't fix the team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Trading Dozier for pitching makes the most sense for this organization, but it's starting to feel like fitting a square peg into a round hole... No teams are out there looking for 2B, and willing to give the Twins what they need to make something happen. 

 

The elephant in the room.... Gordon. Would teams value him more being a top ~50 ish prospect who can play multiple positions? Sure, it would hurt to lose Gordon, but it's probably more realistic to get the pitching this team needs if he's the feature piece. 

Another reasonable way to look at the situation. Selling on Gordon this deadline might be selling high on the guy, though it might be hard to convince opposing GMs that is not the case.

 

I'm open to several different approaches but the approach it will be hardest to sell me on is "trade Ervin Santana, the one legitimate proven, above average pitcher in the organization".

[Doomtints]

 

I still don't like subtracting from a first place team for prospects. Perhaps they could pull off a three team trade.

 

I see your point, and a three team trade might do the trick.

 

We'll see.

[drjim]

 

I see your point, and a three team trade might do the trick.

 

We'll see.

 

I'm not too keen on trading Dozier, but would relent if they added a worthwhile mlb starter for the reasons mentioned above by you and others.

 

One of my hopes for the current front office is that they are more creative than what we saw under the much more methodical Ryan front office. This is the type of move that could work for this year and for the next couple seasons as well.

[KirbyDome89]

 

A return for Santana does exist, but not one that is going to put meaningful pitching in the org by next year. If you trade Santana, you are kicking back your window for a couple of seasons, and that is only if the acquired asset (or assets) work out. And for that to be successful even then, you would need most of that above list of scenarios (outside of Santana's continued success) to happen anyways.

 

This isn't either make a trade or a bunch of stuff has to happen scenario. A bunch of stuff is going to have to happen for sustained/significant success either way.

We'll disagree on the first sentence and agree on the last paragraph.

 

[kab21]

 

I struggle to see a team that would trade a current mlb pitcher for a 2b, even one as solid as Dozier. That exists even less than a team that would give 1 or 2 pitchers for Ervin.

 

I still don't like subtracting from a first place team for prospects. Perhaps they could pull off a three team trade.

In general yes but the need for pitching is so dire this year and next year that downgrading to Escobar and getting back 1-2 very good AA pitching prospects is defensible imo. I can understand your stance also but this team needs pitching really bad.